St. Louis Cardinals Community Top 30: Concluding poll with vote for No. 30
TOWER GROVE — Before we get to the final spot in the Bird Land Community Top 30, we should first discuss the top spots in another ranking of the St. Louis Cardinals’ system. Kevin Goldstein, the accomplished minor-league expert and pundit over at Baseball Prospectus, released his Cardinals Top 11 on Wednesday and said what we’ve been saying all along: “Spots one through four are almost too easy, but it’s a bit messy from there down.”
Like many of us, Goldstein is high on fireball pitcher Adam Reifer (No. 6) and intrigued by infielder Niko Vasquez (No. 11). The poll of readers here placed Vasquez at the same spot, and put Reifer at No. 16. (There is a comprehensive list of the Comm Top 30 below today’s poll.) More telling than the 11 names that made Goldstein’s list is how he sorts them — by his movie review-like scale of 5-star, 4-star and 3-star prospects. The Cardinals, by Goldstein’s estimation, have two 5-star and two 4-star prospects. They are:
- Colby Rasmus *****
- Brett Wallace *****
- Chris Perez ****
- Daryl Jones ****
It’s important to note that when he makes his Cardinals Top 11 he’s obviously comparing Cardinals prospects against Cardinals prospects — we’ve discussed that before — but when assigning the star rankings he’s comparing these prospects against others all across baseball. That offers valuable context. The Atlanta Braves have two five-star prospects — pitcher Tommy Hanson and outfielder Jason Heyward – and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez is considered a four-star prospect. Florida’s Cameron Maybin, often considered a peer of Rasmus’, is also a five-star prospect. The Cubs claim third baseman Josh Vitters as their only five-star prospect, and rising star Jeff Samardzija is on the same level as Perez: four stars.
Milwaukee, by Goldstein’s measure, does not one five-star prospect, but speaking the overall look of a system the Brewers can claim five four-star prospects. One, for example, is shortstop Mat Gamel.
Back by popular demand, cult hero/outfielder/slugger Amaury Cazana Marti rejoins an expanded poll for the final spot in the Top 30.
We move from that top 11 to the last spot in this Comm Top 30 after some confusion about No. 28. After the poll for No. 29 was posted, pitcher Shaun Garceau got an unexpected bump in voting and actually pulled away with the No. 28 poll. Deryk Hooker was comfortably ahead at this time yesterday morning and he was declared the winner at No. 28. By yesterday afternoon an additional 100 votes had been cast at No. 28 and Garceau received a majority of them, pulling ahead to 42 percent of the vote. It’s the first time such a thing happened, and there was a quick resolution.
Garceau won the No. 29 spot in the poll, with 27 percent of the vote AT THIS MOMENT.
Throughout the two months and 20-plus entries for this Comm Top 30, I’ve been a slave to the Rule of 7, a suggestion that polls and lists and such contain seven names. Seems like a good number. For the final spot in the poll, I want to open it up a bit. It’s the last spot, the last chance to vote, so I’m going to expand the list and give each person the chance to vote for THREE options. Really get your thoughts out there. It’s not ideal, but repeated requests for better ways to do this have gone without a response.
This whole thing has been an experiment. It’s better than it was a year ago. It will be better a year from now.
And this much is certain: However No. 30 turns out, the readers can be excited that in my opinion and only a few exceptions this Comm Top 30 is an accurate snapshot of how the Cardinals’ prospects rank.
The final poll:
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A detailed recap of the Bird Land Community Top 30, including the percentage of voting each prospect received, starting all the way back in November when I thought the No. 2 spot was really a tossup:
- Colby Rasmus, OF … First-round bye.
- Brett Wallace, 3B … 55 percent of 1,038 votes.
- Chris Perez, RHP … 47 percent of 737.
- Bryan Anderson, C … 32 percent of 673.
- David Freese, 3B … 20 percent of 675.
- Jason Motte, RHP … 42 percent of 1,017.
- Daryl Jones, OF … 28 percent of 968.
- Jess Todd, RHP … 26 percent of 968.
- Mitchell Boggs, RHP … 37 percent of 869.
- Jaime Garcia, LHP … 23 percent of 791.
- Niko Vasquez, SS … 26 percent of 281.
- Clayton Mortensen, RHP … 45 percent of 351.
- Pete Kozma, SS … 33 percent of 1,116.
- Allen Craig, INF … 35 percent of 340.
- Jon Jay, OF … 31 percent of 340.
- Adam Reifer, RHP … 29 percent of 299.
- Tyler Greene, INF … 40 percent of 294.
- Lance Lynn, RHP … 29 percent of 399.
- P.J. Walters, RHP … 30 percent of 528.
