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12.24.2008 12:22 pm

Pujols’ Pending Payday: Teixeira Sets the Mark (Post-Xmas Update)

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — Five years ago the St. Louis Cardinals and the finest hitter of his generation were steaming toward what could have been a dicey and milestone arbitration hearing when, in the 11th hour, Albert Pujols agreed to the largest contract in franchise history. The deal, still active today, made Pujols the ninth $100-million man in baseball history and, at 24, the youngest ever to reach the salary threshold.

As the MVP enters the penultimate year of his guaranteed contract, one thing is clear.

He’s been a bargain.

What is Albert Pujols worth?

What is Albert Pujols worth?

News of the New York Yankees inking first baseman Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180-million deal rippled through baseball yesterday, and there were probably two interested parties who had little direct interest in where Teixeira signed. The Cardinals and Pujols’ reps cared about what Teixeira signed for. The switch-hitting, Gold Glove-caliber Teixeira finalized a deal with the spree-spending Yankees that averages $22.5 million a year, according to reports. More than Jason Giambi’s contract a few years ago with these same Yankees, Teixeira is a clear and tangible benchmark to help set the market for … well, what Pujols could command as a free agent. Does Teixeira’s new deal hint at Pujols’ next deal?

Both will be 29 during this coming season. Both hit in the middle of the order. Both play first.

Beyond that …

Pujols, while playing with a tear in his right elbow, won his second National League MVP this past season. Teixeira has finished only as high as seventh in the voting, and that was back in 2005. Teixeira, while a switch hitter, is a .290 career hitter with a .541 career slugging percentage. Pujols is a career .334 hitter with a .624 slugging percentage. Some statistical shakedowns:

CAREER … BA/OBP/SLG … 162-gm AVG (ba/obp/slg, hr, rbi)

Teixeira … .290/.378/.541 … .290/.378/.541, 36, 121

Pujols … .334/.425/.624 … .334/.425/.624, 42, 128

3-YEAR … BA/OBP/SLG … HR … RBI

Teixeira … .298/.393/,541 … 96 … 336

Pujols … .338/.440/.629 … 118 … 356

One number that deserves its popularity because of its authority and its ability to compare players against each other and the era in which they play is OPS+. It basically is on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage compared against the league average. It’s a number set at 100 — so <100 is below average and >100 is above average. Teixeira’s career OPS is a sturdy 134. Pujols’ is 170.

Using additional advanced-placement metrics that we have at our fingertips these days, Pujols pulls even further ahead. Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is simply the number of runs one player contributes to the team over what a replacement at the same position would do with the same number of plate appearances. This past season Pujols, despite the bum elbow, still led the majors with a 98.6 VORP, according to Baseball Prospectus. It is the second time in three seasons that Pujols has been No. 1. In the season he didn’t lead the majors, he still lead every first basemen in the majors.

Teixeira, and here comes the UPDATE (a/k/a, reader-aided deletion of writer utter boneheaded-ness) has routinely been a top-10 first baseman, but just cracked the top 20 for the first time in 2008.

VORP (according to Baseball Prospectus)

2008 — Teixeira: combined 66.2 (an impressive est. 5th), right around David Wright, Chase Utley, and high-priced Yankee Alex Rodriguez. … Pujols: 98.6 (1st).

2007 — Teixeira: combined 53.1 (est. 22nd), right around Grady Sizemore, Ryan Howard and high-priced Yankees Derek Jeter. Ranked fifth among first basemen. … Pujols: 72.1 (9th).

2006 — Teixeira: 37.4 (54th), sandwiched between Edgar Renteria and Scott Rolen, and we all know what was going on then with him. … Pujols: 85.4 (1st).

Pujols, it should be noted, does not switch-hit like Teixeira. Of course, he doesn’t need to.

Pujols in the field

Gold-standard: Pujols in the field

But what about defense? The measures of defense are constantly evolving and improving. One of the best out there right now is the plus/minus used by The Fielding Bible. This is the same publication that has awarded Pujols its equivalent of the Gold Glove every year that is has given out the award. Pujols won this year despite not leading his position in plus/minus for the first time in three seasons. Who did? Teixeira. It only takes a few games of watching Teixeira to know that he’s an above-average defensive player. Athletic. Agile. Etc. The numbers don’t necessarily support the eyes, but it’s safe to say Pujols and Teixeira are, ahem, in the same ballpark when it comes to playing first base.

Their plus/minus scores for the past three seasons (rank at the position in parentheses).

PLAYER, POS … 2006 … 2007 … 2008

TEIXEIRA, 1B … +2 (15) … -4 (22) … +24 (1)

PUJOLS, 1B … +25 (1) … +37 (1) … +20 (2)

All of that is prelude to the original question: What does Teixeira’s new deal tell us about Pujols’ next deal?

