The Jake Peavy Razor
TOWER GROVE — When San Diego decided it had to explore trading Cy Young Award-winning ace Jake Peavy, the first hurdle to clear was the righthander’s no-trade clause. The Padres approached Peavy’s agent, Barry Axelrod, who told me the other night that Peavy, when requested supplied a list of five teams, all in the National League.
The St. Louis Cardinals, as has been reported, were on that list. They were one of Peavy’s Fave 5.
That alone does not mean there’s a connection.
Nothing sparked during a brief conversation between Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak and Padres GM Kevin Towers. Columnist Bernie Miklasz reported much earlier this week that the Cardinals are not a player for Peavy, and colleague Joe Strauss offered additional details about how the Cardinals and Padres are unlikely to swing a deal. The reaction — here, in message boards, over at Facebook, in my inbox, on the radio, etc. — to the Cardinals not being able to act on Peavy’s invitation for a trade is interesting. It may also be misdirected. The perception is there wasn’t a “spark” because the Cardinals are unwilling to part with what the Padres want.
Willing or not, it doesn’t matter right now. Cardinals don’t have what the Padres want.
They can’t trade what they don’t have.
Padres ace Jake Peavy throws a game-deciding pitch to Albert Pujols in the playoffs a few years back.
Occam’s Razor is a philosophical principle that states that the explanation of a phenomenom should include as few assumptions as possible. So many assumptions are coming into play with this Peavy reaction. Consider then … Peavy’s Razor: San Diego is trading an ace and looking for a young and inexpensive starting pitcher (and more) in return. Don’t clutter the statement with further assumptions or previously packed baggage. The Cardinals don’t have the Young Starting Pitcher to trade. The deal, right now, does not come down to greedily holding on to Colby Rasmus or overvaluing some other prospect. It boils down to not dealing, say, in the extreme, … Adam Wainwright.
Spoke to two people with knowledge of the Padres’ plans with Peavy and both said San Diego is looking to get a major league-ready starting pitcher in return for Peavy. I asked one of baseball sources if the Cardinals’ excess of outfielders was a conversation-starter, and the answer was: “Not at the moment, no.”
As San Diego Union-Tribune’s excellent beat writer Tom Krasovic wrote:
General Manager Kevin Towers has said young pitching likely will be the starting point for any trade involving Peavy, and no fewer than three of his Padres scouts watched Hanson overmatch prospects from other organizations.
The Hanson mentioned is Atlanta Braves’ prospect Tommy Hanson. He’s throwing in the Arizona Fall League, and Krasovic reports that the Padres had three scouts at one of the righthander’s recent starts. Hanson led all of the full-season minor-league starters with a 2.41 ERA, he struck out 163 in 138 innings and he threw a no-hitter in Class AA. Hanson, who throws in the mid-90s mph, is also pitching well in Arizona.
In his article about how thrilled Chipper Jones is about the possible acquisition of Peavy — Atlanta and Houston were probably atop Peavy’s five — AJC writer/blogger extraordinaire David O’Brien mentions Hanson and Charlie Morton. Fits the profile. Morton, 25, went 5-2, 2.05 ERA in Class AAA with 72 strikeouts in 79 innings. He pitched 74 2/3 innings in the majors, going 4-8, 6.15 ERA with some control troubles (41 walks, 48 Ks).
Atlanta’s GM Frank Wren told the Associated Press that he’d be reluctant to part with his prospects for Peavy. Roy Oswalt and Houston would love to add Peavy, but the Astros aren’t exactly brimming with pitching prospects to offer. Milwaukee, the New York Yankees and a few others have young starting pitchers with major-league experience — or on the brink of it — to talk with San Diego, but they don’t have the five-favorite blessing of Peavy, the unanimous Cy Young winner in 2007.
The Cardinals … well, they have a few pitchers.
Jake Peavy pitches this season at Busch Stadium, with Troy Glaus rounding third in the background.
