DG’s 10@10: The Best Spot in Baseball to Hit
TOWER GROVE — The best spot in baseball to get a batter going may be batting second in the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup, ahead of reigning MVP Albert Pujols. But the hardest spot in baseball to keep a batter going apparently is Cardinals’ cleanup, one spot behind Pujols.
Witness Chris Duncan.
Cast in the cleanup role several times during the previous home stand, Duncan struggled there. But thrown into the No. 2 spot for the first time this season Tuesday in Milwaukee, Duncan responded with a 2-for-4 day, including two RBIs and a home run. Nothing snaps a funk like hitting in front of Pujols. Duncan batting second again on Wednesday and went 1-4. It’s a spot he’s done well in before, hitting .282/.358/540 in his career from the No. 2 spot.
But it’s not the No. 2 spot that is going to get the attention today.
With Ryan Ludwick expected to return from the disabled list afternoon, it’s whether he’ll slide right back into the cleanup role — even against a righthanded pitcher, Matt Cain, tonight — and what that means for Pujols and the offense. The Cardinals spiral offensively can be tracked back to Ludwick straining his hamstring at PNC Park, and so too can the relative drag on Pujols’ bat. As the guys at KSDK/Channel 5 pointed out on their Twitter feed yesterday (see No. 8), the cleanup hitters batted about .100 in Ludwick absence. That position in the lineup produced four RBIs with Ludwick on the DL.
Not exactly the kind of imposing presence that inspires a team to pitch to Pujols.
And that is a place to start today’s 10@10(ish) …
1. This season, Ludwick has slugged .561 this season in the cleanup spot. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, that slugging percentage would rank second in the NL, sandwiched between Adam Dunn’s .612 and Ryan Howard’s .542. Others nearby include Carlos Lee at .525 and Prince Fielder at .506. Check out what Ludwick has done in the cleanup spot for the Cardinals compared to the others who have tried that position in the lineup:
Ludwick … .293 BA, .561 SLG … 82 AB … 12 runs … 10 XB … 6 HR … 22 RBI … 7 BB/16 K
Others … .183 BA, .290 SLG … 93 AB … 8 runs … 6 XB … 2 HR … 11 RBI … 13 BB/15 K
2. (11:15 a.m. update. OK, thanks for the patience.) As mentioned above, manager Tony La Russa has used the No. 2 spot in the lineup get a hitter going before. For example, Duncan this week. He’s put Rick Ankiel there to jumpstart him, Colby Rasmus did some good work in that spot this season, and any number of utility or platoon fits have had their swings ahead of Pujols. While La Russa likes “damage” in the No. 2, the most important number for the position in the lineup could be on-base percentage. One way to keep Pujols’ bat in the lineup — and arguably the best way — is to put someone on base ahead of him. Some opponents are still going to balk at the idea of walking Pujols and putting a runner in scoring position. Thing is, the No. 2 spot hasn’t been all that productive this season for the Cardinals. The No. 2 spot’s .316 on-base percentage ranks third-worst in the National League. The average and the slugging percentages are only slightly better. Where the two-spot ranks this year and from previous years (NL rank):
2009 … .267 (10) … .316 (14) … .405 (11)
2008 … .315 (1) … .371 (2) … .493 (1)
2007 … .309 (2) … .372 (2) … .498 (1)
2006 … .271 (13) … .338 (11) … .426 (8)
2005 … .265 (10) … .332 (7) … .414 (7)
2004 … .279 (8) … .350 (5) … .473 (2)
3. Now, before you answer the question for today’s poll, consider the options first. There is a hitter mentioned here as a candidate for the Cardinals cleanup position that may be taboo for the spot in the lineup around the clubhouse, but in many ways makes sense as the option. Keep that in mind. He’s listed first in the poll:
4. From the Missed Ace count, add Tim Lincecum. The reigning Cy Young Award winner is not scheduled to pitch in this three-game series against the Cardinals, though Saturday’s game does present a duel of former Cy Young Award winners. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter won the Cy Young in 2005 and is showing the same sort of dominance this season — as despite being sidetracked by a torn oblique he’s yet to allow an earned run in his start. Barry Zito, his opposite on Saturday, won the Cy Young in 2002 and he’s struggled ever since signing what was the richest deal for a pitcher in baseball at the time. He’s lostthree consecutive starts.
