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05.19.2009 10:39 am

DG’s 10@10: Anxious Times as Cubs Come to Visit

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — Bruised and humbled by the surging Milwaukee Brewers, the St. Louis Cardinals welcome in their rivals comforted by what’s on the horizon. Reinforcements are coming.

During this three-game series against the Chicago Cubs, the Cardinals plan to welcome back starter Chris Carpenter from the disabled list — he’ll start Wednesday — and outfielder Rick Ankiel from the DL. Ankiel spent the weekend playing in extended spring training games in Jupiter, Fla. With the starting rotation wheezing and the lineup sputtering dramatically, it’s hard to pinpoint whose return will have more significance. A healthy Carpenter elevates the pitching staff and should give the Cardinals another sure-thing on a staff with few sure things so far this season. But the return of Ankiel — and in a week Ryan Ludwick — highlights one of the biggest things that has been missing from the Cardinals, this month in particular.

Runs. As in scoring them. As in producing them. As in craving them.

The only lead the Cardinals had in the three-game series against Milwaukee was, as colleague Rick Hummel said, a “mythic one”, because it was rained out on Friday. The Cardinals have lost seven of their previous nine games, and in those losses they have averaged 2.3 runs per game. Remember back in spring training when Skip Schumaker’s move to second base was a way to augment the offense — keep his bat in it, while adding another bat, like Chris Duncan’s, to it. The Cardinals knew they would be missing Troy Glaus for at least a month (ahem) and figured that offense would have to be found somewhere … somehow.

Last year’s team led the National League in batting and scored the fourth-most runs. This team figured to be deeper in offense and certainly has to be more productive than it’s been to contend. An audit of the Cardinals offense, position by position, shows how the Cardinals are struggling at certain areas to even match the offensive production of last year’s team. Several positions that were spotlighted for improvements haven’t yet been more productive. And the position that has had the most significant dropoff is a surprise.

That’s where the 10@10 begins.

1. Around the diamond, position by position, with the batting average and slugging percentage at each position from last year compared to the BA and SLG from this year at that position (some interesting numbers in bold):

  • C … 2008: .281/.376 … 2009: .304/.444
  • 1B … 2008: .328/.588 … 2009: .312/.638
  • 2B … 2008: .312/.398 … 2009: .276/.423
  • 3B … 2008: .273/.461 … 2009: .252/.370
  • SS … 2008: .268/.316 … 2009: .241/.365
  • LF … 2008: .267/.426 … 2009: .264/.451
  • CF … 2008: .293/.490 … 2009: .221/.359
  • RF … 2008: .295/.526 … 2009: .289/.483

The absence isn’t just players on the DL, though adding Ludwick back to the lineup will certainly give it a needed jolt. The absence is at third, a power position flagging in slugging percentage, and in center, where Ankiel and rookie Colby Rasmus are off last year’s production. The lack of power from third only underscores the need for it come from some other positions. Left field? Sure. Shortstop? Not yet. Elsewhere …

2. Chicago Cubs’ ace Carlos Zambrano is expected to rejoin the team in St. Louis this week to prove his hamstring is healthy enough for a start this coming weekend. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter is set to start Wednesday and outfielder Rick Ankiel could return in the same lineup. Health is returning to a few of the NL Central teams, but already the division’s rosters are starting to give the impression that an absence will help determine the division race. That’s today’s poll question:

Whose injury or ailment will have the biggest impact on NL Central race?

View Results

Loading ... Loading …

3. Mizzou grad and Tribune Cubs beat writer Paul Sullivan takes a look at how tonight’s Cubs’ starter, lefty Ted Lilly, has combined all the homers he’s allowed (fourth-most) and all the walks he hasn’t (fewest per nine in NL) to be one of the more successful pitchers so far this season. … Introducing a theme that will be revisited in No. 10 of today’s 10@10, Chicago Sun-Times baseball writer Toni Ginnetti presents how the success of this year’s Cubs is rooted in a revamped minor-league system. (Heard that somewhere before?) As Ginnetti writes, a dozen Cubs currently on the roster are from within the minor-league system.

4. Something that hasn’t happened for the Cardinals in at least 54 years has already happened twice at Busch Stadium this season. Reliever Chris Perez became the first Cardinal to walk three batters and strike out three batters in the same inning since information for such a feat has been available, in 1954. But earlier this season, Pittsburgh’s Donnie Veal made his major-league debut at Busch with three walks and three strikeouts in the ining. Perez and Veal are the only major-leaguers to do it since Justin Miller did for Florida in 2007.

