Pujols’ Pending Payday: Teixeira Sets the Mark (Post-Xmas Update)
TOWER GROVE — Five years ago the St. Louis Cardinals and the finest hitter of his generation were steaming toward what could have been a dicey and milestone arbitration hearing when, in the 11th hour, Albert Pujols agreed to the largest contract in franchise history. The deal, still active today, made Pujols the ninth $100-million man in baseball history and, at 24, the youngest ever to reach the salary threshold.
As the MVP enters the penultimate year of his guaranteed contract, one thing is clear.
He’s been a bargain.
What is Albert Pujols worth?
News of the New York Yankees inking first baseman Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180-million deal rippled through baseball yesterday, and there were probably two interested parties who had little direct interest in where Teixeira signed. The Cardinals and Pujols’ reps cared about what Teixeira signed for. The switch-hitting, Gold Glove-caliber Teixeira finalized a deal with the spree-spending Yankees that averages $22.5 million a year, according to reports. More than Jason Giambi’s contract a few years ago with these same Yankees, Teixeira is a clear and tangible benchmark to help set the market for … well, what Pujols could command as a free agent. Does Teixeira’s new deal hint at Pujols’ next deal?
Both will be 29 during this coming season. Both hit in the middle of the order. Both play first.
Beyond that …
Pujols, while playing with a tear in his right elbow, won his second National League MVP this past season. Teixeira has finished only as high as seventh in the voting, and that was back in 2005. Teixeira, while a switch hitter, is a .290 career hitter with a .541 career slugging percentage. Pujols is a career .334 hitter with a .624 slugging percentage. Some statistical shakedowns:
CAREER … BA/OBP/SLG … 162-gm AVG (ba/obp/slg, hr, rbi)
Teixeira … .290/.378/.541 … .290/.378/.541, 36, 121
Pujols … .334/.425/.624 … .334/.425/.624, 42, 128
3-YEAR … BA/OBP/SLG … HR … RBI
Teixeira … .298/.393/,541 … 96 … 336
Pujols … .338/.440/.629 … 118 … 356
One number that deserves its popularity because of its authority and its ability to compare players against each other and the era in which they play is OPS+. It basically is on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage compared against the league average. It’s a number set at 100 — so <100 is below average and >100 is above average. Teixeira’s career OPS is a sturdy 134. Pujols’ is 170.
Using additional advanced-placement metrics that we have at our fingertips these days, Pujols pulls even further ahead. Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is simply the number of runs one player contributes to the team over what a replacement at the same position would do with the same number of plate appearances. This past season Pujols, despite the bum elbow, still led the majors with a 98.6 VORP, according to Baseball Prospectus. It is the second time in three seasons that Pujols has been No. 1. In the season he didn’t lead the majors, he still lead every first basemen in the majors.
Teixeira, and here comes the UPDATE (a/k/a, reader-aided deletion of writer utter boneheaded-ness) has routinely been a top-10 first baseman, but just cracked the top 20 for the first time in 2008.
VORP (according to Baseball Prospectus)
2008 — Teixeira: combined 66.2 (an impressive est. 5th), right around David Wright, Chase Utley, and high-priced Yankee Alex Rodriguez. … Pujols: 98.6 (1st).
2007 — Teixeira: combined 53.1 (est. 22nd), right around Grady Sizemore, Ryan Howard and high-priced Yankees Derek Jeter. Ranked fifth among first basemen. … Pujols: 72.1 (9th).
2006 — Teixeira: 37.4 (54th), sandwiched between Edgar Renteria and Scott Rolen, and we all know what was going on then with him. … Pujols: 85.4 (1st).
Pujols, it should be noted, does not switch-hit like Teixeira. Of course, he doesn’t need to.
Gold-standard: Pujols in the field
But what about defense? The measures of defense are constantly evolving and improving. One of the best out there right now is the plus/minus used by The Fielding Bible. This is the same publication that has awarded Pujols its equivalent of the Gold Glove every year that is has given out the award. Pujols won this year despite not leading his position in plus/minus for the first time in three seasons. Who did? Teixeira. It only takes a few games of watching Teixeira to know that he’s an above-average defensive player. Athletic. Agile. Etc. The numbers don’t necessarily support the eyes, but it’s safe to say Pujols and Teixeira are, ahem, in the same ballpark when it comes to playing first base.
