Do the St. Louis Cardinals need a lefty starter?
LAS VEGAS — In their past 420 games, a stretch that reaches all the way back deep into that golden season of 2006, the St. Louis Cardinals have had a grand total of ZERO games started and won by a lefthanded pitcher.
Since Mark Mulder won his start on June 15, 2006, the Cardinals have trotted out Mike Maroth, Randy Keisler, Jaime Garcia and Mulder (a few times) to make starts. That group has made 15 starts total in the past two seasons; two starts from two different lefties in 2008. And they have not produced a victory. Not Maroth in seven starts. Not Mulder in his four memorable tries.
Nada.
Albert Pujols has as many wins for the Cardinals as the lefty starters.
And he had a bad elbow.
Earlier this offseason, about the time the Cardinals made the obvious move to not exercise Mulder’s option for the 2009 season, a baseball exec said it would be wise for the club to add a lefthanded starter to the rotation “because you can really use one in that division.” The National League Central, the theory went, is a division where a lefthander gives the rotation a valuable and different look. Lefties, the implication was, can thrive there. I asked Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan if he shared that opinion and he said … not exactly.
“You wouldn’t mind having a lefty in the rotation, of course,” Duncan said. “But you don’t need to force yourself to get one.”
As the Cardinals look at adding a starting pitcher via free agency, the short list of pitchers they have considered or approached include a handful of lefty starters: Randy Wolf, Andy Pettitte and Oliver Perez. Either one would add that different look to a rotation that has been righthand-dominant for more than two seasons. But does it offer a tangible advantage in the NL Central. Duncan made the point that with Prince Fielder and Adam Dunn in the division the past couple years a team can be exposed if it doesn’t have a lefty specialist (enter: Trever Miller).
When it comes to starters the numbers aren’t as convincing, though they are intriguing.
Below are the club numbers against lefthanded pitchers, how they rank in the National League and whether the average is up or down or equal to their overall average:
TEAM … BA vs. LHP … OBP vs. LHP … SLG vs. LHP … W-L vs. LHP
Cubs … .288 (1) down … .366 (1) down … .442 (4) equal … 31-16
Astros … .271 (5) down … .333 (11) down … .418 (9) down … 26-20
Brewers … .269 (6) down … .348 (5) up … .458 (2) down … 33-20
Cardinals … .269 (7) down … .343 (6) up … .410 (10) down … 27-29
Reds … .257 (11) down … .336 (9) up … .410 (7) up … 30-25
Pirates … .250 (13) down … .320 (13) equal … .395 (12) up … 14-28
Scanning the rotations in the division for lefties, it is possible to pull out three examples and see if they do perform better in the NL Central than outside of baseball’s largest division. There are many variables here. They face these hitters more often. They know them better; the hitters know them better. But there is also gravity to picking apart the numbers. The NL Central had some of the best teams in the National League this past season and the ballparks run the spectrum from Cincinnati’s homer-happy pavilion to Busch Stadium and PNC Park.
I took three lefties from the division and made a quick audit of their numbers against NL Central teams and their numbers against the rest of baseball in 2008:
TED LILLY, CUBS
- vs. NL Central … 8-5, 4.18 ERA in 112 innings
- vs. the rest … 9-4, 3.98 ERA in 92 2/3 innings
WANDY RODRIGUEZ, HOUSTON
- vs. NL Central … 4-4, 2.89 ERA in 65 1/3 innings
- vs. the rest … 5-3, 4.13 ERA in 72 innings
PAUL MAHOLM, PITTSBURGH
- vs. NL Central … 5-2, 3.04 ERA in 71 innings
- vs. the rest … 4-7, 4.06 ERA in 135 1/3 innings
Maybe it’s Maholm and that Pirates rotation that answers the question on whether a lefthanded starter does thrive — or if one is needed, is beneficial — in the NL Central. They could, when all parts are healthy and pitching well, have four lefties in their rotation: Phil Dumatrait, Maholm, Tom Gorzelanny and Zach Duke. You can see where that has gotten the Pirates.
No need to check the stats. Check the standings.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Meh. In 2004, the Cards led the majors in wins, with no lefties in the rotation. And you know what else? The other three teams to make it to the League Championship Series that year combined to have a grand total of ZERO lefties in their rotations.
Best four teams, and not a southpaw to be found.
I would, however, take Randy Johnson on a $10-12MM, one year deal. (The guy’s ERA after last year’s All-Star break was 2.41 in 13 starts! Over those 86 innings, he fanned 78 and walked just 16. Amazing, huh?)
ERA is stupid. Stop using it as a measure of performance.
Sinve we’re on the subject, check out The Big Unit’s ERA’s, by month:
July 3.60
August 2.45
Sept/Oct 3.41
After Johnson’s awful June ERA of 6.82, he was solid the rest of the way. If he’d play in StL, I’d like to have him.
Overall, there aren’t many left-handed batters within the division that make a team like the Cardinals want to go out and get a left-handed starting pitcher. Our biggest rival in the division, the Cubs, are a predominantly right-handed hitting team. If you were in the NL East, you would want at least one left-handed starter.
There is no doubt a team can get away with this in the NL Central, as long as they have late-inning lefty specialists.
ERA is stupid?
What other single statistic is a better indicator of performance?
Tell that to Bob Gibson and his 1.12. Were you a fan in ‘67?
Great point concerning the Pirates plethora of lefty starters.
Another thing to take note of is, in terms of our divisional opponents, the Reds no longer have the left-handed bats that they used to (Griffey and Dunn).
Thank you to all defending Big Mac, I am with you guys. Some of these haters need to look at themselves first. Ever cheat on a test at school when you really didn’t know cheating was bad, say you were 6 years old? Ever cheat on a diet? Play the politics game at work to save your job? It’s all in the situation. And yeah, the HOL is currently filled with drunks, womanizers, gamblers and drug addicts, so why the hypocrisy now?
Look at other players and sports. If Bonds gets in, well now, that will be a disgrace since the same trainer supplied Marion Jones. At least she admitted she lied and served her time-in prison no less. Bonds won’t admit to anything although the proof, and there is massive amounts of proof in this case (unlike Mac) to put him in jail, not just keep him out of the HOF. No wonder no one would pick up Bonds….
In ‘98 Andro was legal and he brought it out, didn’t hide from it. And not to mention, he stopped taking it and STILL hit over 50 home runs the next year, and was still a consistent home run hitter until he was injured. Again, he broke the Rookie Record was he was pencil thin. It’s called talent, skill and ability, not steroids.
I hope the HOF starts looking at his skills and what he did for baseball after the strike. I met him personally twice working for charitable functions and I can tell you that he was more than courteous to the fans and media both times. He was and is still extremely modest about how much he gave of his time and money to abused children and other charities. Will the HOF look at that kind of character? I hope the HOF pulls their head out of the hole in the ground they’ve been in.
I would certainly like a lefty starter in the rotation. Not because it is perceived that a lefty starter is important in the NLC, but because we have so many Righthanded Relief Pitchers that it begs for us to have a lefty starter. If your bullpen is so heavily weighted toward Righthanded pitchers, it’s dumb to not have a Lefty starter. One would think TLR and all of his “match-ups” would be insistant upon that.
Randy Johnson is the man. i would love to have him here for a year and then an option depending on his year. that would be beast as ever yo. and by the way i hate the cubs. veryone on their excluding edmonds if he is still there.