Pujols’ Pending Payday: Teixeira Sets the Mark (Post-Xmas Update)
TOWER GROVE — Five years ago the St. Louis Cardinals and the finest hitter of his generation were steaming toward what could have been a dicey and milestone arbitration hearing when, in the 11th hour, Albert Pujols agreed to the largest contract in franchise history. The deal, still active today, made Pujols the ninth $100-million man in baseball history and, at 24, the youngest ever to reach the salary threshold.
As the MVP enters the penultimate year of his guaranteed contract, one thing is clear.
He’s been a bargain.
What is Albert Pujols worth?
News of the New York Yankees inking first baseman Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180-million deal rippled through baseball yesterday, and there were probably two interested parties who had little direct interest in where Teixeira signed. The Cardinals and Pujols’ reps cared about what Teixeira signed for. The switch-hitting, Gold Glove-caliber Teixeira finalized a deal with the spree-spending Yankees that averages $22.5 million a year, according to reports. More than Jason Giambi’s contract a few years ago with these same Yankees, Teixeira is a clear and tangible benchmark to help set the market for … well, what Pujols could command as a free agent. Does Teixeira’s new deal hint at Pujols’ next deal?
Both will be 29 during this coming season. Both hit in the middle of the order. Both play first.
Beyond that …
Pujols, while playing with a tear in his right elbow, won his second National League MVP this past season. Teixeira has finished only as high as seventh in the voting, and that was back in 2005. Teixeira, while a switch hitter, is a .290 career hitter with a .541 career slugging percentage. Pujols is a career .334 hitter with a .624 slugging percentage. Some statistical shakedowns:
CAREER … BA/OBP/SLG … 162-gm AVG (ba/obp/slg, hr, rbi)
Teixeira … .290/.378/.541 … .290/.378/.541, 36, 121
Pujols … .334/.425/.624 … .334/.425/.624, 42, 128
3-YEAR … BA/OBP/SLG … HR … RBI
Teixeira … .298/.393/,541 … 96 … 336
Pujols … .338/.440/.629 … 118 … 356
One number that deserves its popularity because of its authority and its ability to compare players against each other and the era in which they play is OPS+. It basically is on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage compared against the league average. It’s a number set at 100 — so <100 is below average and >100 is above average. Teixeira’s career OPS is a sturdy 134. Pujols’ is 170.
Using additional advanced-placement metrics that we have at our fingertips these days, Pujols pulls even further ahead. Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is simply the number of runs one player contributes to the team over what a replacement at the same position would do with the same number of plate appearances. This past season Pujols, despite the bum elbow, still led the majors with a 98.6 VORP, according to Baseball Prospectus. It is the second time in three seasons that Pujols has been No. 1. In the season he didn’t lead the majors, he still lead every first basemen in the majors.
Teixeira, and here comes the UPDATE (a/k/a, reader-aided deletion of writer utter boneheaded-ness) has routinely been a top-10 first baseman, but just cracked the top 20 for the first time in 2008.
VORP (according to Baseball Prospectus)
2008 — Teixeira: combined 66.2 (an impressive est. 5th), right around David Wright, Chase Utley, and high-priced Yankee Alex Rodriguez. … Pujols: 98.6 (1st).
2007 — Teixeira: combined 53.1 (est. 22nd), right around Grady Sizemore, Ryan Howard and high-priced Yankees Derek Jeter. Ranked fifth among first basemen. … Pujols: 72.1 (9th).
2006 — Teixeira: 37.4 (54th), sandwiched between Edgar Renteria and Scott Rolen, and we all know what was going on then with him. … Pujols: 85.4 (1st).
Pujols, it should be noted, does not switch-hit like Teixeira. Of course, he doesn’t need to.
Gold-standard: Pujols in the field
But what about defense? The measures of defense are constantly evolving and improving. One of the best out there right now is the plus/minus used by The Fielding Bible. This is the same publication that has awarded Pujols its equivalent of the Gold Glove every year that is has given out the award. Pujols won this year despite not leading his position in plus/minus for the first time in three seasons. Who did? Teixeira. It only takes a few games of watching Teixeira to know that he’s an above-average defensive player. Athletic. Agile. Etc. The numbers don’t necessarily support the eyes, but it’s safe to say Pujols and Teixeira are, ahem, in the same ballpark when it comes to playing first base.
