St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30: Vote for No. 12
TOWER GROVE — There’s a certain amount of hesitation here to close the voting for the No. 11 prospect because it is so close between the rising comet Niko Vasquez and blue-chip sinkerballer Clayton Mortensen. Both have received about 25 percent of the vote, and I’ve been refreshing all morning to see if there are precincts still logging in their votes …
And with 265 votes in, Vasquez edges Mortensen by a slim margin of six.
A quick recap of Bird Land’s St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30 prospects:
- Colby Rasmus, OF
- Brett Wallace, 3B
- Chris Perez, RHP
- Bryan Anderson, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Jason Motte, RHP
- Daryl Jones, OF
- Jess Todd, RHP
- Mitchell Boggs, RHP
- Jaime Garcia, LHP
- Niko Vasquez, SS
Cardinals' OF Jon Jay (Source: Hemi's Autograph Collection)
Somebody in the last thread asked how close a player is to the majors factors into the Baseball America rankings. I think when it comes to looking at the top 10 or maybe even the top 20, you keep a sliding scale in your mind — how close a player is, how high that player’s ceiling is, how well he’s done so far in his career.
Think of it as the Three-P Approach (patent pending):
- POTENTIAL — A player’s ceiling, how good a player he could be when he arrives in the majors. Is he a No. 4 starter? A closer? An everyday player? A potential All-Star. What does this player project to be? You could also call this “P” Promise.
- PRODUCTION — What the player has done so far as a pro in key and telling statistics.
- PROXIMITY — How close that player is to being in the majors and how close he is to making an impact in the majors.
A fourth “P” could be thrown in for consideration — and sometimes is — and that’s “Pick”, as in where the player was picked in the draft. There is some favoritism paid to first-round picks and sandwich picks because the assumption is they are better prospects or also have more Promise than say a 47th-round pick with gobs of Production.
Cardinals' INF Allen Craig, in college days
That’s a long way to this answer: Yes, proximity does matter. I think you can see how it matters in this Community Top 30 as well. Freese is highly ranked, and he’s closer to the majors than, say, Allen Craig. Wallace is highly ranked because he’s accelerated his pace to the majors. And that is why No. 12 could be such an interesting vote.
Mortensen is clearly the favorite going in because of all the votes he’s received since we were talking top five, but there is momentum afoot for Jon Jay and a few others. Proximity is the trait these two share, as both could easily be September callups. Either could be an injury away from being in the majors, like Mike Parisi or Joe Mather were this past season. I imagine the votes will be fairly close from here on. Below the poll is an OK video of the newest name on the poll.
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The addition to this week’s poll, per the Write-In requests last time, is P.J. Walters. The righthander was the Cardinals’ organization pitcher of the year in 2007. He throws a changeup, and according to a few coaches this past fall, Walters will “pitch in the majors as a starter.” He profiles as a mid- to back-rotation starter. Using the Three-P Approach (patent pending) mentioned above, Walters …
- POTENTIAL — As a starter. Could be a No. 4, maybe No. 3. Has enough quality pitches, and that exceptional changeup, to stay a starter.
- PRODUCTION — After a 12-6, 2.55 ERA turn through three levels in 2007, Walters continued to rise, reaching the Triple-A rotation this past season. HE went 10-6, 4.50 in 29 starts over two levels, pitching 158 innings, allowing 158 hits and striking out 156 batters. The K’s at each level are good signs. Overall, he’s 22-12 in the past two seasons.
- PROXIMITY — A contender for the 2010 rotation. A favorite for September callup.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I think Kozma is worth more than people are giving him credit for. People think he can stick at SS, and he’ll probably start next season at AA. I like Greene’s tools, but he doesn’t make much contact and is getting old for his level.
Just wondering, has Adam Ottovino”s poor performance dropped from consideration for the top 15? What about Lance Lynn? Most reports
I have read say he is probably a back of the rotation starter but
so polished as to be a rapid riser.
Those are two good names, and there’s no reason why they won’t pop up in the poll as we near No. 15. I have been trying to confine the list of options to seven with a write in vote. First, we’ve been told that seven is a mystical number when it comes to polls, and second, it’s a manageable size. Please tell if you think otherwise.
Lynn will shoulder innings. Durability is a tool. No doubt.
