St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30: Vote for No. 12
TOWER GROVE — There’s a certain amount of hesitation here to close the voting for the No. 11 prospect because it is so close between the rising comet Niko Vasquez and blue-chip sinkerballer Clayton Mortensen. Both have received about 25 percent of the vote, and I’ve been refreshing all morning to see if there are precincts still logging in their votes …
And with 265 votes in, Vasquez edges Mortensen by a slim margin of six.
A quick recap of Bird Land’s St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30 prospects:
- Colby Rasmus, OF
- Brett Wallace, 3B
- Chris Perez, RHP
- Bryan Anderson, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Jason Motte, RHP
- Daryl Jones, OF
- Jess Todd, RHP
- Mitchell Boggs, RHP
- Jaime Garcia, LHP
- Niko Vasquez, SS
Cardinals' OF Jon Jay (Source: Hemi's Autograph Collection)
Somebody in the last thread asked how close a player is to the majors factors into the Baseball America rankings. I think when it comes to looking at the top 10 or maybe even the top 20, you keep a sliding scale in your mind — how close a player is, how high that player’s ceiling is, how well he’s done so far in his career.
Think of it as the Three-P Approach (patent pending):
- POTENTIAL — A player’s ceiling, how good a player he could be when he arrives in the majors. Is he a No. 4 starter? A closer? An everyday player? A potential All-Star. What does this player project to be? You could also call this “P” Promise.
- PRODUCTION — What the player has done so far as a pro in key and telling statistics.
- PROXIMITY — How close that player is to being in the majors and how close he is to making an impact in the majors.
A fourth “P” could be thrown in for consideration — and sometimes is — and that’s “Pick”, as in where the player was picked in the draft. There is some favoritism paid to first-round picks and sandwich picks because the assumption is they are better prospects or also have more Promise than say a 47th-round pick with gobs of Production.
Cardinals' INF Allen Craig, in college days
That’s a long way to this answer: Yes, proximity does matter. I think you can see how it matters in this Community Top 30 as well. Freese is highly ranked, and he’s closer to the majors than, say, Allen Craig. Wallace is highly ranked because he’s accelerated his pace to the majors. And that is why No. 12 could be such an interesting vote.
Mortensen is clearly the favorite going in because of all the votes he’s received since we were talking top five, but there is momentum afoot for Jon Jay and a few others. Proximity is the trait these two share, as both could easily be September callups. Either could be an injury away from being in the majors, like Mike Parisi or Joe Mather were this past season. I imagine the votes will be fairly close from here on. Below the poll is an OK video of the newest name on the poll.
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The addition to this week’s poll, per the Write-In requests last time, is P.J. Walters. The righthander was the Cardinals’ organization pitcher of the year in 2007. He throws a changeup, and according to a few coaches this past fall, Walters will “pitch in the majors as a starter.” He profiles as a mid- to back-rotation starter. Using the Three-P Approach (patent pending) mentioned above, Walters …
- POTENTIAL — As a starter. Could be a No. 4, maybe No. 3. Has enough quality pitches, and that exceptional changeup, to stay a starter.
- PRODUCTION — After a 12-6, 2.55 ERA turn through three levels in 2007, Walters continued to rise, reaching the Triple-A rotation this past season. HE went 10-6, 4.50 in 29 starts over two levels, pitching 158 innings, allowing 158 hits and striking out 156 batters. The K’s at each level are good signs. Overall, he’s 22-12 in the past two seasons.
- PROXIMITY — A contender for the 2010 rotation. A favorite for September callup.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I think Kozma is worth more than people are giving him credit for. People think he can stick at SS, and he’ll probably start next season at AA. I like Greene’s tools, but he doesn’t make much contact and is getting old for his level.
Just wondering, has Adam Ottovino”s poor performance dropped from consideration for the top 15? What about Lance Lynn? Most reports
I have read say he is probably a back of the rotation starter but
so polished as to be a rapid riser.
Those are two good names, and there’s no reason why they won’t pop up in the poll as we near No. 15. I have been trying to confine the list of options to seven with a write in vote. First, we’ve been told that seven is a mystical number when it comes to polls, and second, it’s a manageable size. Please tell if you think otherwise.
Lynn will shoulder innings. Durability is a tool. No doubt.
Ottavino struggled. Looked real sharp in spring training — remember we put him on the cover of our baseball preview section — and then stumbled into some mechanical issues. He’s reworked his delivery and has improved according to some reports out of the AFL. He’s a keep-an-eye on guy wherever he ranks, because he has the talent to move.
dg
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Agreed, Greene’s time is running out. The guy is 25 and will turn 26 in August. How much longer does he have to prove himself?
My vote was cast for Mortensen. As far as I know, the main concern with Mortensen is his control. He started 25 games between his time at Springfield and in Memphis and in that time of 25 starts walked a total of 64 batters. But, his stuff certainly appears to be good enough, if he can learn to command his FB, he should be fine.
DG, thanks for posting about the “Three-P” approach. When looking at prospects and ranking them due you put a special emphasis on any specific “three-p”. Or do they each hold equal value in determining the ranking of a prospect?
I try not to lean too heavily on “proximity”, though it’s tempting. Production and potential/promise are big prongs of any prospect ranking. It’s a sliding scale to me. High on potential, low on production, still deserves to be ranked. High production, low potential, still deserves to be considered, and probably should have his potential re-evaluated.
The key is to come up with your own way to weigh the evidence. Teams have their ways, and every so often we’ll see hints of what they value. With the Cardinals we see that in the drafting and development of their starting pitchers. The Cardinals will probably get more of these starting pitchers to the majors than some other teams, but a few of those teams that get a few prospect pitchers to the majors will have a high-watt prospect pitcher that makes it …
It’s a very obvious risk-reward case study.
dg
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I probably would tend not to use “proximity” to the majors when looking at prospects. I’d tend to lean more towards “production” and “potential”, with more of an emphasis on “production”.
Mortensen is running away with the twelve spot, thus far. It isn’t even close…
I voted for Walters, I like Mortensen as well, but from the production standpoint Walters has lead our minor leagues in innings and K’s the last 2 yrs. He and Mortensen have a higher potential to be starters than Boggs IMO, who by the way is a year older.
Mortensen fits the groundball pitcher type that Duncan loves but his production is behind Walters to this point in his career. Admittedly Walters walk and homerun rates rose this past year but that could be an adjustment issue to AAA, not a regression we hope.
DG: I suggest another factor (or possibly a modification of the PROXIMITY factor): level/age. Greene and Freese are both at AAA, but both were late getting there. I propose baseline ages of 19 for Rookie ball, 20 for short-season A. 21-24 for Low A through AAA. I give pitchers an extra year at each level. A player who succeeds at a level when his age is below the baseline gets extra credit. I deduct for being overage at level.
I vote for Allen Craig for No. 12, but Mortensen would also be a good pick.
I have never seen P. J. Walters. Does he compare to Bob Tewksbury? Tewks pitched very well without a good fastball. His breaking pitches were good, but not great. He went a long way on good control.
Double J get’s no love!!!
Steve Hill? A good hitting Catcher doesn’t come along too often…