Analyzing Matt Holliday’s mile-high splits (Part 2)
TOWER GROVE — Since his star turn in Colorado’s 2007 run to the National League pennant, outfielder Matt Holliday has been billed, quickly, as a slugger. That’s not an entirely accurate scouting report.
Holliday, whom the St. Louis Cardinals have eagerly pursued acquiring this past week, is first and foremost a pure hitter. He’s more likely to hit better than .320 than he is to hit 35 homers. In talking with baseball people the past couple days, Holliday is seen as a high-average hitter with power; not a power hitter who also hits for average.
OF Matt Holliday and his leg kick. (SI.com)
Part 2 of this (experimental) weekend blog entry begins with the working theory that I wanted to explore after exchanging text messages with Bernie Miklasz the other day. It is this: That Holliday benefits from the big outfield at Coors Field. That that is why Holliday has a .357 average at home and a .385 career average at Busch III.
I began by pulling apart Holliday’s batting average and slugging percentage at every ballpark.
To start, I used the park factors calculated by ESPN — numbers that pit a team’s and its opponents’ home performance against the road performance to set a ratio where 1.000 is an even park and above it a hitter-friendly park. Here was how Holliday has done in his career at the top five hitter-friendly parks in the National League this past season and the five hardest places to hit in the league this past summer.
Hitter-Friendly
- Coors Field … 1.098 PF in 2008 … .357 BA, .645 SLG in career.
- Chase Field … 1.072 PF in 2008 … .298 BA, .435 SLG in career.
- Turner Field … 1.068 PF in 2008 … .345 BA, .564 SLG in career.
- Citizens Bank … 1.036 PF in 2008 … .283 BA, .547 SLG in career.
- Wrigley Field … 1.032 PF in 2008 … .229 BA, .313 SLG in career.
Pitcher-Friendly
- Busch Stadium … 0.962 PF in 2008 … .385 BA, .872 SLG in career.
- Dolphin Stadium … 0.946 PF in 2008 … .346 BA, .673 SLG in career.
- Shea Stadium … 0.926 PF in 2008 … .281 BA, .351 SLG in career.
- Petco Park … 0.896 PF in 2008 … .205 BA, .365 SLG in career.
- Dodger Stadium … 0.892 PF in 2008 … .259 BA, .415 SLG in career.
Combing through Bill James’ various Park Indices — which rates parks on a scale where 100 is neutral — there are other clues but no real clear indicators to grab ahold of. Holliday hits well in parks where the majority of hitters do not. He does not hit with power in parks where a majority of hitters usually do at better than their career averages. Eight ballparks scored a 109 or higher on James’ Park Index for home-run favoritism, and Holliday hit below his average and slugging percentage at all of them other than Colorado.
Coors Field has been the ballpark most embracing of offense in each of the past three seasons, according to ESPN’s Park Factors, despite that Missouri-inspired humidor. Park of the reason is the spacious outfield — the one that invites doubles and leaves acres open for singles. Consider the bigger outfields in baseball and how Holliday has done hitting into those open spaces the past three years and in his career:
Coors Field … .361/.669 (3-year) … .357/.645 (career)
PNC Park … .257/.457 (3-year) … .307/.480 (career)
Miller Park … .313/.594 (3-year) … .304/.543 (career)
Busch Stadium … .385/.872 (3-year) … .385/.872 (career)
Dolphin Stadium … .436/.872 (3-year) … .346/.673 (career)
Petco Park … .250/.406 (3-year) … .205/.365 (career)
Dodger Stadium … .296/.459 (3-year) … .259/.415 (career)
There is some interesting numbers there, but they are hard to divorce completely from the pitching staffs Holliday faced in those ballparks he didn’t call home. As Bernie explores in his blog (the link, again), there is an argument to be had that Holliday’s home/road splits are skewed by his division, which features two difficult ballparks to hit (Petco, Dodger) and a ballpark that muzzles righthanded hitters in AT&T Park (ask Pujols). KMOX’s Kevin Wheeler offered one quick calculation that supports the NL West factor.
Subtract Holliday’s games at Dodger Stadium and Petco this past season and his .308 road average spikes to .318 in the 198 other at-bats. His slugging percentage climbs from .486 to .500. In his career, he’s a .205 hitter at Petco and doing the Wheeler Subtraction on his career splits raises his career average from .280 to .294 and his slugging percentage jumps from .the .455 to .474.
The CSI shorthand: Holliday can hit. Has he benefited from playing half of his career so far at Coors Field? No doubt. Do his road splits stand out? Yes. But Holliday can hit. He has hit. He’s not a mile-high monster who wilts at sea level. Holliday can hit. He will hit.
The bigger question is will he re-sign.
His recent comments to The Denver Post about why he turned down an extension and may have thusly paved his way out of Colorado may offer an indication of the kind of place he’d like to land.
“I specifically don’t want to spend my career collecting paychecks and having October off,” Holliday told the Post last week. “I want to be in a situation where I feel like I can make the postseason every year, not only if the perfect storm comes together. I am not saying Colorado can’t do that. But approaching free agency and making decisions about being somewhere long term, you have to consider more than money. The money gets to the point, it’s a lot either way.”