It’s a mind-boggling to consider. Is Pujols twice the player, twice the salary? Is Pujols 1 1/2-times the player? Pujols is signed on a guaranteed deal through 2010, and there is a $16-million option for the 2011 season. According to the USA Today salary database (see blogroll), Pujols’ salary didn’t crack the top 25 this past season, but at $16 million for 2009 he’ll likely be in the top 10. Teixeira, at about $20 million in 2009, could be in the top five.

The Cardinals, led then by Walt Jocketty, scored a coup by buying Pujols out of his arbitration years entirely, and they do have rights to him until just a few months before he turns 32. He is coming off surgery this season, but that elbow could also influence the kind of deal. His age and his elbow could reduce the years (term) Pujols will command — especially compared to 29-year-old Teixeira — but not the salary.

I’ve found a few places that have attempted to answer the question what Pujols would make as a free agent in today’s markets. Some present it merely as an academic discussion and don’t arrive at any answer. Others break into mathematical gymnastics far beyond this blog’s ability to translate. At The Baseball Economists’ blog, J.C. Bradbury frames his MVP argument in 2007 around revenue generated by a players’ performance. Pujols ranks well. At Fangraphs there was an announcement today that they are translating some of their sharpest stats into dollar figures and will have leaderboards up shortly. Over at The Book, a blog spawned from a book about The Book, the author wrestled with the Pujols Question, and came to some outrageous conclusions: $300 million. As his guide he used a fascinating scale based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), similar to the above Value.

The author’s chart is available here, and it illustrates how a player with a 7.0 wins above a replacement player is deserving of a 10-year, $305.9 million contract. (Yowza.)

Using those aforementioned Fangraph numbers, Pujols’ WAR in 2008 was … 9.0.

(Teixeira’s for argument sake was 6.8. And, yes, that’s combined.)

Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols after a home run.

Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols after a home run.

Clearly, there is no way to calculate Pujols’ worth using other players’ salaries. He defies the market. Teixeira’s new contract only underscores what was already apparent: Pujols is due a raise. A hefty one. If five years ago, he was the youngest $100-million man, then two years from now is he the first $30-million year man? The way his contract with the Cardinals is structured they will be paying him deferred salary long after he retires, until 2029. Might as well minimize the paperwork and keep the paychecks coming from the same source.

To determine the value of that paycheck, however, you can’t rely on comparables. Or, maybe not current comparables. Baseball-Reference.com has a unique feature that compares a player at his current age against all players at the same age. For a majority of his career, Pujols has compared favorably to Joe DiMaggio. There was a break this season. Here are Teixeira’s and Pujols’ comparables, via Baseball-Reference.com’s formula:

TEIXEIRA

  1. Carlos Delgado
  2. Kent Hrbek
  3. Fred McGriff

PUJOLS

  1. Jimmie Foxx
  2. Hank Aaron
  3. Frank Robinson

Maybe that’s the key to understanding how the Cardinals can approach Pujols’ new contract. It’s Teixeira or even Alex Rodriguez that they should consider. Neither compares. The question is: What would Hank Aaron make today?

***

How’s this entry for a stocking stuffer? Happy holidays. May all your wax packs have a rookie card.

-30-

63 comments

Comments are closed.

If anyone in sports is worth $30 million, it is Pujols. I can only hope that a 10 year contract is coming next year worth $208 million. The $8 million is two $4 million signing bonus installments to increase the worth of 2010 and 2011 to $20 million, to match 2012-2021. I would be very happy with that contract. Not a large salary increase, he’s still making a crapton of money, and it is a constant amount, no back loading to fluctuate the payroll in later years.

Am I too optimistic?

— Joel Koch
12:38 pm December 24th, 2008

That’s scary. Great column. I was telling my friend who was complaining about the Yanks getting all these great players that I wasn’t worried, because we still have the best player in baseball. I feel honored just to be able to see him suit up year-in and year-out. I just hope he continues to do so with the birds on the bat on his chest! He makes me proud to be a cardinals fan.

— JasonS
12:46 pm December 24th, 2008

I’m gonna need a stiff glass of eggnog to recover from the thought of Pujols earning more than $30 million.

— Sunil
12:56 pm December 24th, 2008

Very interesting article, and thanks for the breakdown. We often forget that Pujols has shown tremendous loyalty to the Cardinals organization and the city of St. Louis as we are spoiled with his fantastically consistent high level of play on the field.

It would be a real shame if he didn’t finish his career here, and it would also be a shame if the Cardinals didn’t offer him a competitive extension near the end of his current deal. If his prior loyalty is any indication, Pujols would likely accept a reasonable offer from the team, but that loyalty shouldn’t be used against him either. He’s given so much to the team and the city that he deserves a fair market deal.

