Pujols’ Pending Payday: Teixeira Sets the Mark (Post-Xmas Update)
TOWER GROVE — Five years ago the St. Louis Cardinals and the finest hitter of his generation were steaming toward what could have been a dicey and milestone arbitration hearing when, in the 11th hour, Albert Pujols agreed to the largest contract in franchise history. The deal, still active today, made Pujols the ninth $100-million man in baseball history and, at 24, the youngest ever to reach the salary threshold.
As the MVP enters the penultimate year of his guaranteed contract, one thing is clear.
He’s been a bargain.
What is Albert Pujols worth?
News of the New York Yankees inking first baseman Mark Teixeira to an eight-year, $180-million deal rippled through baseball yesterday, and there were probably two interested parties who had little direct interest in where Teixeira signed. The Cardinals and Pujols’ reps cared about what Teixeira signed for. The switch-hitting, Gold Glove-caliber Teixeira finalized a deal with the spree-spending Yankees that averages $22.5 million a year, according to reports. More than Jason Giambi’s contract a few years ago with these same Yankees, Teixeira is a clear and tangible benchmark to help set the market for … well, what Pujols could command as a free agent. Does Teixeira’s new deal hint at Pujols’ next deal?
Both will be 29 during this coming season. Both hit in the middle of the order. Both play first.
Beyond that …
Pujols, while playing with a tear in his right elbow, won his second National League MVP this past season. Teixeira has finished only as high as seventh in the voting, and that was back in 2005. Teixeira, while a switch hitter, is a .290 career hitter with a .541 career slugging percentage. Pujols is a career .334 hitter with a .624 slugging percentage. Some statistical shakedowns:
CAREER … BA/OBP/SLG … 162-gm AVG (ba/obp/slg, hr, rbi)
Teixeira … .290/.378/.541 … .290/.378/.541, 36, 121
Pujols … .334/.425/.624 … .334/.425/.624, 42, 128
3-YEAR … BA/OBP/SLG … HR … RBI
Teixeira … .298/.393/,541 … 96 … 336
Pujols … .338/.440/.629 … 118 … 356
One number that deserves its popularity because of its authority and its ability to compare players against each other and the era in which they play is OPS+. It basically is on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage compared against the league average. It’s a number set at 100 — so <100 is below average and >100 is above average. Teixeira’s career OPS is a sturdy 134. Pujols’ is 170.
Using additional advanced-placement metrics that we have at our fingertips these days, Pujols pulls even further ahead. Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is simply the number of runs one player contributes to the team over what a replacement at the same position would do with the same number of plate appearances. This past season Pujols, despite the bum elbow, still led the majors with a 98.6 VORP, according to Baseball Prospectus. It is the second time in three seasons that Pujols has been No. 1. In the season he didn’t lead the majors, he still lead every first basemen in the majors.
Teixeira, and here comes the UPDATE (a/k/a, reader-aided deletion of writer utter boneheaded-ness) has routinely been a top-10 first baseman, but just cracked the top 20 for the first time in 2008.
VORP (according to Baseball Prospectus)
2008 — Teixeira: combined 66.2 (an impressive est. 5th), right around David Wright, Chase Utley, and high-priced Yankee Alex Rodriguez. … Pujols: 98.6 (1st).
2007 — Teixeira: combined 53.1 (est. 22nd), right around Grady Sizemore, Ryan Howard and high-priced Yankees Derek Jeter. Ranked fifth among first basemen. … Pujols: 72.1 (9th).
2006 — Teixeira: 37.4 (54th), sandwiched between Edgar Renteria and Scott Rolen, and we all know what was going on then with him. … Pujols: 85.4 (1st).
Pujols, it should be noted, does not switch-hit like Teixeira. Of course, he doesn’t need to.
Gold-standard: Pujols in the field
But what about defense? The measures of defense are constantly evolving and improving. One of the best out there right now is the plus/minus used by The Fielding Bible. This is the same publication that has awarded Pujols its equivalent of the Gold Glove every year that is has given out the award. Pujols won this year despite not leading his position in plus/minus for the first time in three seasons. Who did? Teixeira. It only takes a few games of watching Teixeira to know that he’s an above-average defensive player. Athletic. Agile. Etc. The numbers don’t necessarily support the eyes, but it’s safe to say Pujols and Teixeira are, ahem, in the same ballpark when it comes to playing first base.
Their plus/minus scores for the past three seasons (rank at the position in parentheses).
PLAYER, POS … 2006 … 2007 … 2008
TEIXEIRA, 1B … +2 (15) … -4 (22) … +24 (1)
PUJOLS, 1B … +25 (1) … +37 (1) … +20 (2)
All of that is prelude to the original question: What does Teixeira’s new deal tell us about Pujols’ next deal?
It’s a mind-boggling to consider. Is Pujols twice the player, twice the salary? Is Pujols 1 1/2-times the player? Pujols is signed on a guaranteed deal through 2010, and there is a $16-million option for the 2011 season. According to the USA Today salary database (see blogroll), Pujols’ salary didn’t crack the top 25 this past season, but at $16 million for 2009 he’ll likely be in the top 10. Teixeira, at about $20 million in 2009, could be in the top five.
