DG’s 10@10: Inheriting Trouble & Carpenter meets Dizzy
SOUTH GRAND — The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen inherited four innings of work and a one-run lead Wednesday night against the Chicago Cubs and turned it into a victory. It was a large-scale example of what the bullpen has been doing remarkably well within individual innings all season.
Say this about the Cardinals’ relievers: They are stingy with their inheritance.
When the Cardinals and general manager John Mozeliak set out to rebuild the bullpen, one of the guides that the front office used to target candidates was inherited runners. Lefty Trever Miller had been one of the best in baseball at coming in with runners on base and leaving without any of them scoring. Several of the other relievers the Cardinals looked at also excelled in the fireman role of coming into a game in peril and dousing an opponent’s rally. It was, Mozeliak said several times this winter, something they valued in a newcomer.
With help from Bernie Miklasz’s Magical Mystical Statistical Machine — and first dropped by Miklasz over the weekend in his Bits — the Cardinals are leading the majors in avoiding the trouble with inherited runners. It’s a stark contrast from last season when inherited runners were often known by another name: Runs. The Cardinals have allowed only two of 29 inherited runners to score this month. Overall, they have allowed only nine of 59. The percentage this month is an uncanny 6.9 percent.
Seems like a good place to start the 10@10 …
1. Seven of the nine inherited runners who have scored have done so against the lefties, Miller and Dennys Reyes, and another two did it against newcomer Blaine Boyer. Four righthanders have allowed one or fewer inherited runner to score. The breakdown:
- Ryan Franklin … 0 of 5
- Kyle McClellan … 0 of 7
- Chris Perez … 1 of 7
- and, the leader, Jason Motte … 0 of 9
The reasons for the success can be multiple, including — in a few cases — the rare appearances by some with runners on base (i.e., they are start-of-the-inning relievers). But there is another indicator as well. Franklin has retired 15 of the 16 first batters faced, and rookie Motte had retired 14 of his 18 first batters before giving up a leadoff single Wednesday night.
2. Wednesday’s game was chocked with events that have been known to give Cardinals fans the willies. Chris Carpenter throwing a baseball. An offense based on sacrifice bunts. A death-defying ninth inning. All that was missing from the catalog of standard-issue Cardinals fans’ frights was the opposition starting a lefthanded pitcher. Oh, that happens tonight. And that’s the poll.
3. Carpenter made his stirring return to the team and extending his scoreless innings streak all at the same time. Carpenter pitched five scoreless innings in what was his 100th career start for the Cardinals. He improved to 53-20 as a Cardinal, good enough for a .726 winning percentage — the best of any Cardinal pitcher in his first 100 starts for the franchise. Carpenter topped the previous best held by John Tudor (.700). Only two Cardinals pitchers had more wins in their first 100 games — the ace of the Gas House Gang and the ace of the Swifties. Dizzy Dean won 62 games in his first 100 starts, and Harry “The Cat” Brecheen, who won three games in the 1946 World Series, won 58 of his first 100 starts for the Cardinals. Good company.
4. Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella, that old hitting coach, is confounded by his team’s lack of offense, as Rick Hummel explores in today’s paper. He’s got a third baseman, pride of Salmen High Mike Fontenot, lost in a 2-for-36 slide. Milton Bradley, that big bat they signed in the winter, hasn’t seen the Mendoza Line yet this season. (He’s one of two starters in baseball to have spent the entire season beneath .200.) And when Ryan Franklin entered the game in the ninth inning last night was facing the 4-5-6 hitters of the Cubs lineup. Last year, when the Cubs were the king run producers in the league, that was a place where giant trouble lurked. This year it’s a string of hitters with the following averages: .230, .193, .200. Yet, they’ve done enough for manager Tony La Russa to insist the Cubs are one of the hottest teams in the division, and he has their 11-4 record before this series to prove it. “Until we get some of these batting averages up, forget how many runs we score,” Piniella said. “You don’t score runs with smoke and mirrors. You’ve got to get the batting average up, the on-base percentage up and then you can talk about how many runs you do or don’t score.”