— westudi
12:59 pm December 24th, 2008

I think Dewitt will take care of business on this one. The Cardinals don’t have much of a Franchise without him. In the interview with 1380 after the MVP award presentation at Busch Pujols said words like that s my dream to spend my whole career with the same team. So I think they will get something worked out.

— TimH
1:25 pm December 24th, 2008

Excellent job Derrick! Lots of mind-numbing numbers! I really hope the Cardinals and Pujols can settle on something fair, considering the dollars spent on high money players. That said, the Cardinals are not the Yankees. The list is very short on which teams can afford the four highest paid players in baseball. I hope Pujols will consider that the next time he and the Cardinals go to the negotiating table.

Sunil, do you have an extra stiff glass of that eggnog?

— Cardsballhawk
1:28 pm December 24th, 2008

The good news about the signing of Teixeira for 8 years is that the Yankees will not need Pujols’ services when his contract with the Cardinals expires, which means one less competitor that we will have.

— darin
1:35 pm December 24th, 2008

This seems kind of doom-and-gloom. But, here’s the silver lining to the Teixeira deal: he’ll still be under contract with the Yankees when/if Pujols does become a free agent again. I know the AL has the DH, but I think the Teixeira signing, while it probably drove up the price for Pujols, greatly increases the chances that we do keep him around.

— Mike
1:39 pm December 24th, 2008

Maybe, Teixeira should be thanking Pujol’s?

— theotherjimm
1:45 pm December 24th, 2008

Something else interesting to consider, is to remember that Pujols has joined a bid to bring a MLS soccer team to St. Louis. If the city of St. Louis does land an MLS franchise, Pujols’ ties to this franchise could factor in to his decision to remain a Cardinal.

— emc2013
1:55 pm December 24th, 2008

teixeira is one of the most overated players in the league he has one good year and he is making more than pujols i hope that he sucks an egg this year so the yankees can take that 180 million dollar deal and do something else with it like trying to buy every decent player in the major leages and just put some in the farm system to save them for later

— Austin
1:58 pm December 24th, 2008

There are very few players worth these great sums of money, and Pujols is one of them. If his demands are $30 million, he will get $30 million. I really, really hope he retires a Cardinal.

— Brian White
2:15 pm December 24th, 2008

I am going to drink the same eggnog most of the previous posts to this article indicated. Here’s to Pujos staying with the Cardinals until he retires. Here is to the owners paying him the current value when they do negotiate a new contract.

— BIG BOB
4:00 pm December 24th, 2008

Pujols should always be a Cardinal. I just hope the Cards field a competitive team around him (See Ozzie Smith, ‘88-’95).

— Eric
4:07 pm December 24th, 2008

whatever Pujols wants…just…pay…it.

— E Mar
7:05 pm December 24th, 2008

Albert Pujols pays for himself. Period.

— Topher Smith
8:17 pm December 24th, 2008

I just hope AP stays a Cardinal, however it happens.

Great column!

— hinton
8:36 pm December 24th, 2008

I think the only way the cards can keep Albert is to offer him a share of ownership. Either that, or the team will have to come up with a huge wad of cash to equal what the Yankees will offer. Albert seems to be a stand up guy and a rather old fashioned person. It’s possible that he would bend considerably more than expected to remain a cardinal. He only needs to look at Stan Musial to see the advantages to being king of St. Louis. Signing Albert will be the ultimate creative challenge for the front office. However, when considering what to offer they must ask themselves, “what would the Yankees pay?” If he hits the free market, forty is not out of the question.

— roger from tahoe
8:42 pm December 24th, 2008

Good job Derrick!

Thanks for doing all the homework in public for Jose’ Albert to be embarassed by, and for BHSP to use in any of their error-ridden attempts to over-inflate future negotiations. What a bonehead! One thing you’ve glaringly left out, and one thing St. Louis Pujols fans have been increasingly exposed to, is injuries. Jose’ has been, and is currently, a baseball superstar based on his extraordinary performance. However, intelligent handicappers have become keenly aware of the increasing regularity with which his back, thigh, and oblique issues will not just disappear into the thick Ballpark Village night. By 32, he’ll be exponentially less productive…he’s only human after all, and his body is already sending the alarms. We are now on the downhill slide of this very talented athlete.

David Eckstein was a major Cardinal superhero. But, alas, he is human. His performance suffered, his own injuries increased and festered, to a point where he eventually became a trade.

So, thanks Derrick for the ill-advised, public, monetary comparison between the two, totally different situations. The front office, I’m sure, isn’t a fan of the inaccurate case you’ve made for a Pujols windfall. Albert, I am sure, isn’t appreciative of the inferences you’ve made either, that he was worth much, much more all this time. St. Louis is not New York… not even close. See you at the park.

