St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30: Vote for No. 14
TOWER GROVE — Back from a break for Turkey, the St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30 picks up where it left off — with a pinch of controversy.
I received a few emails suggesting the voting for No. 13 was swayed by what I wrote leading into the poll. While that’s probably true, I’m at a loss as to how to stop it from happening. I would imagine many of the people voting are being swayed by some form of media, be it the articles written in Baseball America (some by me), in The Post-Dispatch (some by me), or over at Future Redbirds (none by me). There are also the comments that come from fans who have seen these players in person, and yes that too pushes the poll.
Influence is everywhere.
I tend to believe that’s a good thing. Makes for a more informed Top 30.
New to the poll, RHP Tyler Herron. (Source: Scout.com)
The Bird Land Community’s pick for the No. 13 prospect in the Cardinals’ system was shortstop Pete Kozma, whose unexpected slip out of the top 10 was the topic of that day’s introduction. Kozma received 32 percent of nearly 1,100 votes, an excellent and appreciated total of participants. But know that there is always room for debate and discussion. Don’t be handcuffed by the poll or the intro. I use each poll to help shape the next one. For example: big-arm prospect Adam Reifer was mentioned in several top-10 polls but has slid off because of lack of support. I could see legitimate lists that include him as a top-12 prospect … wait, there I go again. Think of each poll as the primaries for the next one.
The addition to today’s poll is youngster Tyler Herron. A righthanded pitcher the Cardinals plucked out of the cradle of pitching, Florida’s Wellington High School, Herron reached the Class-AA rotation this past season. He had a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings with Palm Beach before the promotion, and he finished 5-5, 5.53 ERA in 81 1/3 innings at Springfield. He was the No. 10 prospect in the system last year according to the Baseball America rankings. Not that I’m saying anything about where he belongs this year.
Before a little clip of top-10 prospect Jess Todd warming up in the bullpen, here’s the poll for No. 14. No intro. No lobbying. No suggestions. Just your votes.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I went with Craig. You’ll will probably find a lot of people will have him rated higher than Freese. I think the two are pretty close, I think this poll has rated Freese too high and Craig too low. I think Freese’s gaudy numbers are somewhat canceled out by his age.
I voted for Ottavino. He really has not been that productive I just can’t give up on him yet. If we are building through the draft we better start making our first round picks count.
DG, after reading your post and some of the comments regarding Kozma in your last “Community Top 30″ post, I feel a lot better about Peter Kozma. Looks to be a solid player. One of those guys who does a lot of things well, is nothing flashy, but will hopefully provide consistency at the position. In other words, I’m glad you did “influence” the vote, I’m a lot more comfortable with the prospect of Pete Kozma at SS in the future for the Cards.
Tyler Greene is running out of time. He is 25 years old, and most likely a long shot to make the team coming out of spring training. From what I’ve heard he has some big issues with his swing and its mechanics, and at this point in his career I think everyone was expecting some major steps for Greene. He is just simply running out of time. I don’t see a future on this team for Greene.
My vote went to Craig. He, like Kozma, probably should have been rated higher on this list.
One more thing…
DG, what happened to Ottavino? He went from 12-8 at Palm Beach to 3-7 at Springfield. Maybe a nagging injury of some sorts? Something mechanical? Thoughts?
Completely mechanical. Ottavino developed some bad habits and delivery kinks during and after spring training. He went to the Arizona Fall League to try and correct them. All that from a guy who was advertised as having flawless mechanics when they drafted him.
Adam Reifer. He has a fb slider combo that scouts think could both be 70 pitches on an 80 scale. I put him ahead of Samuel because Reifer has shown better command of his stuff. I could see the argument for Herron or Craig, but Jay has limited upside and if he cannot play CF, would be a bit of a tweener. Greene still does not make consistent enough contact, Walters has limited upside, and until Ottavino’s command improves, a move to the bullpen might be in store for him.
Adam Reifer… for his “upside”. (Hope this isn’t like a vote for Nader!)
Adam Reifer. Uber competitor. Great fastball. Great slider. Has the definition of a closer’s mentality.