The Cardinals, led then by Walt Jocketty, scored a coup by buying Pujols out of his arbitration years entirely, and they do have rights to him until just a few months before he turns 32. He is coming off surgery this season, but that elbow could also influence the kind of deal. His age and his elbow could reduce the years (term) Pujols will command — especially compared to 29-year-old Teixeira — but not the salary.
I’ve found a few places that have attempted to answer the question what Pujols would make as a free agent in today’s markets. Some present it merely as an academic discussion and don’t arrive at any answer. Others break into mathematical gymnastics far beyond this blog’s ability to translate. At The Baseball Economists’ blog, J.C. Bradbury frames his MVP argument in 2007 around revenue generated by a players’ performance. Pujols ranks well. At Fangraphs there was an announcement today that they are translating some of their sharpest stats into dollar figures and will have leaderboards up shortly. Over at The Book, a blog spawned from a book about The Book, the author wrestled with the Pujols Question, and came to some outrageous conclusions: $300 million. As his guide he used a fascinating scale based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), similar to the above Value.
The author’s chart is available here, and it illustrates how a player with a 7.0 wins above a replacement player is deserving of a 10-year, $305.9 million contract. (Yowza.)
Using those aforementioned Fangraph numbers, Pujols’ WAR in 2008 was … 9.0.
(Teixeira’s for argument sake was 6.8. And, yes, that’s combined.)
Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols after a home run.
Clearly, there is no way to calculate Pujols’ worth using other players’ salaries. He defies the market. Teixeira’s new contract only underscores what was already apparent: Pujols is due a raise. A hefty one. If five years ago, he was the youngest $100-million man, then two years from now is he the first $30-million year man? The way his contract with the Cardinals is structured they will be paying him deferred salary long after he retires, until 2029. Might as well minimize the paperwork and keep the paychecks coming from the same source.
To determine the value of that paycheck, however, you can’t rely on comparables. Or, maybe not current comparables. Baseball-Reference.com has a unique feature that compares a player at his current age against all players at the same age. For a majority of his career, Pujols has compared favorably to Joe DiMaggio. There was a break this season. Here are Teixeira’s and Pujols’ comparables, via Baseball-Reference.com’s formula:
TEIXEIRA
- Carlos Delgado
- Kent Hrbek
- Fred McGriff
PUJOLS
- Jimmie Foxx
- Hank Aaron
- Frank Robinson
Maybe that’s the key to understanding how the Cardinals can approach Pujols’ new contract. It’s Teixeira or even Alex Rodriguez that they should consider. Neither compares. The question is: What would Hank Aaron make today?
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How’s this entry for a stocking stuffer? Happy holidays. May all your wax packs have a rookie card.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Does anyone in there right mind think that THIS OWNERSHIP would pay Albert Pujols the $26-$30 million for at least six years he could get from a large market team, e. g., the Mets or the Cubs? This is an ownership that rather would release an arbitration-eligible player who had a good year rather than pay that player his worth by industry standards. This ownership never has ever offered, much less paid, more than $10 million for an open market free agent, one from this team or another team.
Unlike before his last contract, when the Cardinals still had control of ownership of Pujols’ services after his contract expiration, but no control over what he would be paid in arbitration; this time they will lose any control through free agency.
Why is there all of this talk about trading Ludwick or Ankiel? It is clear the ownership does not want to pay the increases both of them would be due in arbitration after the productive years they had. The ownership knows it, and won’t even want to pay the $16 million he would get in his walk year, the last year of this contract.
The Cardinals have shown a willingness to release productive players rather than pay them what fair market value they would receive in arbitration, e. g., Aaron Miles for two consecutive years.
The Cardnals didn’t even draft the best pitcher in the 2007 draft, Rick Porcello, but let him slide to the Detroit Tigers, because he was represented by Scott Boras.
When the ownership talks about the Cardinals getting younger, the word “cheaper” must be substituted for the word “younger.”
The gap the Cardinals would be willing to pay Pujols over a multi-year deal from what he could achieve in free agency would be at least $70 million dollars. This is serious money and Pujols would be crazy to give this up. Everyone knows this and Pujols knows it.
In the early 1940’s the Cardinals sold a future Hall of Fame first baseman, Johnny Mize, to the Yankees. Something similar via trade will happen here. This ownership never will let Pujols sign with another team and get nothing other than draft choices in return. They will trade him after this year, before the 2009 season, and salvage whatever maximum value they could get for through a trade at that time. They wouldn’t even have to pay him $16 million for his last year then.
It would be innocent, childlike or adolescent mentality to think anything other than this or some other sceanario close to this will happen.
If any man is worth it, Albert is.
one thing all of you are not mentioning is that the Yankees are not the only team who can pay for him: Red Sox, LAA, god forbid the cubs, dodgers… and if the yankees wanted him they would snatch him right up. DH any one?? all we can hope is that the STL gets a MLS team. never thought i would say that.