Their plus/minus scores for the past three seasons (rank at the position in parentheses).
PLAYER, POS … 2006 … 2007 … 2008
TEIXEIRA, 1B … +2 (15) … -4 (22) … +24 (1)
PUJOLS, 1B … +25 (1) … +37 (1) … +20 (2)
All of that is prelude to the original question: What does Teixeira’s new deal tell us about Pujols’ next deal?
It’s a mind-boggling to consider. Is Pujols twice the player, twice the salary? Is Pujols 1 1/2-times the player? Pujols is signed on a guaranteed deal through 2010, and there is a $16-million option for the 2011 season. According to the USA Today salary database (see blogroll), Pujols’ salary didn’t crack the top 25 this past season, but at $16 million for 2009 he’ll likely be in the top 10. Teixeira, at about $20 million in 2009, could be in the top five.
The Cardinals, led then by Walt Jocketty, scored a coup by buying Pujols out of his arbitration years entirely, and they do have rights to him until just a few months before he turns 32. He is coming off surgery this season, but that elbow could also influence the kind of deal. His age and his elbow could reduce the years (term) Pujols will command — especially compared to 29-year-old Teixeira — but not the salary.
I’ve found a few places that have attempted to answer the question what Pujols would make as a free agent in today’s markets. Some present it merely as an academic discussion and don’t arrive at any answer. Others break into mathematical gymnastics far beyond this blog’s ability to translate. At The Baseball Economists’ blog, J.C. Bradbury frames his MVP argument in 2007 around revenue generated by a players’ performance. Pujols ranks well. At Fangraphs there was an announcement today that they are translating some of their sharpest stats into dollar figures and will have leaderboards up shortly. Over at The Book, a blog spawned from a book about The Book, the author wrestled with the Pujols Question, and came to some outrageous conclusions: $300 million. As his guide he used a fascinating scale based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), similar to the above Value.
The author’s chart is available here, and it illustrates how a player with a 7.0 wins above a replacement player is deserving of a 10-year, $305.9 million contract. (Yowza.)
Using those aforementioned Fangraph numbers, Pujols’ WAR in 2008 was … 9.0.
(Teixeira’s for argument sake was 6.8. And, yes, that’s combined.)
Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols after a home run.
Clearly, there is no way to calculate Pujols’ worth using other players’ salaries. He defies the market. Teixeira’s new contract only underscores what was already apparent: Pujols is due a raise. A hefty one. If five years ago, he was the youngest $100-million man, then two years from now is he the first $30-million year man? The way his contract with the Cardinals is structured they will be paying him deferred salary long after he retires, until 2029. Might as well minimize the paperwork and keep the paychecks coming from the same source.
To determine the value of that paycheck, however, you can’t rely on comparables. Or, maybe not current comparables. Baseball-Reference.com has a unique feature that compares a player at his current age against all players at the same age. For a majority of his career, Pujols has compared favorably to Joe DiMaggio. There was a break this season. Here are Teixeira’s and Pujols’ comparables, via Baseball-Reference.com’s formula:
TEIXEIRA
- Carlos Delgado
- Kent Hrbek
- Fred McGriff
PUJOLS
- Jimmie Foxx
- Hank Aaron
- Frank Robinson
Maybe that’s the key to understanding how the Cardinals can approach Pujols’ new contract. It’s Teixeira or even Alex Rodriguez that they should consider. Neither compares. The question is: What would Hank Aaron make today?