Todd’s delivery reminds me of Joe Blanton. I would be very happy if he could duplicate the early part of Blanton’s career. Also, Craig is seriously underrated at this spot. He is every bit as good if not better than David Freese. IMO Freese is too highly rated and Craig too low.
I put Craig here (or higher) if he can play 2b. If so, he could be a valuable player for the Cardinals soon. If he’s a 3b only, then I would rate him lower than here…he is tradebait.
With 206 votes in, there is a dead heat — Jon Jay and Allen Craig both have 64 votes.
Walters gets my vote. I went with production over drafting position.
I’m a slight bit lost on everyone being down on Freese. It seems most complaints are that he’s too old, or that they wonder why he was only at AA coming into last season.
He’s only had 3 years now, with 06′ be abbreviated due to the whole college thing, and he could certainly be a starter somewhere in the majors right now if he wasn’t here. I imagine he could be a bit below average if he were in the Bigs right now, but that’s because of him only having 3 - not full - years of Professional baseball experience.
Don’t be down on the guy because he went to college. It’s not whether he’s going to give us 20 years of service or not, it’s based on talent and what he could provide if called upon.
Right now he’s a solid option to have to look at, if need be. Though I do agree that Craig has dropped too far down, I’d put him directly behind Freese.
JonnyG - Freese is overrated partly because of his age but more importantly because of his poor plate discipline. Let’s go to the numbers…
David Freese - 2008 - AAA
.306/.361/.550 avg/obp/slg
The problem is that Freese only drew 39 walks against 111 strikeouts. That means that he strikes out 21.8% of the time and only walks about 7.6%. Furthermore, Freese’s Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was an unsustainable .355. The average range for BABIP is between .290-.310.
For comparison here are Allen Craig’s numbers…
Allen Craig - 2008 - AA
.304/.374/.494
While Craig failed to slug like Freese and was therefore less productive, his OBP is much less batting average driven, showing greater plate discipline. Plate discipline is a skill that translates well from level to level and into the major leagues (i.e. a strike is a strike and a ball is a ball no matter where it is thrown). Craig struck out about 15% of the time and walked about 8.5%. Furthermore, his BABIP of .332 is much closer to a sustainable figure than Freese’s number.
All in all, I think that Freese and Craig are very comparable players. I like Craig’s plate discipline more than Freese’s and therefore I think that he is the slightly superior hitter GOING FORWARD. Freese had the superior year last year but Craig has actually been more consistent over his time in the minors. I guess my point is that if this community is going to rate Freese as the #5 prospect (too high IMO) then Craig is right there as well. I think the voting has been skewed by the fact that Freese is from STL and because he was traded for Jim Edmonds. Also, I think people are putting way too much emphasis on the fact that he was in AAA as opposed to AA. In reality most teams have their best prospects at the AA level.
Forgot to include the links to stats:
Freese: http://firstinning.com/players/David-Freese-a
Craig: http://firstinning.com/players/Allen-Craig-a
going solely off the numbers you provided, I don’t see such a drastic difference. You call Freese’s BABIP unsustainable and then give the typical range, but then provide Craig’s BABIP which is above the typical range by a good amount as well. Though it is closer to the norm, it should still be considered as quite unsustainable. Much on the par of Freese’s.
Also Craig’s 8.5% walk rate compared to Freese’s 7% walk rate isn’t really that big of a difference, certainly not enough to crown him with better plate discipline. Nowadays many people have learned to look beyond one’s strikeouts…..I mean by all means look at R. Howard and his K rate, extreme comparison I know, but still.
Regardless, much like you said they are very comparable players. Though I feel that Freese is rated properly, but I agree with you that Craig certainly is not. As I stated earlier I feel Craig should be directly behind Freese in the rankings. I feel that Freese’s defense is what puts him ahead of Craig.
To me the offense is nearly a wash, as both are acceptable in that aspect.
Although most all of this is pretty MOOT, because Wallace is leap frogging both of them in this organization. Craig however might be able to move over to second or something else, whereas I don’t see Freese playing anywhere but third.