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Holliday simply will not produce the numbers as a Cardinal that he has in Denver, but Boras will not accept a contract that reflects that fact. Considering that the Cardinals are not the Cubs when it comes to payroll, I would keep Ludwick and spend the available money on the infield. Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan, Rasmus, etc. will be a great outfield for the price. I especially think Ankiel will jump statistically with a bit more experience.
“you have to consider more than money”
Thats a guy we need. That is why the cardinals dont pursue guys like A-Rod or Manny, its not all about money. Its about winning. And I think if Matt really wants a chance to play in October every year, he will come to St Louis. If not, Sucks to be him.
See my comment on part one — these numbers are interesting, but not predictive. Rockies players road splits do not usually tell us much about what they do full time once leaving the Rox.
Yeah, Dom, the great thing about Holliday is he’s a really excellent person, does some great things in the community. He would definitely be a class Cardinal. Just hope that we can sign him, if the rumored deal happens…..
I only have this brief comment. For money, CC Sabathia, Kelly Johnson, and Brian Fuentes, make more sense than Matt Holiday. Long term and for close to the same money over 6 years. The only way I take Holliday is with a Cardinals discount because he knows he’s going to play for a contender every year. Only one homer on the road between Minute Maid and Wrigley, are you kidding me?
Good job on the numbers, but keep in mind Holliday made it to the major leagues quickly without ever playing a game at Coors Field. He has hit impressively at every level. The other variable is the lineup he’s playing with itself (along with the pitching he faced in the various fields — a big factor that changes day to day and year to year). He doesn’t have to carry STL with Pujols, Glaus, et al, around him. Sorry but Atkins and Hawpe aren’t the same thing at all. I love what Ludwick has done, and 37 and 113 were impressive this year for him, but his strikeouts are maddening. How about avg. with men on base comparisons. I’m betting that if they walked Pujols in front of Holliday a hundred times, he’d have 150 RBI. Ludwick is a hard worker and a very good ballplayer. Holliday is a natural. Think of a right-handed Larry Walker at his prime. Pujols-Holliday could wind up being our Ortiz-Ramirez combo.
DG, great post and excellent research.
There are a lot of interesting arguments being made, whether in favor of acquiring Holliday or not acquiring Holliday.
Luddy’s value will never be higher. 37 homers, 113 RBIs, his finishing second in the league in SLG, all very impressive. But, DG, as you mentioned, even though Holliday’s numbers may slip a bit when he is not playing half his games at Coors, there is no questioning whether or not Holliday can hit.
Again, the value of Ryan Ludwick will never be higher. He is 30 years old, and turns 31 in July. I’m not counting on him to put up numbers similar to ‘08. He has hasn’t show he can stay healthy for 162 games, he hasn’t show he can produce over the course of the season. Matt Holliday has.
Holliday is a solid hitter. Great plate discipline, and doesn’t strikeout as much as Luddy. Hitting behind AP has to be the best position for a hitter in the game. He is going to have chances to produce with runners on. He has proven that he can do that. He has done it his whole career.
Holliday is a Scott Boras client. I would expect him to probably test the FA market after 2009.
The argument seems to be: would it be worth trading three seasons of Luddy, for one season of Holliday?
The more pressing need, I think, is middle infield help. There is obviously interests in Luddy. The one name that excites me is Yunel Escobar of the Braves. He’d bring production, a good glove, and energy to the Cards. I’m not a big fan of this deal, just because it is hard for me to see Holliday in a Cards uniform past 2009. But, if Mo was to pull this deal off without giving up Raz, then I couldn’t complain.
One factor that needs to be considered is pitching. Teams play about 50% of their games at home, 50% against their own division, and 50% against everyone else. 25% of their games are at Arizona, at San Fran, at San Diego, and at LA - combined. Just over 6% at each park. Another 6% against those teams at home. 2% of the time he’s facing Tim Lincecum. 2% of the time he’s facing Matt Cain. 2% of the time he’s facing Brandon Webb. 2% of the time he’s facing Jake Peavy. 2% against Lowe, Billingsly, etc. He’s putting up those numbers against marquee pitching. The west has some great pitching staffs, and he saw them more. Just another factor to consider.
I would personally rather trade for Yunel Escobar, but Holliday is a hitter.
catfish,
I’m not sure what you were looking at in your comments that Holliday made it to the majors quickly and hit everywhere on the way (paraphrased) but he spent five full season in the minors plus his initial year at short season ball. He repeated both high A ball and AA ball. His line over those 629 games was .276/.347/.427. Color me unimpressed.
I am concerned that A) he will not be the premier slugger TLR is looking for to “protect” Albert, B) a contract extension will be very tough to get with Boras as his agent, and C) if we do get him to sign an extension it will be be for more money than he turns out to be worth at sea level.
Retrosheet does not have the 2008 season data available yet, but they do have splits by ballpark available for the years up through 2007. If we look at Holliday’s career numbers for BA, and weight those by how many games the ‘07 Cardinals played in those parks (Holliday was .483 at Busch III before 2008), exclude interleague road games and DC (no data yet for Nationals Park), I estimate a BA of .388 in 148 games for Holliday. Bad news: Holliday was only hitting .229 at Wrigley.
Looking at HR/game in these parks (and excluding Old Busch II), this model would predict 50-51 HR for Holliday at home (5 HR in 8 GP) and 9-10 on the road (Cincinnati and Philadelphia are his best other parks behind StL; Colorado, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh are next).
This does not take into account whose pitching he would be facing in St Louis.