St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30 returns with voting on No. 19
TOWER GROVE — Now where were we before being so completely interrupted by Las Vegas, the winter meetings, and enough blogging to leave this trusty, rusty laptop spewing consonants?
Oh, right, closing the polls on No. 18.
The St. Louis Cardinals tipped their hands with the club’s second pick of the most recent draft. Showing how much they value durability and predictability over, say, moonshots with talent or high-ceiling gambles, the Cardinals selected Ole Miss pitcher Lance Lynn. There’s a lot to like about Lynn. And all of it seems to come straight out of the Cardinals Draft Profile. In many ways, it’s like the Cardinals are typecasting pitchers. Look at some of the traits the Cardinals tend to favor:
- College pitcher.
- Durable history.
- Mechanics that pass the in-house, patent pending, test. (Check out this independent dissection of Lynn’s mechanics over ChrisOLeary.com.)
- Preferably a sinking fastball.
- Durable history.
- Did I mentioned that already?
- Sorry
- Success in a competitive conference (i.e., the SEC)
- Success that can be re-computed to predict success in a rookie-level league
- And, ideally, a second pitch to complement that sinking fastball.
Lynn is basically the prototype, the personification of so many things we’ve seen the Cardinals look for in their draft picks these past three, four years. He is their Pitcher Zero. And he is your Prospect No. 18. With 28 percent of the nearly 400 votes in last week’s Comm Top 30 poll, Lynn edged P.J. Walters, who received 25 percent of the vote.

No. 18 Prospect RHP Lance Lynn, at Ole Miss (Source: SI.com)
Lynn, while not quite the track record of Walters as a pro pitcher, is nonetheless deserving. The righthander from Ole Miss has a plus fastball when it comes to movement, an excellent slider and a good-enough changeup. At 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, he’s big and projects well. He slipped to the second round only because scouts/stats/whatnot view him mostly as a workhorse, an innings-eater. Count me among the people who believe that is a valuable skill, an asset all teams need. Lynn went 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA (because, yes, ERA does matter) and 29 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. His season ended abruptly because of forearm discomfort, though he’s expected to be fine and ready for spring training.
When it comes to how quickly he could move: Think, Clayton Mortensen.
Lynn was built to advance.
The Cardinals look for that, too.
With Lynn on the list and Walters a favorite to claim the next spot on the list — though nothing is guaranteed — we move on to No. 19 after a week’s hiatus for other news. Not new to the list this time around is Luis Perdomo, who San Francisco plucked in the Rule 5 draft. Instead, I followed the write-ins and the emails and added LHP Nick Additon and RHP Fernando Salas. That did cost Francisco Samuel a spot on the poll — and that comes with a certain irony. One of the names other teams asked for most as the Cardinals explored trades out there in Las Vegas was the High-A righthanded closer with the high-velocity cheese … Samuel.
Additon and Salas have strong candidacies as well. Additon is a finesse lefty and was a finalist for the organization’s internal pitching of the year award. He had a 31 2/3-inning scoreless streak this season and had more strikeouts (121) than hits allowed (103). Salas has fantastic command of his fastball and he complements that with enough movement to riddle hitters. He struck out 100 batters against just 16 walks. The Cardinals lured him from the Mexican League to the minors.
Enough introductions. Time to vote:
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Because it has been a while since we last ran a poll for the Comm Top 30, here is the list so far:
- Colby Rasmus, OF
- Brett Wallace, 3B
- Chris Perez, RHP
- Bryan Anderson, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Jason Motte, RHP
- Daryl Jones, OF
- Jess Todd, RHP
- Mitchell Boggs, RHP
- Jaime Garcia, LHP
- Niko Vasquez, SS
- Clayton Mortensen, RHP
- Pete Kozma, SS
- Allen Craig, INF
- Jon Jay, OF
- Adam Reifer, RHP
- Tyler Greene, INF
- Lance Lynn, RHP
- TODAY
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MiLB.com finished its Top 30, and Cardinals’ outfielder Colby Rasmus ranked 10th. Follow this link for Jonathan Mayo’s breakdown of Rasmus and a clip of the prospect in action. One look at that page and it’s easy to see how Rasmus is the unifying player — briding the performance that the stats ilk values and the athleticism that is over-simplified as what scouts look for in a player. … MiLB.com also ran a fan poll, and it was as even higher on Rasmus than the Cardinals’ brass seemed to be in their comments at the winter meetings.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
With that big write up, Lynn’s not a choice?
My bad…must read all text….
I decided to vote for Ottavino over Walters. He did have a bad year but prior to that he was considered one of our top pitching talents. Based on what I’ve read in various sources, there was no real drop-off in his stuff.
He just seems to have developed a wrong-headed approach to pitching. This should be correctable. If he does this he will probably rebound to a top prospect again. Obviously if he continues on this trend next year then you have to change him from a prospect to a suspect.
Walters by all accounts has only average to marginal stuff and his success has been dependent on his great control. This seems to have abandoned him last year or else the hitters have figured him out. I am less certain that this can be corrected.
In looking who to add, I’d bring back Samuel and add Castillo, replacing whoever wins this time and either Robinson or de la Cruz.
I went Herron again. Then will probably go Walters - Additon - Robinson. But that’s next time.
I will write in Shaun Garceau
I again voted for Walters. I agree with an earlier commenter, however. There are plenty of legitimate concerns regarding Walters.
Apparently he throws a great changeup, but the real question, and the thing that has people really questioning him is his FB. From what I’ve heard his fastball reaches anywhere from 84-87 MPH…that needs to improve, I would think. Apparently he is a smart pitcher, and if he can improve his FB a bit, then maybe he has a chance to be a fairly solid pitcher. Just my thoughts…
I’m still pretty excited about Ottavino, despite his down season. I believe he had some mechanical issues that really effected his performance. Great work, DG…
SHAUN GARCEAU…PLEASE…
I voted for de la cruz er Pina (whatever). Robinson’s upside is a 4th outfielder. Walter’s upside is a back of the rotation starter. Pina is young and has a lot of upside at least.
cmon guys, i am a friend of walters & i played college ball with him his soph & jr year. i moved to memphis a yr ago & i was at every memphis home game.i cant speak for the young guys below AA but from AA up there are only 2 starters that throw harder than pj, thats ottavino & boggs.i have seen all the others several times & they all had there nights where they threw a little harder but for the most part they were all 87-91.its the other things that dont get seen that sets pj apart.i saw him take a shot off his pitching elbow last yr & he wouldnt come out of the game, he finished the inning & wore long sleeves for a week to cover up the golf ball on his elbow so he wouldnt miss a start. his jr yr of college he literally took us to a regional he of course was our friday guy but he would go on short rest & pitch midweek because we needed every win to make a regional he went 10 innings 2 times during the season & his 11 inn complete game win against shane robinson & florida state was incredible.he did that on a tues after throwing 140 pitches on friday night..thats things that dont show up in the box score..he changed a couple of things last year & it hurt his control,believe me he will fix that he has never walked as many as he did last year.he is always tweaking things to try & get better..he is going to be alot more than a 5th starter…yes i am partial to him but i got to play at ole miss in a regional in front of 10000 fans because of him & then he shoved it aganst mark hamilton & tulane..it was awesome…