Did the Cardinals improve their lefty relief?
TOWER GROVE — Earlier this week, St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan did the radio rounds and spoke about the closer role, closer candidates, the rotation and how so much hinges on the shoulder of Chris Carpenter. He also had a telling comment about his retooled bullpen. Asked in an interview on 101 ESPN if he was confident with the new-look left side of his bullpen, Duncan answered plainly, realistically.
He said he does not “really know yet.”
Expecting the market for lefthanded relievers to move swifter than any other area of free agency, the Cardinals sprinted to make offers the moment free agency opened. They had a two-year, $4-million offer tabled to Trever Miller within a week of free agency’s opening gun, and they also made a one-year offer to lefty Arthur Rhodes. (I heard later that Rhodes was so interested in the Cardinals’ offer that he began looking at various places he could live in the area.) Miller, after some physical concerns (tear in his labrum), eventually signed and Rhodes went to Cincinnati when the Cardinals’ interest ebbed after adding Miller.
LHP Royce Ring, shown here with San Diego, was the fourth lefty signed by the Cardinals this offseason. (Source: Getty Images)
Addressing and improving the left side of the bullpen was a critical goal this offseason, general manager John Mozeliak insisted in the aftermath of 2008. With three new lefties on the 40-man roster and a fourth getting a major-league invite to spring training, it’s fair to ask: Did they improve?
The lefty relievers currently on the 40-man roster are:
- Trever Miller
- Royce Ring
- Charlie Manning
Also coming to spring training will be Ian Ostlund, an intriguing lefty who spent 2008 with Detroit’s Triple-A team. The market for lefties didn’t move as rapidly as projected, with Jeremy Affeldt scoring a two-year, $8-million contract with San Francisco and then … Well, Will Ohman, arguably the best of the group, is still unsigned. Brian Shouse is still out there. Joe Beimel, too. But the Cardinals took Ring off the market recently, claimed Manning off waivers and now view their need as filled. Miller is clearly the lefty specialist they desired. With the others, the Cardinals cannot be sure of their roles or their expected contributions, as Duncan said, “yet.”
The Cardinals used inherited runners as one guide — and Miller was the best free-agent reliever available at leaving runners stranded — and they also had a specific asset they wanted to add to the bullpen. Duncan wanted a pitcher who could come in and “shut down” a team’s best lefthanded hitter. (Two entries earlier this offseason explored that LOOGY subject overall, with the Howard/Dunn index, and also specifically with Miller.)
Numbers, drawn from the majors in 2008, help show how successful they were as LOOGYs*:
NEW CARDINALS
PITCHER … BA/SLG for LHB … K-BB/AB for LHB … WPA**
Manning … .203/.392 … 23 K-9 BB, 79 AB … minus-0.29
Miller … .209/.308 … 30 K-10 BB, 91 AB … +0.68
Ring … .264/.396 … 13 K-5 BB, 53 AB … +0.30
FORMER CARDINALS
PITCHER … BA/SLG for LHB … K-BB/AB for LHB … WPA**
Randy Flores … .314/.549 … 9 K-11 BB, 51 AB … minus-0.83
Ron Villone … .176/.318 … 27 K-16 BB, 85 AB … +0.30
(STILL) FREE AGENTS
PITCHER … BA/SLG for LHB … K-BB/AB for LHB … WPA**
Beimel … .278/.311 … 17 K-5 BB, 90 … +0.88
Ohman … .200/.314 … 28 K-8 BB, 105 … +0.80
Shouse … .180/.290 … 28 K-2 BB, 100 … +0.10
* LOOGY — Lefthanded One-Out GuY.
