The player to watch in the NLCS
TOWER GROVE — As Los Angeles Dodgers manager Joe Torre describes it: A few weeks ago, at Coors Field, he pulled his shortstop, Rafael Furcal, into a meeting to discuss whether or not the switch-hitter’s body would cooperate and let him be a factor in October. As MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and the player describe it, the tone of that meeting was a tad different: Furcal quit.
The Dodgers are not the only team pleased he reconsidered.
“We started chatting with him about the prospects of postseason play,” Torre said before the division series against the Chicago Cubs. “I just let him know obviously his career is the most important thing. What we’re trying to accomplish is important, too, but only if he’s healthy. And we just sort of took it a step at a time. … But he’s been a big lift for us.”
He would be a radical lift for the Cardinals.
Sure there’s the Manny Ramirez Experience and the Ryan Howard Walk-a-Thon and the Joe Torre Nostalgia to draw Cardinals fans to tonight’s start of the National League Championship Series in Philadelphia. But there is another reason to watch the Dodgers play Philadelphia for the NL pennant, and it isn’t to check in on Brad Lidge, who has completely recovered from his previous visit to the NLCS. Like the Cardinals themselves, watch with an eye on 2009.
Watch Rafael Furcal.
Rafael Furcal
Every game Furcal plays in the postseason he’s one more game removed from back surgery. One game closer to free agency. Every game he plays well, he certainly sweetens the deal he’ll command this winter. October offers an unexpected scouting opportunity for teams who are in need of an upgrade at shortstop for next season, be it Toronto, Detroit, Baltimore, maybe Cincinnati and yes, the Cardinals.
The amount of cash the Cardinals have coming off the book has been well-documented. Word is they plan to be “aggressive”, which in some corners has been translated as assertive with the pocketbook. As manager Tony La Russa has advocated the addition of an impact bat, Cesar Izturis hits free agency and Adam Kennedy has requested a trade, the confluence of events have opened up the way for the Cardinals to improve the play and the production from their middle infield. In the past, the Cardinals have had a few internal advocates for Miguel Tejada. While not the level or the same as Tejada, Furcal, if healthy, is a presence at the position like Tejada and he will be the premiere shortstop available this winter.
These playoffs will answer if he’s healthy.
At his best, Furcal offers a dynamic tonic for the Cardinals. The switch-hitter with speed is a natural leadoff hitter, a skilled shortstop and he has the power threat that changes the look of the Cardinals lineup by increasing its depth. Stolen bases? Check. Respectable power? Check. Ability to get on-base in front of Albert Pujols and score from first on an extra-base hit? Double-check.
Furcal has twice hit better than .290 in his career with Atlanta and LA, and he has a career on-base percentage of .352. Of the 15 hitters who had enough plate appearances at leadoff to qualify (approx. 502) for a batting title, Furcal’s on-base percentage would have ranked 12th. (Skip Schumaker was seventh at .370.) But he’s also stolen at least 40 bases three times. And Furcal’s .412 career slugging would have ranked 12th.
He also plays shortstop.
“He puts pressure on a defense,” two-team teammate Greg Maddux told Gurnick in the article linked above. “You don’t know if he’ll slug, slap or bunt. He has excellent speed. He can steal second or third. He puts pressure on pitchers. Defensively, he’s got a lot of range and an excellent arm. He can take away hits. He’s fun to play with. I always enjoyed having him behind me. He’s always been one of my favorite players. Pitchers love guys that catch the ball.”
Furcal in the field, in flight.
Furcal, a former Rookie of the Year with Atlanta, missed 125 games this season because a bulging disc in his back required surgery to repair. The injury interrupted what was a career year-like start for Furcal. At the time he went on the disabled list, Furcal was hitting .366/.448/.597. In April, batting leadoff for the Dodgers, Furcal hit .367 and had 15 extra-base hits in 109 at-bats, including 11 doubles. He also scored 25 runs and stole seven bases that month.
Then he was gone. Lost to back trouble and then the back surgery.
