CLEARWATER, Fla. — Pity Pete Kozma. Through no fault of his own he’s spent the first few years of his professional career doing exactly what was expected. Good glove. Consistently improving bat. Agility in the field that portends of a major-league shortstop with the potential for a reliable, average-oriented bat. That’s why the St. Louis Cardinals drafted him with their first pick in 2007.

The trouble is … He’s not Rick Porcello.

The story has now lapsed into cliche. But this past week the pitcher the Cardinals — and more than 2/3 of the other teams in baseball passed on — came to Jupiter, Fla., and wowed the brass that came just to see the righthander start against the Florida Marlins. He’s got a cut on his finger that’s slowed him here recently, but the buzz around Tiger Town on Monday was Porcello having a real chance to make the major-league roster. Helps that he’s on the 40-man roster — a condition of his signing that halted many teams in the draft. As one executive recently told me, the odds just aren’t there for a high school pitcher to turn out, not even with that much hype. If Porcello’s the one in a whatever to do so, then so be it. The Cardinals have to be confident with their logic …

That’s not to say lessons haven’t been learned. In the second volume of fans PostCards with Cardinals farm director Jeff Luhnow the shadow of Porcello continues to cast on the questions. Luhnow answers them succinctly, especially one about being “pennywise or pound-foolish”. He also talks about Jess Todd, makes a call on who will likely start at third base where at the beginning of the minor-league season, and talks about phrase we should all be a little more deft at using these days — “Black Swans.”

On with the PostCards:

***

Q: Thanks for taking our questions. Since the 2005 draft, the Cardinals have done a great job of stocking the cupboards in the minor leagues, and giving our farm system a lot more depth. It seems like we have taken a lot of college players, and players whose abilities are easier or safer to project. We haven’t taken as many of the young “toolsy” types, who might be more difficult to project, but have a ton of upside. Because the farm system now has so much depth on the strength of the last few drafts, are the Cardinals in a position to maybe take a few more chances in the draft, and go for some of the Porcello
types? It would be great to have a potential #1 starter in the pipelines.

– Mark G.

LUHNOW: I agree it would be great to have a potential #1 starter in the pipeline, and if we could get one in this year’s draft where we pick, that would be a slam dunk, regardless of his age. We have quite a few very good arms in our system right now… guys who can get better and ultimately become top of the rotation starters. The challenge with the draft is that the true #1 profile players fly off the board early, and if they don’t it’s usually because they are asking for big money, money that has to come from somewhere else.

On the topic of college versus younger players, you are correct that we have taken a lot of college players. Most teams do, and the majority of players drafted and signed are from the college ranks. We have, though, taken our fair share of high school players. Believe it or not, we rank in the top five in clubs taking players from younger sources (junior colleges and high schools) since 2005. The list is pretty exciting… Rasmus, Herron, Jones, Anderson, Garcia, Garceau, Maiques, Mulligan and Leach were all drafted and signed in 2005. Edwards, Pham, Additon, Dioupoules, Ingram, Mitchell, Buck and North were all from the 2006 draft. The 2007 draft included Kozma, Hooker, Zawacki, Tony Cruz, Broderick, Chambers, Mayes, Riportella, Delgado, Lugo and Blazek. Our most recent draft featured Vasquez, Fornataro, Ferrara, Swinson, Veres, and Mateo. I’m sure I’m missing some guys, but you get the point. There’s a LOT of talent in the younger group that we’ve drafted and signed and our system is filled with them.

There are a few high school and college pitchers with top of the rotation potential that I suspect will be gone where we pick, but if they are there I’d love to have them.

***

Qs from Lee Martin, Olathe, Kan.: I have a few questions for Jeff. If you could pass some/any of them along I would greatly appreciate it. 1. Arquimedes Nieto looked pretty good is his brief outing in the WBC. Is the organization looking to place him at Quad Cities this year?

LUHNOW: I was proud of him… especially his confidence and mound presence during his outing. Nieto will be a strong candidate for a role in Quad Cities this year, and with a good spring should break north with that club.

2. Can you tell us a little bit about Jose Pena, recently signed from the Dominican?

LUHNOW: Oh, I love this kid. We had a large group of scouts in the DR in November and we watched him workout and play in games. Besides a young man by the name of Mateo who is likely to be a multi-million dollar July 2nd signing this year, Pena was the most impressive player out of a large group. He has a plus arm, is a good runner, and has a very advanced bat for his age (17). We will play him in center field for the time being, but he could develop enough power to play a corner position down the road.

