Wow….30+ million on payroll last year that did not contribute…not including Izzy in the second half….which would be 38 mil…..that is 13m more then the Rays.

17M is not going to get you a prime SS/2B, A SP and 2 LH relievers. Its not going to allow you to go get Peavy or Brian Roberts either even if you do give up Rasmus.

Best options seem -
Edgar - 5 million
Ohlman - 6 million (with years to get that price)
Looper - 6 millon (2 years) - because you can’t afford anybody else out there and you need innings with Carp questionable.
Izzy - 2/3 mill with incentives? (Because - see above)

Bullpen - Perez, Mott, Kinney, Ohlman, Kyle, Franklin, and healthy Izzy is pretty tough. Johnson coming back? I worry about Kyles innings last year.

Starting 5? (this is the same staff that got your 4th place
1. Carpenter?? (See 5A, B & C)
2. Adam
3. Lohse
4. Wellemeyer (can he hold up another year starting - see elbow last year)
5. Pinero (yikes)
5A - Looper (????????)
5B - Franklin (if your happy with your bullpen?)
5C - Brad Thompson
5D - Ankiel

$17-21 mill, huh?
How do you see that spent most efficiently?
My idea:
Edgar - $6 mill
Rhodes - $1.5 mill
Ohman - $3.5 mill
That leaves us with $6 - $10 mill to spend on a 2B and another starter (pending Carp’s health and if we choose to pursue another starter)
I’m not a Hudson fan, per say, considering the $ that he will demand. There’s not much talent at that position, though. Do we pursue a 2B via trade? Johnson from ATL may be a good fit. What is he worth? Ankiel?
What about other SP options? Brad Penny? Randy Johnson? We will have to wait about a month before we get another update on Carp, so it will probably be after that before we address that issue, if we do at all.
Thoughts…

piniero’s contract makes me physically ill

I don’t see the love and price folks are willing to give up for Kelly Johnson (giving up Rick) when Miles can hold the fort until your AAA work out. Miles is not unlike Lemke was for the Braves in the 90’s. Rick is great D and 35 dinger guy. He is Ryan Braun with D….keep em - unless you can pry Roy Halladay away….

Whats the differance between the Pirates and the Cardinals. The Pirates dont pay bad “relief” pitchers and injured roid heads 20 million dollars

“Rick is great D and 35 dinger guy. He is Ryan Braun with D”

That is the most ludicrous thing I have read on any STLToday message board.

Rick Ankiel is more Ron Gant than Ryan Braun.

It bothers me that we have to be concerned about the $4 million increase for Carpenter. We haven’t got anything from him for the last 2 years. It’s getting to be Joe Magrane territory here. Always named, but rarely used. I don’t know about anyone else, but that Cy Young holds little weight with me anymore, its in the past. We need to be addressing the hole that is in our rotation with his impact gone. We need to be putting a top tier pitcher on this roster. I know were not in the Sabithia market (understandably) or even the Derek Lowe market (too old, for the money). But why not A.J. Burnett, he has stayed healthy recently and can be a stopper that can help anchor the rotation with a healthy Wainwright.

If not, at least another mid level starter, like the Loshe pickup from last year. Our rotation is not ready to win even a wild card now. Keeping around Lopez and grabbing Furcal would be best in this situation. It gives lineup flexibility, which I don’t believe Renteria brings to this team. We need to get faster and better defensively up the middle. Renteria doesn’t help in either one of those categories.

They need to be aggressive with Will Ohman and find something to close out the games. Hoffman would be ideal, since Perez or Motte only need a year or two of seasoning to be ready, but I’d take a flier on Brandon Lyon too. Just as long as the Isringhausen days are behind us.

We may not have a lot of money to play with, but we have to splurge some to get competitive again. Or we will remain the 3rd to 4th place team we ended up being, because we were content or not willing to be aggressive enough to bring in the impact players are division peers did.

Take a note from Obama, get the Change We Need.

Am I wrong here?
Chris Perez did not make the minimum, $390,000, in 2008.
I’m not sure how they prorate it, but basically he pitched
one month out of six, so his salary should be around $65,000 for ‘08.

And that should go for Motte too.

And they both — assuming they make the 25-man roster next spring — should make only the minimum: $400,000. So the “change” column should include an increase for both players of $335,000, if I’m correct.

If I’m wrong, let me know.

who does dewitt think his fooling. the cardinals fans line his pockets and he continues to put limits on what he is willing to spend. i’m not suggesting that the cardinals spend like the yankees or boston, but he nearly has the fans convinced that they can’t spend like the cubs or dodgers. the fan attendance is still in the top 5 and merchandise sales have to be out of this world( i have never been to busch and not seen a sea of red). the cardinals have no excuse not to spend at least 135-140 million a year.