** WPA — Sort of a New Deal of statistics (rimshot). It charts how much a player impacts his team’s winning probability. The stat is from FanGraphs, an increasingly valuable site. The acronym is for Win Probability Added, and the number above is the sum of the player’s entire 2008 season. For comparison, Albert Pujols had a WPA of +6.39 in the 2008 season and Kyle McClellan who led the NL in holds had a minus-0.08 WPA. Russ Springer +0.66; Carlos Marmol, who tied with McClellan for that hold lead, +3.77 WPA. Jason Isringhausen was a +2.71 in 2007 and a minus-2.97 in 2008.
***
These numbers show more about Ring and his role than the awful 8.46 ERA he carried out of last season, and they also highlight how effective Miller has been as a lefty specialist. The numbers for Shouse are also impressive (two walks!). The statistics underscore how disappointing a season it was for Randy Flores in a role the Cardinals needed him to take because of Tyler Johnson’s absence. They also reveal how well Ron Villone did when used in the role he’s apparently better suited to handle. Reader Brett Robinson, who admitted to pitching in the Cubs’ minor-league system, sent me a detailed look at how all the free-agent lefties have done in specialist roles and Illinois native Shouse ranked No. 1 — “ahead of Brian Fuentes,” he wrote — and Villone ranked well, until those pesky walks were considered.
With Miller alone the Cardinals have upgraded their ability to handle the lefthanded sluggers in the division. But, as one member of the Cardinals’ brass said recently, sometimes those guys come up twice with the game in doubt.
Using Johnson as the example, Duncan described a year ago how a lefty specialist needs to have that sinister pitcher — that certain swing-and-miss pitch — as a weapon against lefthanded hitters. Flores had more of a contact approach. Villone’s slider was his effective pitch against lefties. He threw 461 pitches to lefthanded hitters this past season, and 39 percent of them were sliders. That same kind of detail reveals how the new lefties attack lefthanded hitters.
The breakdown of type of pitches thrown is from Bill James Online, and keep in mind that both Ring and Manning had about as many appearances against righthanded batters as lefties:
TREVER MILLER — 3-0, 4.15 ERA, 44 K in 43 1/3 ip, 20 BB, 2 HR
Threw 416 pitches … 424 fastballs (59%), 199 sliders (28%)
To lefties … 76 outs from 106 PA … 231 fastballs (57%), 164 sliders (40%)
**
ROYCE RING — 2-1, 8.46 ERA, 16 K in 22 1/3 ip, 10 BB, 2 HR
Threw 403 pitches … 228 fastballs (57%), 138 curves (34%)
To lefties … 41 outs from 61 PA … 131 fastballs (59%), 89 curves (40%)
**
CHARLIE MANNING – 1-3, 5.14 ERA, 37 K in 42 ip, 31 BB, 8 HR
Threw 781 pitches … 381 fastballs (49%), 272 sliders (35%), 103 cutters (13%)
To lefties … 67 outs from 89 PA … 118 fastballs (33%), 186 sliders (52%), 50 cutters (14%)
Both Manning and Ring have the look of a lefty who could perform in a more specified role. Ring has struggled with his command and pitched himself into problems by falling behind in the count. Manning has a variety of ways to attack hitters, but clearly relies on his breaking ball against lefthanders. With each there is something there to work with, but there is also … well, work.
LHP Ian Ostlund, a minor-league signing, did not allow a home run last season in 108 plate appearances against lefthanded hitters in Triple-A. (Source: Wikipedia)
The Cardinals entered the offseason offering a two-year, $4 million contract to Miller, and because of a tear found in Miller’s shoulder they have less than $1.3 million guaranteed to three lefties right now. Miller signed an incentive-laden deal with a base of $500,000 and Ring signed a deal worth $475,000. The Cardinals appear to banking on Miller’s health and that he’ll reach the $2 million ceiling his one-year deal could be worth. Considering Rhodes signed a two-year, $4-million with Cincinnati and we’ve yet to see what Ohman will go for, the Cardinals may have found a bargain in the lefty bin. But two? Three? That’s not clear yet.
