St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30: Fighting “prospect fatigue” (Vote No. 23)
TOWER GROVE — A year or so ago while organizing the rankings for Baseball America’s Cardinals Top 30, I came upon a pitcher who had been ranked for three consecutive years, had been considered a prospect at every level, and yet as he advanced was steadily sliding in the poll. There were some sources I spoke to who suggested that he shouldn’t be ranked a fourth time.
He had his term, went the argument, and it was time for an infusion of fresh prospects.
There was one thing that told me to ignore those arguments: The pitcher was the brink of making his major-league debut.
It seemed odd to me that a player who go every year since his draft as a Top-30 prospect and on the eve of his arrival in the majors suddenly … not be a prospect? In talking this through with editors and other writers it became apparent that this was not unusual. Players linger and linger and linger in the Top 30 as they climb steadily through the ranks and then, as they finish with a fine Triple-A season and arrive at big-league spring training, are discarded from the rankings in favor of the fresher, younger prospects with less of a track record and more “upside”.
We coined a phrase for this: Prospect Fatigue.
The St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30 poll reaches No. 23 today, Christmas Eve, and Prospect Fatigue could be in full effect. I’m certainly guilty. Lefthanded starter Nick Additon, a finesse pitcher with great numbers this past season, edged outfielder Shane Robinson with 29 percent of the about 200 or so voters. If that total of voters doesn’t tell you, the third consecutive second-place finish for Robinson should. Prospect Fatigue is setting in.
Cardinals OF Nick Stavinoha emerges as a Comm Top 30 candidate — and an example.
The same names keep bubbling up on the poll, and there is a gravitational pull to somebody new, somebody fresh, somebody who hasn’t been on the poll before.
That is even true when it comes to filling the poll.
Joining the group today is outfielder Nick Stavinoha, pride of LSU. He’s consistently been a prospect in most polls — last year’s Comm Top 30, the Scout.com poll, and at BA — and yet here we are, a few months removed from his major-league debut and he hasn’t yet appeared in the poll. All Stavinoha has done is hit .304/.346/.465 in his minor-league career and he’s coming off a Triple-A season when he hit .337/.366/.518. Robinson, who in many ways had a breakout season in 2008, falls into the same trap. He’s been on the poll as long — longer? — than any of the other candidates and yet he’s now getting leapfrogged by newer, fresher names.
Mike Parisi ran into this same phenomenon as the pitcher mentioned above. The righthander had a steady and reliable climb through the minor leagues. He had the pedigree of a prospect — starting pitcher, a quality pitch (that curve ball) and he was drafted in the ninth round of the 2004 draft. He debuted in the Top 30 at No. 17 in the 2005 Handbook, dropped to No. 26 in 2006 and fell out of the Top 30 in the 2007 Handbook. But here he was on his way to major-league spring training for 2008, a name that some major-league coaches had mentioned as a guy they wanted to see, they wanted to … consider. And he wasn’t going to be ranked? There wasn’t any legit reason not to rank him except for he had been and hadn’t yet made the majors.
But we fought through Prospect Fatigue, saw the player without our baggage, and put him where he belonged — ranked No. 23 in last year’s Baseball America Top 30. Keep that in mind as we vote on this year’s Comm Top 30 No. 23.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
- DG,
- Speaking of “prospect fatigue,” I’ve now been voting for Tyler Herron since the mid-teens. As you know, I’ve had little support. I remember reading during the season and winter meetings that many people in and out the organization view him as one of the club’s top starting pitching prospects. Can you explain the lack of love, and your overall thoughts on Herron’s future? Thanks for the many entries, as I love the information and debate.
Agree with MHandshear’s thoughts on Tyler Herron. Why the slide?
I’ve voted Herron repeatedly. This time I’m going Robinson to get him out of the way. Then Herron all the way out.
I’d like to hear thoughts on Donovan Solano, Deryk Hooker, Jon Edwards, Ryde Rodriguez, and Steve Hill to finish out the poll. If Arnoldi Cruz is going to stick at catcher, I’d move him in that list. Stavinoha could squeeze in. But the list is tight.
Robinson, Herron, De La Cruz, Castillo, Samuel should make it into the the top 30. Then three of the above.
I decided to vote for Herron, as well. Looks like a polished pitcher, he kept the walks down this season, and induced a lot of groundballs from hitters this past year. His stock may have dropped a bit in my opinion this past season, as by looking at his numbers he struggled a Springfield. Anyhow, he should certainly be higher than #23 on this list. Just my thoughts.
P.S. Prospect Fatigue = 26 year old rookie at AAA playing at a position that is backlogged and he isn’t at the front.
I think Robinson definately deserves to go here. I am a big Castillo fan, so I will be voting for him after Robinson
I’m the only one that voted for a write-in? I love Shane Robinson and he’s going to be a good Major League player one day, but Shaun Graceau shouldn’t be any lower than 23. I’d have to go Graceau over Robinson on this one, then peg Robinson for 24. Guess I’ll have to go the other way, seeings how I’m the only one thinking along these lines.
Nick Additon was a bad choice, sorry wisdom of the crowds. I’ve seen him and his fastball was sitting at 84 MPH. The Midwest League is a pitcher’s league and I can’t see him being successful higher than A ball.
I voted for Stavinoha. I asked about him when we finished the top 10, thinking he needed consideration. When I got no response I just assumed he had lost his rookie status. I saw about a half dozen Memphis games last year and he was a much better hitter than Freese or Greene and showed a good arm in the outfield. I know he didn’t do much when he was called up but it was hardly a fair trial. I was voting for Robinson and I also feel Herron should be higher in this poll.
I have voted for de la Cruz. My rationale is as follows:
Although I have not seen him, the available information suggests he could become an above average major league regular. I am assuming that Luhnow is not out on a limb by himself but he is relying heavily on input from scouts. A high ranking for a young prospect does not diminish the skills of the players he passes.
Often, I drop a player in my personal rankings because someone has passed him, not because he is a lesser prospect. Since 2005, the Cardinals have added top-flight prospects every year and most of them are still eligible for the prospect lists. That makes it tough for the average prospect to hold on to his position, even if he is making progress.
If a prospect stands still or advances slowly (Parisi, Herron, Stavinoha), he will be passed by a younger (newer?) prospect who advances quickly (Wallace, Todd, Perez). Daryl Jones is a player I never gave up on, but he went nowhere until 2008. Shane Robinson is similar, although he doesn’t have the upside of Jones. A propspect who ranked in the 20s four years ago and who made slow but steady progress could easily be passed by the likes of Nico Vasquez.
I think Adam Ottavino is still a good prospect, but last year set him back. He could easily rebound to become a major league pitcher before he regains his former standing in the prospect lists. After all, our personal prospect lists are for our own information and voting in this forum is just for entertainment purposes as we wait for Spring Training.