Analyzing Matt Holliday’s mile-high splits (Part 1)
CREVE COEUR — When officials decided on the setting for the climate-controlled humidor at Coors Field — the machine geared to take the “mile high” out of mile-high offensive numbers — they decided to dial up Missouri. The humidor is set to 70 degrees and 50-percent humidity, the exact same specs Rawlings uses at its plant where official baseballs are stored here, in Missouri.
Maybe that explains how Matt Holliday has hit so well at Busch Stadium III. Climate familiarity.
Because there’s got to be some explanation besides altitude for the Colorado Rockies’ best hitter and his profoundly different home/road splits.
OF Matt Holliday connects for one of his 84 homers at Coors.
In the wake of Joe Strauss’ report that the St. Louis Cardinals are pursuing the Colorado Rockies outfielder and former MVP runnerup, reviews have been decidedly mixed. And many of them have focused on Holliday’s splits, how he can be a batting champ but also show signs of a statistics kissed by the Rocky Mountain air. The best breakdown of these numbers was, of course, done by columnist Bernie Miklasz, over the blog down the block, Bernie’s Extra Points. This entry is not an attempt to repeat those statistics — though there will be some overlap — but to find reasons. Think of this as a CSI on the numbers.
They are confounding.
Holliday won a batting title in 2007 and he finished 17 points behind Jimmy Rollins for the National League MVP. (In some corners, like this one, Holliday was considered the superior candidate for the award.) The Rockies’ left fielder is a gifted hitter, one who just as a year ago was considered in the second-tier class of righthanded hitters in the National League. Second-tier, that is, behind a tier of one, Albert Pujols. Yet, the home/road splits Holliday brings into any trade discussion are alarming:
CAREER AVERAGES … .319 batting … .552 slugging
AT COORS … .357 batting … .645 slugging
ELSEWHERE IN BASEBALL … .280 batting … .455 slugging
What is most eye-catching about those splits, as Bernie discussed, is the slugging percentage. In his career, Holliday has just 50 fewer at-bats on the road than he does at home, 1303 to 1353. He has 118 fewer hits on the road than at home. That alone does not explain the drastic difference between his slugging at Coors and his slugging elsewhere. The explanation: He has 73 fewer extra-base hits on the road than he does at home, including 40 fewer homers in just 20 fewer games.
This is a substantial difference, especially when the Cardinals are reportedly considering trading All-Star Ryan Ludwick (and/or another outfielder) in a package for Holliday and then having to find a way to sign Holliday, a free-agent-to-be, to what could be the second-richest on the team.
Holliday at Coors is a slugger, a lineup-changing power threat with a home every 16.1 at-bats and that hearty .645 slugging percentage. Away from Coors he’s, well, not. He averages a home run every 29.6 at-bats, which puts him in a different tax bracket. The road turns him into a different hitter. Still an All-Star, but more like these outfielders (AB/HR):
- Raul Ibanez, OF … 27.6
- Cory Hart, OF … 30.6
- Bobby Abreu, OF … 30.5
- Matt Kemp, OF … 33.7
- Jose Guillen, OF … 29.9
- And so on.
That’s the what and the where, the questions now are the how and the why …
(Follow this jump link for the continuation of this two-part blog entry.)
Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I hope this trade works out…..This guy is a great hitter at Busch and being around these guys can only make him better…
I am wondering why the Cards are not addressing the PITCHING. The bats are fine, if the pitching blew HALF of the games they did, we would have been in the playoffs. Trading for Holliday would be a mistake and again, we will blame the players instead of the front office
I agree with those who think this proposed trade does not make sense. Holliday is a very good player, but so is Ludwick. Even straight up, I would not make the deal. The main difference is the money each will make this year, and the security that we will have Ludwick beyond this year. Estimates are that Holliday will make $8M more than Ludwick. I would rather see that money spent on areas the Cardinals could use help - pitching and middle infield.
Sell high!
Okay, here’s the thing.
