St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30: Best Bang for the Biggest Bonus (voting No. 21)
TOWER GROVE — The St. Louis Cardinals thought enough of the talent available in the pool of international free agents this past summer to basically pass on the year before. Rather than blow the budget in 2007, they wanted to have the cash to contend for players in 2008.
They used most of it on Roberto De La Cruz, a third baseman.
Viewed by some in the industry as the most polished — and maybe the best — hitter available in the July 2 group, De La Cruz (a/k/a Roberto Pina), is a tough prospect to rank because there isn’t tangible performance or video or even many scouting reports to go with. As we reach the back third of the Bird Land Community Top 30 with today’s voting for No. 21, De La Cruz returns to the poll. But where should he rank? One coach told me that De La Cruz was very impressive during the instructional workouts the Cardinals held in Jupiter, Fla., this offseason. Another source mentioned that De La Cruz “should be ranked aggressively.”
This is what VP/farm director Jeff Luhnow told Future Redbirds about De La Cruz’s swing:
He has a short stroke to the ball and follows through (short to, long through). I saw him drive three 88-92 mph fastballs - one to left, one up the middle, and one to right. He also sat on a 82 mph slider and punched it to right for a single. While some have compared him to [Giants prospect Angel Villalona] (who will play in the futures game) I don’t think they are the same guy. Villalona (whom we scouted extensively) had more developed power at this stage but we felt was less likely to stick at third and more likely to be a first baseman.
A few people that I spoke to about De La Cruz suggested an easy way to judge his place in the Top 30: Check the bonus. Cruz received more than $1.2 million from the Cardinals, the most the club has ever paid an international signing in a bonus. This past year, only two minor leaguers in the system received a larger bonus from the Cardinals — Brett Wallace and Pete Kozma, the team’s past two first-round picks. While younger, it does seem fair to grade De La Cruz like a first-round pick as he advances. And word is he could advance immediately, jumping right to rookie-level Johnson City after extended spring training this season.
So, if he can be judged, long term, as a first-round pick, he can be ranked, short term, like a first-round pick.
The poll for No. 21 offers and interesting selection of big or notable bonuses. Righthanded pitcher Adam Ottavino, the former first-round pick, won the No. 20 poll with 34 percent of nearly 400 votes. He received $950,000 in a bonus. If you include De La Cruz with the draft picks, Ottavino’s bonus ranks sixth among prospects drafted (or signed) since the new-paradigm draft of 2005.
- Brett Wallace … $1.84 million
- Pete Kozma … $1.395 million
- Roberto De La Cruz … >$1.2 million
- Tyler Greene … $1.1 million
- Colby Rasmus … $1 million
- Adam Ottavino … $950,000
- Lance Lynn … $938,000
- Chris Perez … $800,000
- Mark McCormick … $800,000
Cardinals' prospect OF Shane Robinson received a newsworthy signing bonus. (Source: Commercial Appeal)
A total of 12 draft picks — not including De La Cruz, of course — have received bonuses of more than $600,000 since 2005. Of that group, Wallace’s is the only one to crack the all-time top-five of Cardinals’ bonuses, according to Baseball America. (No. 1 was J.D. Drew at $3 million, Rick Ankiel second at $2.5 million, then Chad Hutchinson at $2.3 million and fourth is now Wallace.) Ottavino, just ranked No. 20, was one. Another, youngster Tyler Herron, is right there with De La Cruz in this poll. Herron received a bonus of $675,000 coming out of high school.
And then there is Shane Robinson, also in this poll.
The outfielder, drafted in the fifth round (166th overall) in 2006, didn’t receive the hulking bonus of the others mentioned above. But his bonus is just as noteworthy as many of the others. Prying him out of the ACC, where he led the conference and Florida State in hitting, the Cardinals signed Robinson to a $175,000 bonus. He blossomed this past season with a run at the Texas League batting title — which he would have had a better chance to win had he not been promoted to Triple-A. He hit .352. What makes his bonus standout is he was the last time the Cardinals broke from slot to sign a draft pick. The player drafted by the Cardinals after Robinson, for example, got a $42,000 bonus.
The Cardinals broke from character to sign Robinson, just as they broke from habit to go after De La Cruz. Spending can be a guide when it comes to ranking players because it helps reveal the internal opinion of that player’s ceiling. But there comes a point where production trumps bonus. You just have look back at No. 20 to see that …
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
My first write-in vote…Deryk Hooker. He will start the year at Low-A Quad Cities as a 19yr old. He doesn’t turn 20 until late June. Splitting last year between Johnson City and Quad Cities (he skipped Batavia), Hooker put up the following line:
1-2, 3.11 ERA, 64.3 innings, 58 hits, 73 K’s, 20 walks (3.65k/bb)
He also struck out 27% of the batters he faced while walking only 7.5%. Scouting report says he has good to great command of a low 90’s fastball, good 12-6 curveball and a really good changeup. Furthermore, at 6′4″ he will probably gain some fastball velocity as he fills out.
