Warm-up Poll: What Chris Carpenter means to contending
DOWNTOWN — Infielder Adam Kennedy guesstimated that a healthy Chris Carpenter is worth an additional 15 or 20 wins in a season, and while that is certainly a generous theory it is laced with truth: A healthy ace Carpenter has always meant one thing for the Cardinals.
October.
As detailed in this morning’s paper by colleague Joe Strauss (”Carpenter gives upbeat report”), Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals are optimistic about how he’s recovering from his nerve issue. Carpenter called this a “normal January” and that could mean a normal February and a normal spring training and then … a normal season? In his two sessions with fans on Saturday, general manager John Mozeliak repeated that the Cardinals are counting on a healthy Carpenter and that, yes, in many ways the success of this season hinges on having the ace back in the rotation. The numbers certainly say so.
2004, 2005, 2006 … Carpenter averages 31 starts, 214 2/3 innings a year.
2003, 2007, 2008 … Carpenter misses ‘03, makes 4 starts, 21 1/3 innings total.
It should be noted that in 2008 the Cardinals did win more games than in 2006, when Carpenter was healthy and the year ended with fireworks. But the October connection is apt. A healthy and effective Carpenter gives the Cardinals a couple aces, more depth in the rotation, puts them in position to get the pitching they need to reach the postseason.
There are other variables, of course. The same argument could be said about the Cardinals chances of contending and having a consistent closer (perhaps even a better argument). See: 2008.
Carpenter is certainly the largest question entering 2009. So, I figure this is a fitting question then to start the second day of the 13th Winter Warm-up:
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
A healthy Carp is better than any 2 free agent pitchers we could sign at this point.
Predicting that Carp would make a difference of 15-20 wins is very generous. I’ll call it a successful season for Carp if he puts in 20 starts and wins 10 games this year for the Birds.
I think his greatest value to the Cards will be from a mental point of view. If he is able to come back without any major complications and setbacks along the way, then this has to be a major mental boost for the Cards.
I chose the middle ground on the poll, but in actual fact I think the Cards are contenders with or without Carpenter. What a healthy Carpenter does is make the Cards the winners.
“general manager John Mozeliak repeated that the Cardinals are counting on a healthy Carpenter and that, yes, in many ways the success of this season hinges on having the ace back in the rotation.”
STORM CLOUDS BREWING. haven’t we heard this before? last year? Carp will come back and all will be well? I love the guy, but come on, there are larger “ifs” with him than with anyone else. Don’t like to hear that the GM is counting on the most uncertain arm. He should be fortifying the rotation, and Carp’s return would be gravy…
The Cubs are going to be rolling out a deep pitching staff all year unless some of their arms go down with injury. I say Carpenter needs to go 30 starts, which would show him to be healthy all year. Anything less than that would show him to not be healthy. In my thinking, you are either healthy or you’re not. If Carp is healthy he will make at least 30 starts. If he is not the Cards will fold.
When one considers that the Brewers and Astros look to be going backwards, the Cardinals will probably contend w/o Carpenter. If they are to make the play-offs they will need a significant contribution from him(and others). If
he misses some starts in the first half of the season I don’t think it will hurt the Cards very much, but they will need him healthy and pitching well down the stretch or we will be on the sidelines in October for a 3rd year in a row.
Unfortunatley they are also without Looper. It seems to all hang by the thin thread (also called the arm) of Carpenter.
As my grandpa used to say- everybody makes mistakes but only a damn fool doesnt learn from them. Counting on Carp again puts Mo into the damn fool category imo. Hopefully we will all get lucky & it will work out okay.