Exit Poll: The Showdown for NL MVP (a sequel)
TOWER GROVE — We’ve had plenty of time to mull over the numbers and choose sides in the National League MVP race, one that is likely going to come down to a showdown between the raw power of Philadelphia Phillies’ first baseman Ryan Howard and the unwavering uncanny production of St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman Albert Pujols. It’s 2006 all over again. Only the one with a World Series ring coming his way his different.
Either Pujols or Howard is likely going to win the second NL MVP of his career.
Which one is the question below in the daily poll as awards week reaches its climax.
But first a little bit of history.
Regardless of who wins between Pujols and Howard — St. Louis star vs. St. Louis native — both are going to finish in the top five voting and keep alive two remarkable streaks. For Pujols, it will be the seventh time in an eight-year career that he’s finished in the top five in voting. For Howard, it will be the third time in three full seasons that he’s finished in the top five in voting. (In his Rookie of the Year season of 2005, Howard played in just 88 games.) These runs of top-five finishes to start a career are almost unmatched in NL history.
For an article in Monday’s paper about Howard’s candidacy for the MVP, I met back through the voting for the NL MVP, using and abusing Baseball-Reference.com, to see if anyone had won two MVPs in their first three full seasons. The answer: None. Howard would be the first. In fact, Howard and Pujols are doing things in the MVP votes that haven’t been done in decades. Consider some of these comparable feats:
- Cincinnati’s Frank McCormick finished in the top five in voting in his first three full seasons, from 1938 to ‘40, and he won the MVP in 1940.
- Hall of Famer Paul Waner won the NL MVP in 1927, his second season in the majors, but it was five more years before he returned to the voters’ top 10.
- Atlanta’s Chipper Jones finished in the top 20 in voting in each of his first eight seasons.
- Barry Bonds won his second MVP in his seventh season in the majors.
- Howard is the first National Leaguer to win the MVP the season after he won the Rookie of the Year, and only Cal Ripken Jr. has done it in the American League. But after his MVP, Ripken did not appear in the top 10 until six seasons later.
- Two American League players have won the MVP and Rookie of the Year in the same season. Fred Lynn did it in that landmark year of 1975, but only appeared in top 10 in MVP voting one more time in his career. Ichiro Suzuki did it back in 2001 for Seattle, but he didn’t return to the top 10 until 2004 and he’s only been their once since then.
- The great Hank Aaron finished in the top three in MVP voting in four of his first six seasons in the majors, and he won the award in 1957.
Win or lose the award today, Pujols will finish in the top 10 in voting for the eighth consecutive year, and a loss today will likely mean his fourth runnerup finish. A win for Howard would put him in that singular class of National Leaguers to win two MVPs in his first three full seasons. The only NL player to come was, of course, Stanley Frank Musial. A September callup, Musial had his first full season in the majors in 1942 and won his first MVP in 1943. He spent 1945 in the service and returned to win the MVP in 1946. That gave him two MVPs in his first four full major-league seasons.
It’s fitting that a couple ballplayers from St. Louis would be on the verge of joining the ballplayer from St. Louis in the snapshot of those (at least) two-time NL MVPs.
But seeing as how this is a blog that mostly draws Cardinals Nation — plus the rare jazz fan who gets Google’d to our doorstep — it would be predictable to post a poll asking who should win the NL MVP. Pujols would win in a runaway. Therefore, the pre-poll for Monday’s NL MVP announcement comes with a twist. Not, who SHOULD win, but WHO WILL WIN?
That’s the question posed here …
Loading …Explain why you think the 32 writers will veer that way in the comment section below.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I have faith that most writers will not award the MVP to a .251 hitter, will consider not only RBIs but also RBI opportunities, and will remember that without Chase Utley and Brad Lidge, Howard’s September surge would have been meaningless. If the Cards had a closer like Lidge, they would have made the playoffs too. Remember back in 2006-some MVP voters were swayed away from Pujols by his perceived stronger supporting cast (though Utley and Rollins finished in the MVP top ten, and Rolen and Edmonds did not). Now it should be Pujols’ turn - clearly the better season on a weaker (nevertheless contending) team. I believe Howard, if he finishes second, will be behind by a good margin.
All I have to say is 199 K’s and 250 Average. They shouldn’t be allowed to watch a ballgame ever again if Pujols doesn’t win MVP.
Justin S.
Lebanon, MO
Albert will win because most baseball experts would say that Howard is not even the most consistently dangerous or best hitter on the Phillies. If Albert had Chase Utley and the other bats in the lineup with him that Howard enjoys, he would be off the charts. Statistical comparisons are not that close.
Looks like the year Albert won last time….Ryan Howard = Andruw Jones.
As many years as Pujols has been second ,he’;s due for his second award with far superior numbers..The fourth place finish wasn’t due to a lack of his production and defense.He’s won gold gloves and silver slugger awards already..He should be a sinch.The losses late inthe season and all season long basically was beyond his control that is unless he also becomes a closer and late inning reliever..
Howard had more strike outs than hits. That’s not an MVP. Consider that and think about how much more likely they are to pitch to Howard with runners on than they are to Albert. It makes me crazy to even have these kind of discussions. Pujols is far and away the best player in the game. On top of that he hits when it counts - big games, late in close games, etc. There is no player more valuable to his team than Pujols. Which team would be hurt more, the Cardinals if they lost Pujols or the Phillies if they lost Howard? If Pujols does not win it will just prove once again that the ignorant people voting on this award really don’t know baseball. Pujols should have won in 2006 too. Compare the clutch stats from that year and you will again see that the voters have no clue who does what when it counts.
If Pujols played for the Dodgers or Yankees he would probably have 3-4 MVP’s already. It seems so biased to me that it is ridiculous.
I agree with the Dodgers, Yankees comment. It’s sad to see it like that, I mean what would Pujols have to do to actually be a clear winner at years end? .389, 57 HR, 163 RBI’s 114 Runs, 97 walks, etc.. just the most outrageous numbers ever? Jeez I guess these guys vote for the HOF too?
Lidge. He was the difference between the Phils and everyone else this year. The Cards finished behind, in their DIVISION, three other teams with lesser hitting and defense. (?), so what was Pujols there for? Valuable for What?
Howard would have been a lesser player with a similar problem except for Lidge.
So why not recognize the obvious…Lidge?
Pujols own words last year describing that the MVP should come from a playoff bound team.
However, even in the years that Barry Bonds won, Albert has been a more “valuable” player-minimal strikeouts. on-base percentage, slugging percentage. The most effective catalyst offensively for his team, or probably any team. I would have a problem with another 2nd place finish, when there is no clear winner.
Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, tie game, runner on 3rd.
Who do you want at the plate? Howard or Pujols?