5. As discussed earlier this week here in the blog, Brett Wallace isn’t motoring toward the majors as rapidly as his promotion to Class AAA would suggest. John Mozeliak deflated that notion in this morning’s notebook. He also acknowledged that the Cardinals could be pushed to explore options outside of the organization. Well, one intriguing third baseman-type is already making his rounds through the rumors: Mark DeRosa. Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that Cleveland is fielding offers for DeRosa, who has started at third base, but seemed to play a dozen or so positions for the Cubs last year (when you include greeter, ambassador, spokesman … ). DeRosa, with his $5.5-million salary, has the versatility to make him a short-term answer at one position and a long-term presence in any lineup. What does it take to get him? Just a guess here … um … pitching.
6. Before snapping loose with a couple hits Wednesday night, Chris Duncan matched a career high in his first at-bat. When he grounded out to first base, he slipped to hitless in 15 at-bats, tying two other stretches in his career, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. He went 0-for-15 in September 2006 and May-June 2007. Duncan singled in a run in his second at-bat and he doubled and scored in his third at-bat. Duncan is 12-for-57 this month with a .211 average and a .258 on-base percentage. He’s gotten an expanded amount of playing time because of the injuries to Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. And despite the averages and the percentages, Duncan has driven in more runs this month then every other Cardinal save one. And no it isn’t Albert Pujols. Duncan has 10 RBIs this month, second on the team to Colby Rasmus’ 11.
7. FARMNIK REPORT: Curt Smith drove in the winning run with a groundout in the 10th inning Wednesday as Springfield toppled Arkansas, 5-4. Smith homered earlier in the game and went 1-for-5 with the homer and two RBIs. … Outfielder Daryl Jones went 2-for-4 in the leadoff spot with a walk and a strikeout. He drove in the other two runs. … Francisco Samuel got the victory to improve to 3-1 with a scoreless inning. He struck out two. … Lefty Ryan Kulik did a lot of the heavy lifting with seven innings pitched. He allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hits and he struck out four. … Righthander starter and sleeper prospect David Kopp pitched a career-high seven scoreless innings for High-A Palm Beach, but the PB-Cards lost, 2-1. Domnit Bolivar drove in the only run. … Quad Cities lost, 9-3, to Dayton. Outfielder Paul Cruz went 3-for-4 with a home run and two RBIs. He scored two of the three runs. … Starter Adam Veres allowed six runs, but only one was earned.
8. Reading list. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick takes a look at nine minor-leaguers on the verge of the majors, including the aforementioned Wallace. … As part of Sporting News’ Draft Center, this profile of former Mizzou ace Aaron Crow looks at how he wants his second time in the draft to be his last time in the draft. … Matt Nestor of the Columbia Daily Tribune has the details on Mizzou’s first-round win in the Big 12 Tournament. … For the folks out there who thought maybe Joe Maddon, in his final year of his contract, and the Cardinals were a future fit (c’mon, he did grow up a Cardinals fan), there’s word of a three-year extension coming his way. … And finally, in case you missed the news yesterday: There is a bill moving through the state legislature that would rename a portion of Highway 40 (Interstate 64) Jack Buck Memorial Highway. It’s possible that Buck Highway would meet Mark McGwire Highway right near Busch Stadium.
Talk about baseball at a crossroads.
