What if … Pujols had Howard’s RBI chances?
SOUTH GRAND — A few years ago, the biggest challenge to Albert Pujols’ MVP candidacy was a slugger in the National League East who had big numbers in home runs and RBIs, but couldn’t quite match Pujols when it came to just about everything else.
So, we’ve seen this before.
Back in 2005, Andruw Jones hit 51 home runs and drove in 128 RBIs — both numbers that surpassed El Hombre’s totals — yet hit .263. The numbers were more profound when you drilled down into the RBI total. Jones led the NL with 184 at-bats with runners in scoring position. In those situations, he hit .207 (.207!) and slugging .386. Pujols, by contrast had 44 fewer at-bats with runners in scoring position (RISP). Put simply: Jones had more RBIs not because he was a better run producer — he actually struggled by comparison — but because he had far more opportunities to drive in runs.
A similar scenario exists this season with Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard have 146 RBIs and 48 home runs to outdistance Pujols’ power numbers, 37 and 116. That leads to today’s question, continuing a week of speculative autopsies and marking the day after ballots were due for NL MVP voters: What If … Albert Pujols had Ryan Howard’s RBI opportunities?
The attempt to answer this question revealed a statistic I found uncanny:
ALBERT PUJOLS HAD MORE RBIs (116) THAN ABs WITH RISP (115)
Pujols finished in the top five in RBIs this season with a late binge that gave him his eighth consecutive season of at least 100 RBIs. While 37 of those RBIs could have come with nobody on base and still been 37 RBIs — one for each homer, of course — Pujols was able to collect those RBIs with only the 59th-most at-bats with runners in scoring position. He tied Cincinnati rookie Joey Votto with 115, and Votto wasn’t a regular with the Reds early this season.
One of the big reasons, obviously, was because opponents walked Pujols when first was open.
With runners in scoring position (RISP), Pujols had only 12 strikeouts this season, but walked 51 times.
Here is the list of the NL hitters with the top 10 most RISP at-bats (batting average):
- David Wright, NYM … 189 (.243)
- Garrett Atkins, COL … 187 (.225)
- Carlos Beltran, NYM … 185 (.286)
- James Loney, LA … 181 (.304)
- Jeff Francoeur, ATL … 177 (.192)
- Ryan Howard, PHI … 175 (.320)
- Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD … 173 (.254)
- Troy Glaus, STL … 171 (.263)
- Chase Utley, PHI … 170 (.271)
- Jorge Cantu, FLA … 169 (.272)
Locked in that list, right there at No. 6, is the target of today’s question. Howard had 175 at-bats with runners in scoring position partially because he was surrounded by guys who get on base and produce runs — from Jimmy Rollins and Utley before him to Pat Burrell behind him. Really, only Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez was in as enviable a position this season at Howard, and neither of them appear on that list (in fact, where are the Cubs on that list? what does that say about their offense, the best in the league?).
Howard hit .320 with RISP, reached base .439 and slugged .589 with RISP. He struck out 54 times and walked 41 times with RISP. Of his 146 RBIs, 61.6 percent (or 90) of them came with RISP.
Pujols hit .339 with RISP, reached base .523 and slugged .638 with RISP. As mentioned, he struck out 12 times and walked 51 times with RISP. Of his 116 RBIs, 64.7 percent (or 75) came with RISP.
Figuring out how Pujols would have done with Howard’s 175 at-bats vs. his 115 takes some rates.
Howard had 56 hits with RISP, and he produced 1.61 RBIs per hits with RISP (RBI/HwRISP). Pujols had 39 hits with RISP, and he produced 1.92 RBI/HwRISP. Using those numbers, and the above averages, it’s easy to figure Pujols would have had 59 hits in 175 RISP AB, and at his rate of production driven in 114 RBIs in those at-bats. His new total would be:
155 RBIs
It’s difficult, however, to apply Pujols’ rate of production to Howard’s at-bats. See, Pujols was able to produce nearly two RBIs for every RISP hit because opponents would often only pitch to him if there was enough runners on base to force them to. If a base was open, he’d get the walk. So, consider that and refigure Pujols’ numbers using Howard’s rate of production.
That would give him 95 RBIs with runners in scoring position and a total of … 136 RBIs.
Not enough to take over the lead, but plenty to chomp into that distance MVP voters have pointed to as a consideration when they rank their selections for the award.
But then, we’ve seen something like this race before. In 2005. We know how that turned out.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
He’ll probably lose out for MVP like he did several times when steroid Barry Bonds kept beating him even though Pujols was a better all around player every year.
Oh well, every baseball fan knows who a team would pick if they had a chance to pick Albert or Howard to start a new team.