What is: An extended absence from Miller could put the Cardinals’ bullpen back where it was in 2008, if not in a worse situation. They are leveraged against his health, which they were the first to question. The known quality of their depth is a concern.
Speaking of depth: Enter Ostlund. The minor-league signing brings some interesting numbers into an open competition this spring.
The Cardinals not only lacked lefties at the major-league level, there is also a scarcity of them in the minors as well. The club sent a handful of lefties to the Arizona Fall League to give them a chance to show where in the depth they belong, and not one really shined. In the Community Top 30 put together by Bird Land readers, there were only two LHP in the top 29 spots, and both — Jaime Garcia and Nick Additon – are starters. Two lefty relievers are coming up the system, but neither Justin Fiske or Sam Freeman have thrown a pitch at a level higher than Double-A. Freeman could move fast, but he has just 19 games pro. There is a need for depth, and Ostlund offers that for sure, and he’ll get a shot at showing if he offers more.
Ostlund — who, granted, just turned 30 — had a compelling line in Triple-A. He went 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 69 2/3 innings with Toledo. He allowed six home runs. Dig deeper into the numbers, however, and here’s how he did against lefthanded hitters at the Triple-A level:
.263 BA against … 32 K … 9 BB … 108 Batters Faced … And, ZERO home runs.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Did the Cardinals improve their lefty relief? In a word–no. Amazing how Mo has steered clear of any player with even a whiff of injury, but he’s going to rely on a player who has been diagnosed with a torn labrum to provide the badly needed upgrade to the left side of the BP. It’s inconsistencies like this that are driving fans crazy!
Ron Villone. Most comments now and during the year said he performed well when limited to LOOGY appearances. He got exposed when he was put in for longer stretches. He never appeared to complain. Yet there is NO mention of him anywhere. What happened to him?
how do you know it’s not improved LPD?
Great info and research, DG.
Miller at the moment looks to be a good signing. Strong statistics against LH batters over the course of his career. Lefties have hit only .235 off of him in his career, and hit just .209 off of him in 2008. I like the signing.
By looking at Charlie Manning’s stats in 42 major league innings you can’t tell a lot. I don’t like judging a guys ability with just 42 innings in the major leagues under his belt. He did very well for Triple-A Columbus last season, he struckout 34 in 27 innings. I’m just looking at the stats, but it would appear to me he has some control issues. At every level he has had a very high amount of walks. This might be something to keep an eye on, it would appear to be a major weakness.
Miller will help. However, the rest of the options are unproven. To me letting Arthur Rhodes go after it appeared they had him was a big mistake. Miller and Rhodes from the left side of the bullpen would have been solid. In general, there are still to many question marks with Cardinal LOOGYs.
Good point about Villone. I think a lot of his poor performance this past year can be attributed to TLR’s poor management of him, he was certainly put into a role where he could not contribute to the team.
Signing Ohman or Beimel or Shouse or Dennys Reyes or Eddie Guardado now would seal the deal and end the conversation. With Ohman and Beimel you get some ability to get right handers out also. Not so much with the others.
I’d love to see the Cardinals ink Ohman or Beimel. But heck, just bringing back Ron Villone is probably enough IF Miller is healthy. By the time you can figure out whether Miller is going to make it, Ohman and Biemel will be gone. If either are there for a couple of million, sign them. Then get Saito and Kawakami and call it an off season.
The lefty situation in the pen only works out if Trever Miller can be more than a lefty specialist. Manning should edge out Ring for the other lefty spot in the pen, but these two are only able to matchup against one lefty hitter, that means another arm has to come out of the pen to relieve them and that will wear on the pen like it has in recent years.
Ok i like the idea of getting trever miller but idk what manning and ring is going to bring to our team its going to be an izzy all over again with a lefty.
Typical Duncan Larussa smug answer, I dont know if these guys can pitch. I work in a business as an average joe and I dont know doesnt cut it where I have to perform. Well they signed 3 guys hopefully someone saw them pitch. Again until we get some leadership with some tiger in the tank the old status quo is what we are going to get. Winning it all in 2006 with a makeshift bunch has created a monster in this town. Best baseball town in America in our dreams folks!