Holliday is guaranteed production. Maybe I’m wrong, but I believe that. Ludwick just came off of a potential MVP season.
Does anyone believe that THIRTY year old Ryan Ludwick with no track record will ever challenge Albert Pujols for “Best Player on Team,” again?
I don’t. I think he’s going to fall off big time and just be decent. .280 AVG, maybe 18 HR and 60 RBI.
If I can get Matt Holliday for Ryan Ludwick and some okay prospects, I’m all in. I wouldn’t give up Rasmus for him, or even Ankiel (who I think has big power potential; maybe 40+ HR).
BUT, on the condition that it means payroll is raised. If you make the trade, you have to lock him down for at least a few years. And you still need middle infield help, and more importantly a revamped bullpen. And don’t forget, Pujols isn’t signed forever.
But I think the trade would immediately make the Cardinals better.
Schumaker
Ankiel
Pujols
Holliday
Glaus
MIDDLE INFIELD HELP!
Molina
MIDDLE INFIELD HELP!
Pitcher
Except the pitcher bats eighth, because Tony LaRussa says so, and he’s the future first ballot Hall of Famer with Rings in both leagues. Not me.
Maybe you can even get enough middle infield help to hit them leadoff, and you can move Schumaker instead of Duncan’t, and hit the big oaf 7th. Either way, that lineup is dangerous (assuming middle infield help isn’t Cesar Izturis and Adam Kennedy).
If Wainwright and Lohse can put up healthy seasons, and a closer emerges, we’d be set up to have a big year.
I will concede though, acquiring Holliday won’t be enough on it’s own to get us into the playoffs. We need some pitching. And some pitching. But this would certainly be a nice pickup for a team lacking star power beyond Fat Albert.
Sell high.
The best available information we have at the moment is Ludwick, Schumaker and M. Boggs for Holliday. If the Cardinals were the Yankees with a virtually unlimited payroll, executing the trade would make more sense. I don’t believe Ludwick is a one-year wonder. Our outfield (without making a trade) has a good chance of being a 100 HR outfield. I would rather see a trade of Schumaker and B. Ryan for K. Greene or Schumaker and M. Boggs for one of Atlanta’s middle infielders. Don’t get me wrong, there’s nothing wrong with Schumaker, but you have to give up something. Trading for Greene and signing F. Lopez would give us a potential lineup of Rasmus, K. Greene, Pujols, Ludwick, Glaus, Ankiel, Molina, Pitcher, F. Lopez.
1. Never trade a previous years all-star. 2. you send a message to the others in the farm system that it is possible to come up the ranks and make the bigs with out fear of being the player to be named later. 3. Ludwick looks and acts like a team player and willing to bat in T-Balls silly day to day line up changes. 4. Ludwick comes at a nice price and so far seems reliable. 5. lastly the team was very close to winning a playoff spot and hitting and fielding was not the problem,… bullpen blown saves! Give them half the blown saves and we were looking pretty good. The excuse of not being able to tack on runs was the ol’ look at this hand while the other hand is doing something bad. Blown saves was the issue, fix that and the Cardinals are serious contenders again.
james K
Ludwig and anyone for Holliday? Why? There aren’t enough plusses in that scenario to make anyone happy. Don’t do it. Save the trading capital for something you need desperately — pitching and closing. Even the infield as it was isn’t bad. Sign Lopez. Use Anderson as trade bait, not a proven almost MVP numbers player who wants to be in ST. Louis.
why dont the cardinals trade away prospects like Rasmus to get the big players? a lot of other teams do it but we dont. look at the rays trading away delmon young to get garza and bartlett from the twins, i mean they are not the biggest named players but they helped lead the rays to the world series. give the rockies rasmus skip and boggs, and have an outfield of holliday ankiel and ludwick with mather and duncan as backups.
the cards also need to start spending some more money! we cannot let the cubs keep winning the central…its not supposed to be like that!
TRADE AINT HAPPENING!!!!