Ottavino struggled. Looked real sharp in spring training — remember we put him on the cover of our baseball preview section — and then stumbled into some mechanical issues. He’s reworked his delivery and has improved according to some reports out of the AFL. He’s a keep-an-eye on guy wherever he ranks, because he has the talent to move.
dg
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Agreed, Greene’s time is running out. The guy is 25 and will turn 26 in August. How much longer does he have to prove himself?
My vote was cast for Mortensen. As far as I know, the main concern with Mortensen is his control. He started 25 games between his time at Springfield and in Memphis and in that time of 25 starts walked a total of 64 batters. But, his stuff certainly appears to be good enough, if he can learn to command his FB, he should be fine.
DG, thanks for posting about the “Three-P” approach. When looking at prospects and ranking them due you put a special emphasis on any specific “three-p”. Or do they each hold equal value in determining the ranking of a prospect?
I try not to lean too heavily on “proximity”, though it’s tempting. Production and potential/promise are big prongs of any prospect ranking. It’s a sliding scale to me. High on potential, low on production, still deserves to be ranked. High production, low potential, still deserves to be considered, and probably should have his potential re-evaluated.
The key is to come up with your own way to weigh the evidence. Teams have their ways, and every so often we’ll see hints of what they value. With the Cardinals we see that in the drafting and development of their starting pitchers. The Cardinals will probably get more of these starting pitchers to the majors than some other teams, but a few of those teams that get a few prospect pitchers to the majors will have a high-watt prospect pitcher that makes it …
It’s a very obvious risk-reward case study.
dg
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I probably would tend not to use “proximity” to the majors when looking at prospects. I’d tend to lean more towards “production” and “potential”, with more of an emphasis on “production”.
Mortensen is running away with the twelve spot, thus far. It isn’t even close…
I voted for Walters, I like Mortensen as well, but from the production standpoint Walters has lead our minor leagues in innings and K’s the last 2 yrs. He and Mortensen have a higher potential to be starters than Boggs IMO, who by the way is a year older.
Mortensen fits the groundball pitcher type that Duncan loves but his production is behind Walters to this point in his career. Admittedly Walters walk and homerun rates rose this past year but that could be an adjustment issue to AAA, not a regression we hope.
DG: I suggest another factor (or possibly a modification of the PROXIMITY factor): level/age. Greene and Freese are both at AAA, but both were late getting there. I propose baseline ages of 19 for Rookie ball, 20 for short-season A. 21-24 for Low A through AAA. I give pitchers an extra year at each level. A player who succeeds at a level when his age is below the baseline gets extra credit. I deduct for being overage at level.
I vote for Allen Craig for No. 12, but Mortensen would also be a good pick.
I have never seen P. J. Walters. Does he compare to Bob Tewksbury? Tewks pitched very well without a good fastball. His breaking pitches were good, but not great. He went a long way on good control.
Double J get’s no love!!!
Steve Hill? A good hitting Catcher doesn’t come along too often…
I also propose a new “p”. Position. It may be considered a subset of proximity. If you are a first baseman in the cards organization and can’t be viewed as a potential at any other position you have no future here. But a decent middle infielder might have a real shot, now. For this reason I voted for Greene. Kozma or Vasquez have higher ceilings, but Greene has the potential to be a Cardinal sooner.
Thank you, DG, for giving us the opportunity to participate in this poll.
I dont understand the regression of Kozma in the rankings. This guy was regarded by many as the top middle infield prospect of the 07 draft and had a very solid first professional year at low A. I think his stint at palm beach is hurting his ranking.
I really don’t get the “no love for Kozma” thing going on here, either.
I am not so certain that Kozma regressed as others progressed. Wallace and Vasquez are new to the system and thus couldn’t be ranked last year. Todd, Motte, Freese and Daryl Jones had breakout seasons and thus shot up in the rankings. I also believe that Barton was the only top 10 prospect who made the majors and lost his rookie status, so nobody moved on to free up positions for the newcomers.
Kozma hasn’t slipped, but he stalled and others passed him (Daryl Jones) and still others joined (Wallace and Vasquez).
P for position is important. Corner spots are not as valuable as down the middle. If you’re capable of playing good defense in center, second, shortstop or catcher, your value is enhanced. Power is another P; it is the single best tool. Kozma gets extra points for playing shortstop and he loses points for lack of power. Jones can play center field, but he is likely to be a left-fielder, lead-off type. He advanced in most parts of his game, including his power.