The Cardinals’ surplus right now is on the right side of the bullpen (Jason Motte, Chris Perez) and in the outfield. Neither fits what the Padres want. The starting-pitcher price tag for Peavy is a tough one for the Cardinals to fill. Jaime Garcia, considered the organization’s top starting-pitcher prospect, is out for the year after Tommy John surgery. The guy who may have been the Cardinals’ Hanson, Adam Ottavino, has struggled this year, and is 0-1, 5.87 ERA in Arizona as he works to reclaim his mechanics. Mike Parisi, P.J. Walters and Clayton Mortensen may all pitch in the majors, but opinions of them vary from scout to scout, organization to organization. (One minor-league coach recently told me that Walters will start in the majors; a couple scouts told me this summer that they saw his ceiling as a No. 5 starter. Tomato. Tomahto.) Jess Todd and Mitchell Boggs both had strong seasons — Todd climbed three levels; Boggs was voted by the PCL managers as the best pitching prospect — but both profile as relievers to some scouts.
The match isn’t there.
It ain’t Rasmus. It’s starting pitching.
Towers recently told MLB.com that he wanted to “slow the process down.” He’s described this past few weeks as a fact-finding operation. There could be movement coming at the GM Meetings during the first week of November. The power of Peavy’s no-trade clause could handcuff the Padres’ ability to get the starting pitching they desire. That could significantly change the price tag. Maybe an outfielder or a reliever does start to interest the Padres. Right now, it’s what the Cardinals don’t have that dictates their ability to play in the Peavy Market. If the Padres’ wish list shifts, it’s what the Cardinals already have that could dictate their interest.
As described earlier this week in the PostCards entry and further clarified in Strauss’ article, the Cardinals have a lot of money already tied up in their rotation through the length of Peavy’s relatively friendly contract. After signing Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals are looking at having, possibly, $36 million dedicated to three starting pitchers in 2012. Peavy would add an additional $17 million. Chris Carpenter’s contract is guaranteed through 2011, and bringing on Peavy would mean dedicating almost $50 million to four pitchers, healthy or not. Guaranteed. Not exactly financial flexibility, especially when it comes to pitching. And that’s a completely different razor …
From this week’s mailbag:
PITCHER … 2009 … 2010 … 2011 … 2012 … 2013
Chris Carpenter … $14m … $14.5m … $15m … $15m* … n/s
Adam Wainwright … $2.6m … $4.7m … $6.5m … $9m* … $12m*
Kyle Lohse … $7.1m … $8.9m … $11.9m … $11.9m … n/s
Jake Peavy … $8m … $15m … $16m … $17m … $22m*
TOTALS … $31.7m … $43.1m … $49.4m … $52.9m … $34m
* — Option. N/S — Not signed.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
what agent would sign a guy (Wainwright) to a 5yr deal, making in 3years what he could make probably in one year thru arbitration next year?
Well done, D. The reactionary fan wants to sign multiple big names before the World Series ends. It’s a long off-season, too, & a little strategy goes a long way. I personally wouldn’t mind a Peavy at the head of the rotation, but only as long as it fits the bigger picture. We absolutely must have a closer when Spring Training starts. After that, we’ll see where our priorities stand. A monster free agent signing or trade would certainly be exciting, but not necessarily good for the team–just ask the Mariners (Carlos Silva), Cubs (Fukodome), Dodgers (Andruw Jones), etc. I would rather Mo make smart moves than lightning fast ones. By the way, has anyone mentioned trading for Joakim Soria?
To Wainwright’s agent: maybe making top dollar isn’t Adam’s top priority.
By the way, points to Derrick Goold for the gratuitous Ockham reference.
Or, as Occam put it, “entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem”
One man’s Occam is another person’s Ockham. Potato. Potatoe.
nice post, DG.
Would San Diego consider a Peavy for Lohse deal. If Lohse is all the splash our rotation is going to get this off-season, I wish they’d have waited and signed somebody better.
I assume the Friars want young and (relatively speaking) CHEAP.
Peavy is only 3 months older than Wainwright.
Kyle wouldn’t save them much this year, but he represents significant savings the next 3 years, and the contract is a year shorter. Sweeten the deal with what we do have, Anderson or an outfield prospect, and I could see it being mutually beneficial.
Quick point of order: Kyle Lohse has full no-trade rights as part of his new contract.
For now, we have the rest of the story. Thanks for clarifying this matter DG.
Two points are applicable (1) I would rather see the Cards obtain some left handed pitching both in the bullpen and a starter and (2)Kyle McClellen, though a reliver this year, is a legitimate 4 pitch starter prospect and the Cards have plenty of right hander depth in the bullpen.
