Analyzing Matt Holliday’s mile-high splits (Part 1)
CREVE COEUR — When officials decided on the setting for the climate-controlled humidor at Coors Field — the machine geared to take the “mile high” out of mile-high offensive numbers — they decided to dial up Missouri. The humidor is set to 70 degrees and 50-percent humidity, the exact same specs Rawlings uses at its plant where official baseballs are stored here, in Missouri.
Maybe that explains how Matt Holliday has hit so well at Busch Stadium III. Climate familiarity.
Because there’s got to be some explanation besides altitude for the Colorado Rockies’ best hitter and his profoundly different home/road splits.
OF Matt Holliday connects for one of his 84 homers at Coors.
In the wake of Joe Strauss’ report that the St. Louis Cardinals are pursuing the Colorado Rockies outfielder and former MVP runnerup, reviews have been decidedly mixed. And many of them have focused on Holliday’s splits, how he can be a batting champ but also show signs of a statistics kissed by the Rocky Mountain air. The best breakdown of these numbers was, of course, done by columnist Bernie Miklasz, over the blog down the block, Bernie’s Extra Points. This entry is not an attempt to repeat those statistics — though there will be some overlap — but to find reasons. Think of this as a CSI on the numbers.
They are confounding.
Holliday won a batting title in 2007 and he finished 17 points behind Jimmy Rollins for the National League MVP. (In some corners, like this one, Holliday was considered the superior candidate for the award.) The Rockies’ left fielder is a gifted hitter, one who just as a year ago was considered in the second-tier class of righthanded hitters in the National League. Second-tier, that is, behind a tier of one, Albert Pujols. Yet, the home/road splits Holliday brings into any trade discussion are alarming:
CAREER AVERAGES … .319 batting … .552 slugging
AT COORS … .357 batting … .645 slugging
ELSEWHERE IN BASEBALL … .280 batting … .455 slugging
What is most eye-catching about those splits, as Bernie discussed, is the slugging percentage. In his career, Holliday has just 50 fewer at-bats on the road than he does at home, 1303 to 1353. He has 118 fewer hits on the road than at home. That alone does not explain the drastic difference between his slugging at Coors and his slugging elsewhere. The explanation: He has 73 fewer extra-base hits on the road than he does at home, including 40 fewer homers in just 20 fewer games.
This is a substantial difference, especially when the Cardinals are reportedly considering trading All-Star Ryan Ludwick (and/or another outfielder) in a package for Holliday and then having to find a way to sign Holliday, a free-agent-to-be, to what could be the second-richest on the team.
Holliday at Coors is a slugger, a lineup-changing power threat with a home every 16.1 at-bats and that hearty .645 slugging percentage. Away from Coors he’s, well, not. He averages a home run every 29.6 at-bats, which puts him in a different tax bracket. The road turns him into a different hitter. Still an All-Star, but more like these outfielders (AB/HR):
- Raul Ibanez, OF … 27.6
- Cory Hart, OF … 30.6
- Bobby Abreu, OF … 30.5
- Matt Kemp, OF … 33.7
- Jose Guillen, OF … 29.9
- And so on.
That’s the what and the where, the questions now are the how and the why …
(Follow this jump link for the continuation of this two-part blog entry.)
Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
If want to UPGRADE, lets shop an outfielder to get Roberts from Baltimore…
Guys, i hear what you’re all saying but if we give up Ludwig to get this, then how are we ever going to unload Chris Duncan? i would realy love to have both Holiday and Ludwig. would rather see them package Chris and Ankiel together. go on and throw me under the bus if you want but i would just like to see them pull this off without giving up Ludwig.
get whatever players you want TLR will still be here and with that we dont have a chance of winning
Obviously Holliday’s hittings stats are critical, but tell me about what I can’t see in the stats. What kind of a clubhouse influence is he? What kind of a professional is he? How do his teammates view him? The Cards need a sparkplug as much as they need a hitter.
ok, so we missed the playoffs last year because we blew more saves than Jim Edmond’s age. IF we’re going to give up an outfielder or a prime player, that is what we need to get. I really like Motte and Perez, but they don’t have an out pitch and I’m just not fully convinced that they are there yet. Our offense was up and down and we kept talking about someone to protect Pujols all while watching him put up some of the best numbers in history on a bum elbow. I may be completely off the rocker here, but I think our offense was competitive last year. I think our bullpen makes us think we need an offense that can put up 30 runs a game. What’s easier and less costly to fix?
“Holliday at Coors is a slugger, a lineup-changing power threat with a home every 16.1 at-bats and that hearty .645 slugging percentage. Away from Coors he’s, well, not. He averages a home run every 29.6 at-bats, which puts him in a different tax bracket.”
Actually, he would be in the same tax bracket.
http://www.irs.gov/formspubs/article/0,,id=164272,00.html
This trade would be idiotic. LaRusso has said it is a matter of perception. Perception does not win you games. Holliday has not been a stud outside of Coors Field. Keep Ludwig and go after the best SS or 2nd available and keep Ludwig.
Career year vs. Future HOF’er! I wouldn’t think twice about doing this deal. Ludwick will never have the trade value again that he has now. Holliday is a year younger and a certain HOF’er. The money works because Glaus salary comes off the books next year. Ludwick and 2 spare parts for Holliday is a no brainer!!!
Crombizzle drops what is believed to be the first IRS reference at Bird Land. Well done. Thanks for turning my cliche on its head with the facts.
Now I am seeing the reports that it will be Ludwick, Schumaker and Boggs for Holliday. It appears the Cards are trying to clear inventory because of the new stock coming in…(ala..Colby Rasmus, Jon Jay, Daryl Jones). If that deal goes down you can bet they are trying to clear the bottleneck of outfielders while getting TLR “perceptive protection” for Pujols. All I can say is this is a bold move if it goes through. Free Agency has yet to open. I too expect Mo to try and sign Renteria and LHRP. Hopefully Fuentes. And then some how have enough money to upgrade through trade or signing a 2B-MAN. I’m not going to knock Mo or the ownership until I see what the roster shapes up to be going into February. After all, remember Mo’s words about being aggressive and creative. I’d say the rumor mill is underscoring those words right now. It should be an interesting winter folks. One last thought. The poor economy may be influencing ownership to make some moves to keep the fan base interest up because if they don’t make some moves that gives the Cards a fighting chance they just may lose some of those season ticket holders. And this poor economy may not turn around for 2 or 3 years.