Pitchers are hard to compare to position players, but starters and closer prospects outrank set-up relievers. Lefties are needed and rare, so they get an edge if they are otherwise equal. Power isn’t as important for a left-handed pitcher (Nick Additon, for example).
Greg Maddux is one of the rarest birds — a right-handed Ace who lacks exceptional power. Mortensen and Walters might be such rarities (Mortensen has more power than Walters) but a final P is performance.
Tyler Greene (and Albert Pujols) is a perfect example why we should largely if not entirely ignore where a player is drafted–once they have any sort of professional track record.
Albert Pujols, the greatest ballplayer of his generation, couldn’t even crack BA’s overall top 40, despite a dominating performance, both offensively AND defensively in his one minor league season. (Recall that Albert was the best hitter in the age-appropriate Midwest League, and chosen as best defensive 3rd baseman in the league, and the best infield arm in the entire league.)
But Pujols was ranked lower than such, um, future stars as Corey Patterson (#2 overall), Jon Rauch (4), Ryan Anderson (8), Drew Henson (14), Chin-Hui Tsao (15), Antonio Perez (16), Alex Escobar (18), Jerome Williams (19), and Bobby Bradley (20). And that’s just the busts and mediocrities in the top 20. Why was one of the greatest players of *all* time ranked so far below those guys, despite a spectacular minor league season? Because Albert Pujols wasn’t a high draft pick.
Where a player is drafted = perception.
How a player performs professionally = reality.
Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus systematically compares current minor league performances to all past performances by other hitters, and generates estimates of future MLB production. Here’s the Peak Davenport Translations for (high draft pick) Tyler Greene, what Greene projects to do in his prime:
From AA .640 OPS
From AAA .611 OPS
On the other hand, here’s the projected prime of Pete Kozma: .769 OPS. (Fellow StL middle infielders Domnit Bolivar & Donovan Solano also figure to hit much, much better than T. Greene–and like Kozma, both Bolivar and Solaano are considered plus defenders.)
On the day Tyler Greene was drafted, he was considered a raw, high risk pick because of his inability to control the strikezone throughout his college career. He hasn’t panned out, unfortunately. The huge flaw in college has proven to be a bridge too far for Greene. Simply put, the pick now looks to be a mistake.
How does NIck Additon not get mentioned?
2008 Season
The only pitcher in the St. Louis Cardinals organization to pick up two of the organization’s Pitcher or Player of the Month, in 2008, Additon put together one of the best seasons among pitchers in the Cardinal’s farm system. Nick started the season at Quad Cities, making 25 appearances, including 19 starts, posting a record of 9-5 with an ERA of 2.50, while holding opposing batters to a .214 batting average. He finished the season with Palm Beach, appearing in three games, earning two wins, while holding the Class-A advance hitters to a .167 batting average.
2007 Season
Nick split playing time between Johnson City and Batavia posting a combined record of 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA. Named Appalachian League Pitcher of the Week for the week of 7/2-8 as he allowed just one earned run for the week, giving up three hits in five innings against first-place Elizabethton on 7/4 before three scoreless innings of work against Bristol on 7/8.
Career Notes
A no-hitter? Additon combined for nine innings of no hit ball between two appearances, the first being four no-hit innings in relief on May 29th and then five innings of no-hit ball in his next start, because of the tandem rotation system at Quad Cities.
Additon spent one season at Indian River Community College, going 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA in 12 appearances. He led the staff with 36 strikeouts in 53 innings while walking 19 and allowing 52 hits.
Player Awards
Scout.com Quad Cities Starter of the Year 2008
Cardinals Minor League Pitcher of the Month August 2008
Birdhouse Pitcher of the Month June 2008
Cardinals Minor League Pitcher of the Month June 2008
FSL Pitcher of the Week (08/18-24/08)
Midwest League Pitcher of the Week (6/2-8, 2008)
“A fourth “P” could be thrown in for consideration — and sometimes is — and that’s “Pick”, as in where the player was picked in the draft. There is some favoritism paid to first-round picks and sandwich picks because the assumption is they are better prospects or also have more Promise than say a 47th-round pick with gobs of Production.”
I guess that means that the 42nd pick in the 1971 draft (Keith Hernandez) didn’t have much hope since the #1 pick (1B Ed Kurpiel) had such high expectations…..