3. How is Scott Gorgen recovering from surgery and when is he expected back?

LUHNOW: Scott is progressing well. He’s very anxious to get back on the mound and he has been throwing from flat ground already. There is a chance he could get enough work in to break with a team in early April, but if not he shouldn’t be delayed more than a week or two.

4. Does Richard Castillo have a chance to make the jump to AA Springfield out of spring training?

LUHNOW: Richard is a sleeper who should continue his climb through our system this year. The plan right now is for him to start at Palm Beach and go from there. He has had two very good throwing sessions in the past few days and looks great.

***

Q: Because we have a ton of quality outfielders, will that prevent the Cardinals from pursuing an impact bat in the outfield? I think we could really use another one, especially next offseason with Glaus and Ankiel maybe going. Please share your opinion on this. Thanks.

– Brett Ramsey

LUHNOW: We are always on the lookout for an impact bat, and that won’t stop. Clearly, if we lose both Glaus and Ankiel we will need to replace those quality at bats with impact players. There are some possibilities internally, with Freese, Rasmus, Craig and Wallace to name a few, but we certainly would look at all the options including trades and free agency.

***

Qs from GPM: Where’s Jose Martinez? About a year ago, he was a fast rising middle infielder. I’ve heard nothing about him, this spring.

LUHNOW: Jose is currently in Venezuela attending to a personal matter and is expected in camp shortly. He will be put into the AA/AAA middle infield mix. On the field, Jose played most of last year with a foot problem and we now believe we have that solved. I expect a big year from Jose and hope that next year at this time we are talking about him as a potential big league player again.

I’m very interested in the Freese - Wallace log-jam. Now that Freese is back in minor-league camp, does this mean Wallace will play OF? And what about Allen Craig? Where does he figure in? Kosma and Tyler Greene form an interesting keystone combo. Which one projects as the SS? Thanks.

LUHNOW: At this point, with three weeks to go before the team’s break for the start of the season, the plan is the same as it was coming into the spring. David will be our primary third baseman at Memphis and Brett will be our primary third baseman at Springfield. Considering the terrific spring that Allen Craig has had so far, he would certainly be on the Memphis club instead of going back to Springfield, and he would likely play multiple positions… first, third and the outfield.

As for the middle infield position, Tyler Greene will continue to play shortstop if he does not make the final roster in St Louis, although he would likely continue to play third and second occasionally to keep him sharp should he be needed in St. Louis during the season. Pete Kozma projects to start the season as our regular shortstop in Palm Beach. Donovan Solano deserves mention as a possible big league middle infield candidate down the road as well and will most likely be playing in Springfield.

***

Q: I think many Cardinal fans have read the Michael Lewis book ‘Moneyball’ which glamorizes the ‘quaint’ method of baseball research and of which you are said to be an advocate. We are in the midst of a significant financial market collapse brought on to some degree, many say, by a number of institutions that didn’t adequately prepare for the Black Swans - i.e. the large deviations from norm that occur in the tails of distribution curves. Can you tell us about some ‘upside’ Black Swans in the Cardinal’s organization? Some players that didn’t or don’t show some characteristic that you might otherwise be looking for but that have been a welcome ‘outlier’. PS - I recognize this question may leave you open to criticism in a round about way, but hope you might give us some insight nonetheless.

– Joepa

LUHNOW: Interesting question… I’ve never thought about the organization’s “Black Swans”. There are two ways to look at this. First, who are the guys that we drafted for whom we had relatively low expectations that ended up surprising us on the positive side. That list for me would include Luke Gregerson, Tony Cruz, Steven Hill, Jim Rapoport, Andrew Brown, Mark Shorey, Marco Gonzalez, Matt Arburr, Charlie Kingery, Isa Garcia, Bryan Cartie, Casey Rowlett and Trey Hearne from prior drafts. Given where these guys were taken and the amount of signing bonus they received, they have all significantly exceeded expectations and several have turned themselves into prospects. There are several from last year’s draft but I will hold off until they’ve had one full season.