- Adam Ottavino, RHP … 35 percent of 448.
- Fernando Salas, RHP … 56 percent of 185-vote runoff.
- Nick Additon, LHP … 28 percent of 266.
- Shane Robinson, OF … 29 percent of 348.
- Francisco Samuel, RHP … 25 percent of 310.
- Roberto De La Cruz (or Pina), 3B … 34 percent of 234.
- Tyler Herron, RHP … 41 percent of 343.
- Richard Castillo, RHP … 22 percent of 275.
- Deryk Hooker, RHP … 33 percent of 375.
- Shaun Garceau, RHP … 42 percent of 475/27 percent of 230.
- TODAY
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I’ll go with Jon Edwards. As mentioned in the post yesterday, he possesses a rocket arm. I have my concerns regarding him, mainly those concerns lie in his high strikeout rate and lacks of walks that he drew this season. If he can get those issues under control then he has the potential be a top twenty prospect.
The list looks solid. Mitch Boggs ahead of Jaime Garcia, is my biggest issue. I can understand the skepticism when voting for Garcia, given that he is coming of off surgery, but he would be a bit higher on my list. There is a good argument that Daryl Jones should be higher and David Freese lower on the list… I don’t have a big issue there though. I think Kozma should be ranked a little higher, as well.
Towards the bottom part of the list, I believe that Francisco Samuel was voted in too low, same goes for Tyler Herron, in my opinion. The list looks very strong, in my opnion. Just my thoughts.
I’m going to write in Justin Fiske for the heck of it. He has flown through the organization and as a left handed pitcher with a high strike out to walk ratio as he goes along, he might just have a shot.
I voted Edwards, Parejo, and Peterson. I could easily have gone for Gregerson and Gorgon instead of Parejo and Peterson. I guess I like P more than G? Or position players more than gas givers?
Three votes. This is fun. I think I’ll go Edwards and Cruz with the first two. But for #3, I’ll go off the board with a write in …
Donovan Solano is worth a mention as one of the youngest players at AA in 2008.
But instead, lets reach deep into the 2008 draft for Sam Freeman. Lefthanded reliever taken in the 32 round. He pitched great at Johnson City with a 12K/9IP ratio. Finished the season pitching one game at Hi-A Palm Beach. He’ll be 22 in June. Could move fast. He would be only the 2nd LHP on the list.
Correction. Freemen would be the 3rd LH SP on the list. Garcia-Additon-Freemen.
DG: I think you’ve hit on an interesting and quicker way to sort the list. Each round Identify 15 to 20 candidates (or what the heck 50 candidates) and give people multiple votes each round (say 5). You quickly wind up identifying groupings of candidates, 5 at a time or 10 at time that the group could sort in the following days by a followon, more limited vote.
A minus to this approach is less time to discuss the various players. Less time for you to write up bios.
Correction again. Freeman would be the 3rd LHP. (He’s a reliever). Time for me to just stop.
OK, I guess I understand the logic of not including him among a list of up and coming prospects, but Brian Barton is unlikely to start the season on the 25-man roster (barring an unlikely series of injuries). In my mind, he’s not proven, but he certainly has potential as a useful major leaguer.
Given that, where would he rank among the near-complete list of 30?
Veering even further off-topic, it does seem strange to me the way the Cards have used the Rule 5 draft — Meijia, Luna and Barton. It seems a costly way (opportunity-wise) to flesh out a depth chart. Near term, I don’t think Barton fits in, and I’d also be surprised he’s bring much in trade.
Can he build value in AAA?
S
Thanks for the response yesterday, Derrick. I agree, it’s a rather tricky project regardless of the approach, and I certainly appreciate your taking it on. Sorry if I came off a bit strong yesterday - I have enjoyed taking part in the voting. I guess I just didn’t understand removing someone who came in 2nd in a previous vote. But, I do understand there’s no perfect answer, and you certainly can’t please everyone all of the time.
I do agree with Run Sup Sup though, in that I really like this particular poll with the extended list and the opportunity to vote for multiple players. Maybe this could be a format to try next year? Regardless, thank you again for taking on the project, and for the communication in the comments. It certainly helps the offseason go by much quicker!
Shaun Garceau
Freeman is an excellent suggestion. I should have put him on the list — and you nail the reason for him being mentioned: He’s lefthanded. He’s got a live arm. And, he’s lefthanded. The Cardinals needed lefties at the top and throughout the system, hence the intrigue of Ian Ostlund.
As for using a massive poll of candidates to start with and then narrowing it down into the individual rankings — that’s how we started doing the poll. It changed only when there was a wave of comments asking for it to be changed. So now you want it back that way? But you don’t want it done that way? Can’t make everyone happy …
dg
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