Know your LOOGYs: A user’s guide to free agent Lefty Relievers
TOWER GROVE — As the doors to Major League Baseball’s free-agent marketplace swing open Friday, the St. Louis Cardinals plan a bee-line to the lefthanded reliever auction, where they will find plenty of other bidders looking to beef-up on that same side of the bullpen.
The Cardinals have been rather public with their plan to address holes on the left-side of the bullpen via free agency — because why deny what the depth chart reveals? Renovating the Cardinals’ bullpen is a must this winter, and there are those internally who believe that filling two vacancies with solid lefty relievers will help address a problem many attach to a hole in the ninth inning. It’s a fix-the-bridge approach to the bullpen. Pitching coach Dave Duncan is more direct with his interest in acquiring a lefty specialist (or LOOGY, a Lefty One-Out GuY):
He wants somebody who can come in and shut down an opponent’s left slugger, i.e. Ryan Howard.
A check around baseball reveals that the Cardinals are not alone. More than a handful of teams are also interested in adding a lefthander or two from the free-agent pool to their bullpen.
Supply meet demand.
Below is a list of 14 lefthanded free-agent pitchers, representing the supply. Beside each pitcher is his age, his three-year average against lefthanded batters (BA/OBP/SLG and total Ks in total ABs), his selection of pitchers, and his Dunn-Howard index. If one of the roles a lefty will have for the Cardinals is coming in to K a lefty slugger — like Prince Fielder — then why not check out what these free agents have done, if possible, against two of the bigger lefty sluggers, who also have pronounced splits. Hence, the stat showing how they’ve fared against Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard, or the Dunn-Howard index. (You may be surprised who scores relatively high on this quick-sketch stat.)
The pitchers are listed according to their ability, but also in the order they would best fit the Cardinals. That is the demand. But as we know the Cardinals’ interest in each will also be dictated by how much they command when that market opens and the bidders rush in …
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LHP Brian Fuentes
BRIAN FUENTES, 33: A type-A free agent who will cost the signing a team draft pick in addition to a hefty contract. In multiple ways, he fits the Cardinals needs — which is why they pursued him at the trade deadline this past season. Fuentes could be a closer now, a LOOGY later, or a closer now and later. Easily the most attractive and best fit for the Cardinals. But also intriguing to the Mets and many others. Ideal lefty. At what cost? … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .191/.260/.318; 68 Ks in 162 AB … Fastball, strikeout-changeup, slider. … Dunn-Howard: 0-for-3, 2 K.
JEREMY AFFELDT, 29: A type-B free agent and perhaps the best combination of good-fit and good-buy for the Cardinals. He could handle the role for several years to come, and there’s some thought that he could do well in the ninth inning, if asked. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .243/.315/.419; 59 Ks in 301 AB. … Fastball with a strikeout curveball. … Dunn-Howard: 1-for-5, 2 K.
WILL OHMAN, 31: Another of the lefties the Cardinals pursued at the trade deadline, and remember there were indications that the Cardinals would play against him one night in Atlanta and then bring him back to St. Louis the next. Has compelling numbers, arguably among the best. Has shown against Howard, for example. Knows the division. Lot to like if the price is reasonable, and another reliever who could fill the role for several years. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .194/.283/.313; 90 Ks in 278 AB. … Fastball with a strikeout slider. … Dunn-Howard: 5-for-19, 9 K.
JOE BEIMEL, 31: A type-B free agent who went 5-1 with a 2.02 ERA as a reliever for the LA Dodgers. Has just the right blend of being capable of doing more than lefty specialist and likely being at the right price to fit in the Cardinals’ budget. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .232/.274/.304; 58 Ks in 280 AB. … Fastball. … Dunn-Howard: 2-for-5, 1 K. … UPDATE: A baseball source told me this afternoon that the Cardinals have not yet expressed interest in Beimel, which offers some indication about where the Cardinals have focused their attention when it comes to lefties.
LHP Arthur Rhodes
ARTHUR RHODES, 39: In a season split between Seattle and Florida, the elder statesman of the job had 24 holds and a 2.04 ERA. He had 40 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings. Beyond the sturdy numbers and the known quantity of his career, his appeal would be the short-term commitment that he’d require. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .220/.295/.341; 40 Ks in 132 AB. … Fastball and a strikeout slider. … Dunn-Howard: 0-for-3, 2 K.
DENNYS REYES, 31: Had a 2.33 ERA, 17 holds, a 1.19 WHIP in his third year of a successful run with the Minnesota bullpen. The Twins reportedly are interested in bringing Reyes back, and they had him for $1 million this past season. He’s been reliable, but he’s also prone to plenty of walks. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .202/.265/.266; 63 Ks in 248 AB. … Fastball and leans on his slider as a strikeout pitch. … Dunn-Howard: 0-0.
