TOWER GROVE — Earlier this week, St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan did the radio rounds and spoke about the closer role, closer candidates, the rotation and how so much hinges on the shoulder of Chris Carpenter. He also had a telling comment about his retooled bullpen. Asked in an interview on 101 ESPN if he was confident with the new-look left side of his bullpen, Duncan answered plainly, realistically.

He said he does not “really know yet.”

Expecting the market for lefthanded relievers to move swifter than any other area of free agency, the Cardinals sprinted to make offers the moment free agency opened. They had a two-year, $4-million offer tabled to Trever Miller within a week of free agency’s opening gun, and they also made a one-year offer to lefty Arthur Rhodes. (I heard later that Rhodes was so interested in the Cardinals’ offer that he began looking at various places he could live in the area.) Miller, after some physical concerns (tear in his labrum), eventually signed and Rhodes went to Cincinnati when the Cardinals’ interest ebbed after adding Miller.

LHP Royce Ring, shown here with San Diego, was the fourth lefty signed by the Cardinals this offseason. (Source: Getty Images)

Addressing and improving the left side of the bullpen was a critical goal this offseason, general manager John Mozeliak insisted in the aftermath of 2008. With three new lefties on the 40-man roster and a fourth getting a major-league invite to spring training, it’s fair to ask: Did they improve?

The lefty relievers currently on the 40-man roster are:

• Trever Miller
• Royce Ring
• Charlie Manning

Also coming to spring training will be Ian Ostlund, an intriguing lefty who spent 2008 with Detroit’s Triple-A team. The market for lefties didn’t move as rapidly as projected, with Jeremy Affeldt scoring a two-year, $8-million contract with San Francisco and then … Well, Will Ohman, arguably the best of the group, is still unsigned. Brian Shouse is still out there. Joe Beimel, too. But the Cardinals took Ring off the market recently, claimed Manning off waivers and now view their need as filled. Miller is clearly the lefty specialist they desired. With the others, the Cardinals cannot be sure of their roles or their expected contributions, as Duncan said, “yet.”

The Cardinals used inherited runners as one guide — and Miller was the best free-agent reliever available at leaving runners stranded — and they also had a specific asset they wanted to add to the bullpen. Duncan wanted a pitcher who could come in and “shut down” a team’s best lefthanded hitter. (Two entries earlier this offseason explored that LOOGY subject overall, with the Howard/Dunn index, and also specifically with Miller.)

Numbers, drawn from the majors in 2008, help show how successful they were as LOOGYs*:

NEW CARDINALS

PITCHER … BA/SLG for LHB … K-BB/AB for LHB … WPA**

Manning … .203/.392 … 23 K-9 BB, 79 AB … minus-0.29

Miller … .209/.308 … 30 K-10 BB, 91 AB … +0.68

Ring … .264/.396 … 13 K-5 BB, 53 AB … +0.30

FORMER CARDINALS

PITCHER … BA/SLG for LHB … K-BB/AB for LHB … WPA**

Randy Flores … .314/.549 … 9 K-11 BB, 51 AB … minus-0.83

Ron Villone … .176/.318 … 27 K-16 BB, 85 AB … +0.30

(STILL) FREE AGENTS

PITCHER … BA/SLG for LHB … K-BB/AB for LHB … WPA**

Beimel … .278/.311 … 17 K-5 BB, 90 … +0.88

Ohman … .200/.314 … 28 K-8 BB, 105 … +0.80

Shouse … .180/.290 … 28 K-2 BB, 100 … +0.10

* LOOGY — Lefthanded One-Out GuY.

** WPA — Sort of a New Deal of statistics (rimshot). It charts how much a player impacts his team’s winning probability. The stat is from FanGraphs, an increasingly valuable site. The acronym is for Win Probability Added, and the number above is the sum of the player’s entire 2008 season. For comparison, Albert Pujols had a WPA of +6.39 in the 2008 season and Kyle McClellan who led the NL in holds had a minus-0.08 WPA. Russ Springer +0.66; Carlos Marmol, who tied with McClellan for that hold lead, +3.77 WPA. Jason Isringhausen was a +2.71 in 2007 and a minus-2.97 in 2008.