The other way to look at it is which guys did we draft that were selected primarily for their performance rather than their tools but have developed into more “toolsy” players, and vice-versa - guys who were “tools” guys with performance not quite matching the tool potential, who have made strides in their on the field performance. In the first bucket I would put Shane Robinson, PJ Walters, Shane Peterson, and Steven Hill. In the second bucket I would put Adam Reifer, Jim Rapoport and Antonio DeJesus. Not sure I’d call any of these guys “Black Swans” but they are all exciting players who are getting better.

***

Q: What are the chances that in the first few rounds of the 2009 first year player draft, the Cardinals go after for higher risk, higher reward players rather than what is what is perceived as lower risk and signable players.

– Jim

LUHNOW: Jim, it seems like our fans have turned “signable” into a curse word, and I must object. We do place a premium on “signable” players for a very simple reason - we want to sign the guys we like and draft. The only way to replenish and improve the system is to get good players into it, and that can’t happen if you draft them and they can’t be signed. We will always be aware of the likelihood that we can sign the player for an amount near what we perceive his value to be… hopefully below, sometimes we need to go above but that has happened too.

Having said that, I do think now that we feel our system has more depth than it did a few years ago, we can take a few more chances. By saying higher risk and higher reward you might be referring to high school players, and I can assure you that we are carefully scouting all the top high school players and we will have several on our board in the first few rounds.

***

Q: Jesse Todd. There are a couple of different views on this guy. Some see him as being more dominant in shorter stretches, and so, therefore, it makes more sense to bring him out of the bullpen, others see him as a member of a big league rotation. Where do you see him? Rotation or bullpen?

– emc2013

LUHNOW: He will continue to develop as a starter in the minor leagues. His opportunity in St Louis may come in either form… most often it comes as a reliever first (as it did for Garcia, Boggs, Wainwright, McClellan, Thompson and most other minor league starters that have made their debut in the past four years). For me he’s the type of pitcher that will be ready in either case. Our big league staff will ultimately figure out how best to use him.

***

Q: For fans who support the club’s new emphasis on developing the farm system, the quick rise of Rick Porcello has been particularly frustrating because he was passed over by the Cards for “signability” reasons in favor of Peter Kozma. Given the relative bargain Porcello now appears to be, how do you respond to the accusation that the Cards were “penny wise and pound foolish” on that pick?

– cards.ex.pat

LUHNOW: I like Porcello. I just saw him pitch last week here at Roger Dean against the Marlins. He almost took off the head of one of the umpires throwing to second base, but other than that he was impressive. There was never any question that we all (and I mean all 30 clubs) saw him as a guy with top of the rotation potential. I suspect there was not a draft board in the country that didn’t have him very close to the top.

Now, penny wise is another issue. It took more than a few pennies to sign Rick, as you know. Twenty seven clubs decided the asking price was too high relative to the risk, and yes, we were one of them. As it is with any pick, if the player makes it to the majors and has a successful career right out of the gate, then all of us regret not taking him. If he doesn’t make it or make it big quickly for whatever reason, then we breathe a sigh of relief that we used our resources elsewhere. In any case, rather than using what eventually happens as a guide for what should have been done, I prefer to constantly review our decision making approach. Are we gathering all the necessary information and using our best judgment to make the decisions? If a club can answer yes to those questions, or figure out how to get better if the answer is no, then they are on the right path. We are by no means perfect and every year we spend many, many hours and days trying to figure out how to get better. You would expect no less from us.

***

Q: You have done quite well with CI, OF and SP in AA and AAA, that have led to a good situation for the Cards. But the big club lacks infielders beyond this year (and possible even 2b now), have you altered your focus to draft and cultivate someone who can step in to the cards lineup next season at either ss or 2b, should greene leave or skip not work out at 2b? Thanks.

– Scott.

LUHNOW: I believe we have more depth at the middle infield than your comment would suggest, Scott. First of all, Tyler Greene has been impressive in big league camp and might become a legitimate alternative for either an everyday role or a utility role in the very near future. Not too far behind him we have a variety of players who might fit the bill going forward… besides Ryan and Hoffpauir, we’ve got Solano, Descalso, Kozma, Bolivar, Vasquez and Luna all playing middle infield at or above A ball. We have a longer list at the lower levels, but they are of course still a ways away.

There are a few intriguing middle infielders in this years draft, too. Players who can hit and play a good defensive premium position (SS, C, CF) typically go in the top ten, but if one at middle infield is there where we pick, we certainly would jump on that opportunity.

***

One more batch of questions to go for this spring’s Q & A with Luhnow. Volume 1 is available here.

-30-