When he returned to baseball activities in September, he struggled to feel right about his legs. They lagged behind. And as Torre said at the start of the NLDS: “We just sort of took it a step at a time.
I think the legs were the last thing that came for him as far as being comfortable.” Furcal decided not to quit, not to get out of the way of the Dodgers in mid-September and now he’s a factor in October, a spark for the Dodgers and a magnet for teams needing a shortstop. He got in four games before the start of the season, and then he went 4-for-12 with four runs scored against the Cubs in the NLDS.
He’s getting noticed:
Furcal is Healthy and Dangerous, Philadelphia Daily News … “Rafael Furcal, who could very well be a key to the upcoming National League Championship Series between the Phillies and Dodgers. Or, put it this way: The comparison between what Furcal and Jimmy Rollins can do as leadoff hitters in their respective lineups really might end up being more telling than the sexier comparison between the Dodgers’ Manny Ramirez and the Phillies’ Ryan Howard.”
Remember Me? Furcal Back in Leading Role, OC Register … “His presence at the top of the batting order not only gave the Dodgers a viable offensive threat but a psychological one as well. “I told you I would be back this season,” Furcal said softly while his teammates were dousing each other with champagne and beer this past Saturday night at Dodger Stadium.”
Furcal Back in a Leading Role, LA Times … “As for the pressure of being thrust into the team’s starting lineup in the playoffs after not playing for almost five months, Furcal isn’t feeling it. ‘Pressure?’ Furcal said. ‘This is my eighth time in the postseason. I don’t feel pressure.’”
For any team that has dispatched a scout to watch him in the NLCS or is just tuning in from afar, the back will be a chief concern. Furcal has missed time in a couple seasons because of back soreness, back stiffness, back spasms and now back surgery. He is coming to the end of a three-year, $39-million deal, and he’ll turn 31 later this month. His $13-million price tage seems reasonable — if he’s healthy. The length of the deal would be the most interesting part of any deal.
A few years, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti signed Furcal as his first big move in the big chair, and he edged the Chicago Cubs to do so. This winter, there’s been speculation that Toronto will court Furcal. There’s the possibility the Cubs, recovering from another October thud, will add him to their growing collection of All-Stars. The White Sox might need a shortstop if the second-best and healthiest free-agent shortstop, Orlando Cabrera, signs elsewhere. Baltimore, Detroit (who have an option on Edgar Renteria) and a few others also have a need at short.
The Cardinals have expressed an interest in bringing back two in-house options for the middle infield: Cesar Izturis and Felipe Lopez. The Cardinals’ crush on Lopez appears to be mutual, but he’s more an option as the everyday second baseman or utility fielder than at shortstop. The Cardinals and Izturis are both open to a reunion, all because of how agile Izturis is in the field. Considering an upgrade at the position, however, is not out of the question — it just may be out of the budget.
Furcal won’t have to settle for a deal, not at all. There aren’t many players who can do what he does at the position he plays. There aren’t too many players who can radically jolt a lineup — a lineup like the Cardinals’, for example — like Furcal could, if healthy.
Just watch and see if he is. Watch and see how he does.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
If he can be had on a 3 yr deal, maybe the money makes sense. But considering the Lohse and Carpenter commitments, this team can’t afford an albatross contract that will get in the way of extending Albert. He signed for 3 years, $39 million before 2006. Will he get more b/c of the market and need, or will he get less b/c of his age and injury history?
That’s the question that October could answer. Not impossible that Furcal could score a two-year deal with an option, one that sweetens the value to buy the right to an option. It’s also possible that the market pushes his price higher. Furcal has at least four games to help his value, a bit. We’ve seen it before …
Furcal had a .357 BA. this season, but played only 31 games, this of course, is a very small sample size. He has always struggled to hit .300, in fact he has hit .300 only one other time in his career. That was in 2006. Prior to his 2006 season his highest BA was .295 in his rookie year of 2000. Everything in between 2000 and 2006 was very average. He hit: .275, .275,.292,. 279, and .284. So obviously he has never been a reliable .300 hitter. You couple this with the fact that he is injury prone and has never played a full major league season then there is some concern.