RON VILLONE, 38: Is there anything wrong with an encore? It seemed to be that Villone’s statistics and his reputation with the fanbase was unfairly marred by a few mop-up appearances that he had. The strapping lefthander with the durable arm had to handle some innings that a lefty specialist normally wouldn’t. He was, in some ways, over-cast in other roles. Don’t buy it? Check the numbers. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: 194/.296/.329; 68 Ks in 258 AB. … Strikeout fastball, and a slider. But a former starter who has other pitches, when needed. … Dunn-Howard: 1-for-12, 7 K.
ALAN EMBREE, 38: A type-B free agent and veteran of the American League East grinder who has re-established himself with turns in San Diego and recently with Oakland. Had his option declined by the A’s. Has been used as a closer, as a middle reliever, as a specialist — all over the bullpen, really. And there’s something to be said for versatility, especially when it comes to complementing a more K-oriented LOOGY. His 846 career appearances rank among the all-time leaders. Check out his $3.1 million salary in 2008 to understand his value to the Oakland bullpen. Probably won’t be offered arbitration, so a little patience and he won’t cost a draft pick…. 3-year averages vs. lefties: .228/.285/.355; 58 Ks in 259 AB. … Fastball, slider. … Dunn-Howard: 1-for-2, 0 K.
LHP Trever Miller
TREVER MILLER, 35: Seems to commute between the Tampa Bay and Houston bullpens, having had two stints with each team. Some of his finer seasons came with the Astros, and he is a season and a half away from his 600th career appearance. Has the seasoning, to be sure. And locked insider his 4.43 career ERA is some telling numbers against lefthanded hitters. For context, he made $1.6 million with the Rays this past season. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .213/.294/.348; 91 Ks in 267 AB. … Fastball, made better with his changeup, and a slider. … Dunn-Howard: 2-for-7, 2 K.
BRIAN SHOUSE, 40: A type-B free agent who spent the season with Milwaukee and fits into the Rhodes mold — not much a commitment needed to add him as, say, the second lefty signed. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .208/.253/.299; 68 Ks in 264 AB. … Fastball, strikeout slider. … Dunn-Howard: 2-for-4, 0 K.
EDDIE GUARDADO, 38: There were legit indications last season that the Cardinals, having been unable to land Fuentes and unwilling to part with the necessary prospect to get Ohman, explored a deal for Everyday Eddie. Former closer. Comfortable in the lefthanded specialist role. Veteran. Has all the tea leaves of being another name to keep in mind, especially if the other lefties start migrating elsewhere. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .230/.281/.396; 31 Ks in 139 AB. … Fastball, strikeout slider. … Dunn-Howard: 1-for-2, 1 K.
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RICARDO RINCON, 38: No need to revisit the Rincon Era of Cardinals baseball, though he is featured prominently in the World Series championship photo with the trophy. …. 3-year averages vs. lefties: .150/.227/.500; 7 Ks in 20 AB. … Dunn-Howard: 0-for-2, 2 K. … KENT MERCKER, 40: Former Cardinal starter who has moved to a bullpen in recent years with Cincinnati. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .279/.338/.618; 9 Ks in 68 AB. … Dunn-Howard: 0-0. … CASEY FOSSUM, 30: Has completed the transition to the bullpen after early shots at starting, but doesn’t have the strikeout rate here and would be more of a depth signing than a difference signing. … 3-year averages vs. lefties: .304/.381/.463; 45 Ks in 270 ABs. … Dunn-Howard: 0-0.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Jeremy Affeldt. He K’ed 80 in 78.3 innings pitched. From what I saw of him this season, while he was a Cincy Red, he looks to have really good stuff. He looks to have good control as he walked 25 batters in 78.3 innings. The numbers are impressive, and what I’ve seen from him this year his stuff looks really good. The best, most affordable FA Loogy on the market this year, in my opinion.
Fuentes put up some great stats against LH hitters this season. No doubt. But, probably out of the price range of the Cards. And why sign him if you can get similar production from a guy like Affeldt who over the last three seasons, he hasn’t quite equaled Fuentes in production, but he is a cheaper option that will still dominate agaisnt LH batters. Plus, when he isn’t pitching reguarly at Great American Ballpark, one would think his stats could only improve. There is my case for signing Affeldt…
Look at the ages of most of those. Eight of them are 35 and over (if I counted correctly). And one of those is Villone - please don’t go there. It doesn’t matter what he did with Howard and Dunn. It was the others that he couldn’t handle as the year went on. I’m not crazy about the ages of most of the ones listed.
Everyone knows the Cards need a Getter-Done (3 up/3 down), CLOSER. Perhaps the kids will mature, but I am enclined to believe Duncans view in that the kids,(Perez/Motte)are not ready to shoulder that load ALONE. If the FO listens to Duncan,(which they should)then the Cards should go and get that guy. To me Fuentes is that guy. It’s well documented that had the back end of the bullpen closed the games we lost in those late inning frames we would have been in the post season in ‘08′. NUF SAID. As Nike says…’just do it”.
I hope no one here is holding their breath waiting for Fuentes…
Your stats don’t show the walks. While Vilone may have gotten lefties out when they put it in play, he walked just about everyone at the end of the season. Kept the averages down and the ABs, but not the runners on base. How do the WHIPs compare?