Quick point of order: While there is some thought internally that Kyle McClellan not only has the pitches but the chutzpah to be a starting pitcher for the Cardinals … there is a question of durability. McClellan did tire at the end of a season, one in which he showed his health. Keep in mind that McClellan is now four years removed from the last time he pitched 100 innings in a season — and that was at Peoria. Teams looking for starting pitching — like San Diego and, according to reports, like Colorado for Matt Holliday — are going to want a little more security when it comes to durability. Four pitches are great. Thirty starts are better.
DG, I know the Padres are looking to take a load off of their payroll by trading Peavy, but is there any real chance that the Padres look to trade Peavy at the 2009 trading deadling or the 2009 offseason? I’m not sure if this would make sense for the Padres. Just a thought.
From the five teams listed by Peavy the one that makes the most sense would be the Braves. He is from Mobile, Alabama and the Braves have shown that they have a tendency to aquire players from that area. I’m not familiar with the Braves farm system, and what they would have to offer the Padres, but this would make a lot of sense.
With all the angst over the salaries paid to corporate executives, it’s odd that there’s not a single comment about the ridiculous amounts paid to these largely uneducated guys who couldn’t hold a job for a second in the “real” world unless they were trading on their sports names. THESE are the guys we need to go after if we’re going to raise taxes.
One thing that has not been mentioned, if Carpenter is unable to pitch due to injury, the Cardinals must have some form of insurance policy on him with such a big contract that he signed? That would make signing Peavy a little more digestible if Carp is done.
Peavy was hurt last season and I’m not sure I’d want to commit the dollars at this point given that. We have injuries and payments (Carpenter) for players who are likely not going to pitch very effectively. 3 year deals make sense and given what the Pad’s want, I’d tell Towers good luck.
What about McClellan? He did execellent as reliever this past year, but is projected to be a starter soon.
Too bad we can’t use Colby Rasmus as trade material for Peavy. Rasmus was hurt most of 2008 and didn’t see much action. The Cardinals asked him to play winter ball to prepare for spring training and he refused. I think we may have a J D Drew on our hands that is not a future fit with the Cardinals. Let’s trade him now and get a good starting pitcher. I lost a lot of respect for him with his refusal to play winter ball and be ready to go in the spring.
With a healty Carpenter we dont need to spend the mone on Peavy. Sign Looper for 2 years & worry about the bullpen ie closer.
The Cards may not have what the Padres want, but as the article states, others do. The objective would be to get Peavy here (assuming there is actually a desire to have him). Couldn’t there be a 3-way trade with Rasmus to get Peavy here? Isn’t there a team willing to trade young pitching, that San Diego would want, for Rasmus+? Have these avenues really been explored? Or are the Cards just saying there is no match with San Diego without investigating further options?
“Hey, Coach, I got a note!”
Dear Mr. Coach, Please excuse my son Jake from pitching this month because he has thrown too many sliders.
Signed, Epstein’s mother
Trading Wainwright for peavy would be not good. Wainwright has such a deep fan base and is a gutsy individual. I hope the cardinals realize that.
Sounds like the Cardinals would need to find a trading partner needing outfielders to get Peavy from San Diego.
My thoughts tend to agree with JIm. Rasmus seems to be injury prone. He apparently is already in the dog house with TLR. So the J.D. Drew mold appears to be on the assembly line for Rasmus. I say use this valuable asset to acquire a need while the value is high. Lets keep the club house atmosphere free of distractions, which (sadly to say)I believe distractions would occur if TLR and RAZ can’t make a positive transition. The way I see it is; the only way RAZ has a good chance of wearing the BIRDS ON THE BAT without distraction is if TLR retires after this year. With that said, the only way I would want TLR to retire is if he lost the fire to manage. TLR and DUNC are the face of the Cardinals (as far as management goes) and in their own way of doing things they know how to get the best out of their players when those players go along with their program.
Doug, as a lifelong Cardinal fan and living in KC, MO the past 30 years, the Royals part of me says KC would not trade Soria straight up for Peavy, not because of any inequities in the trade, but because a closer like Soria doesn’t come along that often, plus he is a four pitch plus pitcher and they are thinking of making him a starter in ‘09. I hope the Peavy deal comes through for the Cards, I’d love to have him in St. Louis.