However, I think that the one thing in favor of Furcal would be that he brings more speed then any of the other options at SS. DG, what other FA/players on the trading block are a possibility? What would it take to get Brian Roberts? Again, sorry if I used to many numbers in wondering whether Furcal can hit .300 over the course of 162 games. I’ll watch Furcal closely as the Dodgers playoffs dreams remain alive.
You cannot only look at batting average, but — as mentioned in the entry — you also cannot ignore it. Furcal plays shortstop. He’s speedy. There is an element of extra-base power there that is more than a flash. Dealing for Brian Roberts adds the offense, but he’s going to be costly and he plays second base. Would Roberts-Izturis be the same as, say, Lopez-Furcal? The reality of either is as debatable as the production provided by either tandem.
Some free agents in the middle infield: Orlando Cabrera, probably Renteria, Furcal, David Eckstein (prob. at second base), Omar Vizquel, Juan Uribe, Joey Cora, Adam Everett, Mark Grudzielanek and Orlando Hudson, who is coming off a wrist injury.
dg
I see no sign that the Cardinals would out bid other interested team for a player with health consideration. This seems more like some fantasy team dream acquisition. Frankly, I think the Cards will find plenty of competition just to sign Lopez. I don’t think Boras is too happy with the Cards right now. Its unlikely he will soften his position till late in the winter. I’m sure the Cards will be sitting on the fence on this one…..again.
Didn’t Detroit already say they weren’t exercising the option on Renteria?
I pushed for Renteria at the trade deadline and most people said he is washed up. I still believe that he is comparable offensively to Furcal and sure handed in the field eve if his range has decreased. I also think he is more affordable and knows what LaRussa would expect coming in.
Why is Borad unhappy with us? We just gave his boy Lohse a 4 year deal. If anything, I would think that Boras might be developing a working relationship with the Cards, with Rick Ankiel being the next of his guys we deal with? I have no problem with Boras when he is working out a win-win deal, like Lohse. And Weaver did have the opportunity to sign here without Boras putting the kabosh on it…he steered Jeff elsewhere when January came around and we had yet to make a serious offer. Thank God Weaver’s is in Cleveland’s system and not ours (but thanks for ‘06).
DG,
The Cards have pulled off surprises before. What is the maximum contract you could see the Cards offering Furcal, in both years and dollars?
That would be under the presumption that they see the rotation as fit and decide not to blow major dollars on a guy like Fuentes…
That back surgery scares me.
I’d rather use the $$ on Brian Fuentes, and trade prospects for Brian Roberts. I’d bring back Cesar Izturis, and give him as many innings as possible. I gather that the stat-heads question the value of a good-field/no-hit SS, because of the runs produced/prevented figures. But I’ve got to think that a slick SS gives a huge psychological boost to a pitching staff over 162 games.
Lopez and/or Miles in reserve.
Why does it always just seem like a given that shortstop is the middle infield position the Cardinals need to improve offensively? With all the good options there likely to be expensive, why not try to trade for say, Florida’s Dan Uggla? I don’t know if Florida’s looking to move him, but the if Cards could offer a package of Rasmus/Anderson/pitcher, would the Marlins at least have to give it a thought?
For the money that will be required to get talent, who is riskier in terms of being injury prone and over all reliable in their performance, Renteria or Furcal? Four games is a small sample to gauge viable reliability. Besides our pitcher’s, I’m tired of seeing the starting 8 RED BIRD’S on the DL. Don’t you think the Cards should try to minimize those risk after all they have been through with injuries? Injuries have killed our chances at playing ball in October. Furcal is a great talent, IF HE IS HEALTHY. But, he’s not getting any younger in the next three years. Will Renteria get re-energized if he puts the Birds back on his Bat? The Cards need to upgrade their offense. Frankly I just do not care how they do it. But they need to get reliable, viable talent!
Yes. Reports out of Detroit state that the Tigers have no plan to exercise Renteria’s option, and you can look at his performance for the obvious reason. There was some sentiment entering the offseason here that Renteria would get a look, somewhere, at third base.