— Wilton Saarzgaurd
8:43 pm December 24th, 2008

Albert should retire a Cardinal,like Musial and Gibson he should never wear another uniform. 10 years 20 million per year and a chance to remain with organization after retirement as a coach on the way to manager. Not only is Pujols a great talent, he has a great feel for the game.

— Bruce Nimrick
9:14 pm December 24th, 2008

Mr. Goold I’m not disagreeing with your point Pujols is the benchmark when it comes to firstbasemen in this league. Teixera is one of the best of his era, Pujols is one of the best ever. I did notice one problem with your comparision; when you compared VORP over the last two years you didn’t take into account that Teixera was traded mid year. Those VORP numbers you site are his numbers for one team not overall. When you add those numbers together esp. in 2008 Teixera becomes a more valuable player, though still doesn’t surpass Pujols.

— Steveo
9:32 pm December 24th, 2008

When it comes time for the Cards to work out a new contract with Pujols, I predict that the main problems aren’t going to be with what the Cards offer or what Pujols wants, but with what the Players’ Union is going to push for Pujols to get. The MLBPA is going to have a huge stake in Pujols next contract because they will see him as a market setter for every other superstar player for years to come. If they can get Pujols an offer of $30-35 million a year from the Yankees or Red Sox instead of him agreeing to take $20-25 million to stay in St. Louis, they are going to push very hard for him to go to New York or Boston.

— M. Mitchell
9:46 pm December 24th, 2008

Red Sox will sign Pujols if they can’t get Teixeira OR Holliday, for several reasons. One, is that if Jason Bay walks as a free agent and Pujols is signed they can move him to left field since he has experience their and can let Lars Anderson come up still from the majors. And two, he would be that bat in the middle of the lineup that the Sox would dearly want to have. Call me crazy, but it should happen if the Sox don’t land Teixeira OR Holliday

— JoshE
9:47 pm December 24th, 2008

Excellent point about the Yankees having Teixeira locked up well past the time Pujols will hit free agency. But, the Yankees don’t have a $20-million player at second base … and Pujols has played second base before … he was technically an “All-Star” there …

Hmmm.

Back to sneaking Santa stuff under the tree.

dg
-30-

— Derrick Goold
10:39 pm December 24th, 2008

PUJOLS SHOULD GET 8 YEARS FOR 200 MILLION PLUS BONUS FOR 3000 HITS, 600 HOMERS, & MVP’S MAKING A TOTAL OF 216 MILLION POSSIBLE. ANYTHING LESS WOULD BE AN INSULT. BY YEAR 8 HE WOULD STILL BE A BIG BARGAIN.

— MIKEROBBERS
11:19 pm December 24th, 2008

Are you kidding me? A-Rod doesn’t compare to Pujols? Get your head out of the sand.

A-Rod is going to go down as the best hitter ever.

— Pete
11:22 pm December 24th, 2008

Well said MIKE. But, DeWitt will roll over in his grave before he turns loose that kind of cash. He better or the 3 million fan base may fall way short when Albert is not a Cardinals anymore?

Albert retires a Cardinal. We all enjoy the days of SUmmer.

— Dewitt too Tight for Birds
11:23 pm December 24th, 2008

Good article, but missed on the part about Tex’s VORP. Since he was traded in both 08′ and 07′, he had two split VORP ratings for both years. He was at 31.0 with the Braves, and 35.2 with the Angels in 08′. In 07′ he was at 26.0 with Texas, and 27.1 with Atlanta. His 66.2 VORP would rank him at 5th in the MLB in 2008, just ahead of David Wright. In 2007 his 53.1 VORP was good enough for 24th in the MLB.

Just like with Manny coming in at 23rd (48.4) in his time with the Dodgers, and 59th (34.4) with Boston, respectively. However, if you add them together, Manny was 2nd in all of baseball with a 82.8 VORP. Always have to remember to add the split numbers for traded players.

— Cosmo
11:31 pm December 24th, 2008

Albert should never be with any team but the Cardinals. Any thing else would be down right wrong.

— j
1:37 am December 25th, 2008

Someone posted on Card’s talk the other day that we should just give him a blank check. I think I’m starting to agree.

I love ya Albert, and hope with all my heart you stay in St.Louis.

