Analyzing Matt Holliday’s mile-high splits (Part 2)
TOWER GROVE — Since his star turn in Colorado’s 2007 run to the National League pennant, outfielder Matt Holliday has been billed, quickly, as a slugger. That’s not an entirely accurate scouting report.
Holliday, whom the St. Louis Cardinals have eagerly pursued acquiring this past week, is first and foremost a pure hitter. He’s more likely to hit better than .320 than he is to hit 35 homers. In talking with baseball people the past couple days, Holliday is seen as a high-average hitter with power; not a power hitter who also hits for average.
OF Matt Holliday and his leg kick. (SI.com)
Part 2 of this (experimental) weekend blog entry begins with the working theory that I wanted to explore after exchanging text messages with Bernie Miklasz the other day. It is this: That Holliday benefits from the big outfield at Coors Field. That that is why Holliday has a .357 average at home and a .385 career average at Busch III.
I began by pulling apart Holliday’s batting average and slugging percentage at every ballpark.
To start, I used the park factors calculated by ESPN — numbers that pit a team’s and its opponents’ home performance against the road performance to set a ratio where 1.000 is an even park and above it a hitter-friendly park. Here was how Holliday has done in his career at the top five hitter-friendly parks in the National League this past season and the five hardest places to hit in the league this past summer.
Hitter-Friendly
- Coors Field … 1.098 PF in 2008 … .357 BA, .645 SLG in career.
- Chase Field … 1.072 PF in 2008 … .298 BA, .435 SLG in career.
- Turner Field … 1.068 PF in 2008 … .345 BA, .564 SLG in career.
- Citizens Bank … 1.036 PF in 2008 … .283 BA, .547 SLG in career.
- Wrigley Field … 1.032 PF in 2008 … .229 BA, .313 SLG in career.
Pitcher-Friendly
- Busch Stadium … 0.962 PF in 2008 … .385 BA, .872 SLG in career.
- Dolphin Stadium … 0.946 PF in 2008 … .346 BA, .673 SLG in career.
- Shea Stadium … 0.926 PF in 2008 … .281 BA, .351 SLG in career.
- Petco Park … 0.896 PF in 2008 … .205 BA, .365 SLG in career.
- Dodger Stadium … 0.892 PF in 2008 … .259 BA, .415 SLG in career.
Combing through Bill James’ various Park Indices — which rates parks on a scale where 100 is neutral — there are other clues but no real clear indicators to grab ahold of. Holliday hits well in parks where the majority of hitters do not. He does not hit with power in parks where a majority of hitters usually do at better than their career averages. Eight ballparks scored a 109 or higher on James’ Park Index for home-run favoritism, and Holliday hit below his average and slugging percentage at all of them other than Colorado.
Coors Field has been the ballpark most embracing of offense in each of the past three seasons, according to ESPN’s Park Factors, despite that Missouri-inspired humidor. Park of the reason is the spacious outfield — the one that invites doubles and leaves acres open for singles. Consider the bigger outfields in baseball and how Holliday has done hitting into those open spaces the past three years and in his career:
Coors Field … .361/.669 (3-year) … .357/.645 (career)
PNC Park … .257/.457 (3-year) … .307/.480 (career)
Miller Park … .313/.594 (3-year) … .304/.543 (career)
Busch Stadium … .385/.872 (3-year) … .385/.872 (career)
Dolphin Stadium … .436/.872 (3-year) … .346/.673 (career)
Petco Park … .250/.406 (3-year) … .205/.365 (career)
Dodger Stadium … .296/.459 (3-year) … .259/.415 (career)
There is some interesting numbers there, but they are hard to divorce completely from the pitching staffs Holliday faced in those ballparks he didn’t call home. As Bernie explores in his blog (the link, again), there is an argument to be had that Holliday’s home/road splits are skewed by his division, which features two difficult ballparks to hit (Petco, Dodger) and a ballpark that muzzles righthanded hitters in AT&T Park (ask Pujols). KMOX’s Kevin Wheeler offered one quick calculation that supports the NL West factor.
Subtract Holliday’s games at Dodger Stadium and Petco this past season and his .308 road average spikes to .318 in the 198 other at-bats. His slugging percentage climbs from .486 to .500. In his career, he’s a .205 hitter at Petco and doing the Wheeler Subtraction on his career splits raises his career average from .280 to .294 and his slugging percentage jumps from .the .455 to .474.
The CSI shorthand: Holliday can hit. Has he benefited from playing half of his career so far at Coors Field? No doubt. Do his road splits stand out? Yes. But Holliday can hit. He has hit. He’s not a mile-high monster who wilts at sea level. Holliday can hit. He will hit.
The bigger question is will he re-sign.
His recent comments to The Denver Post about why he turned down an extension and may have thusly paved his way out of Colorado may offer an indication of the kind of place he’d like to land.
