WEST COUNTY — We reach the penultimate stop on the Bird Land Community Top 30 with a couple new faces and several familiar ones still hanging on in the poll. Long about the time we reached the early 20s in your ranking of the St. Louis Cardinals’ Top 30 prospects, the voting began to fracture and the pool of legitimate candidates grew. That speaks to the depth of the organization, but also the similarity of the players past the top half.

It also, when you look across the names in the top 30, shows a developing trend within the Cardinals minor-league system and any of the many Top 30 rankings you’ll see: The Leapfrog.

Cardinals OF Jon Edwards joins the Comm Top 30 poll. Not this John Edwards …

Deryk Hooker won the 28th-spot in our poll here with 33 percent of an impressive 375 (or about) votes. A favorite of the prospecting crowd who out there panning for the hidden gem, the young righthander is pretty close to giving up his title as “sleeper” because it’s hard to be asleep on a guy getting this much run as a “sleeper”. He reaches the lower third of the poll by leapfrogging others who have been there before. Nick Stavinoha remains in the poll for example, and other, younger, newer prospects have bounded by him. Luke Gregerson cannot generate any traction in the poll, yet he was a top 30 prospect in the past — and has gotten better at a higher level. And nobody has mentioned a past darling of the prospect groupies: Pride of Tulane Mark Hamilton.

Joe Mather spoke to this when he arrived in major-league spring training last year. He idled in High-A Palm Beach long enough to start wondering when it was his turn to get released. Others around him did. He had teammates who were playing better than him get released. It usually happened, oh, in late June. The way Mather explained it: With every draft the players in Class A knew there was going to be the possibility a new wave of prospects was coming, and coming quickly. Could be that summer. Could be the next season. But a brooming of the room loomed and the long-timers new they could be out for the Next New Thing.

Same is true of prospect rankings.

Each year when I start working on the Top 30 for Baseball America, I begin with last year’s list. I jot down notes about some players. I right up errors and down errors by some other players. I put an “X” by some who probably won’t be ranked — not with the infusion of new prospects leapfrogging them into the poll. And with the Cardinals this year more than the previous years there were more potential leapfrogs. Why? The international signings are starting to do more than trickle into the Top 30. There were no less than eight candidates from the Cardinals’ international campuses and signings that could have been considered.

… But this Jon Edwards, the hulking outfielder, pictured here with Quad Cities. (Source: Flickr)

Throw in Lance Lynn and Brett Wallace and Niko Vasquez … well, there could have been turnover in more than a third of the Top 30 — and it would have remained credible.

New to the poll for No. 29 is one of the prospects who has been leapfrogged in recent years and another who could be doing the leapfrogging next year. Newly drafted Shane Peterson, a first baseman with solid gap power, joins the poll as the leapfrogger. Outfielder Jon Edwards, the leapfrogee, will get his first shot at the poll — his first shot, really, in a couple years.

About to turn 21 on Thursday, Edwards consistently grades out as the best outfield arm in the system. He he pushed by Colby Rasmus and a few others, but Edwards — according to scouts, according to coaches, according to others from other teams — gets the highest marks. He also continued to show improvement at the plate with a .306/.429/.541 line at Batavia last summer before a promotion to Quad Cities. In 98 at-bats with short-season Batavia, Edwards had 30 hits, 12 for extra bases.

Edwards, taken in the 14th round of the 2006 draft, was Scout.com’s No. 15 prospect the next winter and he rings at No. 32 on Scout.com’s rankings this winter. Others have performed better. Others have higher ceilings. But what’s really moves Edwards down the chart is the influx of new faces, new draft picks, new prospects.

In the 2007 Prospect Handbook, Edwards ranked No. 27 in the top 30, and I wrote:

Because he was ineligble for half of his senior season in high school, Edwards dropped to the 14th round in june and signed for $100,000. He already looks like a steal after ranking among the Top 10 Prospects in the Appalachian League … At a hulking 6-foot-5, 230 pounds he presents plus raw power … and is cast in the mold of a prototypical right fielder. … Edwards has a long swing, but it’s not unwieldy, and he has better pitch recognition than most young hitters.

The power hasn’t developed as “dreamed on” because of his imposing frame. He had nine home runs in 208 plate appearances last season. He offset 60 strikeouts with 27 walks as well. There’s a place for him on potential alone in some Top 30s, but the trick with Edwards is the same with all of the players listed in the poll below — deciding who he leapfrogs to get on the list.

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Tomorrow the poll concludes with voting for No. 30.

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