— KENO
2:24 am December 25th, 2008

I WANT ALBERT PUJOLS TO RETIRE A CARDINAL!!!!!!!!!!!! WE NEED TO GIVE HIM A 6 YEAR CONTRACT EXTENTION NOW!!!!!!!! THAT WOULD TAKE HIM TO 38 YEARS OLD. YOU GUYS WHO THANK THAT JUST BECAUSE THE YANKS SIGNED MARK TEIXERA THEY WOULD NOT GO AFTER ALBERT PUJOLS TODAY,NEXT YEAR OR 2011,,,,YOU HAVE BEEN IN THE BOTTLE WITH OUT THE EGGNOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YANKS WOULD GET HIM NOW!!!!!! REMEMBER TEIXERA @ PUJOLS WERE BOTH 3rd BASEMAN. YES A.ROD IS THERE BUT JETER IS FREE AGENT AFTER 2011?? YANKS HAVE DH. ROTATE PUJOLS TEIXERA,A ROD JETER AT DH. ANY WAY JUST SIGN PUJOLS TO A 6-7 YEAR CONTRACT SO WE DONT HAVE TO WORRIE OR TALK ABOUT THIS BAD DREAM EVER AGAIN!!!!!!!!!! BESIDE AFTER SIGNING PUJOLS THEN MO CAN SAY WE ARE NOT CHEEP!!!!!!! LOOK HOW MUCH WE SPENT ON ALBERT!!!!!!! AND FOR 1 TIME HE WOULD BE RIGHT!!!!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!!!

— Bryan Cathey
2:42 am December 25th, 2008

Great read Derrick-
Part of me thinks that there is NO way Bill DeWallet pays that kind of money to Pujols. But the guy is a business man and he has to realize who is putting fans in the seats. Personally I hope Pujols doesn’t fall for the “home town discount” crap and backs up a Brinks trunk to Busch Stadium. If there is one player that deserves the $ it is him. It will be fun to watch it all unfold, that’s for sure. Pujols won’t be too happy to hear phrases like “creative”, “patient”, “opportunistic”, “conservative” or “dry powder”.

— stloonet
6:49 am December 25th, 2008

Great great article your analysis is spot on, and your conclusion is also spot on he will at 32, sign a 10/320mil offer if he makes it to free agency. Even though i’m a Cub fan I would trade anyone (any four/five/six/seven players and throw in wrigley field) players to have the best hitter of our generation. Maybe a reasonable offer to him from the cards would be somewhere around 6-8 years at 27 a peice…also i’m pretty sure Alex Rodriguez is making 32.5 million if not this year than for the next couple of years before his average annual salary drops.

— Greatarticlelovedthestats
7:35 am December 25th, 2008

i really hope that the cards does what it takes to get albert today!! fix this problem now..

— stlnightmare
8:47 am December 25th, 2008

Does this make anyone else want to wish for a salary cap in baseball by the end of the 2011 season???

— Mookie
8:52 am December 25th, 2008

Sign baseball God Pujols now!!!!!!!!!! give him 25 million each year till retirement. 10 year, 250 million!!!!

— cubs hater
9:23 am December 25th, 2008

The Cards are simply not going to be able to afford Pujols, unless he takes less to stay in St. Louis. Players often talk about “hometown discount”, until the numbers are on the table. Then the highest number wins. The Yankees or Red Sox will match and add to any offer the Cards make. That is why the Cards should move right now to sew up Albert. If he balks at extension at market, then I am afraid that the team will need to consider a Herschel Walker type trade. I do not want it to get to that point, but anyone who takes comfort in the fact that Pujols is currently under contract and, thus, a Cardinal for two years (I believe there is an option in 2011, but that will never be exercised without an extension) has his or her head squarely buried in the sand. The Cardinal organization is no longer baseball Nirvana. It is simply one of a handful of teams who try to compete at a lower tier salary structure with the Yankees, Sox, Cubs and Dodgers (if they choose to spend).

— Jeff
9:25 am December 25th, 2008

Thing is…the cardinals are so cheap, I don’t see them paying Pujols

— Brandon
10:06 am December 25th, 2008

It is amazing the clouded adulation that is clearly obscuring the point of error in judgement here. Just as DG left out of his comparison, Jose’ Albert’s health is going to loom LARGE for ANY team going forward. His muscle and tendon issues are not going to get better. Any future negotiations will contain performance and health provisions that will be harder and harder for Pujols to deal with. So, retire if he will a Cardinal, but any windfall will have to be matched with health, and a part-time 1st basemen doesn’t earn as much in St. Louis, let alone New York.

Tony had no business issues dealing Eckstein, and David surely was a St. Louis hero. Ozzie retired a Cardinal, but what was his playing time, shoulder health and status with Tony near the end? Again, Derrick makes an apples to oranges comparison with both the player and the city he plays in. New York is not St. Louis.

— Wilton Saarzgaurd
11:40 am December 25th, 2008

It’s very sad, but a small/mid mkt rust-belt city, poised for 1 of the worst economic slumps in the nation, simply team can’t pay the Musial of our day (Pujols) Yankees type money. How long is MLB going to allow the top few markets dominate the free agency. The uneven playing field will have no greater significance than in the new economy; Making the loss of Pujols inevitable. If there’s any justice in the recession, it will take the Yankees down first! Thanks for your many years Albert! We’ll treasure our last few seasons & will be sure to tell our kids about the glory days just as my father spoke of Musial’s day.