5. A lot of baseball draftniks see Westminster Christian Academy righthander Jacob Turner as this summer’s Rick Porcello — only nobody has him falling all the way through the first 20 picks of the draft. One reason: Detroit picks ninth. Friend and ESPN.com prospect guru Keith Law released his first Mock Draft this week, and it’s available to Insiders over at ESPN.com. Law has Turner going ninth overall to the Tigers, the same team that took Porcello. Law also has the three pitchers with local ties all going in the top 10. Aaron Crow, the Mizzou pitcher who didn’t sign with Washington last year, is set for No. 3 to San Diego. Law predicts that Washington will revisit the Tigers talent with their 10th pick, taking current Mizzou ace Kyle Gibson. Law suggests what we’ve saying in here for awhile that the handful of lefthanded starters will be too much for the Cardinals to ignore, and he has them taking Mike Miner with the 19th pick. This is what Law writes:
Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt: They want to add a lefty and Minor is a pretty safe if low-upside bet. The Brian Goodwin rumor seems to have quieted down, with mixed feelings on him in the Cardinals’ scouting department. He’d be a reach here and a very expensive one.
6. Speaking of Porcello, that starting pitcher that so many teams passed on in 2007 — including those Cardinals, who have said they wanted to be in position to take advantage of a falling talent — how’s he doing? Well, the headline on this MLB.com story says it all: “Porcello’s historic run continues”. So, which was that scared teams away from taking Porcello? Was it the bonus? Was it the spot on the 40-man roster? Does it even matter? Porcello, not yet 21, has won all five of his starts this month. He’s posted a 1.50 ERA in those five starts and allowed 32 base runners in 30 innings. That’s not just the resume of a rookie of the month candidate, it’s a strong candidacy for the American League’s pitcher of the month award.
7. FARMNIK REPORT: A favorite of the coaching staff during spring training for his work behind the plate and his good-soldier attitude, Matt Pagnozzi had a breakout night for Class AAA Memphis on Thursday. Pagnozzi, a good-glove catcher, homered twice and drove in five runs. He went 2-for-4 with the two runs scored. The homers gave his three this season and he more than doubled his RBI total. Pagnozzi won the backup catcher job in Memphis with his play during spring training, assuring the Cardinals that they could go into the season without the veteran or journeyman catcher at Memphis to provide depth at the position. … In the same game, Memphis first baseman Allen Craig extended his hitting streak to eight games and Jon Jay doubled twice. Both of those players were part of the March lion, April lamb crowd. They impressed during spring training, but have gotten off to slow, slow starts this season. … David Kopp got his first Class AA victory Thursday, and he drove in the two runs than helped make him the winner. Kopp, making his first Class AA appearance, after a promotion, allowed two runs on three hits in five innings. At the plate, the righthander went 1-for-2 with a two-out, two-run double. … Shortstop Pete Kozma, the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2007, went 2-for-2 with two walks and one run scored for Springfield. … High-A Palm Beach’s three-running was enough to win 3-2 on Thursday. Colt Sedbrook went 2-for-4 with an RBI. Thomas Eager got the win with three strikeouts in his three scoreless innings. Adam Reifer got the save with a couple strikeouts in his scoreless ninth. … Low-A Quad Cities was shut out, 8-0. Adam Veres allowed six runs, all earned, in 4 1/3 innings.
8. A tradition on Twitter is called “Follow Friday” (#followfriday or #ff in the lingo of the land). So, using that theme, here are some folks to follow on Twitter for their baseball coverage, their insight, and their Cardinals takes: Yours Truly (dgoold). … P-D columnist Bernie Miklasz. … Matthew Leach, MLB.com writer … SI.com’s Jon Heyman. … The crew at Fox Sports Midwest. … JoeSportsFan. … KMOX’s Tom Ackerman and KMOX’s Kevin Wheeler. … Channel 5 Sports Folk. … Pitchers Hit Eighth. … KTRS 550’s John Marecek. … Baseball America. … A Cardinals Newsfeed. … And there are more that I’ll sprinkle in every so often, including Cardinals pitcher Todd Wellemeyer, who Tweets at Todalion, just not all that often. Your suggestions are welcome, too. That’s sort of the idea, I’m told, behind #ff.