Thus Deryk Hooker gets my vote for #21. I think he will be pitching in AA by the end of the year.
Here are a couple of links on Hooker for those who want to know more:
http://firstinning.com/players/James-Hooker-a/
http://stlcardinals.scout.com/2/822491.html
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Deryk-Hooker.shtml
If de la Cruz produces at all, this ranking will look low. I voted for him two spots ago, and mentioned him in the comments last time. I voted for him again - would someone explain how this Pina/de la Cruz thing works?
Hooker is a good pick, too. He’s all upside. I think he belongs somewhere below Herron. Herron is the better bet to stick as a starter. We don’t know if Hooker will ultimately start or relieve yet because he’s at such a low level. Almost everyone starts down there. I like his age, but we’ll have to see how he holds up. I don’t know that he projects to have three above average major league pitches.
- DG,
- With all the talk of these promising first round picks (which I love, bye the way) can someone on the site (Bernie, Strauss, yourself) please mention that signing Fuentes as a Type A Free Agent will cost the Birds next years’ first round pick? I feel that this fact has gone largely unnoticed as a potential downgrade to the signing of the “lefty-hammer.” Thanks for your continous coverage of the club!
Articles like this are incredibly inspiring! While the middle class disappears and the country slips in to a depression, we’re still able to keep our focus on celebrity gossip and pandering to jocks.
(Edited for sophomoric language, while retaining general sentiment.)
Almost all work on the value of draft picks places late 1st round picks with a minimum value of several million dollars just for the pick. Some, like Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus place that value at near $8 million. In any case, you have to get almost into the 3rd round before the economic value of the pick plus the slot bonus aren’t worth what we paid De La Cruz. In other words, you can’t compare the value of players based on their bonuses unless you also consider the value of the pick used to draft the player. In the case of De La Cruz we didn’t have to use a draft pick so he is not worth near as much as a player with a similar bonus who also required the use of a draft pick. On a pure economic argument such as is made in this blog post, Shane Peterson (2nd round pick) should be ranked ahead of De La Cruz.
Nothing wrong with ranking De La Cruz here on a talent basis but the economic argument being made is not sound.
Cario -
I think DG is just saying that it adds insight into what the team thinks of Pina/de la Cruz. He’s not saying that it reflects his actual value…I’m not sure what argument you’re trying to make.
Plus, I’m familiar with the Silver’s assessment. He has more recently backed off the 8 million figure and valued a first round pick at closer to 3 million. Keep in mind that the Cards will have their own methods of valuing picks that we aren’t privy to.
Carioca’s economic argument is right.
The Cards paid $1.2 million for De La Cruz.
They paid $938K *and the opportunity cost of no longer having the draft pick* for Lance Lynn.
So…if the Cards were thinking right and markets were working efficiently, then the Cards spent considerably more for Lynn than De La Cruz because of the opportunity cost.
De La Cruz is a good addition to the list, but I’m gonna stick with my man Castillo. I, too, have Herron ahead of Hooker, though I like both.
Mr. Handshear,
It has been mentioned several times about Fuentes costing a first-round pick because Colorado offered him arbitration. I’ve written it. I’ve read it in our coverage. It will be mentioned again. But it’s like Chris Carpenter’s health, the steroid issue and so many other things — can’t beat the same drum in every article. There is a lot of content produced on a daily basis, and we do a disservice to the readers when everything sounds the same, includes the same info and so on and so on.
Fuentes will cost the Cardinals a first-round pick.
That has to be a factor when considering his “cost”, if not his “price.”
There, that covers us for a few days. When/if the Cardinals sign the lefty closer then we’ll be sure to mention it again. You, however, are welcome to continue to make it a big part of the comments here, because it is important that people remember signing Fuentes costs a pick.
dg
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First of all, I’m “on the fence” on the Fuentes signing. My feeling is priority should be (in no particular order) 1) An innings-eating starter (starters must take some of the stress off the bullpen) 2)another lefty specialist for the pen 3)A righty power bat. I believe the closer could be handled by Perez-Motte-a vet (Kinney).
HOWEVER, IF Cards sign Fuentes for two years, he’ll (most probably) still be a “type A”– so they’ll get back their lost first rounder– when he walks in two years.