TOWER GROVE — There’s a certain amount of hesitation here to close the voting for the No. 11 prospect because it is so close between the rising comet Niko Vasquez and blue-chip sinkerballer Clayton Mortensen. Both have received about 25 percent of the vote, and I’ve been refreshing all morning to see if there are precincts still logging in their votes …

And with 265 votes in, Vasquez edges Mortensen by a slim margin of six.

A quick recap of Bird Land’s St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30 prospects:

1. Colby Rasmus, OF
2. Brett Wallace, 3B
3. Chris Perez, RHP
4. Bryan Anderson, C
5. David Freese, 3B
6. Jason Motte, RHP
7. Daryl Jones, OF
8. Jess Todd, RHP
9. Mitchell Boggs, RHP
10. Jaime Garcia, LHP
11. Niko Vasquez, SS

Somebody in the last thread asked how close a player is to the majors factors into the Baseball America rankings. I think when it comes to looking at the top 10 or maybe even the top 20, you keep a sliding scale in your mind — how close a player is, how high that player’s ceiling is, how well he’s done so far in his career.

Think of it as the Three-P Approach (patent pending):

• POTENTIAL — A player’s ceiling, how good a player he could be when he arrives in the majors. Is he a No. 4 starter? A closer? An everyday player? A potential All-Star. What does this player project to be? You could also call this “P” Promise.
• PRODUCTION — What the player has done so far as a pro in key and telling statistics.
• PROXIMITY — How close that player is to being in the majors and how close he is to making an impact in the majors.

A fourth “P” could be thrown in for consideration — and sometimes is — and that’s “Pick”, as in where the player was picked in the draft. There is some favoritism paid to first-round picks and sandwich picks because the assumption is they are better prospects or also have more Promise than say a 47th-round pick with gobs of Production.

That’s a long way to this answer: Yes, proximity does matter. I think you can see how it matters in this Community Top 30 as well. Freese is highly ranked, and he’s closer to the majors than, say, Allen Craig. Wallace is highly ranked because he’s accelerated his pace to the majors. And that is why No. 12 could be such an interesting vote.

Mortensen is clearly the favorite going in because of all the votes he’s received since we were talking top five, but there is momentum afoot for Jon Jay and a few others. Proximity is the trait these two share, as both could easily be September callups. Either could be an injury away from being in the majors, like Mike Parisi or Joe Mather were this past season. I imagine the votes will be fairly close from here on. Below the poll is an OK video of the newest name on the poll.

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The addition to this week’s poll, per the Write-In requests last time, is P.J. Walters. The righthander was the Cardinals’ organization pitcher of the year in 2007. He throws a changeup, and according to a few coaches this past fall, Walters will “pitch in the majors as a starter.” He profiles as a mid- to back-rotation starter. Using the Three-P Approach (patent pending) mentioned above, Walters …

• POTENTIAL — As a starter. Could be a No. 4, maybe No. 3. Has enough quality pitches, and that exceptional changeup, to stay a starter.
• PRODUCTION — After a 12-6, 2.55 ERA turn through three levels in 2007, Walters continued to rise, reaching the Triple-A rotation this past season. HE went 10-6, 4.50 in 29 starts over two levels, pitching 158 innings, allowing 158 hits and striking out 156 batters. The K’s at each level are good signs. Overall, he’s 22-12 in the past two seasons.
• PROXIMITY — A contender for the 2010 rotation. A favorite for September callup.

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