— Chris Hosto
12:24 pm December 25th, 2008

No player - NONE - should get $30 million per season. It would cripple the Cards. Think they’re cheap now? Wait until 1/3 of their payroll is tied up in one player. Any intelligent fan would realize this, but we have some of the dumbest in baseball, not smartest. Most are sheep who stand and applaud at everything because that’s what ESPN expects them to do. If he wants $30 mil. per year, don’t let the door hit him in the rear on the way out.

— Kyle
1:23 pm December 25th, 2008

Wow, is it really necessary to make personal attacks just because you don’t agree with someone? Look, Albert is a pretty complex guy as far as I can tell, which means that a lot more than pure dollars will factor into Albert’s decision about re-signing with the Cards. He’s not a Boras type to whom money is all. Imo, Albert will most likely rank a team’s competitiveness very highly. The guy is a monster competitor and that’s what drives him. If the Cards continue to be a 4th place team, that will be more likely to send Albert elsewhere than the money he is offered. The Cards need to make him an offer that is competitive and they need to give him a team that is competitive to play on.

— LPD
2:03 pm December 25th, 2008

For a minute there, I thought I was reading Pujols’ arbitration brief prepared by his agent…great job assembling the numbers and constructing an argument for Pujols’ impact and importance to the Cardinals and baseball, in general. But, how do you honestly measure those intangibles?

— Steve
2:45 pm December 25th, 2008

Great, awe-inspiring stuff. We live in a nation who pay people the GDP of industrial countries.

— Chris
4:01 pm December 25th, 2008

My bet would be that Dewitt sells the Cardinals before Pujol’s current contract is up, and he’ll leave this to the new owner(s) to deal with. Dewitt won’t decide to pay a single player — no matter how good — 25% or more of Cards’ total payroll. And he won’t want to be known as the man who let Pujols leave. Maybe the next owner will pay, seeing Pujols as a large part of the current value of the Cardinals and that the new owner couldn’t take the PR/fan hit not to re-sign him. (He won’t want to be known as the man who let Pujols leave either.) Of course, all of that ignores that any contract is always a matter of mutual agreement of both parties. Pujols is a student of the game, and it seems its history as well. I’d expect Pujols to be less motivated by the money differential (or even no differential, if the Cards were to pony up and the money were to be about the same in STL v. other teams), than his place in the game’s history, the greater likelihood of making the playoffs every year with a team like the NYY or Boston, and likelihood of post-season honors. Surely he sees that Musial isn’t given his due, either absolutely or relatively, as compared to Dimaggio and others who played in big markets, particularly on the east coast. Bristol, CT’s influence only grows. This past year, many in the media argued that Pujols wasn’t the NL MVP because his team didn’t make the playoffs, and he had to compete for that honor against decidedly lesser players, and especially against a one-dimensional player. I also wonder how much of Albert’s already indicated “no hometown discount” position isn’t the beginning of positioning the Cards’ management as the “bad guy” in a potential breakup. In short, as much as I’d like to see Albert be a life-long Cardinal, I think the smart money is to the contrary.

“Of course, that’s just my opinion. I could be wrong.” - Dennis Miller

— flatriverboy
5:11 pm December 25th, 2008

Curses. I appreciate those who pointed out the flaw in my statistical searches when it came to VORP. While I scored the right number, I botched the rankings because of the split teams. OK, so that’s fixed. And boy does it make so much more sense … But it doesn’t detract from the premise. To be honest, in helps it. And for that I appreciate the heads up, the patience, the courteous notes (most of them) and, as always, the savvy readers that this blog attracts and, I hope, cultivates.

Hope the holiday was good for everyone. I have a slice of homemade pumpkin pie waiting for me as an exclamation point on the day. Should help drown the taste of fouling up those stats. Apologies.

dg
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— Derrick Goold
9:14 pm December 25th, 2008

I’m sure DumWitt and puppet MOWitt will figure out a way to make it appear that they will try to sign Albert but they will cave just like they always do. If they don’t make some moves soon, I sincerely hope the fans will stay away from the ballpark in huge numbers. The only way these BOZOs will get the message is if we hit them in the pocketbook. Of course, they will blame the economy for the drop in attendance but us fans will know the truth. It will be more a result of their total disregard for the fans’s loyalty. It’s time we paid them back!!!! Please make a boycott one of your New Year’s resolutions.

— Charlie
11:28 pm December 25th, 2008

Enjoy him while you can people. This organization will not pony up what it will take to re-sign Albert when the time is right. And put yourself in Albert’s shoes, I’m sure he wants to contend for championships on a yearly basis. Witness this last year when the team did nothing to shore up a bullpen in shambles or to get some protection for Albert before the trading deadline. Resolve either of those issues and we would have been in the playoffs. My guess is that Albert is already looking forward to the day when he can move on to an organization with a committment to winning EVERY YEAR, and as the greatest player in the game, he certainly deserves that opportunity.