Their plus/minus scores for the past three seasons (rank at the position in parentheses).
PLAYER, POS … 2006 … 2007 … 2008
TEIXEIRA, 1B … +2 (15) … -4 (22) … +24 (1)
PUJOLS, 1B … +25 (1) … +37 (1) … +20 (2)
All of that is prelude to the original question: What does Teixeira’s new deal tell us about Pujols’ next deal?
It’s a mind-boggling to consider. Is Pujols twice the player, twice the salary? Is Pujols 1 1/2-times the player? Pujols is signed on a guaranteed deal through 2010, and there is a $16-million option for the 2011 season. According to the USA Today salary database (see blogroll), Pujols’ salary didn’t crack the top 25 this past season, but at $16 million for 2009 he’ll likely be in the top 10. Teixeira, at about $20 million in 2009, could be in the top five.
The Cardinals, led then by Walt Jocketty, scored a coup by buying Pujols out of his arbitration years entirely, and they do have rights to him until just a few months before he turns 32. He is coming off surgery this season, but that elbow could also influence the kind of deal. His age and his elbow could reduce the years (term) Pujols will command — especially compared to 29-year-old Teixeira — but not the salary.
I’ve found a few places that have attempted to answer the question what Pujols would make as a free agent in today’s markets. Some present it merely as an academic discussion and don’t arrive at any answer. Others break into mathematical gymnastics far beyond this blog’s ability to translate. At The Baseball Economists’ blog, J.C. Bradbury frames his MVP argument in 2007 around revenue generated by a players’ performance. Pujols ranks well. At Fangraphs there was an announcement today that they are translating some of their sharpest stats into dollar figures and will have leaderboards up shortly. Over at The Book, a blog spawned from a book about The Book, the author wrestled with the Pujols Question, and came to some outrageous conclusions: $300 million. As his guide he used a fascinating scale based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), similar to the above Value.
The author’s chart is available here, and it illustrates how a player with a 7.0 wins above a replacement player is deserving of a 10-year, $305.9 million contract. (Yowza.)
Using those aforementioned Fangraph numbers, Pujols’ WAR in 2008 was … 9.0.
(Teixeira’s for argument sake was 6.8. And, yes, that’s combined.)
Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols after a home run.
Clearly, there is no way to calculate Pujols’ worth using other players’ salaries. He defies the market. Teixeira’s new contract only underscores what was already apparent: Pujols is due a raise. A hefty one. If five years ago, he was the youngest $100-million man, then two years from now is he the first $30-million year man? The way his contract with the Cardinals is structured they will be paying him deferred salary long after he retires, until 2029. Might as well minimize the paperwork and keep the paychecks coming from the same source.
To determine the value of that paycheck, however, you can’t rely on comparables. Or, maybe not current comparables. Baseball-Reference.com has a unique feature that compares a player at his current age against all players at the same age. For a majority of his career, Pujols has compared favorably to Joe DiMaggio. There was a break this season. Here are Teixeira’s and Pujols’ comparables, via Baseball-Reference.com’s formula:
TEIXEIRA
- Carlos Delgado
- Kent Hrbek
- Fred McGriff
PUJOLS
- Jimmie Foxx
- Hank Aaron
- Frank Robinson
Maybe that’s the key to understanding how the Cardinals can approach Pujols’ new contract. It’s Teixeira or even Alex Rodriguez that they should consider. Neither compares. The question is: What would Hank Aaron make today?
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How’s this entry for a stocking stuffer? Happy holidays. May all your wax packs have a rookie card.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
No player - NONE - should get $30 million per season. It would cripple the Cards. Think they’re cheap now? Wait until 1/3 of their payroll is tied up in one player. Any intelligent fan would realize this, but we have some of the dumbest in baseball, not smartest. Most are sheep who stand and applaud at everything because that’s what ESPN expects them to do. If he wants $30 mil. per year, don’t let the door hit him in the rear on the way out.
Wow, is it really necessary to make personal attacks just because you don’t agree with someone? Look, Albert is a pretty complex guy as far as I can tell, which means that a lot more than pure dollars will factor into Albert’s decision about re-signing with the Cards. He’s not a Boras type to whom money is all. Imo, Albert will most likely rank a team’s competitiveness very highly. The guy is a monster competitor and that’s what drives him. If the Cards continue to be a 4th place team, that will be more likely to send Albert elsewhere than the money he is offered. The Cards need to make him an offer that is competitive and they need to give him a team that is competitive to play on.