5. Veal also allowed a home run in his inning, giving him a Three True Outcome perfecta. If you’re not familiar with the Three True Outcome phrase in baseball, it’s a statistical tag that describes a batter whose production at the plate can be described by Three True Outcomes — either he walks, he strikes out or he hits a home run. The conceit being that the ball never gets put in play. Washington slugger Adam Dunn is held up as leader of the Three True Outcome class. In 167 plate appearances this season, he has one of the Three True Outcomes 51 percent of the time: 11 homers, 33 walks and 41 strikeouts. Because there were so many walks this weekend at Busch Stadium, we had some time to discuss if the Three True Outcome pitcher exists. For an inning, Todd Wellemeyer had the look of it. Only one of the first 15 batters Sunday hit into an out in fair territory. We decided that an HBP would count as a de facto walk for a pitcher’s TTO%, and here’s how the Cardinals pitchers line up:

  • Todd Wellemeyer … 4 HR … 21 BB … 27 K … 3 HBP … 26.1 TTO%
  • Joel Pineiro … 2 HR … 7 BB … 14 K … 1 HBP … 12.6 TTO%
  • Kyle Lohse … 5 HR … 16 BB … 32 K … 2 HBP … 28.1 TTO%
  • Adam Wainwright … 6 HR … 23 BB … 40 K … 0 HBP … 32.4 TTO%

And, for the sake of interest, one of the TTO% leaders on the Cardinals pitching staff:

  • Chris Perez … 1 HR … 12 BB … 15 K … 1 HBP … 51.8 TTO%

6. Happy Anniversary Brad Thompson. Five years ago today Thompson pitched his 49th consecutive scoreless inning for Tennessee, the Cardinals’ affiliate, to set a Southern League record, and he nearly broke a 97-year-old record for scoreless innings pitched. In 1907, Irving Wilhelm pitched 59 consecutive scoreless innings, and Thompson’s overall streak, which started the seaosn before at a level lower, came four outs short of tying that record. The next year, in 2005, he made his major-league debut.

7. FARMNIK REPORT: The affiliates went 4-0 on Monday. … Brett Wallace, whose immediate future and gas-pedal promotion was the subject in Bird Land yesterday, went 3-for-6 in Triple-A Memphis’ 3-2 victory Monday. All three hits were singles, and after the 12-inning game Wallace is hitting .429. He also struck out twice for the second consecutive game. … Outfielder Jon Jay hit into a forceout and an error allowed the winning run to score in the 12th inning. Jay went 2-for-5 with two walks. … Shortstop Donovan Solano went 3-for-5. … Adam Ottavino walked six and struck out five in five scoreless innings. … Fernando Salas got the win after allowing one run in the top of the 12th. … First-rounder Pete Kozma drove in the winning run for Springfield in the bottom of the ninth. Kozma’s RBI single was the winner in a 3-2 victory against Arkansas. It was his third hit of the game, raising his Class AA average to .224. … Curt Smith, at DH, scored twice. … Relievers Tyler Norrick, Pete Parise and Francisco Samuel, who got the win, combined to throw four scoreless innings. … Righthander Brian Broderick pitched a season-high eight innings, allowing one run on four hits in Palm Beach’s 6-1 victory against Sarasota. Broderick did not walk a batter, and he struck out two. … Shane Peterson went 2-for-4 with two runs scored, a home run and three RBIs. He also struck out a couple times. … Matt Arburr who has that light-tower power that folks talk about started at DH for PB and he hit a home run. During spring training, Arburr is well known for the height and distance of his shots. … Catcher Charles Cutler went 3-for-4 and drove in a run. He is hitting .337 this season. … Scott McGregor got the victory for a 2 1/3 scoreless innings, but he was just picking off the win from piggyback partner Arquimedes Nieto. The WBC pitcher struck out six and allowed one run and three hits in five innings. Casey Mulligan struck out three in a scoreless 1 2/3 innings for his ninth save. He has 33 strikeouts against four walks in 16 2/3 innings.

