DG’s 10@10: The Full Duncan & a Rookie’s Debut
TOWER GROVE — St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is fond of saying that outfielder Chris Duncan had a heckuva season split into two half seasons. When he’s healthy, he’s always hit, La Russa says of the Cardinals quick-starting leftfielder.
For proof, La Russa fuses Duncan’s second half of the 2006 season and the 2007 season into a statistical alloy — a numerical show of what he believes Duncan could do given a full season at his best.
The sum of his two half seasons creates this “Full Duncan” season:
2nd half 2006 … 68 Gm … 227 AB … 52 r … 67 h … 19 HR … 34 RBI
1st half 2007 … 72 Gm … 236 AB … 40 r … 68 h … 16 HR … 47 RBI
TOTAL … 140 GM … 463 AB … 92 r … .292 BA … 35 HR … 81 RBI
Duncan had an adventurous day at Wrigley Field on Thursday afternoon, what with a home run off starter Sean Marshall and some circus work in left field. He extended his hitting streak to 10 games — with a hit in every game this season that he’s started. His swing is backing up La Russa’s talk. And, with the exception of that gaudy .389 average so far, Duncan is on pace to put up some power numbers similar to the fusing of his two half seasons. If he gets the same amount of at-bats (463) and keeps this pace, Duncan will have 26 home runs and 129 RBIs. Of course, getting the same number of at-bats means getting starts against lefties this season.
And that is where today’s 10@10 starts.
- Duncan entered this season with a .215 average against lefthanded pitchers. When talking with Skip Schumaker this spring about his difficulty with lefties last year, Duncan interjected a salient point: Often lefthanded hitters will face lefthanded relievers “who are paid to get us out; so it shouldn’t be a surprise (when they do),” Duncan said. The Cardinals have opened this season with a rash of lefty opponents, and Duncan has been a regular starter against them. He’s always been a regular hitter. Entering this afternoon’s game, Duncan has mirror-image splits. He’s 7-for-18 (.389) against righthanded pitchers with one home run and five RBIs. He’s 7-for-18 (.389) against lefthanded pitchers with one home run and five RBIs. The biggest difference is he has six walks against RHP and zero against LHP.
- The Cardinals learned Thursday that Chris Carpenter has a tear in his left oblique, and that he will be out four to eight weeks. He joins Troy Glaus on a similar rehab schedule, and brings similar uncertainties to when he’ll return and how effective either will be when they do. Bring on the poll:
Loading … - The victory yesterday continues Adam Wainwright’s run of undefeated starts. The Cardinals righthander has not lost since June 2, 2008. He is 8-0 in those 11 starts with a 3.36 ERA over 61 2/3 innings. Of interest, however, is how in his final 45 1/3 innings of last season, Wainwright walked 15 against 33 strikeouts. In his first three starts — and 16 1/3 innings — this season, he’s walked 12 against 17 strikeouts.
- The Cardinals will turn to rookie P.J. Walters to start this afternoon’s game at Wrigley Field. The righthander had an impressive Class AAA season debut about a week ago, striking out six in seven shutout innings. Received a brief scouting report from a scout who covers the Cardinals’ system, and he wrote that Walters “is just another guy for me. … lacks command to be more than a 4 or 5 starter.” Walters did allow 123 hits and 62 walks in 122 innings last season at Triple-A Memphis. He has a plus changeup and usually hovers in the 88-89 area with his fastball, but it has been known to kick up to 91 mph with some consistency. Quoting from the scouting report I wrote for Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook on the Cardinals’ top 20 prospect: “For the second consecutive season, Walters was among the organizations leaders in strikeouts and strikeouts-per-inning, though he’s able to do it by mystifying batters more than overpowering them. … His best pitch defies hitters and description. He calls it a changeup, but the rotation of it and late movement has some scouts and coaches still calling it a screwball. The changeup breaks against the grain, and his delivery is deceptive enough that it also makes gives his fastball additional, if illusionary, giddyup. … His walks spiked at Triple-A and he allowed 22 homers overall. After a handful of more starts in Triple-A, he’ll get there as a back-end starter relying on unerring control and that unnerving changeup.”
- Walters will be the first Cardinals’ rookie to make his debut with a start at Wrigley Field since Andy Rincon did on Sept. 15, 1980, according to research done by the Cardinals’ media relations staff. Rincon pitched a complete-game victory, allowing one run on five hits in 5-1 win.
- The Cardinals lead the National League in several offensive categories: Runs (65), hits (112, 20 more than the second-most, LA Dodgers). They are tied for the lead with 13 home runs. Their .299 average and .389 on-base percentage also lead the league.