(Aside: The Post-Dispatch is starting to use #stlallstar to designate all All-Star Game related announcements and news tips on Twitter.)
9. Mizzou baseball opens its NCAA Tournament play today just off The Square and near The Grove in lovely Oxford, Miss. The Tigers face Western Kentucky at 3 p.m. today, and Mike Bianco’s Rebels are the host team. The Post-Dispatch’s Rick Hummel intern, Luke Thompson, has a look at Mizzou’s leadoff hitter Austin Holt.
10. Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce hit two home runs Wednesday and then after the game he really popped off. The talented Mr. Bruce, one of a group of young Reds who will make Cincinnati a contender this season, all but guaranteed a string of victories coming for the Reds. (See Bernie’s 5 Minutes for a link to Hall of Famer Hal McCoy’s take on the Bruce guarantee.) After Wednesday’s 6-1 victory against Houston, the Reds headed off on a road trip that takes them to the two clubs ahead of them in the standings. First, it’s Milwaukee this weekend and then it’s a four-game series at Busch Stadium to start of next week. Said Bruce:
“We came in here and took care of business. We’ll go on the road on a roll with some momentum. We plan on coming back (to Cincinnati) in first place.”
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
DG -
What do you think about the Cards trading Mitchell Boggs to the Angels for Brandon Wood? Both are MLB-ready, are currently not playing much (if at all) in the bigs, and would fill a need for the acquiring team. And, neither team would have to take on (or eat) any salary. What’s not to like?
10:59! Oh, yea of little faith!
DG slides in under the tag!
DG delivers. Maybe he should bat cleanup!
Brandon Wood certainly is an intriguing name, but he’s never really shown that same pop in the majors that has made him a minor-league/prospect darling. Boggs’ performance in the majors is far better. There’s a little Dallas McPherson feel about Wood. That said, for many he casts the look of a guy who just needs consistent exposure. He’s yet to really get regular at-bats, save for a long look in September 2008 when he went 17-for-72 with four homers (two in one game), a .253 on-base percentage and a .444 slugging percentage.
I am so a No. 2 hitter. Ask Strauss.
DG-
Who primarily batted in the two spot in those seasons? Does that have any impact on those numbers? I know this is quite an in depth analysis, but how did those players fair in games at other spots in the line-up?
DG -
Thanks for listing Albert in the discussion because I was going to comment about that before I saw the poll. I believe Albert should hit 4th. He is the most proven hitter on the team and could rake in any spot in the lineup. He is too good for other hitters to protect him, but he can protect anyone. Therefore put 3 guys in front of him. He protects them all. I would bat Ludwick 3rd and anyone else you want in second. Too often in the first inning the first two guys get out and Albert hits a single only to be stranded. If he bats cleanup, let there be 3 options to get on in front of him so his single means something. Or if they all fan, then let him single in the 2nd inning with 2 to 3 batters after him trying to get him home. Albert is not the protected, he is the Protector!
Albert with runners in scoring position and 2 outs (2006-2008) looks like this: .350/.572/.732/1.304. Who’s going to be better than that? What about leadoff for the same time frame? .371/.423/.709/1.132 Again, who’s better?
If you bat Pujols 5th, won’t we just begin asking who bats 5th. You still have to have someone behind him that perevents the oponent from walking him, or makes them pay.
Oops. If we bat Pujols 4th not 5th. Not to mention prevents not perevents.
Jim,
It’s true that people might ask that question, but who bats 5th isn’t nearly as important as 4th. Extra traffic on the bases will make it easier for the other players to bat in the 5th spot. I’m much more comfortable with Ankiel/Molina/anyone batting with 2 on than 1 or none on. Therefore, if pitchers start giving Pujols the “Bonds” treatment, it’s even more important to bat him cleanup. 1) because his “protector” will have more RBI opportunities, and 2) because the “Bonds” treatment leads to more productive ABs from Pujols (see Bonds and McGwire). My contention with Bonds and McGwire was always that the pitch-arounds actually made them more dangerous. My theory is that aiming a pitch just off the plate means it either misses over the plate or way off it which makes the hitter’s decision to swing an easy one. Therefore the hitter is now swinging at a higher percentage of hittable pitches which will increase his production, including walks (from reducing swings at unhittable pitches).