Pete Kozma reminds me a lot of David Eckstein. I personally think that he will be a better hitter than David, but will never put up the high homeruns and RBI’s that everyone raves about. From what I have read, he is a solid fielder and from what I saw last year an above average hitter. He struggled moving up to high A but I expect him to do better at that level this year. I think too many Cardinal funs are still crying about drafting Kozma instead of Porcello!

Thanks DG, nothing like influencing a poll. I’ve had the pleasure of seeing Kozma play at the QC a few times this year. He just never seems to come up with the big hit when needed. Eck always seemed to come through in those situations. I just find it hard to believe he has more value to the cards than an Allen Craig, who if anything could be a good trade chip.

It’s nice to see Fransisco Samuel on the list…

My vote went to Kozma. The main question is his bat. I agree with you there. You make a good argument in favor of Kozma, and it sounds like he is the type of player that won’t blow you away with great stats, but at the end of the season you’ll look back and see all the “little things” he did over the course of 162 games.

I still just don’t see him as an everyday SS. From what I’ve heard he doesn’t have the type of glove that will earn him a spot as an everyday SS. In other words, his glove isn’t the type that a team can sacrifice some offensive production for. Am I wrong, in suggesting that he has a very, very solid glove, but not a great glove? Thoughts, DG?

Also the middle infielder within the system that is most exciting to me has to be Niko Vasquez. Looks like he has some pop in his bat, and is solid on D. Here’s a thought: It is not that far out of the question to consider switching Kozma to 2B. Traditionally 2B isn’t an offensive position, it would be a position that Kozma could bring his solid D and smart baseball play and not be expected to produce.

DG, one more thing…here are a couple of players I’m curious about as far as candidates for the poll: Nick Addition and Brian Barden.

Allen Craig and Jon Jay both deserve more love. Personally I still think Craig is a better player than Freese. Doing these rankings every year really highlights how deep the system has become. In years past, low minors guys would be discussed and ranked at these spots. Now it is mostly guys who are past A-ball. A name that should come up soon is Deryk Hooker. Solid command and strikeout rates as he continues to move up the ladder.

There for awhile it didn’t look like I influenced the poll at all, and if you were to ask my opinion I would say there are two excellent candidates for this spot — Jay and Kozma — both of whom probably could fit in the top 10.

Great glove? It’s possible. He’s athletic. He has a good feel for the position. Scouts and coaches laud his instincts at the position. Those are the elements of a plus-glove. And if he’s a tick below great, that’s still good.

I think there is a good debate to be had: There is no doubt that the Cardinals’ system is deeper in talent than it was, say, four, five years ago. But does it yet have that high-end talent that other organizations have. Brett Wallace certainly fits (see Cards Talk for some quotes from scouts) and Colby Rasmus obviously does. Beyond them is there really a distinction between the Nos. 6-9 prospects and the Nos. 12-15.

It strikes me the Cardinals’ minor-league talent fits a bell curve.

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Here’s what I don’t have a handle on: How many bona fide major league prospects do the Cards have in their minor league system?

I have voted in these polls, but honestly, I haven’t seen most of these young men play. It is sheer guesswork on my part.

I’d be very interested in hearing informed opinions (that would include yours, Derrick) on who really projects to be a major leaguer.

I will stick to Craig until he is selected. As for the farm system, I think Rasmus and Wallace are star quality.

Perez, Motte, Todd, Anderson, Jones, Craig and Kozma all have star potential, but I don’t expect all of them to become stars; in fact, I suspect one or more of them will fail to have a career or two years or more. Clayton Mortensen and David Freese are two who should be solid players, but not stars. If Garcia makes a full recovery, I think he will be a solid starter — possibly a star.

There’s no question in my mind that the farm system is much improved. There is a lot more talent in the lower minors, and I think star power will emerge. However, the Cardinal system lacks the depth of top prospects the Rays have had for several years, and for good reason. If the International scouting operation pays off, maybe it will become that good one day, but the draft won’t produce it unless the major league club falls to the bottom and stays there for several years.

I have a question about Nick Stavinahoa,did he lose his rookie status? He seems to rate no mention in any these polls. I know he did very little when
he was with the big club but he was hardly given a fair trial. I did see
a few Memphis games this past year and in those games he was a much more impressive hitter than Freese or Rasmus. He does have power and doesn’t strike out that much. Also what has happened to Tyler Herron in the ranking? He was highly rated last year but has disappeared from mention
this year.

