St. Louis Cardinals’ Community Top 30: Vote for No. 13
SOUTH GRAND — When looking at propects through the prism of the “Three-P Approach” mentioned yesterday, perhaps there needs to be a fourth “P” added: Pop.
Not pop as in power, but pop as in dazzle, Q-rating — the charismatic qualities of a prospect.
Consider Pete Kozma.
As the comments at the bottom of yesterday’s poll helped illuminate, Kozma, the St. Louis Cardinals first-round pick in 2007, is sliding in these rankings without much reason. He is arguably the finest middle-infield glove in the system, a smooth fielder who many scouts believe is good enough to play
Cardinals SS prospect Pete Kozma, in his high school duds. (Source: Obrienbaseball.com)
shortstop in the majors. Baseball America pegged him as the No. 15 prospect in the Midwest League, the third-highest ranked middle infielder on that list behind Mike Moustakas (who will play third) and Justin Jackson. The question will be if Kozma will hit, yet there’s been no indication that he doesn’t have an approach that will translate. The power may not develop, but he’s got a refined enough eye and an improving swing that he’ll hit well enough to complement his glove.
So why the lack of love?
He’s all steak. No sizzle.
(Pardon the horrible cliche.)
Kozma has been lapped, especially in this community poll, by prospects with prettier, flashier, more eye-catching and bedazzling resumes. There could be a recoil from the fact that he’s a first-round pick without the high-watt first-round tool or rep. There is little that Kozma does poorly. Yet, he isn’t at the top of the tool chest in any one category — unless you’re like me and you argue consistency (i.e., durability, reliability, a lot of the -ibilities) is a tool. He doesn’t project as a surefire leadoff hitter. He doesn’t project as a guy who is going to pound out the doubles. He projects as a dependable shortstop. And there is value in that.
Of all the people who see this, Kozma may have the best read of all on his situation:
“I am really nothing too flashy,” Kozma told me this past season. “I don’t see myself as an All-Star the first time you see me. I can understand that. Over the course of the season, though, it’s the things I do to help a team, the steady things, how reliable I play.”
In a sweeping victory, Clayton Mortensen was elected the 12th-best prospect in the system according to this year’s Comm Top 30. Mortensen received 44 percent of the vote, and the race for second place was far more compelling. For today’s poll, I took some of the high finishers from yesterday but also injected a few new names.
Vote away.
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This will be the final Comm Top 30 poll until after Thanksgiving. I am working on a PostCards mailbag (write your questions now to PostCards@post-dispatch.com) and we hope to have something special planned in the blog for Thanksgiving Day. But other than that, I’m going to try to take a few days off, if you don’t mind. There is, after all, some pumpkin pie to devour and a few brothers-in-law to dismantle in backyard football.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Bob and others,
That is a very astute bet, and probably will be what happens. Kozma is a prospect — and when making out a list of the four or five players the Cardinals have who will be regulars in the majors, he’s on it. There are probably a dozen to 15 or more here who will see playing time in the majors. And maybe somewhere around nine that will get enough playing to no longer qualify as a rookie. The question, again, isn’t the quantity of big-league-bound talent the Cardinals have, it’s the depth of the quality in that group.
dg
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One thing to be careful of is projecting those peak translations. Those are perfect world projections. Meaning that Kozma’s upside is Renteria, but I would not bet on him or anyone fullfilling their perfect world projections especially as far away as Kozma still is.
Oh, and I nearly forgot: Richard Castillo for #13.
If you’re one of the best 3 or 4 18-year-old pitchers on the planet, you belong higher on this list. And there’s good reason to rank Castillo among the top handful of 18-year-olds. Who’s better, beside uber-prospect Madison Bumgarner (who, by the way, made every single start in 2008 on extra rest)?
