TOWER GROVE — With the subtraction of the salaries for Mark Mulder, Braden Looper, Scott Spiezio, Juan Encarnacion and Jason Isringhausen (though possibly only briefly for him), the St. Louis Cardinals have a raw total of about $29 million in expiring contracts from their 2008 payroll. But presented with the question on whether the Cardinals had $25 million to even $30 million of flexibility for the coming season, an organization official was direct with his answer:

“You might want to check your math.”

Good idea.

Pooling the salaries of the Cardinals’ 25-man roster, the handful of players on the disabled list, and some estimates of the prorated additions to the team, the Cardinals spent approximately $105.89 million on the salaries of 34 players. (For example, Chris Perez didn’t make his full $390,000 big-league salary, but in concert with the other relievers and minor leaguers who came up through the year about that much was spent on the spot on the roster. I.e., Jason Motte, Joe Mather, etc.) Of those 34 players, 11 either are or are expected to be free agents.

Those 11 salaries lopped from the books for 2009 equal approximately $39.7 million.

But before considering that as a straight cut from the payroll, first the buyouts must be considered. Mulder and the released Spiezio are owed a combined $1.6 million for their rejected 2009 options.

And then there are the players due raises, like Chris Carpenter from $10.5 million to $14 million or Ryan Ludwick who is arbitration eligible after a career season. Those upticks in salary slice considerably into the “dry powder” the Cardinals have if they expect to keep the 2009 payroll around $100 million, give or take a few injuries.

Asked if the economic conditions could guide their payroll, Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III said earlier this offseason the he expects the payroll to remain the same “if not grow, a little.”

When all those factors are calculated and some 2009 salaries are estimated, the closer total for the cash still available is around $20.6 million. According to a couple people in the organization there are scenarios — arbitration losses, new contracts — where it is around $17 million. Two new lefties could quickly knock that down to $11 million.

There’s still enough to alter and improve a roster in need of reinforcements.

The best way available to “check the math” is dig into the contracts themselves and track who is gone, who is due a raise and estimate just what some of the raises could be (via renewals or arbitration). Using reports in the Post-Dispatch, many of them by senior baseball writer Joe Strauss, and other sources on the existing contracts, I generated a payroll matrix for the blog here. These are base salaries, not including bonuses but Felipe Lopez’s has been adjusted to reflect how the Cardinals got him. Below it there is further discussion about the arbitration cases and how to estimate what it could cost the Cardinals if, say, Ludwick does take them to arbitration.

THE ESTIMATED PAYROLL MATRIX

PLAYER … 2008 Salary … 2009 Salary … CHANGE

Yadier Molina, C … $1.75 million … $3.25 million … + $1.5 million

Jason LaRue, C … $850,000 … $950,000 … + $100,000

Albert Pujols, 1B … $16 million … $16 million … n/c

Adam Kennedy, 2B … $3.5 million … $4 million … + $500,000

Troy Glaus, 3B … $12.5 million … $11.25 million … - $1.25 million

Cesar Izturis, SS … $2.85 million … Free Agent … - $2.85 million

Aaron Miles, INF … $1.4 million … Arb. est: $2 million … + $600,000

Felipe Lopez, INF … est $130,000 … Free Agent … - $130,000

Brendan Ryan, INF … $393,000 … est. $400,000 … + $7,000

Rick Ankiel, OF … $900,000 … Arb. est: $2.4 million … + $1.4 million

Ryan Ludwick, OF … $411,000 … Arb. est: $3.3 million … + $2.89 million

Skip Schumaker, OF … $396,000 … est. $475,000 … + $79,000

Brian Barton, OF … $390,000 … est. $400,000 … + $10,000

Adam Wainwright, RHP … $750,000 … $2.6 million … + $1.85 million

Kyle Lohse, RHP … $4.25 million … $7.125 million … + $2.875 million

Braden Looper, RHP … $5.5 million … Free Agent … - $5.5 million

Todd Wellemeyer, RHP … $1.0 million … Arb. est: $3.25 million … + $2.25 million

Joel Pineiro, RHP … $5 million … $7.5 million … + $2.5 million

Ryan Franklin, RHP … $2.25 million … $2.5 million … + $250,000

Russ Springer, RHP … $3.5 million … Free Agent … - $3.5 million

Ron Villone, LHP … $2 million … Free Agent … - $2 million

Randy Flores, LHP … $1 million … Likely Free Agent … - $1 million

Kyle McClellan, RHP … $390,000 … est. $421,000 … + $31,000

Brad Thompson, RHP … $414,000 … est. $855,000 … + $441,000

Chris Perez, RHP … $390,000 … est. $400,000 … + $10,000

Juan Encarnacion, OF … $6.5 million … Free Agent … - $6.5 million

Jason Isringhausen, RHP … $8.0 million … Free Agent … - $8.0 million

Chris Carpenter, RHP … $10 million … $14 million … + $4 million

Chris Duncan, OF … $439,000 … est. $855,000 … + $416,000

Mark Mulder, LHP … $6.5 million … Free Agent … - $6.5 million ($1.5m buyout)

Scott Spiezio, UT … $2.5 million … Free Agent … - $2.5 million ($100,000 buyout)

Matt Clement, RHP … $1.25 million … Free Agent … - $1.25 million

Tyler Johnson, LHP … $398,000 … est. $400,000 … + $2,000

Josh Kinney, RHP … $390,000 … est. $400,000 … + $10,000

***

The biggest uncertainties in the above matrix are obviously the abitration cases. Rick Ankiel, Todd Wellemeyer, Aaron Miles and, of course, Ryan Ludwick make for compelling cases. There’s Wellemeyer who has been reinvented as a starter, there’s Ankiel who has been reinvented as an outfielder and there’s Ludwick who has just reminded baseball what kind of impact prospect he was.

The above estimated salaries are educated estimates, but not locks. They could go up.

A few weeks ago, columnist Bernie Miklasz asked the seminal question of the winter, “Do the Cardinals believe in Ryan Ludwick?”. In that blog entry, Miklasz explores the comparable players to Ludwick, and thus offers a road map toward arbitration.

See, arbitration is based on comparable players and service time. It also considers an everyday at a different tier than a part-time player, and it categorizes players further by starters, closers, relievers and so on. Finding a comparable for Ludwick is as tricky as finding one for Ankiel was last winter. As Miklasz points out, Bubba Trammell does it. Trammell had a breakout 2001 with San Diego, hitting 25 homers and driving in 92 runs at the age of 29. With arbitration rights that winter, Trammell received a raise from $335,000 to $1.5 million. I have been cautioned at using the same rate of increase when it comes to Ludwick, but the outline of a comparison is clearly there.

Ankiel is actually a touch easier this year. Outfielder Gary Matthews Jr. could fit as his comparable, as he was going to be for one side of the arbitration case a year ago. Matthews was released before landing with Texas and re-establishing his career — a loose, but not absurd link to Ankiel’s trek. In 2005, Matthews made $1.1 million and went out and hit 17 home runs and drove in 55 runs in 526 plate appearances, enough to qualify for the batting title. In 2008, Ankiel hit 25 homers and drove in 71 runs, but did so in 463 plate appearances — not quite enough to qualify as that everyday, title-eligible batter.

Off to arbitration before the 2006 season, Matthews submitted $3 million and Texas countered with $2 million. The two sides agreed on a deal for about $2.4 million. That’s how arbitration is designed to work.

How it works out for the Cardinals will shape how much they have yet to spend for 2009.

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