If you can show me a place that lists the intentional walks so that I can subtract those from the total walks, then I’d be game. Maybe it’s wrongheaded, but when looking at relievers I think the IBB is a factor to consider …
Going to update the above entry with some info … at 2:40 p.m.
dg
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The big trick is to get the Cards OJT G.M. to actually do something.
What’s missing from Villone’s numbers is not intentional walks, but the number of appearances in which he was brought in to face one batter, walked him, and then got pulled. That happened something like seven times this season, which accounts for about ten percent of his appearances. That is, one-tenth of the time he came in, walked a batter, and left. (He also gave up a home run to the awful Andruw Jones in a one-batter, no-out performance, though he was at least a RH hitter.) Why bring in a lefty to walk a lefty when a righty could do it just as easily? That was the most infuriating thing about Villone for me.
Left-handers know they don’t have to swing the bat against Ron Villone to get on base-6.66 BB/9
Regarding the comment about Villone walking nearly everyone toward the end and wanting to see the WHIP comparison. Well his overall season WHIP was 1.6+, but that doesn’t show the difference in LHB and RHB. Right now I’m too lazy to do all the math, but…
Against RHB : 121 PA’s / 21 BB’s / 2 IBB’s
Against LHB : 108 PA’s / 16 BB’s / 0 IBB’s
As for his increase in walking hitters at the end of the season….He walked 5 batters in 6 1/3 IP’s over 13 appearances and K’d 7 in the final 28 days of the season…with a 1.42 ERA.
All in all, if we were to pick up an Affeldt or another top Lefty pitcher that can be more than JUST a “LOOGY”…I’d be perfectly fine with Villone being signed as the official “LOOGY” for 09′.
Why don’t we look at someone like Randy Johnson? I know we are sick of signing “over the hill” pitchers, but it appears the D-backs can’t get anything done with him. It seems like he may be had at a reasonable price and could step up and be a good fill in at starter or could be used as a lefty specialist for a similar price of other purely lefty specialists. And lets be honest, there can’t be a lot of faith right now that Carp will be back and effective the whole year.
I’m for keeping Villone around. He will likely be a bargain..He’s already familiar with LaRussa and Duncan, and he did a lot more than what was expected of him over the course of the season. Use him in the right role and he’ll fill the bill.
Re-sign him and focus the money elsewhere.
Hey D. Gold—those third year averages–last year jeremy affeldt lefties hit .419 aganst him? That is poor if it’s true. Why didn’t you put the stats from the guy MO got for nothing from the Nationals–he had a good average against lefties last year didn’t he? Manning I think his name is—he could be better than several guys in the group above.
Several failed or ex-starters come to mind as well. Darren Oliver, maybe? Kei Igawa could be had as a salary dump, if anyone thinks he could handle the job.
Derrick,
I don’t understand why Toronto’s three LHRPs haven’t even been mentioned. Carlson is not even arby-eligible yet, Tallett has 2 years of arbitration left and Downs has 2009 and 2010 left on his contract for 7.75 Million total.
Not to mention LHRP B.J. Ryan …. who is their closer. Do you really think Toronto will carry all 4 lefties on their roster again??
KC TI,
Why are you such a hater of MO? Could you have done better in getting rid of Scott Rolen and gotten a better player in return in Glaus? What about the signing of Loshe and Lopez? Why don’t you post something of substance? I really don’t understand this MO bashing at all.
Back to the topic, I say go with either Ohman or Affeldt - Fuentes is going to be too costly with the other big market teams going after him. Plus, Ohman and Affeldt are a little younger.
Based on past history, don’t raise your expectations for a type “A” reliever,…..Mo, under orders, will pursue the Rincon, Mercker and Fossum
types…..then tell the media they really tried to acquire Fuentes, etc, and some more illogical B.S. to fool the fans……
Give me Affeldt. Look at those numbers away from the friendly confines of the Great American Ballpark last year…
1.77 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .203 BAA, 2 HR allowed (35.2 IP)
Probably not a long term closer but could probably fill that role if Perez or Motte aren’t ready for the gig.
I agree with Casey121 about RJ. With Carp’s uncertainty, he would be a great addition. He would probably only need a one year committment and shouldn’t cost over $10 million either. He might not make all of his starts but he should give us good production when he does. Although I would much rather see us go after Furcal if that’s an option.
Charlie Manning is the name of the lefty that the Cardinals picked off waivers, and his numbers have been well-covered. The Toronto pitchers were not listed above for the same reason Manning wasn’t mentioned — they are not free agents. This was an attempt to collect the info on free-agent lefties, and grade them out. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Not sure where the idea that lefties hit .419 off Affeldt last year came from. Lefties 2008 line against Affeldt was: .269/.294/.444.
That’s batting average/on-base percentage/slugging. Same as above.
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Sorry Derrick,
My reference to the Toronto Bullpen was only a rhetorical question about the off-season patter .. not the content of your blog here. It was kind of an open face question that I thought you could shine a little light on for me.
Thanks
What about the numbers and future status of tyler johnson?