— Rich
8:27 am December 26th, 2008

We should all be thankful we aren’t Yankee’s fans or part of an organization that has to pay that much to get people to play for you. The Cardinal’s are cheap, but I am fine with a team and a town that is comfortable and can attract players to take less to get more in the long run.

— cornfool41
9:54 am December 26th, 2008

Pujols is without a doubt the best baseball player I have ever watched play the game. Is he already the best Cardinal ever? Possibly. Why would you not lock him in. Conversely, as Albert, why not go down as the greatest Cardinal to ever play the game.

I would die inside if he retired as an Angel or a Red Stocking

— Jimbo
11:17 am December 26th, 2008

As a lifelong Cardinals fan I too would hate to see Albert go; which he may or may not do. But, let’s keep things in perspective here–it is just a game. Enjoy him while the Birds have him, and if down the road he chooses to go, for whatever reason; can you not show a little class and respect and wish Albert all the best. I think after all, he has given HIS best to St. Louis on and off the field. We owe him at least the same courtesy.

— Getagrip
1:39 pm December 26th, 2008

I have a sick feeling that they will screw this up like they have with several “attempted” signings. I expect they will try and convince Albert to work on the home-town discount, but he deserves much more than that. I read somewhere that Mo does not believe there is any hurry to sign Albert. Just get it over with and make him a Cardinal for life!

— BleednRed
6:09 pm December 26th, 2008

I would need more than eggnog if Albert ever suits up in another uniform. Just the thought of him batting for a visting team in Busch would make it cry.

— Mary
7:00 pm December 26th, 2008

Every free agent that signs a contract is helping to set the bar for the next free agent. It used to be that baseball only had to worry about contracts that were clear overpays to get the guy’s services, but now it has to contend with the spending of the Yankees. While it is true that the Yankees have always been able to have the league’s highest payroll, it would have seemed impossible that the Yankees could have actually signed the 3 highest free agent contracts in this class. In comparison, a club’s inability to spend in that fashion will make it very difficult for even more teams to retain their best players, not only the small-markets of baseball but some middle-markets as well.

In relation to Albert, he will stay a Cardinal the rest of his career even if it means there isn’t much around him. There is too much Pujols does on and off the field to ever see him in anything but a Cardinal uniform. The club doesn’t need to rush to a long-term extension unless Ryan Howard or Adrian Gonzalez go into the final year of their contracts, because the Mets, Red Sox, Angels could seek a first baseman and the Yankees could seek a DH. Imagine one of those names signing an 8/200 or 10/250 contract because the big markets are outbidding each other and raising the bar even higher? Scary.

— Michael Scriven
7:38 pm December 26th, 2008

In dealing with “superstar” franchise players, statistics can sometimes mean very little in the BIG picture, the true bottom line that most owners see…marketability. How much is a player like Albert Pujols worth at the gate? How about the merchandise with his name on it? High profile TV appearances only further expose the Cardinal brand to the world.

There are very few true “superstars” in sports. Albert Pujols IS a superstar. If he played in NY, and won a World Series, he would have movies being made about his life, right now.

Thankfully, he’s not and that’s why I feel it is important to address his contract status…..IF it’s an issue with Albert himself. A 5 year extension at 25 million a year, could make a lot of sense for the Cardinals.

— Brian White
7:56 pm December 26th, 2008

I mentioned earlier that the team will have to be creative to extend Albert. One way, and I’m not sure it is legal, is to compensate him with assets that will grow with time. Like a grocery store, or car dealerships, or restaurants etc. Things that are worth x amount now, but will be worth x+++ in the future. Perhaps real estate. All these things also help tie him into the community. The cards must find what means more to Albert than money. Then secure that into the future for him. He has earned almost whatever he wants. Help him get it, soon.

— roger from tahoe
11:59 pm December 26th, 2008

pujols will stay a card. while they don’t throw money on the cc’s of the world, they will with albert. he won’t go to nyc. he seems to hate any media, avoids eye contact in public, etc. i saw him out to dinner on the night he won mvp and he looked he’d come from a funeral. nobody paid attention to him, though. nyc or beantown are really the only places who’d buck up, but i can’t imagine that. the birds will buck up for him, if not $ for $ but will be competitive. he’ll stay…so long as the cards surround him w/ some talent!

— g
6:53 am December 27th, 2008

They should do a mid-saeson deal in 09 announcing that AP has signed a 10 yr $200M deal. That takes him to age 40. it’s a good deal for the Cards and reasonable for AP. the union would be the only ones not happy with it.