I’m from Oklahoma and covered Kozma quite a bit in his prep days at Owasso High. The guy does have pop. It hasn’t translated with the wood bat yet, but I think it will. Pete is hard to describe because there aren’t a lot of players like him. He’s old-school. Baseball is a craft to him. He hears or learns something once and he doesn’t need to be told again. Everything sticks with him and he won’t be out-worked or out-thought on the field. He may need a bit more time than other first round middle infielders to make his mark, but I’d put my money on him over anyone else in the system over the long haul. As the Card scout who covered him said…”you just look this guy in the eye and you see a guy who will play a long time in the big leagues.”

Kozma was 20 playing in the Midwest League, which made him age-appropriate for a genuine prospect in that league (an average age for *all* MWL players would be closer to 21 1/2). Pete posted an OPS about 70 points above league average, with a solid BB/K ratio of 45/69…so his bat looks fine so far–and he was a relatively “young 20″, as he’ll still be 20 on Opening Day 2009.

To expand upon that, Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus systematically compares current minor league batting numbers to all past performances by other hiters, and generates estimates of future MLB production.

Davenport’s Peak Translation for Pete Kozma has him getting on base as often as David Eckstein & Edgar Renteria (Kozma OBP .351, identical to Eckstein’s career number, and very slightly ahead of Renteria’s .347 career mark). And even better, Davenport projects Kozma to have more power than either former Redbird (P.K. slg% .418, Edgar R. .405, Lil’ Eck .361).

So Pete is basically on track for a Renteria-type career: a little above average with both the bat & glove. Actually, more than a bit above average with the bat, for a shortstop. While this may not qualify as a “star” in most people’s eyes, it is an MLB regular well above league average. I’ll certainly take that. (Of course, guys with an inexhaustible work ethic are obviously the ones who most often exceed expectations, and, as HR mentioned, Pete has a reputation as a smart, very hard-working “baseball rat”.)

Unlike the other 18-20 yr. old Cardinal SS prospects, Pete doesn’t have a real weakness to address. Donovan Solano needs more power; Domnit Bolivar must learn patience at the plate; Nico Vasquez has to cut down his strikeouts; Gerardo Mannbel needs to be more reliable with the leather. So Pete is sort of less interesting than those other farmhands. But boring doesn’t equal bad.

Kozma may not do much for Palm Beach in 2009–it’s an awful hitting park, in a distinctly pitcher-friendly league–but I think he’ll emerge in 2010 as one of the top 4 or 5 middle infield prospects in all the minors.

Bob and others,

That is a very astute bet, and probably will be what happens. Kozma is a prospect — and when making out a list of the four or five players the Cardinals have who will be regulars in the majors, he’s on it. There are probably a dozen to 15 or more here who will see playing time in the majors. And maybe somewhere around nine that will get enough playing to no longer qualify as a rookie. The question, again, isn’t the quantity of big-league-bound talent the Cardinals have, it’s the depth of the quality in that group.

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One thing to be careful of is projecting those peak translations. Those are perfect world projections. Meaning that Kozma’s upside is Renteria, but I would not bet on him or anyone fullfilling their perfect world projections especially as far away as Kozma still is.

Oh, and I nearly forgot: Richard Castillo for #13.

If you’re one of the best 3 or 4 18-year-old pitchers on the planet, you belong higher on this list. And there’s good reason to rank Castillo among the top handful of 18-year-olds. Who’s better, beside uber-prospect Madison Bumgarner (who, by the way, made every single start in 2008 on extra rest)?

Tim Collins was dazzling, but he pitched exclusively in relief. Stolmy & Carlos Pimentel look good, as do Jennry Mejia and Wilfredo Boscan–but all of them were pitching against much lesser competition than Castillo. Jairo Heredia had a very nice year in the South Atlantic League…but he averaged less than 5 innings per start (Castillo was over 6), and was both more hittable and wilder than RC, as well.

You could certainly make a good case that Richard Castillo is the 2nd-best 18-year-old professional hurler in the world. So unless the Cardinals have the best farm system since Branch Rickey invented the thing, Castillo is definitely one of their top 6 or 8 prospects.

Those kind of perfect-world projections is why I created those Prospect SATs. Some people who have read the blog for several years will remember those. Set up like the SAT questions of old it takes a prospect and targets what he could be in the majors with a safe-bet and best-case.

For example, one we all know well:

COLBY RASMUS:STEVE FINLEY:GRADY SIZEMORE

You can tell a lot by the distance between the two names attached. The distance between Steve Finley and Grady Sizemore isn’t that large, where as some will definitely show a bigger gap. Off the top of my head, using the above projections, here’s Kozma’s:

PETE KOZMA:CLINT BARMES:EDGAR RENTERIA

It helps illustrate the prospect’s characteristics and his ceiling.

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The Davenport Peak Translations are actually what the player is *likeliest* to hit, in his prime 3-4 years, rather than a best case scenario. But your point is well taken, Steve; Kozma, even at his best, doesn’t figure to have any BIG years like Renteria’s 2003 or 2007 seasons. That is, unless Pete’s development curve takes a turn for the better.