I just know the Cards have a surprise planned when it comes to personnel, especially pitching.
I wonder who it will be? I know this ownership is committed to winning and that we will finish
higher than 4th this year. And come on, Mozeliak has got to have something special in the works,
right? He is being paid, don’t you think?
Mike,
The fact that the question even has to be asked seems an answer of sorts in itself. I’m very concerned about that torn labrum that Miller is sporting, especially given the fact that he seems to be the best bet of the 3 that were signed (and the Cardinals bad luck in that particular area). It’s just my opinion, but to me it doesn’t seem like an improvement to trade a healthy arm for an injured arm. Though Miller evidently didn’t have problems with the arm last year, there’s no guarantee that will continue. When Villone was used strictly as a lefty specialist, his numbers weren’t all that different from Miller’s (thus not an upgrade) and the others are such big question marks that I can’t conclude they are an improvement yet. Imo, the left side of the bullpen seems just as scary and uncertain as it was last year. I’d be glad to be wrong about that.
It’s very disappointing to see how other teams are picking up players for the oncoming season day after day, whether they be A, B, C, or D types,….while the Cards brass just TALKS AND TALKS, about how good St. Louis will be in 2009……..VERY DISAPPOINTING…..I’d like to be that proverbial “fly on the wall”, when TLR discusses the upcoming season with Duncan
cc, burnett, fuentes, k-rod, wood, saito, smoltz, penny, redding, kawakami, affeldt, howry, and no doubt others. In the last few days free agents are moving fast. I keep hearing that we are still ok because others in our division haven’t really improved much. But that thinking limits us to having to beat the cubs to get into the playoffs. We play against the entire league for the wild card, and the mets, phillies, giants, cubs, dodgers, dbacks, reds, nationals and maybe pirates have all made moves since the cards have done anything. There is waiting and there is also falling behind. There are still free agent pitchers out there but by all indications several are out of our price range, i.e. lowe, perez, sheets, and possibly several others. This leaves garland, wolf, looper, and various other number fives and the walking wounded. I sure wish I could read mo’s mind. if there is a plan, i can’t see it. hopefully it involves ohman or biemel.
How can you run a meaningful statistical analysis on Ring and Mannning? The bottom line is the Cardinals are on the cheap. These 2 players have 3 career wins amongst them and their combined era’s look like over 6 runs a game. That is close to Mulder territory. Why spin this at all? How can getting players like this help the Cardinals win? It can’t. I spell your LOGGY argument this way- B U L L.
Shouse has always clamped down on Cardinal rallies. I don’t know all his stats, but he should get a good, long look.
The handling of Rhodes, while awaiting word on Miller’s health - still suspect - is troubling, given Rhodes’ intense interest in being with the Cardinals. Why couldn’t management have dropped Miller when his health issues arose and landed Rhodes instead? After all, the Miller signing took a couple weeks.
Will somebody pleeeeze tell me what the status is with Looper..?? Like every other pitcher, he maybe had a “average year”. But aren’t all pitchers allowed that. Especially after he got thrown into the starter role. Check the stats and look up Lowe and Peavey, Loop wasn’t far off.
Being a Redbird fan for ions, I firmly believe that upper management is “Cheep Cheep.. Fun Fun”. Ownership is relying on this years All Star game to roll in the bucks. And soon we’ll all be drinking Dirt Cheep beer disquised as In Bev Busch
Very interesting article. I know there are some pessimistic responses, and obviously we will have to wait and see. But just think back of the countless times Randy Flores came in a key situation, would throw nothing but sliders, and would either walk a guy or give up a key hit.
I don’t like to run down guys because obviously he was doing his best, but he was not productive at all. So I think the lefty situation is better for no other reason that he isn’t on the team.