St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30: Pick Nos. 9 and 10
SOUTH GRAND — The first runoff of the Community Top 30 poll provided a clear-cut No. 7 prospect, outfielder Daryl Jones, but also made it clear that the runner-up, RHP Jess Todd, should be the No. 8 prospect. So after the threat of a day’s delay has been averted, and we move on to Nos. 9 and 10.
There isn’t much time to flesh out this blog entry today as the morning was spent at a High School Journalists convention and the afternoon has been spent on the phone. Yes, it’s free agency and that means lots and lots of dialing and tracking and sniffing and reporting and sleuthing and so on and so on. So while we track what lefthanded reliever is going to get the first offer pushed his way from the St. Louis Cardinals, here is the Community Top 30 so far.
- Colby Rasmus, OF
- Brett Wallace, 3B
- Chris Perez, RHP
- Bryan Anderson, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Jason Motte, RHP
- Daryl Jones, OF
- Jess Todd, RHP
- THIS WEEKEND
- THIS WEEKEND
So far, looking pretty good. But it gets trickier from here. I’ll leave the poll for Nos. 9 and 10 up over the weekend. That should leave plenty of time for right-in candidates and vibrant discussion, because once we cross the threshold into the next 10, things get a little less clear-cut. Seven candidates are listed below, and I encourage you to visit the resource links mentioned here (back in the first Comm Top 30 entry). Also, Kevin Goldstein will have his Top 11 up shortly over at Baseball Prospectus — just in time for the Comm Top 30 to measure its 11 against his.
The polls:
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Additional Prospect-related news: Baseball America is scheduling me for a chat about the Cardinals Top 10 and the forthcoming publication of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
Nico Vasquez. I like everything I know about him and rate his potential ahead of Kozma and Greene.
I am sure you are “write”, but I think this is “rong”: right-in candidates. ;>)
How far should we drop Garcia? If he was healthy he is definitely top 10 material, but being able to stay healthy is a legitimate consideration.
No, I meant what I wrote. Nice of some one to notice, though.
Wow, tough choices to make on this particular poll…
I like Boggs, I think he is a smart pitcher, and a definite upgrade over Pineiro as a 5th starter. I know he got knocked around a bit in a few of his starts in his brief time with the Cards, but he is a Dave Duncan type pitcher, and again I think he can provide the Cardinals a better shot at winning when he starts than Pineiro could. But, I had to go with Garcia as a my #9 prospect.
If he can stay healthy, and the Cards don’t rush him back from his surgery too soon, then I think Garcia’s value to the Cards as a LH starter could be huge.
DG, this is not a write-in vote, but on these polls where will we begin to see Nico Vasquez? It is exciting to see that potential speed and energy that he could bring if things work out and he makes to the majors as a Cardinal. I’m not suggesting that he is a better prospect than the Candidates to chose from, but isn’t it about time he joins the list of candidates?
Garcia would definitely be in my top 5 if healthy but
considering the severity of his injury he is almost
certainly 2 years away from the big leagues now so I
am dropping him into the bottom half of the poll.
Lynn, Vasquez and Freeman should start to receive some
consideration imho.
What is the state of Garcia’s health right now? The last I heard he was considering surgery for his elbow. If he did have surgery, that would effect his standing IMO. I voted Boggs @ 9. Mortenson could be so much higher but his control is a major issue.
Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery on Sept. 5th, he could potentially come back and be better than ever…that is if the Cards don’t rush him and bring him back too soon.
DG: Write on.
Boggs only has value as a middle reliever– and given the other RHRP on the farm, he drops. I keep Garcia @ 8-9 given how thin LH starters are in the organization. Niko has to get some run as one of the few promising middle infielders. Kozma is from my high school but I just don’t see him hitting enough.
I don’t think you can rank prospects based upon the team’s need.
I feel the best case scenario for Garcia is that he is able to
pitch in one of the Fall leagues next year and then rounds into
shape with a half-season in the minors and is with the big league
club at the All-Star break. Much more likely is that he isn’t able
to contribute until 2011. Based on this I can’t rank him in the top
ten despite his talent.
I think it’s time to start taking a closer look at Nico Vasquez as being amongst our top prospects - albeit still in the low minors.
Isn’t it funny how some prospects will drop when the hype is off??
I do not have Boggs in my top 10. The player talent pool is getting a little deep for him to be in the top 10 and is rising yet…IMO.
My vote is for Scott Gorgen. He will be next year’s Jess Todd. I expect to see him in Springfield by the end of the year. His rookie season was dominant and outstanding.
Garcia has a much higher ceiling than Boggs despite his injury. Boggs is widely seen, at best, as a RHRP of a swingman variety much like Thompson. You won’t see other teams breaking down the door to acquire Boggs. Garcia without the injury and without the organization strengths/weaknesses would be #3 or so….
Shane Robinson should be in the discussion of top 10 prospects. He is another Skip Schumaker with a lot more speed. If you go to Springfield and Memphis games you will understand the comment. He had an incredible year at AA before being promoted to AAA. He was also the NCAA player of the year at Florida State in 2005. He is carrying over his performance to the AFL and has tremendous upside. Robinson is better than Brian Barton and will be better than Skip in a year or two.
Adam Reifer
Nico Vasquez for # 9
Richard Castillo at #9. Dominated the Midwest League this year, despite being its *youngest* starting pitcher. Better than 3-1 K/BB ratio, and an ERA of 2.62 (1.99 over the final month, which was 6 starts and 40 innings). In 2007 he posted a 1.72 ERA in the Venezuelan Summer League, as well. Solid velocity–especially for an 18-year-old–at 88-90, and a heckuva hook.
I’d love to know your firsthand opinion of the kid, Derrick, as you must’ve seen him up close. Thanks!
I did not see Richard Castillo in person. I saw the numbers. I’ve spoken with people who did see him put up some of those numbers. And I’ve read a few scouting reports about him. Lots to like for his age. He already touches 90 regularly and will gain velocity as he gains strength. His curve ball is good enough to be an out pitch. And his control is beyond his age. Good ingredients. But, to me, he has to have more production than promise to be in the top 10. Otherwise the system isn’t as deep in pitchers as the Cardinals say …
DG - When are you declaring the winner and moving on to the next set?
Stldrakelaw,
Good question. I’m waiting on one more element for the next entry so that it can be more than just a poll for No. 11. I also am trying to come up with a better way to do the poll than two at a time. After the top 10, we’re now going to shift into one poll per entry — but only one per day? That could go too slow.
Plans are in the works. But we’ll move until No. 11 once I receive an element of the next entry from a baseball-covering friend …
Thanks for the patience,
dg
dg - Thanks for the update. I think what we need is a group of players to whittle down for the next few picks.
Thanks for the (prompt & thorough) Castillo response, D.G.. An 18-year-old who already has a plus secondary pitch he can control is a very nice asset. At the risk of belaboring the point, I’m wondering if you could clarify what you meant by “…he has to have more production than promise to be in the top 10.”
The young man has made 23 professional starts, averaged just over 6 innings per start, and posted a cumulative ERA of 2.11–all while pitching exclusively against hitters older than himself (often much older). Can’t get more productive than that. Are you saying you need to see Castillo succeed at AA before considering him a plausible elite prospect? Or just more starts, regardless of level? Needing more production than promise seems like a critique that fits guys like Ottovino or Mortensen, who both posted mediocre (or worse) numbers in 2008, rather than Castillo.
Thanks for your time, Derrick!