Riffs: Considering the Matt Holliday Deal
TOWER GROVE — While reading the coverage of the deal sending Colorado Rockies outfielder and recent Cardinals-target Matt Holliday to Oakland — from the news of the trade, to the players headed to Denver, to Drew Litton’s cartoon — one thing stands out.
There isn’t a Ryan Ludwick in the bunch.
Any time there is a deal of this nature, especially one that we know the St. Louis Cardinals were interested/involved in, it offers up an opportunity to truly gauge where the Cardinals are with their minor-league system, their assets on hand and their willingness to part with those assets. For example, a year ago it was clear that the Cardinals didn’t have the purse to sit on the table with Detroit when Atlanta was taking bids on Edgar Renteria. (”What Renteria Teaches Us“.)
Clearly, in the names of players floated as being part of a Holliday deal, the best player considered was Ludwick. Not only did he have a breakthrough season with his 100 RBIs and 30-plus homers and one-single-short-of-.300 average, but Ludwick is also just entering the arbitration phase of his career. In Ludwick, as one person told me, Colorado had a replacement for Holliday to sell to its fanbase, one wrapped up for at least three more years and dressed with a tidy statistical bow. The final package of players Oakland is reportedly sending to Colorado does not include a Ludwick.
Not even close.
Of course, the Cardinals don’t really have a Greg Smith to offer, either.
To land Holliday, an interesting one-year rental for the Moneyball-era A’s, Oakland offered former closer Huston Street, starter Smith and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. All three have major-league experience, with Street having been the A’s closer for several years. Smith went 7-16 with a 4.16 ERA this past season. Gonzalez hit .242 with four home runs and 302 at-bats for Oakland this past season. Both Street & Smith — how’s that for a trade combo — have arm issues or arm concerns. Smith is coming off a routine procedure a few weeks ago to remove loose particles from his left elbow.
Finding equivalent players in the Cardinals’ organization is difficult.
There’s no Street that the Cardinals have to deal, and one of the young righthanded relievers is a more valuable chip than Street. There’s no Smith to deal, though a year from Jaime Garcia would be close to that piece, minus the 30 starts in the majors and plus some ability. Gonzalez has shown more power than Skip Schumaker in the minors, and he’s been described as a toolsy outfielder, a couple tiers or so below the Cardinals’ Colby Rasmus. He could be Daryl Jones-like in someways, but with major-league experiencec and Triple-A production already under his belt. Coming up with a comparable deal to illustrate the Cardinals hesitation to part with an undesignated three players is an imperfect science at best. But there is a faint outline from all of the reports (NOTE: this is pure, though educated, speculation and was likely not discussed at all; it’s merely connecting dots — needs to haves):
Oakland’s Street is … greater than … the Cardinals’ Mitchell Boggs
Oakland’s Smith is … less than … the Cardinals’ Kyle McClellan
Oakland’s Gonzalez is … akin to … the Cardinals’ Skip Schumaker
Is that the kind of deal the Cardinals’ should have made? Is it one they could have made? Probably not on both accounts. It’s a lot more to give up than Oakland did, and it certainly offers Colorado more years of control then they have over, say, Street. But while it gives the Rockies the center fielder, it doesn’t fill the Rockies late-inning needs like Street does or the instant backend-rotation starter like Smith (though McClellan is close). It’s a hard deal to mirror with the Cardinals’ collection of assets. And maybe that was the issue.
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“Boys of Summer” star Preacher Roe died Sunday, and while he was famous for being a Brooklyn Dodger, he also was a St. Louis Cardinal — for one game. His debut. Roe was reportedly recruited by Frank Rickey, Branch’s brother, and he made his debut in August 1938. There’s most about his brief major-league time as a Cardinal, but also his Cardinals’ roots over at his official website. Ah, the “Beech-Nut slider” …
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Cardinals first-round pick Brett Wallace went 4-for-5 on Monday and has cranked the dial from warming-up to sizzling at the Arizona Fall League. In his previous six games, Wallace is 13-for-28 and a 1.000 slugging percentage. He’s driven in 13 runs in that stretch, including a six-RBI game. … Tony Cruz continues to play well in Hawaii, improving at catcher. Jeff Luhnow visited the island recently to see Cruz, Blake King, Tyler Herron and the other Cardinals’ prospects there, and the farm director clocked Cruz’s throw to second at 1.87 seconds. … A lesser highlighted part of the Holliday news as the report that Oakland is interested in shortstop Rafael Furcal as its leadoff hitter. … Colorado is still in the mood to deal. … Even as they pursue Jake Peavy, the Cubs are believed to have offered Ryan Dempster a deal worth four years and $50 million. … The White Sox are dangling closer Bobby Jenks and Javier Vazquez. While Jenks is an appealing addition, Vazquez comes with a caveat: He’s owed $11.5 million in each of the next two seasons, and he has a limited no trade clause.
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THE (return of the) LINEUP
An attempt to restart a staple of last winter that was somewhat entertaining, here’s nine baseball books I have stacked here to read sometime this winter. Call it my Hot Stove resolution:
- The Universal Baseball Association Inc., J. Henry Waugh, Prop., by Robert Coover
- The Ticket Out, by Michael Sokolove
- Burying the Black Sox, by Gene Carney
- Crazy ‘08, by Cait Murphy
- Playing with the Enemy, by Gary W. Moore
- Wrecking Crew, by John Albert
- The Gashouse Gang, by John Heidenry
- Spalding’s World Tour, by Mark Lamster (really eager to read this one)
- The Given Day, by Dennis Lehane (From the author of Mystic River. Hey, its first portion is titled, “Babe Ruth in Ohio”, and there’s a section titled, “Babe Ruth and the Workers Revolution”)
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Back shortly with a look at the Dan Haren-Mark Mulder deal, the gift that keeps on giving.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
DG - Let me start off by saying you are my favorite Cards read bar none. That said, Skippy Schumaker is nowhere near equal to Carlos Gonzalez. Sure, could be if Carlos doesn’t turn a corner, but he is what 22 compared to Skippy’s 28? Maybe I am sniffing glue and reading old scouting reports but I have to say (while citing no statistical evidence I know) that the comparison does not seem apt at all… Sorry to poo poo.
