TOWER GROVE — Since his star turn in Colorado’s 2007 run to the National League pennant, outfielder Matt Holliday has been billed, quickly, as a slugger. That’s not an entirely accurate scouting report.

Holliday, whom the St. Louis Cardinals have eagerly pursued acquiring this past week, is first and foremost a pure hitter. He’s more likely to hit better than .320 than he is to hit 35 homers. In talking with baseball people the past couple days, Holliday is seen as a high-average hitter with power; not a power hitter who also hits for average.

Part 2 of this (experimental) weekend blog entry begins with the working theory that I wanted to explore after exchanging text messages with Bernie Miklasz the other day. It is this: That Holliday benefits from the big outfield at Coors Field. That that is why Holliday has a .357 average at home and a .385 career average at Busch III.

I began by pulling apart Holliday’s batting average and slugging percentage at every ballpark.

To start, I used the park factors calculated by ESPN — numbers that pit a team’s and its opponents’ home performance against the road performance to set a ratio where 1.000 is an even park and above it a hitter-friendly park. Here was how Holliday has done in his career at the top five hitter-friendly parks in the National League this past season and the five hardest places to hit in the league this past summer.

Hitter-Friendly

• Coors Field … 1.098 PF in 2008 … .357 BA, .645 SLG in career.
• Chase Field … 1.072 PF in 2008 … .298 BA, .435 SLG in career.
• Turner Field … 1.068 PF in 2008 … .345 BA, .564 SLG in career.
• Citizens Bank … 1.036 PF in 2008 … .283 BA, .547 SLG in career.
• Wrigley Field … 1.032 PF in 2008 … .229 BA, .313 SLG in career.

Pitcher-Friendly

• Busch Stadium … 0.962 PF in 2008 … .385 BA, .872 SLG in career.
• Dolphin Stadium … 0.946 PF in 2008 … .346 BA, .673 SLG in career.
• Shea Stadium … 0.926 PF in 2008 … .281 BA, .351 SLG in career.
• Petco Park … 0.896 PF in 2008 … .205 BA, .365 SLG in career.
• Dodger Stadium … 0.892 PF in 2008 … .259 BA, .415 SLG in career.

Combing through Bill James’ various Park Indices — which rates parks on a scale where 100 is neutral — there are other clues but no real clear indicators to grab ahold of. Holliday hits well in parks where the majority of hitters do not. He does not hit with power in parks where a majority of hitters usually do at better than their career averages. Eight ballparks scored a 109 or higher on James’ Park Index for home-run favoritism, and Holliday hit below his average and slugging percentage at all of them other than Colorado.

Coors Field has been the ballpark most embracing of offense in each of the past three seasons, according to ESPN’s Park Factors, despite that Missouri-inspired humidor. Park of the reason is the spacious outfield — the one that invites doubles and leaves acres open for singles. Consider the bigger outfields in baseball and how Holliday has done hitting into those open spaces the past three years and in his career:

Coors Field … .361/.669 (3-year) … .357/.645 (career)

PNC Park … .257/.457 (3-year) … .307/.480 (career)

Miller Park … .313/.594 (3-year) … .304/.543 (career)

Busch Stadium … .385/.872 (3-year) … .385/.872 (career)

Dolphin Stadium … .436/.872 (3-year) … .346/.673 (career)

Petco Park … .250/.406 (3-year) … .205/.365 (career)

Dodger Stadium … .296/.459 (3-year) … .259/.415 (career)

There is some interesting numbers there, but they are hard to divorce completely from the pitching staffs Holliday faced in those ballparks he didn’t call home. As Bernie explores in his blog (the link, again), there is an argument to be had that Holliday’s home/road splits are skewed by his division, which features two difficult ballparks to hit (Petco, Dodger) and a ballpark that muzzles righthanded hitters in AT&T Park (ask Pujols). KMOX’s Kevin Wheeler offered one quick calculation that supports the NL West factor.

Subtract Holliday’s games at Dodger Stadium and Petco this past season and his .308 road average spikes to .318 in the 198 other at-bats. His slugging percentage climbs from .486 to .500. In his career, he’s a .205 hitter at Petco and doing the Wheeler Subtraction on his career splits raises his career average from .280 to .294 and his slugging percentage jumps from .the .455 to .474.

The CSI shorthand: Holliday can hit. Has he benefited from playing half of his career so far at Coors Field? No doubt. Do his road splits stand out? Yes. But Holliday can hit. He has hit. He’s not a mile-high monster who wilts at sea level. Holliday can hit. He will hit.

The bigger question is will he re-sign.

His recent comments to The Denver Post about why he turned down an extension and may have thusly paved his way out of Colorado may offer an indication of the kind of place he’d like to land.

“I specifically don’t want to spend my career collecting paychecks and having October off,” Holliday told the Post last week. “I want to be in a situation where I feel like I can make the postseason every year, not only if the perfect storm comes together. I am not saying Colorado can’t do that. But approaching free agency and making decisions about being somewhere long term, you have to consider more than money. The money gets to the point, it’s a lot either way.”

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