As for what the Cardinals are willing to spend on Furcal … There will be a better sense of that after this month and the Cardinals plan for the winter takes focus. Track record says the Cardinals go bargain shopping when it comes to the middle infield, with the exception of Adam Kennedy in recent seasons. And that didn’t work. The push for Tejada implies that at least some corners of the Cardinals brass would like to see a costly upgrade to the middle infield. There are some intriguing fits this winter, and there appears to be money to work with …
Cards have no chance at Furcal. Their “big” offseason “acquisition” was made when they signed Lohse. I do not expect the Cards to sign another free agent for anywhere near the dollars Furcal will command. He’ll get at least a 3 year deal for $45MM - that’s out of the Cards range.
Tejada??????? I’m new here Derick, and pretty well informed. Are you doing the “fantasy” work for Mo, or are you actually sees signs of Major Moves. You will have to show me the money. I think its very unlikely that we are high bidder on Lopez, let alone breaking Tejada loose from Houston. It would be great if these rumors were true, but it feels like you are doing someones job for them.
DG- Do you see the Cardinals resigning Izturis and announcing him the starting SS again? If so, it would show a committment to the same lack of consistent run production that we had last year. A lot of the bullpen woes were hurt by the fact that we couldn’t add on to leads and consistently produce up and down the lineup. Furcal or Roberts would allow us to trade Skip or relegate him back to the bench and let Mather and Duncan have a power platoon in left along with power from Ludwick and Ankiel. How is that not an attractive option? Also, is Tejada a serious possibility? I would love a lineup that includes Pujols, Ankiel, Ludwick, Glaus, Tejada, and a healthy Duncan/Mather. We would have no problems scoring with that lineup.
C’mon … you’d trade DOWN from Schumaker to a guy who has a lower .OBP? How in the world does that make sense?
White Sox won’t be in the Furcal sweepstakes because they have Alexi Ramirez as their heir-apparent at SS. Orlando Cabrera is going to be free as is Edgar Renteria and Eckstein. Just like after 2004 when all three did the free agency rotation which was essentially a three way trade (with the Cards getting the best of that deal). I’ll believe it when I see it that the Cards will enter the bidding for Furcal…I’d say more realistically would be them entering the Cabrera sweepstakes. I’m also surprised no one has started the “Bring Back Eckstein” talk. Anyone still interested or did his lower numbers this year scare you away? Also his lack of range?!
ank.dunc.rasmus-You stated that you’d like to have Duncan back in left, considering him an “attractive option”? I’m sorry, but like other Cardinals fans, I’ve seen enough of his defensive escapades in the OF. It’s comparable to asking people if they’d prefer a cold over the flu. The answer is, neither! I’ll stick with Schumaker and his ability to play defense. I’m sure I could get the pitching staff to agree.
Mr. Hero,
The key phrase on Tejada would be “in the past.” For example: When the Orioles were actively seeking to trade Tejada there were members of the Cardinals brass who encouraged the front office to explore a move — a move that Houston eventually made, at a cost. Again, “in the past.”
Thanks,
dg
There is zero chance that Furcal ends up with the birds. It will take at least a three year deal with no less than 14 million per. That would not be a wise investment at all for the Cardinals, particulary with his history of injury. Makes more sense in going for pitching, an offensive upgrade at 2nd base (much less coslty than the SS position),and resigning Izturis.
Thanks for the clarification D.G.
I like the list of middle IF free agents, and Furcal would look great in the Cards’ lineup. But let’s not forget that the Cards also have some good, young talent that will surely be attractive to some teams that might want to rebuild. Someone earlier mentioned Uggla…but where are the Mets headed after their third straight heart-wrenching collapse? Do the Cards have what it takes to pry Jose Reyes away from them?
Why Tejada? He is 34 years old, and had a down year this season. He played 158 games, he hit 13 HRs, had a .284 BA., and drove in 66 runs. Not quite the type of production that is worth his 6 year 72 million dollar contract.