- The combination of the Cardinals’ third basemen have also produced well compared to the rest of the NL. As a unit, their batting average of .350 ranks third, their .386 on-base percentage ranks sixth and their .500 slugging percentage ranks fourth. Their seven total RBIs are tied for third. Brian Barden is 6-for-11 on this road trip with three runs scored and the first two home runs of his big-league career.
- FARM REPORT: The Cardinals affiliates swept the day, going 4-0. … Second baseman Daniel Descalso went 2-for-6 with a double and a triple and three RBIs during Springfield’s 11-9 victory. Daryl Jones went 3-for-4 to lift his average to .471. … In Triple-A, Joe Mather stirred with a 1-for-4 day. He doubled and drove in three RBIs. … Shane Robinson went 2-for-5 to lift his average to .393. … Down in Low-A, reliever Scott McGregor had a thrilling outing. He pitched three innings, allowed three hits, four runs, two earned runs and he struck out five. … Royce Ring got the win for two scoreless innings with Memphis. … At High-A Palm Beach, David Kopp, blogger/prospect, got the win with 2 2/3 innings of work in relief. He did not allow a run, gave up two hits and struck out three.
- A quick note from Yankee Stadium’s opening yesterday. The Yankees were never two games below .500 at the old Yankee Stadium, and, according to ESPN research, they were only under .500 twice in the history of Yankee Stadium: at 10-11 on June 12, 1923 and two days later on June 14, 1923, when they were 11-12.
- Albert Pujols has been walked intentionally three times in the past two games, and an NL-leading four times this sesaon. The Cardinals are 2-for-4 in the at-bat after an IBB to Pujols. Ryan Ludwick is 2-for-3 with a couple RBI singles in that situation. Also of note, Ludwick is one of two potential starters today to never have struck out against Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano.
Ludwick is 3-for-4 against the Cubs’ righthander. Schumaker is 7-for-19 with no strikeouts.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Thank god you got this in DG. I was getting fearful that I would have to go watch the game after lunch with a bunch of Cub fans without my daily dose of true knowledge. Thanks for doing this DG. I work with a Cub fan who checks the Sun-Times and Tribune every morning and emails me a lot of Cubbie info, in return I send him the info from StLtoday. That way we both can “know our enemy”. He just commented the other day that he wishes the Cub reporters were as good as the Post-Dispatch reporters and would get him more inside information and tidbits. So tell Strauss, the Commish, and all the other reporters that not only does St. Lou own Chicago in baseball, they also own them in terms of newspaper coverage.
Thanks again and please can we get some more Pd-Qs.
I agree with the take on Walters. Back-of-the-rotation starter sounds about right. The take on the fastball concurs with everything I’ve read … It consistently hits around 87-90 MPH, topping out at about 91 MPH.
A lot of those strikeouts are a result of his excellent changeup. Which is just really, really nasty. Best of luck in your first shot at the big leagues, P.J.!
Also, DG, one of the best parts about your blog, in my opinion, is the ample amount of minor league coverage provided. Love the addition of the “farm report” to the 10@10. Thanks and keep up the great work.
et tu, DG? r, BA, HR and RBI? not even a OBP and SLG%?
just giving you a hard time…love these 10@10’s…thanks
Yes, me tu. But not always. Guilty of expediency today.
Good work on the 10@10. Favorite part of my work day. People are finally starting to come around on Duncan. And its about time, all he does is smash. He may not play the best defense in the world, but he is not an outfielder. His offense will win us more games then his defense will lose. Also, I heard the other day on Mikalsz radio show that he was worried about the cardinals offense… C’mon Seriously! Look at point number 6. He expected everyone to come out of the gate on a hot streak, when we all know hitters are usually behind of pitcher in the beginning of the year. Lets get a little better analysis out of Bernie…otherwise I’ll take over his position.
Love the posts DG
Wouldn’t that be ANOTHER Carpenter win in the poll? Didn’t he get us one the first time out?
All Walters has to do is pitch like a #5 starter. He’s not going to replace Carpenter and the other guys will have to step it up. I like the fact that Oquendo loves Walters and the fact that he’s moved up the ladder so fast tells me he can make adjustments. If he can stay calm today and starve off the big inning, I think no matter the outcome today’s start has to be considered a success
I just wanted to put in my two bits along side some of the other posters. Your work is very much appreciated DG. Your efforts reflect a man who sincerely cares about his product and his customers. THANK YOU DG!!
Good Info DG, just wanted to point out the reason for #6 is because they’ve played more games than anyone.
Without a doubt the offense has been impressive, but the percentages are more impressive (and meaningful) than the totals, since the Cards have played the most games so far (2 games more than most teams). Going up against 3 good pitchers in the next 3 games will be a good test.