***

These numbers show more about Ring and his role than the awful 8.46 ERA he carried out of last season, and they also highlight how effective Miller has been as a lefty specialist. The numbers for Shouse are also impressive (two walks!). The statistics underscore how disappointing a season it was for Randy Flores in a role the Cardinals needed him to take because of Tyler Johnson’s absence. They also reveal how well Ron Villone did when used in the role he’s apparently better suited to handle. Reader Brett Robinson, who admitted to pitching in the Cubs’ minor-league system, sent me a detailed look at how all the free-agent lefties have done in specialist roles and Illinois native Shouse ranked No. 1 — “ahead of Brian Fuentes,” he wrote — and Villone ranked well, until those pesky walks were considered.

With Miller alone the Cardinals have upgraded their ability to handle the lefthanded sluggers in the division. But, as one member of the Cardinals’ brass said recently, sometimes those guys come up twice with the game in doubt.

Using Johnson as the example, Duncan described a year ago how a lefty specialist needs to have that sinister pitcher — that certain swing-and-miss pitch — as a weapon against lefthanded hitters. Flores had more of a contact approach. Villone’s slider was his effective pitch against lefties. He threw 461 pitches to lefthanded hitters this past season, and 39 percent of them were sliders. That same kind of detail reveals how the new lefties attack lefthanded hitters.

The breakdown of type of pitches thrown is from Bill James Online, and keep in mind that both Ring and Manning had about as many appearances against righthanded batters as lefties:

TREVER MILLER — 3-0, 4.15 ERA, 44 K in 43 1/3 ip, 20 BB, 2 HR

Threw 416 pitches … 424 fastballs (59%), 199 sliders (28%)

To lefties … 76 outs from 106 PA … 231 fastballs (57%), 164 sliders (40%)

**

ROYCE RING — 2-1, 8.46 ERA, 16 K in 22 1/3 ip, 10 BB, 2 HR

Threw 403 pitches … 228 fastballs (57%), 138 curves (34%)

To lefties … 41 outs from 61 PA … 131 fastballs (59%), 89 curves (40%)

**

CHARLIE MANNING – 1-3, 5.14 ERA, 37 K in 42 ip, 31 BB, 8 HR

Threw 781 pitches … 381 fastballs (49%), 272 sliders (35%), 103 cutters (13%)

To lefties … 67 outs from 89 PA … 118 fastballs (33%), 186 sliders (52%), 50 cutters (14%)

Both Manning and Ring have the look of a lefty who could perform in a more specified role. Ring has struggled with his command and pitched himself into problems by falling behind in the count. Manning has a variety of ways to attack hitters, but clearly relies on his breaking ball against lefthanders. With each there is something there to work with, but there is also … well, work.

LHP Ian Ostlund, a minor-league signing, did not allow a home run last season in 108 plate appearances against lefthanded hitters in Triple-A. (Source: Wikipedia)

The Cardinals entered the offseason offering a two-year, $4 million contract to Miller, and because of a tear found in Miller’s shoulder they have less than $1.3 million guaranteed to three lefties right now. Miller signed an incentive-laden deal with a base of $500,000 and Ring signed a deal worth $475,000. The Cardinals appear to banking on Miller’s health and that he’ll reach the $2 million ceiling his one-year deal could be worth. Considering Rhodes signed a two-year, $4-million with Cincinnati and we’ve yet to see what Ohman will go for, the Cardinals may have found a bargain in the lefty bin. But two? Three? That’s not clear yet.

What is: An extended absence from Miller could put the Cardinals’ bullpen back where it was in 2008, if not in a worse situation. They are leveraged against his health, which they were the first to question. The known quality of their depth is a concern.

Speaking of depth: Enter Ostlund. The minor-league signing brings some interesting numbers into an open competition this spring.

The Cardinals not only lacked lefties at the major-league level, there is also a scarcity of them in the minors as well. The club sent a handful of lefties to the Arizona Fall League to give them a chance to show where in the depth they belong, and not one really shined. In the Community Top 30 put together by Bird Land readers, there were only two LHP in the top 29 spots, and both — Jaime Garcia and Nick Additon – are starters. Two lefty relievers are coming up the system, but neither Justin Fiske or Sam Freeman have thrown a pitch at a level higher than Double-A. Freeman could move fast, but he has just 19 games pro. There is a need for depth, and Ostlund offers that for sure, and he’ll get a shot at showing if he offers more.

Ostlund — who, granted, just turned 30 — had a compelling line in Triple-A. He went 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 69 2/3 innings with Toledo. He allowed six home runs. Dig deeper into the numbers, however, and here’s how he did against lefthanded hitters at the Triple-A level:

.263 BA against … 32 K … 9 BB … 108 Batters Faced … And, ZERO home runs.

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