How is deferred salary handled? probably different by team / player but do they generally plunk money into some sort of annuity that then disburses payment to the player? Does it have to be fully funded at time of signing or does the team pay in over time?

Pujols is one of the few Cards players who actually looks good in the throw-back blue polyester uni.

— KMac
7:36 am December 27th, 2008

Very interesting article, thank you. Now though, I have one question, well a couple, but one main one - how much is enough? I mean can one person really “set up” his family, his family’s family, his family’s family’s family forever? Albert is a HOFer that’s for sure and I certainly hope he wears the birds on the bat when he enters. But MLB must and I mean MUST AND SOON get a salary cap like the NFL so that the champions every year are not just the NYY, NYM, BoSox, LAA or LAD (notice I skipped Chicago as they are idiots running those franchises and won’t win again in our lifetime, but should be on an annual basis) who are the high revenue teams. Tampa was an exception as there have been lately, but have the low rent teams hoisted the trophy at the end or just “competed” well? MLB will get to the point, if it hasn’t already, that the common man and fan will not attend, nor care. The ecomonics of the situation dictate that only the rich or the ones with connections of big business will get to attend games, playoffs, WS, All-Star games, etc., so we won’t care to buy an Albert Pujols jersey or t-shirt or StL hat. Then where will the money come from to sign these players? And let’s not quit on TV too! ESPN, ABC, NBC, CBS, Turner, etc. are taking the game away from future wage earners by broadcasting the games so darn late at night that the typical school age boy or girl can’t stay up late to watch it. Some day their attitude will be “who cares” and they won’t pass a love of the game down to their kids and that will be the end of it as we know it. Until the Commissioner (who is an utter joke & should quit “for the love of the game”) gets this, it’s a vicious circle that won’t end. No longer is baseball, or any other sport, for the love of the game and a great lifestyle, it’s to make more money than one family needs/deserves in 5 lifetimes. Somehow we must boycott the game until MLB gets “it”.

— Greg G.
8:22 am December 27th, 2008

200 million?? was that a typo? Heck yeah you would hope he would take that deal, but that would be an insult. Pujols is better than Arod…his last deal was 10 years 275 million. Grab your britches and wait for the 10 year 300 million plus movie deals, clothing lines, streets, town hall, and possibly even re-naming St. Louis to St. Alberts.

— brandon
3:36 pm December 27th, 2008

Does anyone in there right mind think that THIS OWNERSHIP would pay Albert Pujols the $26-$30 million for at least six years he could get from a large market team, e. g., the Mets or the Cubs? This is an ownership that rather would release an arbitration-eligible player who had a good year rather than pay that player his worth by industry standards. This ownership never has ever offered, much less paid, more than $10 million for an open market free agent, one from this team or another team.

Unlike before his last contract, when the Cardinals still had control of ownership of Pujols’ services after his contract expiration, but no control over what he would be paid in arbitration; this time they will lose any control through free agency.

Why is there all of this talk about trading Ludwick or Ankiel? It is clear the ownership does not want to pay the increases both of them would be due in arbitration after the productive years they had. The ownership knows it, and won’t even want to pay the $16 million he would get in his walk year, the last year of this contract.

The Cardinals have shown a willingness to release productive players rather than pay them what fair market value they would receive in arbitration, e. g., Aaron Miles for two consecutive years.

The Cardnals didn’t even draft the best pitcher in the 2007 draft, Rick Porcello, but let him slide to the Detroit Tigers, because he was represented by Scott Boras.

When the ownership talks about the Cardinals getting younger, the word “cheaper” must be substituted for the word “younger.”

The gap the Cardinals would be willing to pay Pujols over a multi-year deal from what he could achieve in free agency would be at least $70 million dollars. This is serious money and Pujols would be crazy to give this up. Everyone knows this and Pujols knows it.

In the early 1940’s the Cardinals sold a future Hall of Fame first baseman, Johnny Mize, to the Yankees. Something similar via trade will happen here. This ownership never will let Pujols sign with another team and get nothing other than draft choices in return. They will trade him after this year, before the 2009 season, and salvage whatever maximum value they could get for through a trade at that time. They wouldn’t even have to pay him $16 million for his last year then.

It would be innocent, childlike or adolescent mentality to think anything other than this or some other sceanario close to this will happen.

— Sheldon T
4:27 am December 28th, 2008

If any man is worth it, Albert is.

— James Thomas
10:53 am December 29th, 2008

one thing all of you are not mentioning is that the Yankees are not the only team who can pay for him: Red Sox, LAA, god forbid the cubs, dodgers… and if the yankees wanted him they would snatch him right up. DH any one?? all we can hope is that the STL gets a MLS team. never thought i would say that.

— ms
1:02 pm December 29th, 2008