Analyzing Matt Holliday’s mile-high splits (Part 1)
CREVE COEUR — When officials decided on the setting for the climate-controlled humidor at Coors Field — the machine geared to take the “mile high” out of mile-high offensive numbers — they decided to dial up Missouri. The humidor is set to 70 degrees and 50-percent humidity, the exact same specs Rawlings uses at its plant where official baseballs are stored here, in Missouri.
Maybe that explains how Matt Holliday has hit so well at Busch Stadium III. Climate familiarity.
Because there’s got to be some explanation besides altitude for the Colorado Rockies’ best hitter and his profoundly different home/road splits.
OF Matt Holliday connects for one of his 84 homers at Coors.
In the wake of Joe Strauss’ report that the St. Louis Cardinals are pursuing the Colorado Rockies outfielder and former MVP runnerup, reviews have been decidedly mixed. And many of them have focused on Holliday’s splits, how he can be a batting champ but also show signs of a statistics kissed by the Rocky Mountain air. The best breakdown of these numbers was, of course, done by columnist Bernie Miklasz, over the blog down the block, Bernie’s Extra Points. This entry is not an attempt to repeat those statistics — though there will be some overlap — but to find reasons. Think of this as a CSI on the numbers.
They are confounding.
Holliday won a batting title in 2007 and he finished 17 points behind Jimmy Rollins for the National League MVP. (In some corners, like this one, Holliday was considered the superior candidate for the award.) The Rockies’ left fielder is a gifted hitter, one who just as a year ago was considered in the second-tier class of righthanded hitters in the National League. Second-tier, that is, behind a tier of one, Albert Pujols. Yet, the home/road splits Holliday brings into any trade discussion are alarming:
CAREER AVERAGES … .319 batting … .552 slugging
AT COORS … .357 batting … .645 slugging
ELSEWHERE IN BASEBALL … .280 batting … .455 slugging
What is most eye-catching about those splits, as Bernie discussed, is the slugging percentage. In his career, Holliday has just 50 fewer at-bats on the road than he does at home, 1303 to 1353. He has 118 fewer hits on the road than at home. That alone does not explain the drastic difference between his slugging at Coors and his slugging elsewhere. The explanation: He has 73 fewer extra-base hits on the road than he does at home, including 40 fewer homers in just 20 fewer games.
This is a substantial difference, especially when the Cardinals are reportedly considering trading All-Star Ryan Ludwick (and/or another outfielder) in a package for Holliday and then having to find a way to sign Holliday, a free-agent-to-be, to what could be the second-richest on the team.
Holliday at Coors is a slugger, a lineup-changing power threat with a home every 16.1 at-bats and that hearty .645 slugging percentage. Away from Coors he’s, well, not. He averages a home run every 29.6 at-bats, which puts him in a different tax bracket. The road turns him into a different hitter. Still an All-Star, but more like these outfielders (AB/HR):
- Raul Ibanez, OF … 27.6
- Cory Hart, OF … 30.6
- Bobby Abreu, OF … 30.5
- Matt Kemp, OF … 33.7
- Jose Guillen, OF … 29.9
- And so on.
That’s the what and the where, the questions now are the how and the why …
(Follow this jump link for the continuation of this two-part blog entry.)
Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I think having to play a lot of games in San Diego, LA, and San Fransisco (all pitchers parks) are enough to deflate Hollidays road numbers. Even if you lose Holliday after a year, you get compensation picks which will make up for the loss of Boggs and Schumacher who are two very replaceable players. People who know baseball don’t compare the average/homeruns/rbi’s they compare the slash stats known as average/slug/obp. They also know that its okay to have a lot of strike outs in your lineup (at least in your RBI positions). This is the reason the American League has dominated the National. The National continues to use up outs sacrificing and using singles hitters while the American is using high OBP/Slug/Average…aka power hitters who work the count, draw walks, don’t give easy outs, avoid double plays, ect. If you look at the recent World Series Champs/good teams they all have great power lineups (Boston, Chicago, Boston, Philly). The only exception is the Cards in 2006. A lot of times strike outs by RBI men avoid inning ending double plays. As long as your RBI guys have high OBP’s and slugging percentages your strike out rate doesn’t matter since you get out 7 out of 10 times in baseball anyway (you have to get out someway and in RBI situations a strike out is usually better than a ground out which could cause a DB). Wake up people. Holliday is a better player than Ludwick. Ludwick is also injury proned. Think about this:
1. Rasmus (good slash stats/defensive upgrade/adds the ability to steal)
2. Ankiel (.500 slug/great defensive player)
3. Pujols (best player in the league)
4. Holliday (great slash stats/power upgrade/defensive upgrade)
5. Glaus (decent slash stats/decent defense)
6. 2B (on the team for defense)
7. SS (on the team for defense)
8. Molina/Pitcher (on the team for defense)
9. Pitcher/Molina
That first 5 of the line up is pretty good. That lineup would improve the slash stats/power numbers significantly, add the ability to run, and improve the defense (assuming Rasmus is the player he is projected to be). At this point the smartest thing the Cards could do is add Holliday, resign Izturis/a 2B who are good defensively, and shore up the pitching. I don’t know why people think its more important to sign a SS/2B, since no SS/2B will improve your club offensively (or defensively for that matter). We don’t need more hitters we need more power bats and those positions don’t offer many. If you can get Holliday with an extension…..then you no doubt HAVE to make this trade. Everyone keeps saying sign Renteria, but people don’t realize Izturiz is better defensively and he has almost as good offensive numbers. Izturis has a higher OBP. Renteria adds no power and is declining as a player. It would be nice to keep Ludwick along with Holliday but I don’t think the Rockies would want anyone else on the team (except Pujols and Rasmus). We still have Duncan on the bench who is another power bat. People are acting like adding Holliday is going to take away your ability to add a left handed specialist and closer (which by the way we have two very good young prospects at closer). I would pull the trigger on this deal in a second…especially if you can sign Holliday to an extension before. In my opinion, you can add both of the Braves middle infielders and it wouldn’t improve your team as much as having Holliday protecting Pujols. The only negative I can see in this trade is that you deminish the value of Chris Duncan. Chris Duncan would be reduced to strictly a left handed bat to come on and pinch hit for the SS/2B/Pitcher positions who would then leave the game after the pinch hit because he isn’t a defensive upgrade. But if Ankiel gets hurt he could come in at the number two spot and and you wouldn’t lose the power. The other knock is you could potentially loser Holliday after one year, but if you do you get compensation for him via draft picks which improves your team in the long run. I say pull the trigger. I figured the Rockies would want more then Ludwick, Schumacher, Boggs (like that plus Rasmus).