WEST COUNTY — The St. Louis Cardinals decision not to offer Braden Looper arbitration by this week’s deadline can be measured in the innings they have to prove they can fill, the dollars they may have saved, and the years of security he may gain.

But don’t forget to count the prospect the Cardinals won’t get.

As a Type B free agent, Looper offered the Cardinals the opportunity to assure a supplemental (i.e., sandwich) round pick in the 2009 draft if Looper signed with another major-league team. Type A free agents tend to be viewed as the bigger windfall because, of course, offering one arbitration could score a first-round pick and a supplemental round. Milwaukee, for example, will get those two picks when/if CC Sabathia signs elsewhere, and the Brewers could net a second tandem of picks if Ben Sheets tries for a multi-year deal somewhere. That potentially could be two top-50 picks, but it’s the first-round pick that really has the sizzle.

Don’t ignore the value of a supplemental pick. Include that in the value of Looper’s arbitration.

In the Cardinals’ Top 30 prospects from last year, according to Baseball America, three of the top 10 were recent supplement picks. The Cardinals supplemental picks since 1999 are:

• Lance Lynn, RHP, 2008 (39th overall)
• Clayton Mortensen, RHP, 2007 (36th overall)
• Chris Perez, RHP, 2006 (42nd overall)
• Mark McCormick, RHP, 2005 (43rd overall)
• Tyler Herron, RHP, 2005 (46th overall)
• Chris Duncan, OF, 1999 (46th overall)

RHP Chris Perez, closer-in-training, was a supplemental pick in 2006, for Matt Morris. (Source: MLB.com)

There is a possibility that all six of those players will reach the major leagues, with McCormick and his control/health issues being really the only uncertainty. The Cardinals are hardly alone in the success of the supplemental picks. Mitch Canham, the catcher out of Oregon State the Cardinals tried to sign a year too early, was a sandwich pick in 2007. Joba Chamberlain went a pick ahead of Perez in 2006. Huston Street was a sandwich pick, 40th overall, in 2004. And in 2003 Adam Miller, Matt Murton, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Adam Jones went in supplemental picks awarded for free agents Jim Thome, Cliff Floyd, Tom Glavine and Mike Remlinger, respectively.

In the hearty draft of 2005, the Cardinals picked Colby Rasmus with a first-round pick they got from Boston for Edgar Renteria. Sure. The supplemental round was also rich with talent. The Cardinals got McCormick and young rising pitcher Herron, but consider the haul Boston scored with its sandwich picks: RHP Clay Buchholz, 42nd overall, and SS/2B Jed Lowrie, 45th overall. Lowrie overtook Julio Lugo this past season to win playing time at shortstop for the Red Sox. He went 30 picks before Yunel Escobar — who has gotten a smidge of attention recently — and Escobar went five after the Cardinals selected Josh Wilson, a righthanded in Quad Cities last season.

It was a heckuva draft. The supplemental round can land a heckuva talent.

So why would the Cardinals pass on offering Looper arbitration? If they had sent Looper, who made $5.5 million this past season, an offer of arbitration by Monday’s deadline, the two possible outcomes of that move would be:

• HE ACCEPTS: This apparently was the most likely outcome. Cardinals are locked in to a one-year contract with Looper, he is added to the 40-man roster and his salary will be determined by arbitration, though negotiations can continue until the beginning of the hearing later this offseason.
• HE DECLINES, SIGNS ELSEWHERE: Cardinals get a supplemental-round pick.

Clearly the fear of the salary he could get through arbitration was enough to chill the Cardinals’ interest in getting that draft pick or gambling that Looper would decline arbitration to get a multi-year deal elsewhere. The supplemental-round pick, as discussed, is usually no slouch. It has a tremendous value. So, what kind of salary would the Cardinals expect Looper to get that would make the pick unappetizing or paying that much for his innings unappealing? It must be some salary.

Or, and here’s the elephant in the decision, the Cardinals are playing thriftier than has been reported.

Baltimore OF Adam Jones = reward for Mike Remlinger.

If the possibility that Looper would accept arbitration and the one-year deal was real — and it likely was — then the Cardinals shrank from what a 33-start, 199-inning starting pitcher could get in arbitration. (One scenario has Looper comparing favorably to a pitcher like Carlos Silva, and getting an arbitration reward of $10 million or more.) The Cardinals weren’t alone. There were 12 free agent starting pitchers who were either Type A or Type B free agents and all had at least 30 starts and 180 innings pitched last season. Seven were offered arbitration. Of those seven, only two were Type B — Paul Byrd in Boston and Jon Garland with the Los Angeles Angels. Looper, as a Type B not offered arbitration, joins the likes of Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf. Andy Pettitte, a Type A free agent, was not offered arbitration by the New York Yankees. They simply don’t want him back at $16 million.

What pressure could be on players like Looper to accept one-year deal via arbitration even if they seek a multi-year deal? It’s the same pressure on teams that leads them to not offer arbitration at all.

The economic downturn has reached baseball.

Yahoo! Sports Jeff Passan explores the issue through the Adam Dunn prism in his recent article, “Economy Model”. He concurs: Clubs are reluctant to offer arbitration out of the sheer terror that a player will accept it. Arbitration means the free-market won’t set the salary, a hearing and all of the rules of that hearing will. Arbitration is a lifeboat from the economic Titanic — it offers the guarantee of a good raise, at least. The free market this year could be hairy. Looper, who may draw interest from Cincinnati, may not find the salary in the open market because of the economic chill that he could lock in with arbitration.

Passan also suggests that some teams were even trying to avoid the signing bonuses they’d have to use on draft picks next season. Seems a little penny-pinching. But it also seems like teams are pinching their pennies in this glacial free agent market. The Cardinals love their picks. They point to the number of picks they had early in 2005 as the turnaround for their farm system. But when it came to Looper, the hinge of their decision is obvious. When it came to choosing a 30-start pitcher at a TBD salary or a supplemental pick, the Cardinals felt in this climate neither was worth the risk of that TBD.

Even the potential of the pick didn’t outweigh the probable cost.

RIFFS

Over at Seamheads.com, Mike Lynch has a forgotten tale from the Cardinals’ past about Austin McHenry, a comet who streaked into the majors and then suddenly, rapidly lost his ability to play before dying at 27. The reason why will surprise you. It’s quite an article: “The Promising Life and Sudden Death of Austin McHenry”. … Having become hesitant to meet the asking price for Rafael Furcal, the San Francisco Giants have apparently made Edgar Renteria their priority at shortstop, and his price could quickly climb out of the Cardinals neighborhood, if it hasn’t already. … Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty, in a rush of candor, acknowledges his offer to Arthur Rhodes, saying in this John Fay blog that the lefty has “quite a lot of interest in him.” Rhodes is said to have mutual interest in the Cardinals.

The new web site design for Tony La Russa’s Animal Rescue Foundation debuted Tuesday. Check it out here: www.arf.net. … La Russa also has his annual charity concert set for Jan. 18, 2009, at Chaifetz Arena on the Saint Louis University campus. Vince Gill is scheduled to appear, as is Huey Lewis. But I’d go for the rant: Lewis Black is one of the comedians booked for the gig.

-30-