8. Alas, Mark Cuban won’t bring his Twittering, trash-talking, official-bating ways to baseball. Thomas Ricketts is reportedly close to finalizing a deal to purchase the Chicago Cubs with a price tag of $900 million. (The Cardinals went for a reported $150 million back in 1995. Yeesh.) Ricketts is a corporate bond trader and the son of Ameritrade founder Joseph Ricketts. But there’s a report in this morning’s Sun-Times that Thomas Ricketts is inviting a few of the Seventh Inning-stretchers to join in his ownership bid. The celebrifans mentioned include John Cusack, Jim Belushi and Bill Murray. Say a celebrifan/celebriowner softball game were to break out, who would the Cardinals call on?

9. Suggested reading. The Post-Dispatch chimes in with some draft coverage this morning as Mr. Versatile Stu Durando – not to be confused with the sportswriter equivalent of a Swiss Army Knife, Mr. Tom Timmermann — has a feature about local prep pitcher Jacob Turner. Lots of good tidbits in Durando’s look at the perfect-frame, high-velocity prospect. That includes the nugget about how Turner, the ace for Westminster Christian Academy in suburban St. Louis, did not throw off-speed until his junior year. Many draft pundits believe Turner will be drafted in the top 10; some have him going in the top five.

10. A quick look at the two lineups used for Monday’s game has stirred debate. The Cardinals are relying — no leaning — more and more on their farm system, and Milwaukee offers an example of a team that has turned a series of high draft picks and exceptional development into a division contender. Consider, if healthy, the Brewers everyday start their first-round picks from 2002 (Prince Fielder), 2003 (Rickie Weeks) and 2005 (Ryan Braun). No other team offers as stark a comparison for the context we’ve spent the last two, three years trying to provide on how to look at the improvement in the Cardinals system. The Cardinals have ascended to the eighth-best system, according to Baseball America, as a result of their depth. And you are seeing that in play: the Cardinals see the Cubs’ 12 homegrown players mentioned above and raise them 11 rookies. Milwaukee has one of the best — arguably the best — system in baseball (see: Mat Gamel), and they rank so high because they have turned high, top-10 draft picks (which, granted, the Cardinals have not had) into elite players.

The difference is simple. One system has produced a stream of complementary players, so far. The other has provided centerpiece players.

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24 comments

Comments are closed.

6 months without Glaus (assuming he doesn’t come back) is a much greater loss than 2 months of Aramis Ramirez (estimated DL time).

— Tim
11:28 am May 19th, 2009

The Cubs success has more to do with their $140 million payroll than their farm system.

— Jerry
11:30 am May 19th, 2009

The “depth” from the eighth best system sure hasn’t helped the major league club very much lately.

— Terrapin03
11:52 am May 19th, 2009

I’m not seeing how all this supposed offense is going to make up for the extremely poor pitching we’ve been receiving of late. Even if Ankiel, Ludwick, and Glaus come back and perform, we still need better pitching. And that all begins and ends with Mr. Carpenter staying healthy.

— Bill Dujmovic
11:53 am May 19th, 2009

I agree with Tim. This poll should have been a no-brainer!

— z-doggy
11:55 am May 19th, 2009

Chris Duncan is coming back to Earth. I could see this coming.He gets off to a good start hits a few HR’s and you have these people saying “see i told you Duncan could play in the major leagues”. He has been stuck on 3 HR’s for a month now it seems. I am bashing him because he deserves to be bashed. He needs to produce or sit!!
Great point about the Cubs payroll Jerry!

— johnkennedy
11:59 am May 19th, 2009

Milwaukee’s reaping the benefits of drafting in the top 10 and paying them. It is a completely different situation that what we are doing in STL. We are trying to fuse veterans and rookies into a contending lineup and rotation/bullpen. Milwaukee had the “luxury” of letting these kids grow up on 60-80 win teams, outside of Braun. Even so, he was part of an 83 win team, not exactly spectacular.

Prince Fielder, 7th OVERALL pick, 2002
Rickie Weeks, 2nd OVERALL pick, 2003
Ryan Braun, 5th OVERALL pick, 2005

Sure, they have scored some wonderful late round picks in the past. Gallardo, Parra, Gamel and Hardy. But every team gets some gems in the 4th-12th rounds. That is more a testament to the work ethic of those players than it is the philosophy of the organization.

We are hoping to build this team around a mid-first round pick (Wallace) and a supplemental pick (Rasmus). Imagine if we had three top 7 picks to work with down in the minors, in addition to a plethora of top 15 picks.