9. Two statistics. One amazing, the other perhaps appearing in tonight’s game. First, from Elias: Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee hit 19 home runs in his first 85 games against the Cardinals. He hasn’t hit one in his pats 26 games against the Cardinals, a span that now has lasted 103 at-bats. … Second, from the stat files: The Cubs at least set up their rotation right for this series. Sean Marshall will start tonight against the Cardinals giving the Cubs two lefthanded starters sandwiched around Ryan Dempster. The Cardinals are hitting .223 against lefties this season and reaching base at a .309 clip. Both of those rank 12th in the National League. But here’s the doozy: The Cardinals are slugging just .338 against lefties, second-lowest in the league. Essentially, lefties turn the entire Cardinals’ lineup into … well, take a look
Cardinals lineup vs. Lefties … .223 BA … .309 OBP … .338 SLG
David Eckstein, 2009, SD … .234 BA … .307 OBP … .321 SLG
10. Plenty of discussion last night in the press box about Sporting News’ Top 100 players list, mostly centered on where some of the players ranked. For the entire top 10 check back to yesterday’s entry at Bird Land, and you can get the top 50 at the magazine’s Web site. What spurred the chatter was the stunningly low rankings for several players: No. 20 Evan Longoria (fine, second-year player, OK). No. 32 Ryan Braun (huh? one of the elite righthanded hitters in the league isn’t in the top 10?) and the granddaddy of What The Fudges? … No. 39 Joe Mauer. Sorry, the best player at the most demanding position in the game and a two-time batting champ absolutely has to rank in the top 38. It’s mandatory. Gotta side with my man Stan McNeal, a baseball writer at Sporting News, who pegs Mauer as No. 2 on his list, Longoria as No. 10 and Braun at … No. 46.
Well, it’s not easy. So, who is in your top 10?
OK, I mean who is your Nos. 2-9 …
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
The Indians want pitching for DeRosa. Someone with major league experience, who doesn’t fit into the cards plans, former potential to be good, and needs a change of scenery. How about we trade Anthony Reyes for DeRosa? Oh wait, never mind…
DG - regarding runners inherited last year … where did the BP stand at this same point in the year? Was it worse then or did it get worse later on and as a cumulative? I think we all know the BP was ‘over exposed’ last year and I wonder if it will happen again if the starters do not start eating more innings.
FWIW I think the ida of targetting relievers that are highly regarded in this category was a gret move by MO. But will it hold up?
DG, a question about the inherited runners. Suppose Lohse starts an inning, puts a guy on base, and gets yanked. First Perez comes in for 1 batter and gets him out; then Trever Miller comes in and gets a guy out; and finally McClellan finishes off the inning with an out. All 3 guys get credit for a stranded runner, so if you tally up the individual totals that’s 0 runs / 3 inherited runners. But from a bullpen-wide perspective it’s 0 runs / 1 inherited runner — not nearly as impressive, statwise.
Could the Cards’ stellar strand rate be inflated by this effect? It seems like Tony has racked up even more 1-batter and 2-batter innings than usual this year. . . . .
It’ll probably have to be a reliever or two for DeRosa. It looks like Motte/Jess Todd might be an option. The Cardinals have actually bullpen depth to spare(12 relievers is a bit much), and if they trade Motte and a decent starting pitcher prospect, I gotta think the Indians pull the trigger on that one. Todd can get called up to fill in Motte’s slot, and all would be ok.
Werewolves? That was funny…
1. Albert
2. A-Rod
3. Santana
4. Longoria
5. Hanley
6. Manny
7. Mauer
8. Braun
9. C.C.
10. Utley
The Indians want pitching, but if you look at the attendance figures there, they’ll get to the point (quickly) where they just want to drop salary.
I could be wrong, but I didn’t think that Mo told the Fox guys last night that Wallace wouldn’t be called up. I thought he said there were no thoughts of calling him up NOW. Starting today, we have moved past that point haven’t we? Derek, maybe someone can confirm that.
Mauer is easily top 10. How many Mets were in that group? I heard there were a lot. Once again, this thing is weighted based on population or a population proxy (like sportwriters).
Molina is #50 on Stan McNeal’s list (only other catcher besides Mauer).
1. Pujols
2. Halliday
3. A. Rodriguez
4. Utley
5. Berkman
6. Santana
7. Beltran
8. Cabrera
9. H. Ramirez
10 Webb
Right on about Joe Mauer, D.
The list was really comical.
-B