Tim Collins was dazzling, but he pitched exclusively in relief. Stolmy & Carlos Pimentel look good, as do Jennry Mejia and Wilfredo Boscan–but all of them were pitching against much lesser competition than Castillo. Jairo Heredia had a very nice year in the South Atlantic League…but he averaged less than 5 innings per start (Castillo was over 6), and was both more hittable and wilder than RC, as well.
You could certainly make a good case that Richard Castillo is the 2nd-best 18-year-old professional hurler in the world. So unless the Cardinals have the best farm system since Branch Rickey invented the thing, Castillo is definitely one of their top 6 or 8 prospects.
Those kind of perfect-world projections is why I created those Prospect SATs. Some people who have read the blog for several years will remember those. Set up like the SAT questions of old it takes a prospect and targets what he could be in the majors with a safe-bet and best-case.
For example, one we all know well:
COLBY RASMUS:STEVE FINLEY:GRADY SIZEMORE
You can tell a lot by the distance between the two names attached. The distance between Steve Finley and Grady Sizemore isn’t that large, where as some will definitely show a bigger gap. Off the top of my head, using the above projections, here’s Kozma’s:
PETE KOZMA:CLINT BARMES:EDGAR RENTERIA
It helps illustrate the prospect’s characteristics and his ceiling.
dg
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The Davenport Peak Translations are actually what the player is *likeliest* to hit, in his prime 3-4 years, rather than a best case scenario. But your point is well taken, Steve; Kozma, even at his best, doesn’t figure to have any BIG years like Renteria’s 2003 or 2007 seasons. That is, unless Pete’s development curve takes a turn for the better.
Thanks for the responses, DG. But why scare your devoted readership by invoking the name of Clint Barmes?
Kozma in A-ball at age 20 (again, a “youngish” 20) was distinctly better than Clint Barmes was in A-ball while fully two years older. Whatever the skillset similarities, the age advantage for Pete is huge–and for me, negates any reasonable comparison between the two. Not to pick a fight or anything….:)
And Barmes had a .505 slugging percentage in Triple-A.
The idea of the SAT isn’t to dismiss or downgrade a prospect, it’s to offer a realistic comparable. Too often I read that Prospect A is the next Mickey Mantle or Prospect Y is the next Larry Walker. C’mon. That’s not fair. It’s much better to give a reasonable range. Is Daryl Jones the next Carl Crawford? Well, that would mean everything goes right and Jones becomes an All-Star and picks up the paces on the bases. That’s a dream-on expectation. What is more reasonable? Darryl Hamilton?
Is Jon Jay going to win a batting title? Or, is he like Doug Glanville? Try a few Prospect SATs out and you’ll get a feel for the process. I haven’t done Brett Wallace yet or Clayton Mortensen. P.J. Walters is a good one, too.
I see nothing wrong with a prospect being compared to Barmes.
Barmes is in the big leagues.
dg
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I reluctantly picked Kozma. As much as I would like someone from my Alma Mater to make it to the bigs– Pete has not yet demonstrated success with wood bats. I doubt the power assessment– that was all with metal. I do not question his desire or his work ethic– I just see him as more of a utility guy. For the rest, I asked myself: “What MLB role would they play?” Frankly, the rest are iffy as contributors at that level. I’m more excited by some of the very young guys, including some of the Latin American signees…. Yes the farm is improving, but it’s still roughly in the mid-level. The older guys (age 22-25)in the 15-30 range of a midlevel farm system just don’t project to be MLB contributors. There’s always a continual influx of new draftees, international signees, etc to replace them….
Admittedly, the name Clint Barmes made me cringe a little as well. How about Kozma: Jason Bartlett: Michael Young?
P.J. Walters is a tough one, because he’s such an oddity. This is tough, but I’d say Walters: Josh Fogg: Paul Byrd, maybe? Those are the only two soft-tossing, changeup throwing, good control righties I can think of. For Mortensen, how about: Kyle Kendrick: Aaron Cook? These prospect SAT’s can be tricky, but fun.
Have a good thanksgiving DG!