JUPITER, Fla. — Less than 50 feet from his locker in the St. Louis Cardinals clubhouse and on his way to the kitchen for a snack, outfielder Colby Rasmus cannot help but walk by a stack of copies of Baseball America. It’s right there by the shelves of bubblegum and sunflower seeds.
The current issue might be of especially interest to Rasmus as it’s the annual rankings of the Top 100 Prospects in baseball. One of the most-thumbed copies of the respected trade publication makes for good conversation even in the spring training clubhouse, and Rasmus has a featured role in the list. He ranks No. 3 overall, behind Tampa Bay lefty David Price, who already has an American League pennant ring, and Baltimore catcher Matt Wieters, the prospect so go he even got Peter Angelos to deal with Scott Boras. And then there’s Rasmus — the top-rated player who was drafted out of high school, the top-rated center fielder, the top-rated prospect from the National League Central and the the top-rated player left from the 2005 draft.
“There’s no need for me to look at it,” Rasmus said, sitting on the opposite of the room from the stack of magazines. “It’s nice, but is that going to help me make the team? It’s a compliment and I’m sure it means a lot, but to me it doesn’t matter as much as (getting an at-bat) in a spring training game. It won’t mean all that much at all if I don’t do what I’m supposed to.”
What it means will be determined a year or so from now. What it shows can be easily discussed now.
Three Cardinals were ranked in the Top 100 — No. 3 Rasmus, No. 40 Brett Wallace and No. 91 Chris Perez, who remains eligible despite experience last year. Getting three on the list is decidedly average. Sixteen of the 30 clubs had either three or four prospects make the list. Atlanta had eight prospects who were originally in their system make the list, and Oakland and Texas led the list with seven current prospects in the 100.
Just as interesting is the breakdown by draft class, and what it reveals:
2002: One
2003: One
2004: Eight
2005: 17
2006: 15
2007: 23
2008: 15
There were 10 players from the most recent draft (2008) ranked before the 10th player from the 2007 class made the list, but from there 2007 zoomed ahead. Of those 23 players drafted in 2007 and appearing on this list not one is a Cardinal. Though Pete Kozma did get a mention on the prospect depth charts — see previous entry here at Bird Land — the only 2007 pick for the Cardinals garner a vote from the Top-100 panel was pitcher Jess Todd. (Others to just miss the cut were C Bryan Anderson, the de facto 104th prospect, and OF Daryl Jones.) If the absence of a 2007 from the list was startling, so too was the lack of a Cardinals starting pitcher anywhere in the mix — not even on the depth charts.
That likely would have changed had LHP Jaime Garcia not been out recovering from Tommy John surgery; he would have easily cracked the depth chart for lefty pitchers and was likely to crack the Top 100.
Perez, taken in the supplemental round of the 2006 draft, was the 13th player from his draft to rank, and Wallace, taken 13th overall last summer, was the 10th from his draft to rank. The Top 100 has a distinctly 2008 feel to it, with gobs of first-round picks from last June making the cut. How it shapes up, from Pedro Alvarez to Wallace, and note the ETA that Baseball America prescribes to each of these picks:
- 12. 3B Pedro Alvarez, PIT … 2nd overall … ETA: 2009
- 14. C Buster Posey, SF … 5th overall … ETA: 2010
- 20. SS Gordon Beckham, CWS … 8th overall … ETA: 2009
- 23. 1B Justin Smoak, TEX … 11th overall … ETA: 2009
- 24. 1B Eric Hosmer, KC … 3rd overall … ETA: 2010
- 25. LHP Brian Matusz, BAL … 4th overall … ETA: 2009
- 28. SS Tim Beckham, TB … 1st overall … ETA: 2012
- 35. 1B Yonder Alonso, CIN … 7th overall … ETA: 2010
- 39. OF Aaron Hicks, MIN … 14th overall … ETA: 2011
- 40. 3B Brett Wallace, STL … 13th overall … ETA: 2009
Four of the players picked ahead of Wallace ranked behind Wallace on the Top 100, and the only player to leapfrog him from the draft — Hicks — was the Cardinals’ fallback pick at No. 13 if Wallace went a few spots earlier, like to Oakland. Those ETAs are all rather speedy, speaking both to the emphasis teams are putting on moving prospects along and to the college-lean of the draft.