No, no, please … shoot the comparison down. There was no way to fit the deal together. My thought was that Schumaker with a .300 average and the ability to play center field was a proven commodity for what the Rockies needed, and that weighed well against the toolsy upside of Gonzalez. They aren’t the same player, but they scratch comparable itches …
The following is an excerpt from a NY newspaper regarding the Yankees;
“We’re going to do what we do every year, and that’s try to field a championship team,” co-chairman Hal Steinbrenner said on Tuesday. “That’s not going to change. We know that we’ve got some weaknesses, and we’re going to fix the problems as best we can. If that means spending money, obviously that means spending money. The philosophy has not changed.”
…..Too bad DeWitt doesn’t follow suit
I am personally glad the Holiday trade did not get made. I am not convinced Holiday would be better than Ludwick outside of Coors. In my opinion, given the uncertainty with Carpenter, we need a quality starting pitcher worse than a right handed hitting outfielder that we might loose to free agency. I would like Mo to revisit the issue and talk to the Padres and see what could be done to get Peavy. I think the key is to try to find a team that needs outfield help and try to engineer something with them.
P.S. I really enjoy your column. Thanks.
I’ve been convienced that we tend to make too much of Holliday’s home/road splits. But, when Holliday will be playing half his games at a stadium like McAfee Colesium, opposed to Coors Field, you have to wonder what sort of effect this will have, don’t you?
“The White Sox are dangling closer Bobby Jenks…”
One wonders if he could be had relatively cheap… Maybe one of the plethora of 3b we stockpiled and something else (less substantial though)
Your primary conclusion, “There isn’t a Ryan Ludwick in the bunch” is right on! But, other teams get BIG players without giving up essentials from their current squad, whereas the Cardinals seem to believe they have to make huge sacrifices. A few examples: Texeira, Sabattia, Rich Harden were all obtained without giving up anybody essential in those trades. Instead, we were talking about giving up two highly productive players (Ludwick: .299 avg, 37HR; 113 RBIs; Schumacher 301, avg., 8 hrs., plus a AAA pitching prospect, M. Boggs) for Holliday.
Compare this to what the Oakland gave up: Gonzalez .242, 4 HR (302 at-bats) Huston and Smith, losing records, and ERA over 4, and both with arm concerns. Repeating your own logic, I cannot believe the Cardinals could not have gotten Holliday without giving up Ludwick, nor Rasmus (Gonzales no where in the class of prospects of Rasmus). By the way, is Phelps not a tradeable chip - he was after all the top HR producer in AAA last year, and still a Cardinal property (or am I wrong)? Seems to me Cardinals could have gotten Holliday without giving up the ship - I can see plenty of players/prospects equivalent to the 3 Oakland gave up.
Would love to hear your view.
Your primary conclusion, “There isn’t a Ryan Ludwick in the bunch” is right on! Other teams get BIG players without giving up essentials from their current squad, whereas the Cardinals seem to believe they have to make huge sacrifices: Texeira, Sabattia, Rich Harden were all obtained without giving up anybody essential in those trades. Instead, we were talking about giving up two highly productive players (Ludwick: .299 avg, 37HR; 113 RBIs; Schumacher 301, avg., 8 hrs., plus a AAA pitching prospect, M. Boggs) for Holliday.
Compare this to what the Oakland gave up: Gonzalez .242, 4 HR (302 at-bats) Huston and Smith, losing records, and ERA over 4, and both with arm concerns. Repeating your own logic, I cannot believe the Cardinals could not have gotten Holliday without giving up Ludwick, nor Rasmus (Gonzales potential no where near Rasmus. By the way, is Phelps not a tradeable chip - he was after all the top HR producer in AAA last year, and still a Cardinal property (or am I wrong)? Seems to me Cardinals could have gotten Holliday without giving up the ship - I can see plenty of players/prospects equivalent to the 3 Oakland gave up.
Would love to hear your view.
The Cardinals by all accounts could have had Vasquez a few years ago when he was pitching for Arizona - Jocketty was set to send Marquis and Suppan there but the owners would not offset any of the money so the deal was shot down.
What other trades did Jocketty have planned that got shot down? e.g. a local writer is suggesting that the Cardinals could have sent Marquis to the As in the Mulder deal, too.
I like trading for Bobby Jenks — good young closer, in fact I like trading for good young pitchers in general because you know we won’t sign high-priced free-agent pitchers nor does the track record indicate it’s a good idea (think Schmidt, Burnett and some of the other the Cardinals were rumored to be in on)
Here is a partial list, please add any you would trade for if you were MO including good young closers!
Scherzer
Sanchez
Baker
Soria
Jenks
Santana - Ervin
Johnson
P.S. Another option is to look at the Twins model for success — pay the closer - Nathan to ensure all the wins you can from a young team with good young pitchers! Sign Fuentes or Cruz or trade for a good closer!!
Sign Manny = Win Central