Thanks for the responses, DG. But why scare your devoted readership by invoking the name of Clint Barmes?

Kozma in A-ball at age 20 (again, a “youngish” 20) was distinctly better than Clint Barmes was in A-ball while fully two years older. Whatever the skillset similarities, the age advantage for Pete is huge–and for me, negates any reasonable comparison between the two. Not to pick a fight or anything….:)

And Barmes had a .505 slugging percentage in Triple-A.

The idea of the SAT isn’t to dismiss or downgrade a prospect, it’s to offer a realistic comparable. Too often I read that Prospect A is the next Mickey Mantle or Prospect Y is the next Larry Walker. C’mon. That’s not fair. It’s much better to give a reasonable range. Is Daryl Jones the next Carl Crawford? Well, that would mean everything goes right and Jones becomes an All-Star and picks up the paces on the bases. That’s a dream-on expectation. What is more reasonable? Darryl Hamilton?

Is Jon Jay going to win a batting title? Or, is he like Doug Glanville? Try a few Prospect SATs out and you’ll get a feel for the process. I haven’t done Brett Wallace yet or Clayton Mortensen. P.J. Walters is a good one, too.

I see nothing wrong with a prospect being compared to Barmes.

Barmes is in the big leagues.

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I reluctantly picked Kozma. As much as I would like someone from my Alma Mater to make it to the bigs– Pete has not yet demonstrated success with wood bats. I doubt the power assessment– that was all with metal. I do not question his desire or his work ethic– I just see him as more of a utility guy. For the rest, I asked myself: “What MLB role would they play?” Frankly, the rest are iffy as contributors at that level. I’m more excited by some of the very young guys, including some of the Latin American signees…. Yes the farm is improving, but it’s still roughly in the mid-level. The older guys (age 22-25)in the 15-30 range of a midlevel farm system just don’t project to be MLB contributors. There’s always a continual influx of new draftees, international signees, etc to replace them….

Admittedly, the name Clint Barmes made me cringe a little as well. How about Kozma: Jason Bartlett: Michael Young?

P.J. Walters is a tough one, because he’s such an oddity. This is tough, but I’d say Walters: Josh Fogg: Paul Byrd, maybe? Those are the only two soft-tossing, changeup throwing, good control righties I can think of. For Mortensen, how about: Kyle Kendrick: Aaron Cook? These prospect SAT’s can be tricky, but fun.

Have a good thanksgiving DG!

I’m puzzled DG. In a season and a half Kozma has recorded 46 errors. This is a great fielder???

I vote for Kyle Mura (son of Steve Mura from the 1982 Cards’ championship team). He was successful in 2007 at Quad Cities as a middle-relief guy, 7-0 record, very few walks, almost a strikeout per inning, low ERA (1.66) and a low WHIP (0.96). At the start of the 2008 the organization converted him to a starter. He split time between Class A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, going 8-9 combined with a 3.53 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (Better that Adam Ottavino or Tyler Herron). Mura throws strikes, as he walked only 19 batters in 135 innings (1.26 / 9 IP). Mura pitched better in Springfield (2.74 ERA, all but a couple of his starts were quality), and was able to pace himself to the Dave Duncan “Pitch to contact” philosophy, as he was effective in getting batters to get themselves out. Mura has been under the radar in the organization, but give him another couple of seasons to grow in the starter role, and see what happens.

Kozma: 44 errors in 155 games at shortstop since turning pro….with a 4.17 range factor and a .937 fielding percentage. Combine that with his offensive numbers (.252 BA/.333 OBP/.357 SLG) and it sounds to me like we have the second coming of Ray Busse.

Please don’t confuse my explanation as an advocacy. I suggested that people consider the “Pick” as element used to organize some Top 30 rankings, especially when it comes to ranking newly added prospects. That doesn’t mean I think they should.

There are many times when my reporting is different than my opinion.

DG: I know you contribute to Baseball America– a favorite publication of mine way before they developed the website. My question has to do with your role in the BA top prospects. How much input do you have in their annual team rankings?

Tyler Norrick LP pitcher from SIU C - great pitcher, has been hurt at West Palm Beach

Funny, I thought it was Comp 101.

I covered Pete for three years while he was in high school. He got exponentially better each year. He is a guy who will not miss a bunt or sacrifice opportunity, will rope a double down the line or go long when needed. He is so effortless in his fielding it looks like he is disinterested, but it’s just how calm his is. His face doesn’t reflect what is going on inside him. He is a thinker on the field and a student of the game. At Owasso, and in Oklahoma, he was considered one of the best to ever play high school ball. I would surmise that he will be in the bigs in about three years given the chance.