The romance of the 2008 draft is in full swing, somewhat because the players have been around long enough to put up performances that alter the look of their promise.
Not so for 2005.
Colleague Jeff Gordon wrote this past week from Jupiter about how the Cardinals’ farm system got a much needed goose from the 2005 draft. Since the moment he went 28th overall, Rasmus has been the torchbearer for that transformative draft. But he’s yet to take a swing in the majors, and the Cardinals have had just three members of the draft make the majors and not one of them is guaranteed to be back in the majors this season, let alone back as an everyday player. Meanwhile, 16 of the top 48 players taken in that draft have some sort of contributing job with a major-league club. One has thrown a no-hitter (Clay Buchholz), another was the ALCS MVP (Matt Garza), and a third, taken fifth overall, is a Rookie of the Year and one of the best righthanded hitters in the league (Ryan Braun). That draft class of 2005 has produced a Rookie of the Year winner, two runners-up and a third-place finish in the past couple years.
The ones not yet to make their dent in the majors, rank this way from the current Top 100 — pay attention to where they were drafted and how Rasmus has held his draft spot. The first number is their Top 100 rank, and then the last numbers are the round/overall pick from 2005.
- 3. Colby Rasmus, OF, STL … 1st, 28
- 4. Tommy Hanson, RHP, ATL … 22nd, 677
- 8. Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA … 1st, 10
- 18. Logan (pride of North Shore high) Morrison, 1B, FLA … 22nd, 666
- 33. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT … 1st, 11
- 34. Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL … 4th, 115
- 36. Austin Jackson, OF, NYY … 8th, 259
- 42. Jordan Schafer, OF, ATL … 3rd, 107
- 55. Aaron Cunningham, OF, OAK … 6th, 185
- 58. Nick Weglarz, OF, CLE … 3rd, 94
- 73. Taylor Teagarden, C, TEX … 3rd, 99
- 76. Chris Carter, UT, OAK … 15th, 455
- 77. Jonathan Niese, LHP, NYM … 7th, 209
- 83. Michael Bowden, RHP, BOS … 1st, 47
- 90. Daniel Cortes, RHP, KC … 7th, 215
- 96. Sean West, LHP, FLA … 1st, 44
- 99. Tyler Flowers, C, CWS … 33rd, 1,007
The 2005 draft for the Cardinals included several players who could be arriving at some point in 2009. Short of being chauffeured to the majors this spring, Rasmus is getting ample opportunity to win a spot out of spring training or arrive shortly thereafter. One of the early and most impressive prospects in camp has been SS Tyler Greene, taken two spots after Rasmus in the 2005 draft. Others aren’t quite as established: RHP Mark McCormick, taken 43rd overall, is expected to shift to a relief role this spring and for the coming year; RHP Shaun Garceau has impressed and is on the radar as one-to-watch for a young pitcher; C Bryan Anderson has established himself as a prospect, just not yet a role in the majors; and OF Daryl Jones will surge into the Top 100 (top 50?) with a repeat of his 2008 turn as the organization’s player of the year.
No ranking is going to offer the perfect snapshot of an organization, but the Top 100 does reinforce one prevailing fact for the Cardinals. If that 2005 draft is to truly change the minor-league production of the team, then the clock is ticking on the first difference-maker(s) to reach the majors. Mitchell Boggs and Jaime Garcia have made it — but can they stay (when healthy). Rasmus is on the cusp. The others …
As one Cardinals official said this past winter: “It’s time (that draft) started to pay off.”
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