I don’t get the Pineiro signing. He looked good when the Cards dealt for him at the trade deadline in 2007, but since then and prior to his time as a Cardinal what has he done?

His W-L records since the 2004 season:

2004: 6-11

2005: 7-11

2006: 8-13

2007: 14-10

2008: 7-7

He is also injury prone, and with the status of Carp unknown, you need a reliable arm in the rotation. I know Looper has only started for two seasons, but in his short time as a starter he has proven that he can give you 30 starts a year. The Cards need an arm they can count on and Looper may just be the Cards best shot to find and sign reliable starter, without trading big time prospects. Then you could bring Boggs in as the 5th starter.

As far as the middle infield goes, I think the Cards are going to have to make a deal. I’ve heard the suggestions of letting some of the AAA talent develop, but I really don’t see any middle infielder in the minor leagues developing into a reliable everyday SS. Kozma probably has the best shot at developing into a reliable SS, but he is still a year or two away, and even though he will probably become a reliable defender his bat is still a huge question. I say resign Lopez to a one year deal, and bring back Edgar for a the season, and then at that point you can see what the farm system has to offer. Really there just isn’t the kind of talent at middle infield where you can say “let us wait and see what we have in the middle infield”. There isn’t a great middle infield prospect in the system.

Just to clarify my last comment:

My point was that the middle infield will probably never produce a solid middle infielder with the likes of Green Kozma and Hoffpauir being the top middle infield prospects. So I don’t think waiting for Green to develop or Hoffpauir to start hitting again, can happen. The Cards have some depth in their system, but they can’t wait for a SS to develop much longer. Hoffpauir’s and Greene’s time to make a move is ticking away. Just wanted to clear up what my point was.

Now that I think about it, you can’t leave out Nico Vasquez out of the picture, but still he is probably a year or two away…

DG, do you think Edgar would be interested in signing a one year deal or at this point in his career would he be looking for a multiyear deal?

Hey DG,

what about Placido Polanco? Are the Tigers fielding offers? Are the Cards interested in his services? Seems like a grand fit to me. Cost efficient, good defense, hits for average and is familiar with the organization. What would it take to get him if they are indeed interested?

Your thoughts…

Here is one reason why we will not be throwing around our money: There is this guy named Albert Pujols whos contract is up in a couple of years. We might want to hold on to the money that he will be able to command and keep him in STL. Not throw around our money to these pitchers who are commanding $20MM a year or any second tier free agents. Rhodes? Are you kidding me? Rather, use what we have in our own system. Garcia is a GOOD lefty, Tyler Johnson will be back who is a GREAT lefty and Kinney will be back. RACK BAR!!

Here is one reason why we will not be throwing around our money: There is this guy named Albert Pujols whos contract is up in a couple of years. We might want to hold on to the money that he will be able to command and keep him in STL. Does everybody else agree? Thats what I thought. Not throw around our money to these pitchers who are commanding $20MM a year or any second tier free agents. Rhodes? Are you kidding me? Rather, use what we have in our own system. Garcia: GOOD lefty, Tyler Johnson: will be back who is a GREAT lefty and Kinney: will be back. RACK BAR DELUXE!!

So…is 100 Mil really 100 Mil?? What about the insurance payments the cards receive on injured players?? What Carp made the last two years vs. what the cards really spent are surely two different numbers. Derrick??

Garcia isn’t a LHRP option. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in Sept. and will miss the 2009 season.

No chatter about Placido Polanco. He’s a cornerstone in Detroit. Obviously the likely addition of Trever Miller today — pending physical — will add a salary to above. He made $1.6 million last season, with a $400,000 buyout of a $2 million option. So, think around the same cost. The year(s) will be interesting when the deal is finished.

As for insurance. This is tricky, and I know a lot of people ask about it a lot. Insurance on contracts works a lot like insurance for anything else. You don’t take out a policy on the tent. You take it out on the house. You don’t insure your … well, I won’t torture the analogy any further. You get the idea. Like any insurance, insurance contracts …

… considers history (esp. injury history)
… has a deductible.
… does not cover the entire cost of the contract/etc.

With contract insurance there is also a certain amount of time a player must be out before the insurance kicks in. I’ll speak directly from experience: A few years ago, Chris Pronger missed an entire season with the Blues because of a wrist injury. The Blues had insurance on his contract. Let’s use the facts of the Pronger situation on a $10-million year baseball player. First he has to miss 90 days before the insurance clicks in. Once that happens, then the remainder of his salary is covered past the deductible. Say, 80 percent.