The youth movement would be a lot more fruitful if we sucked for 15 years straight. If you want to give the Brewers love, give them love for not blowing all of those picks like Pittsburgh. Otherwise, lets talk about Tampa Bay, Arizona, Atlanta, Oakland, Baltimore, Texas, SF, etc. in the same breath as Milwaukee.

— bob
12:02 pm May 19th, 2009

What do people on here think about the possibility of the Cardinals pursuing Peavy? The pitching staff needs more help than just Carpenter IMO.

— johnkennedy
12:04 pm May 19th, 2009

Bob,

Some excellent points there. You could also throw in Matt LaPorta, who is the prospect that landed CC Sabathia. Many of the cornerstone players for the Brewers are top-10 picks. But don’t ignore the organizations deft ability to scout/draft/develop said players. Milwaukee is quite good at identifying, scouting and then developing hitters of the Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Gamel, Hardy, LaPorta … So on, so on.

That’s not a coincidence.

dg
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— Derrick Goold
12:16 pm May 19th, 2009

What is up with Glaus? Any idea when/if he’ll be back?

— dukeofearl
12:32 pm May 19th, 2009

Seems to me that 10-15 years ago Cards had a good farm system. Anyone remember?

— bomaoz
12:33 pm May 19th, 2009

I voted other.I think Carpenter’s injury will have the greatest impact on the NL central. It has the greatest impact simply because of his contract and how hamstrung the cards will be for a couple more years while paying this oft injured man.

— ronjon1702
12:33 pm May 19th, 2009

DG,

I’m right there with you. I live in Milwaukee and am peppered with talk about how great the system is. I agree, they can develop a bat with the best of them. Drafting potential is one thing, fulfilling it another.

There are holes however. They have serious pitching deficiencies in the upper levels of their farm.

My point is merely that Milwaukee and STL are hard comparisons. I’d love to get where they are with youth, but it would mean a lot of 65 win seasons to get there. That’s not worth it to me.

Milwaukee needs to be compared with Tampa, Pittsburgh, KC, etc. I find myself asking why we can’t be more like the Angels, Red Sox, Marlins and Braves…perrenial contenders that still find a way to draft great prospects. I think we’ll get there, but it’s a big work in progress.

— bob
12:35 pm May 19th, 2009

Please dont tell me how Dick Ankiel is gonna help…lets see another strike out guy who the other team knows in any clutch situation they can strike him out immediatly. yes its great when he connects those 25 times a year in blowout games where the pitcher hangs the crap out of a pitch. Um oh yeah some of you writers shoved lil dunc down our throats ,,,boy has he come on in the limelight huh,,,,the cards are wasting another year of playing with the best player in the game ,,,,the owners of this franchise do not deserve albert pujols,,,only help they have is if carp can actually take the ball ever 5 days and ludwick can return to lastyears form. if im a gm told that i need to pick true impact mlb players off this cqards roster id say ,,,,albert, yadi, ludfwick,, waino, carp, franklin, glaus, maybe schu but other than them their all dave duncan turnips that he can sometimes get blood out of or minor leaguers we use till league figures them out. I think the best baseball town in america (according to JACK BUCK) DESERVES BETTER ,,,,oh yeah ownership did i hear that we may sell 3 million again this year ,,,,so you coukld have added another major leager and dumped a project ……..i could go on but wont ….and please pease all writers other than the commish please dont tell me how good larussa is…i wish hed ask whitey why you dont warm pitchers up and not bring them in or pitch power arms two and three days in a row ???

— whiteysbiggestfan
12:40 pm May 19th, 2009

DG,

Great point on LaPorta too, I missed him. I am anxious to see if we are going to truly commit to drafting great players and getting them to STL. If we want everyday bats and arms to come through the minors, we need to draft the best available players and get them signed, as we did with Wallace. I realize there is more to it than that. But I would rather see this money spent on the farm rather than blowing millions of dollars on the likes of Ron Villone, Kip Wells, Juan Encarnacion, Aaron Miles, etc. There is no good reason you can’t fill those holes with a farm system if you are drafting for potential AND depth. These were fringe signings or potential signings…a below avg lefty specialist, a 5th starter, an average OF with some pop and a utility player. That was 2007-2008. In 2009…Ring (I realize he was a pickup, but he is on the farm nonetheless), Boggs, Mather and Tyler Greene. We’ve come a long way.