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How’s this entry for a stocking stuffer? Happy holidays. May all your wax packs have a rookie card.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I WANT ALBERT PUJOLS TO RETIRE A CARDINAL!!!!!!!!!!!! WE NEED TO GIVE HIM A 6 YEAR CONTRACT EXTENTION NOW!!!!!!!! THAT WOULD TAKE HIM TO 38 YEARS OLD. YOU GUYS WHO THANK THAT JUST BECAUSE THE YANKS SIGNED MARK TEIXERA THEY WOULD NOT GO AFTER ALBERT PUJOLS TODAY,NEXT YEAR OR 2011,,,,YOU HAVE BEEN IN THE BOTTLE WITH OUT THE EGGNOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YANKS WOULD GET HIM NOW!!!!!! REMEMBER TEIXERA @ PUJOLS WERE BOTH 3rd BASEMAN. YES A.ROD IS THERE BUT JETER IS FREE AGENT AFTER 2011?? YANKS HAVE DH. ROTATE PUJOLS TEIXERA,A ROD JETER AT DH. ANY WAY JUST SIGN PUJOLS TO A 6-7 YEAR CONTRACT SO WE DONT HAVE TO WORRIE OR TALK ABOUT THIS BAD DREAM EVER AGAIN!!!!!!!!!! BESIDE AFTER SIGNING PUJOLS THEN MO CAN SAY WE ARE NOT CHEEP!!!!!!! LOOK HOW MUCH WE SPENT ON ALBERT!!!!!!! AND FOR 1 TIME HE WOULD BE RIGHT!!!!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!!!
Great read Derrick-
Part of me thinks that there is NO way Bill DeWallet pays that kind of money to Pujols. But the guy is a business man and he has to realize who is putting fans in the seats. Personally I hope Pujols doesn’t fall for the “home town discount” crap and backs up a Brinks trunk to Busch Stadium. If there is one player that deserves the $ it is him. It will be fun to watch it all unfold, that’s for sure. Pujols won’t be too happy to hear phrases like “creative”, “patient”, “opportunistic”, “conservative” or “dry powder”.
Great great article your analysis is spot on, and your conclusion is also spot on he will at 32, sign a 10/320mil offer if he makes it to free agency. Even though i’m a Cub fan I would trade anyone (any four/five/six/seven players and throw in wrigley field) players to have the best hitter of our generation. Maybe a reasonable offer to him from the cards would be somewhere around 6-8 years at 27 a peice…also i’m pretty sure Alex Rodriguez is making 32.5 million if not this year than for the next couple of years before his average annual salary drops.
i really hope that the cards does what it takes to get albert today!! fix this problem now..
Does this make anyone else want to wish for a salary cap in baseball by the end of the 2011 season???
Sign baseball God Pujols now!!!!!!!!!! give him 25 million each year till retirement. 10 year, 250 million!!!!
The Cards are simply not going to be able to afford Pujols, unless he takes less to stay in St. Louis. Players often talk about “hometown discount”, until the numbers are on the table. Then the highest number wins. The Yankees or Red Sox will match and add to any offer the Cards make. That is why the Cards should move right now to sew up Albert. If he balks at extension at market, then I am afraid that the team will need to consider a Herschel Walker type trade. I do not want it to get to that point, but anyone who takes comfort in the fact that Pujols is currently under contract and, thus, a Cardinal for two years (I believe there is an option in 2011, but that will never be exercised without an extension) has his or her head squarely buried in the sand. The Cardinal organization is no longer baseball Nirvana. It is simply one of a handful of teams who try to compete at a lower tier salary structure with the Yankees, Sox, Cubs and Dodgers (if they choose to spend).
Thing is…the cardinals are so cheap, I don’t see them paying Pujols
It is amazing the clouded adulation that is clearly obscuring the point of error in judgement here. Just as DG left out of his comparison, Jose’ Albert’s health is going to loom LARGE for ANY team going forward. His muscle and tendon issues are not going to get better. Any future negotiations will contain performance and health provisions that will be harder and harder for Pujols to deal with. So, retire if he will a Cardinal, but any windfall will have to be matched with health, and a part-time 1st basemen doesn’t earn as much in St. Louis, let alone New York.
Tony had no business issues dealing Eckstein, and David surely was a St. Louis hero. Ozzie retired a Cardinal, but what was his playing time, shoulder health and status with Tony near the end? Again, Derrick makes an apples to oranges comparison with both the player and the city he plays in. New York is not St. Louis.
It’s very sad, but a small/mid mkt rust-belt city, poised for 1 of the worst economic slumps in the nation, simply team can’t pay the Musial of our day (Pujols) Yankees type money. How long is MLB going to allow the top few markets dominate the free agency. The uneven playing field will have no greater significance than in the new economy; Making the loss of Pujols inevitable. If there’s any justice in the recession, it will take the Yankees down first! Thanks for your many years Albert! We’ll treasure our last few seasons & will be sure to tell our kids about the glory days just as my father spoke of Musial’s day.