OK, so Mr. $10m is paid for those 90 days — or roughly half the season — before the insurance kicks in. That’s $5 paid by the team. Then the insurance covers 80 percent of the rest — or a grand total of $4 million on a $10 million contract. And that’s without a history of injury.

The smaller contracts aren’t worth the premiums on that kind of coverage.

Hope that helps,

dg
-30-

Every time Pinero collects a paycheck, a little kid starts dreaming he could be more like Zambrano.

Hey RUM

“That is the most ludicrous thing I have read on any STLToday message board.

Rick Ankiel is more Ron Gant than Ryan Braun.”

I’ve said more ludicrous then that…..Ryan Braun was par with Ryan Lud this year and if you compare Ricks AB’s this year to Braun’s rookie year - Rick is in the same category as Braun except in AVE…and MUCH better D (even then GANT). Rick’s power is impressive and not to be understated…1st full year in ML

Duncan will be arb eligible via super 2 status - add $500K for that.
Thompson will be arb eligible — add $500K for that.

Did Villone really end up making $2 million last year after incentives? His base was only $650K I believe.

DG,

“Asked if the economic conditions could guide their payroll, Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III said earlier this offseason the he expects the payroll to remain the same “if not grow, a little.””

I believe Mr. D was asked this question in September, maybe even early October. Economic conditions for next year and even the year after are now expected to be a lot worse than anyone was anticipating just a couple months ago. I am a season ticket holder (split with another guy) and I want to see a competitive team as much as anyone but the business aspect of the economy that Mr. D is currently looking at, I believe, will make him go back on his word. And I hate to say it but he will be right in doing so. I think the economy is bad enough that you will see one or two franchises fold. Franchises!

I hope the Mr. D plays things close to the vest. I would rather see long term competitiveness than I would a good 2009.

Cario,

First good call on Thompson and Duncan (who rounds up to three years of experience now, after the time on the DL), those estimates could be aimed a little higher. Though adding $500,000 would be quite a leap. Tracking those early arb or super-two are tricky. Remember Molina missed it by a few days, and Flores hit it — and thus got a two-year deal out of it. I split the difference, though with each they could be lower. Remember playing time does factor in with service time.

Villone’s base salary when he signed was about $600,000. Subsequent gumshoe work by Strauss discovered and reported in the paper that Villone made a final salary of $2 million this season.

When at all possible, I went with the final salary from 2008. Though, the team does also factor in signing bonuses split over the years of the contract — and also signing bonuses they are still paying. So, technically, a portion of Scott Rolen’s signing bonus should be added in as well. There is also a payment coming up on Rolen’s contract in 2010.

Excellent comments,

dg
-30-

Joepa,

I asked that question after the economic meltdown. In fact, I asked the question during an interview about how the economy could impact the team, the major-league payroll and, most of all, the construction of Ballpark Village. (There are still bonds to be issued.) So, the context of the comment was late October. The story that came of that interview and many others was published on Oct. 24.

Best,

dg
-30-

GO FOR BROKE, trade and lock up Peavy for four years. Compared to other pitchers he’s a steal, and he wants to come here.
Regarding Carpenter, hope for the best but plan for the worse.

But a Wainwright/Peavy as a one two punch, with Lohse and hopefully Carpenter will make this the best starting rotation in the NL.

Besides- Cards paid

Loshe 41 million over 4 years for a
(career) 78-80 4.67 ERA
(last year) 1.30whip 3.78 ERA (his best)

Trade anyone but Albert and Rasmus for
Peavy -
(career) 86-62 1.19whip .232BAA 3.25 ERA
(last year) 10-11 1.18whip .229BAA 2.85 ERA

Jake Peavy
2009 opening day age: 27
2009 salary: $11 million
2010 salary: $15 million
2011 salary: $16 million
2012 salary: $17 million

This guy is a stud on a bad team, MO has to work a deal.
Remember how the D-Backs won with Schilling/Johnson or the Braves with Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux. It’s a no-brainer. Get three starters with Wainwright, Peavy and Carpenter and let TLR change the line-up every night and win with pitching.

It’s also the best thing to do fiscally. Give your team a chance to win 4 out of every 5 games - and the fans will hit the turn-style.

I even promise to buy a Peavy shirt.

starting rotation-
1-Peavy
2-Wainwright
3-Carp
4-Lohse
5-Joe the Plummer for all I care

See ya Lugnut and Skippy, throw in 5 other players, I don’t care, just get Peavy for 4 years and win a world series.

get the word out!