For a minute there, I thought I was reading Pujols’ arbitration brief prepared by his agent…great job assembling the numbers and constructing an argument for Pujols’ impact and importance to the Cardinals and baseball, in general. But, how do you honestly measure those intangibles?
Great, awe-inspiring stuff. We live in a nation who pay people the GDP of industrial countries.
My bet would be that Dewitt sells the Cardinals before Pujol’s current contract is up, and he’ll leave this to the new owner(s) to deal with. Dewitt won’t decide to pay a single player — no matter how good — 25% or more of Cards’ total payroll. And he won’t want to be known as the man who let Pujols leave. Maybe the next owner will pay, seeing Pujols as a large part of the current value of the Cardinals and that the new owner couldn’t take the PR/fan hit not to re-sign him. (He won’t want to be known as the man who let Pujols leave either.) Of course, all of that ignores that any contract is always a matter of mutual agreement of both parties. Pujols is a student of the game, and it seems its history as well. I’d expect Pujols to be less motivated by the money differential (or even no differential, if the Cards were to pony up and the money were to be about the same in STL v. other teams), than his place in the game’s history, the greater likelihood of making the playoffs every year with a team like the NYY or Boston, and likelihood of post-season honors. Surely he sees that Musial isn’t given his due, either absolutely or relatively, as compared to Dimaggio and others who played in big markets, particularly on the east coast. Bristol, CT’s influence only grows. This past year, many in the media argued that Pujols wasn’t the NL MVP because his team didn’t make the playoffs, and he had to compete for that honor against decidedly lesser players, and especially against a one-dimensional player. I also wonder how much of Albert’s already indicated “no hometown discount” position isn’t the beginning of positioning the Cards’ management as the “bad guy” in a potential breakup. In short, as much as I’d like to see Albert be a life-long Cardinal, I think the smart money is to the contrary.
“Of course, that’s just my opinion. I could be wrong.” - Dennis Miller
Curses. I appreciate those who pointed out the flaw in my statistical searches when it came to VORP. While I scored the right number, I botched the rankings because of the split teams. OK, so that’s fixed. And boy does it make so much more sense … But it doesn’t detract from the premise. To be honest, in helps it. And for that I appreciate the heads up, the patience, the courteous notes (most of them) and, as always, the savvy readers that this blog attracts and, I hope, cultivates.
Hope the holiday was good for everyone. I have a slice of homemade pumpkin pie waiting for me as an exclamation point on the day. Should help drown the taste of fouling up those stats. Apologies.
dg
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I’m sure DumWitt and puppet MOWitt will figure out a way to make it appear that they will try to sign Albert but they will cave just like they always do. If they don’t make some moves soon, I sincerely hope the fans will stay away from the ballpark in huge numbers. The only way these BOZOs will get the message is if we hit them in the pocketbook. Of course, they will blame the economy for the drop in attendance but us fans will know the truth. It will be more a result of their total disregard for the fans’s loyalty. It’s time we paid them back!!!! Please make a boycott one of your New Year’s resolutions.
Enjoy him while you can people. This organization will not pony up what it will take to re-sign Albert when the time is right. And put yourself in Albert’s shoes, I’m sure he wants to contend for championships on a yearly basis. Witness this last year when the team did nothing to shore up a bullpen in shambles or to get some protection for Albert before the trading deadline. Resolve either of those issues and we would have been in the playoffs. My guess is that Albert is already looking forward to the day when he can move on to an organization with a committment to winning EVERY YEAR, and as the greatest player in the game, he certainly deserves that opportunity.
We should all be thankful we aren’t Yankee’s fans or part of an organization that has to pay that much to get people to play for you. The Cardinal’s are cheap, but I am fine with a team and a town that is comfortable and can attract players to take less to get more in the long run.
Pujols is without a doubt the best baseball player I have ever watched play the game. Is he already the best Cardinal ever? Possibly. Why would you not lock him in. Conversely, as Albert, why not go down as the greatest Cardinal to ever play the game.
I would die inside if he retired as an Angel or a Red Stocking