— bob
12:49 pm May 19th, 2009

‘08 v. ‘09 numbers are revealing. Rasmus, who’s swing is truly sweet, may have nevertheless been rushed up a bit this year. Ankiel, who’s defense is Edmonds-like, is also still learning at the plate. Both are good enough athletically to improve as the season progresses. And both have to if we have any hope of playing in the post-season. As far as Peavy is concerned, his contract with the Friars runs through 2012 with an option year in 2013. You’d figure the Padres would ask for a quite a bit and the kitchen sink. That’s not to say a deal couldn’t be worked out. But given Mozeliak’s apparent reluctance to take the training wheels off and play GM (Chris Antonetti, we hardly knew ye.), it’s unlikely. Interestingly, Peavy was a 15th-round pick in 1999.

— Dave Laskarzewski
1:03 pm May 19th, 2009

You cannot rely on as many rookies as the Cardinals have so far this season and expect to make the postseason.

You cannot bank on players coming back from injury and being at all-star caliber and expect to make the postseason.

You cannot keep pulling players from the bottom of the barrel and hope to reform them while paying them next to nothing and expect to make the postseason.

The Cards do not have the depth to play this short on players and be in contention come July. The bats aren’t there, the pitching isn’t there, the bullpen isn’t there. There are alot of articles saying don’t panic, but that is exactly what we should do. Mozeliak needs to do something and his passive “I’ll wait and see what falls into my lap before I do something” approach to GM isn’t going to cut it. We need three everyday starters in the OF and have a good bench OF. We need a starting infield that plays at the same position every day and a good utility infielder. We need 5 starting pitchers who have proven that they can go late into games and eat up innings for a whole season. We need a bullpen who doesn’t give up leads and keeps us in ballgames when they come in from behind. We absolutely need a lights out closer.

The Cardinals have approached the central division for the last few years as contented to play for the wild card. I do not accept this approach. I need to see a team and an ownership who is committed to winning and putting a quality product on the field.

— Jason
2:36 pm May 19th, 2009

Personally, I don’t feel like we’ve lost much at 3rd. Barden and Thurston are dong just fine. We are a different team when Waino and Carp are right and that day is soon. One more arm and some healthy outfielders…..we’re golden. Oh…Also, keep K.Greene away from the lineup.

— gccardinal
2:44 pm May 19th, 2009

The impact that a player makes coming up from the farm system means just as much as drafting good players. The Cardinals have brought more youngsters up in the past few seasons, but their growing pains have clashed too much with Tony LaRussa’s managing style. You can chalk part of it up to LaRussa using the platoon advantage to play the hot hands and rest others over a 162 game season, but it’s like the point already made about the young players Milwaukee brought up: the Brewers brought up core players playing everyday regardless and the Cardinals have them in a platoon system where struggling bats sit on the bench instead of working through their slumps.

— Michael Scriven
3:05 pm May 19th, 2009

I may not be remembering correctly, but didn’t the Cardinals pass on a high priced prospect in the draft a few years ago because they did not want to pay him what he was worth?? Who is to say if the Cardinals had top 10 drafts the next three years they would not trade down or draft someone they could pay less… so called “low hanging fruit?”

— Mike
3:57 pm May 19th, 2009

The Cardinals have the greatest player in modern history and is surrounded by minor leaguers. Its just a crying shame.

— jamesK
5:14 pm May 19th, 2009

Let’s face it: no playoffs this year, and probably not next year either. I would trade Pujols out of the division (and probably the NL) to whatever team has the deepest farm system and is willing to part with 2 or so young major leaguers on the cusp of being stars and 2-3 top prospects, with preferably at least one top bat and two or so good young pitchers.

— Playing for the Future
5:58 pm May 19th, 2009

“Playing for”……You have temporarily lost your mind. There is no way to get rid of Albert and sleep at night. The guy is the best……ever. All we need is another quality arm to start and another for the pen.

— gccardinal
8:31 pm May 19th, 2009

RASMUS etal Got the superstar attitude.Almost runs out a ground ball,almost
hits the cut off man,almost backs up bases. Been told I’m going to be great since was in diapers.Ain’t seen nothin better than SHU who ain’t got the attitude.Stop watching the ball and run what do we need base coaches for other than tell how many outs there are?RUN DON’T WATCH

— sfox2613
10:44 am May 21st, 2009