“I specifically don’t want to spend my career collecting paychecks and having October off,” Holliday told the Post last week. “I want to be in a situation where I feel like I can make the postseason every year, not only if the perfect storm comes together. I am not saying Colorado can’t do that. But approaching free agency and making decisions about being somewhere long term, you have to consider more than money. The money gets to the point, it’s a lot either way.”
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Loshe is a Boras client….he didn’t test free agency. I think the Cards have a pretty good relationship with Boras so I could see a deal getting worked out here. Saying that, I hope we don’t get Holliday..we have other more important needs to address.
I’m still of mixed feelings on this trade; I really like Ryan Ludwick (who’s this “Ludwig” fellow?) and I’m not as convinced as some that 2008 was a total fluke; even with a dropoff to more-expected levels (based on the analysis I did several weeks ago) there’s no reason he still wouldn’t hit .280 with 28-30 HR and 95-100 RBI.
But - Matt Holliday is certainly a “marquee” (not “Marquis”) player and his presence in the lineup would certainly ramp up the “fear factor” to some degree; I doubt we’d see as many pitchers walking Albert to get to Matt as they did to get to Ryan.
I must say I agree with the poster who wishes there was some way to get Holliday in the lineup *without* giving up Ludwick - wouldn’t an outfield of Holliday-Ankiel-Ludwick look awesome? (Maybe we could get them to take Rasmus instead, since his father (or brother, or whoever’s posting this week) still seems to be agitating for a trade and insisting that Colby will never play in a TLR outfield.)
BTW, who says that if we make this deal that we still won’t address our other issues? Like we’re gonna shut down the trade lines after making this trade? Oh well, people were acting like it was the last deal we’d make a few weeks ago when we signed Charlie Manning.
DG:
Thanks for the analysis. I would gladly add Holliday. The naysayers are assuming this is the only deal; it’s more likely just the first deal. They’re also focusing on the comparison of Luddy’s 2008 salary– not what he’ll have to be paid in 2009– probably at least 5 million. If this takes Luddy, Schu and Boggs– this deal has to get done. Boggs is not projected for the rotation; Cards don’t need RHPs or surplus outfielders: You can only play three at a time. Add Holliday and go with an outfield of Ank Holliday & Rasmus. What your take?
Thanks, Allen
Yeah I’m really torn on this one. On one hand I think it would be great to have Holliday in the lineup but on the other hand it seems like the Cardinals will have to tie up too much of their money in too few of players for years to come. The bullpen is a glaring hole that needs to be corrected along with middle infield help, I know LaRussa wants an “impact” bat, which Holliday would provide, but Tony might not even be here after next season, so I can see his want to win now. All I can say is I’m glad I’m not in Mo’s shoes, either way he’s going to upset someone.
Also a side note:
Please stop with the Sabathia talk. The Cardinals can’t sign him, he’ll be on one of the coasts next year, which one though, I’m not sure.
A big question with his numbers in St. Louis seeming to be a balancing factor for Holiday, is is it possible that his good stats in St. Louis are just due to the fact that our scouting reports on him are bad or that our pitchers have trouble executing the game plan w/Holiday at the plate?
Even though, Boris and the Cards may have a good relationship, both Holliday and Boris could make a lot more money if a team like the Yankees made a run at Holliday after the 2009 season. DG, how much of an effect would the Boris/Cards relationship have in the Cards possibly trying to resign Holliday after 2009? Would it even make a difference?
Holliday is one of the best pure hitters in the game. He is a lot like Albert, in that he uses the entire field, he will hit some HR’s, and carry a .320avg. He will also be quite an improvement vs. Left handers. Despite what you hear/read he is above average defensively, and we could sure use the extra speed in the line-up. Ask yourself one question; this time last year would I trade Ludwick, Shu and Boggs for future HOF’er Matt Holliday? The answer is YES 100 out of 100 times. Next year Glaus salary comes off the books, so the money does work. Ludwick will get approx. 5M this year, and Glaus makes about 11M, so IF Mo can sign Holliday to an extension…Git er dunn!!!! NOW!!!!
Skmsw,
Your snapshot of other Rockies in life after Coors (or Mile High Stadium, in a few of your examples), is well done. Thanks for putting that up here.
There have been some other hitters through the years who have cranked in St. Louis — and sure scouting reports could be the reasons. Brian Giles owned Busch II. Holliday hits well at Busch III, but Ryan Howard just bashes at the downtown ballpark. Scouting reports? Wouldn’t be the first time that question has been asked. But mostly it’s just the hitter.
dg
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Look at his numbers at Busch…Wow… this would be a great pick up… a young Larry Walker is right..I hope this one works out..I am sure the owners know of his contract time, and wouldn’t go after him if they weren’t willing to keep him if he give us what we need