Pete Kozma reminds me a lot of David Eckstein. I personally think that he will be a better hitter than David, but will never put up the high homeruns and RBI’s that everyone raves about. From what I have read, he is a solid fielder and from what I saw last year an above average hitter. He struggled moving up to high A but I expect him to do better at that level this year. I think too many Cardinal funs are still crying about drafting Kozma instead of Porcello!

Thanks DG, nothing like influencing a poll. I’ve had the pleasure of seeing Kozma play at the QC a few times this year. He just never seems to come up with the big hit when needed. Eck always seemed to come through in those situations. I just find it hard to believe he has more value to the cards than an Allen Craig, who if anything could be a good trade chip.

It’s nice to see Fransisco Samuel on the list…

My vote went to Kozma. The main question is his bat. I agree with you there. You make a good argument in favor of Kozma, and it sounds like he is the type of player that won’t blow you away with great stats, but at the end of the season you’ll look back and see all the “little things” he did over the course of 162 games.

I still just don’t see him as an everyday SS. From what I’ve heard he doesn’t have the type of glove that will earn him a spot as an everyday SS. In other words, his glove isn’t the type that a team can sacrifice some offensive production for. Am I wrong, in suggesting that he has a very, very solid glove, but not a great glove? Thoughts, DG?

Also the middle infielder within the system that is most exciting to me has to be Niko Vasquez. Looks like he has some pop in his bat, and is solid on D. Here’s a thought: It is not that far out of the question to consider switching Kozma to 2B. Traditionally 2B isn’t an offensive position, it would be a position that Kozma could bring his solid D and smart baseball play and not be expected to produce.

DG, one more thing…here are a couple of players I’m curious about as far as candidates for the poll: Nick Addition and Brian Barden.

Allen Craig and Jon Jay both deserve more love. Personally I still think Craig is a better player than Freese. Doing these rankings every year really highlights how deep the system has become. In years past, low minors guys would be discussed and ranked at these spots. Now it is mostly guys who are past A-ball. A name that should come up soon is Deryk Hooker. Solid command and strikeout rates as he continues to move up the ladder.

There for awhile it didn’t look like I influenced the poll at all, and if you were to ask my opinion I would say there are two excellent candidates for this spot — Jay and Kozma — both of whom probably could fit in the top 10.

Great glove? It’s possible. He’s athletic. He has a good feel for the position. Scouts and coaches laud his instincts at the position. Those are the elements of a plus-glove. And if he’s a tick below great, that’s still good.

I think there is a good debate to be had: There is no doubt that the Cardinals’ system is deeper in talent than it was, say, four, five years ago. But does it yet have that high-end talent that other organizations have. Brett Wallace certainly fits (see Cards Talk for some quotes from scouts) and Colby Rasmus obviously does. Beyond them is there really a distinction between the Nos. 6-9 prospects and the Nos. 12-15.

It strikes me the Cardinals’ minor-league talent fits a bell curve.

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Here’s what I don’t have a handle on: How many bona fide major league prospects do the Cards have in their minor league system?

I have voted in these polls, but honestly, I haven’t seen most of these young men play. It is sheer guesswork on my part.

I’d be very interested in hearing informed opinions (that would include yours, Derrick) on who really projects to be a major leaguer.

I will stick to Craig until he is selected. As for the farm system, I think Rasmus and Wallace are star quality.

Perez, Motte, Todd, Anderson, Jones, Craig and Kozma all have star potential, but I don’t expect all of them to become stars; in fact, I suspect one or more of them will fail to have a career or two years or more. Clayton Mortensen and David Freese are two who should be solid players, but not stars. If Garcia makes a full recovery, I think he will be a solid starter — possibly a star.

There’s no question in my mind that the farm system is much improved. There is a lot more talent in the lower minors, and I think star power will emerge. However, the Cardinal system lacks the depth of top prospects the Rays have had for several years, and for good reason. If the International scouting operation pays off, maybe it will become that good one day, but the draft won’t produce it unless the major league club falls to the bottom and stays there for several years.

I have a question about Nick Stavinahoa,did he lose his rookie status? He seems to rate no mention in any these polls. I know he did very little when
he was with the big club but he was hardly given a fair trial. I did see
a few Memphis games this past year and in those games he was a much more impressive hitter than Freese or Rasmus. He does have power and doesn’t strike out that much. Also what has happened to Tyler Herron in the ranking? He was highly rated last year but has disappeared from mention
this year.

I’m from Oklahoma and covered Kozma quite a bit in his prep days at Owasso High. The guy does have pop. It hasn’t translated with the wood bat yet, but I think it will. Pete is hard to describe because there aren’t a lot of players like him. He’s old-school. Baseball is a craft to him. He hears or learns something once and he doesn’t need to be told again. Everything sticks with him and he won’t be out-worked or out-thought on the field. He may need a bit more time than other first round middle infielders to make his mark, but I’d put my money on him over anyone else in the system over the long haul. As the Card scout who covered him said…”you just look this guy in the eye and you see a guy who will play a long time in the big leagues.”

Kozma was 20 playing in the Midwest League, which made him age-appropriate for a genuine prospect in that league (an average age for *all* MWL players would be closer to 21 1/2). Pete posted an OPS about 70 points above league average, with a solid BB/K ratio of 45/69…so his bat looks fine so far–and he was a relatively “young 20″, as he’ll still be 20 on Opening Day 2009.

To expand upon that, Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus systematically compares current minor league batting numbers to all past performances by other hiters, and generates estimates of future MLB production.

Davenport’s Peak Translation for Pete Kozma has him getting on base as often as David Eckstein & Edgar Renteria (Kozma OBP .351, identical to Eckstein’s career number, and very slightly ahead of Renteria’s .347 career mark). And even better, Davenport projects Kozma to have more power than either former Redbird (P.K. slg% .418, Edgar R. .405, Lil’ Eck .361).

So Pete is basically on track for a Renteria-type career: a little above average with both the bat & glove. Actually, more than a bit above average with the bat, for a shortstop. While this may not qualify as a “star” in most people’s eyes, it is an MLB regular well above league average. I’ll certainly take that. (Of course, guys with an inexhaustible work ethic are obviously the ones who most often exceed expectations, and, as HR mentioned, Pete has a reputation as a smart, very hard-working “baseball rat”.)

Unlike the other 18-20 yr. old Cardinal SS prospects, Pete doesn’t have a real weakness to address. Donovan Solano needs more power; Domnit Bolivar must learn patience at the plate; Nico Vasquez has to cut down his strikeouts; Gerardo Mannbel needs to be more reliable with the leather. So Pete is sort of less interesting than those other farmhands. But boring doesn’t equal bad.

Kozma may not do much for Palm Beach in 2009–it’s an awful hitting park, in a distinctly pitcher-friendly league–but I think he’ll emerge in 2010 as one of the top 4 or 5 middle infield prospects in all the minors.