TOWER GROVE — What Hall of Fame baseball writer Rick Hummel wrote earlier this week about the National League Central being a logjam in the standings is even more true to today.
A win last night at Miller Park against the St. Louis Cardinals put those pitching-poor Milwaukee Brewers — OK, so those were “deputy” GM Ryan Braun’s exact words — within a game of the division leaders. This afternoon the top teams in the NL Central meet again in the rubber game of the three-game series. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds and even those second-half surge-y Houston Astros are lurking. Five of the six teams in the division are within 3 1/2 games of the lead. All of the teams’ two losses are within two games of each other — from the Cardinals’ 40 to the Astros and Reds with 42.
Run differential is another way to look at a team’s chances for long-term success — that’s one of many reasons why, say, Tampa Bay couldn’t be disregarded when it was playing less than .500 ball, because its run differential was so good (the Rays led the AL with a +78). The LA Dodgers lead the majors with a run differential of nearly 100 runs. The NL Central standings are bunched up now, but the run-differential rankings aren’t, and that’s where we begin today’s 10@10 …
1. If we reorganized the NL Central standings based on run differential a sixth team actually enters the fray. At 38-47, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 7 1/2 games back and seemingly settled into their annual run for last place. Heck, they traded their best player weeks ago. But they score well in run differential, and maybe there’s a hint there to how the Pirates are finally improving. Here is what the division would look like if ranked by run differential: 1) Cardinals +24 … 2) Milwaukee +3 … 3) Chicago Cubs +2 … 4) Pittsburgh -6 … 5) Houston … -29 … 6) Cincinnati -43. … Of course, the Philadelphia Phillies are to blame for much of Cincy’s run/diff troubles.
2. That leads to today’s question, a fitting one considering the Cardinals are on a 10-game road trip against three of the teams within striking distance of their division lead. After this afternoon’s series-deciding game against Milwaukee, the Cardinals have only a four-game series at Wrigley between them and the All-Star break. The poll:
3. Asked Kyle Lohse the other day in Memphis if he expected to be the Johnny Appleseed of facial hair, spreading the power of the ‘Stache around to the minor-league rotations in the Cardinals’ system. He said it was probably enough that he kept his mustache going while on rehab assignment — a show of follicle solidarity with his fellow big-league starters. As Joe Strauss, the Cardinals’ beat pit boss, wrote this morning — the upper-lip fuzz is working. Before Todd Wellemeyer took the mound last night, the rotation had a 2.06 ERA with its mustaches. Wellemeyer’s four-inning outing added more than 1/2 run to the ‘Stache ERA. It’s now 2.64. Truth be told: The starters are late to the facial-hair party. Rick Ankiel sported a beard during Spring Training and christened the team “The Bearded ‘Birds.” He sculpted it into a Zorro-movie mustache during his hottest streak of the season, and relievers such as Ryan Franklin (now the All-Star “chin-chilla”) and Jason Motte have had fun with the topiary growing on their chins all season.
4. It began with a three-hit game on June 8 and it continued Wednesday with another three-hit game. Scott Rolen takes a 25-game hit streak going into Toronto’s game today at Tampa Bay. Rolen has elevated his average from .294 to .330 during the streak, going 41-for-104 (.390). Of his 41 hits, 13 have been for extra bases, including three home runs. He’s driven in 16 runs. With a hit today he’ll tie John Olerud and Shannon Stewart for the second-long streaks in Blue Jays history. The longest, according to MLB.com this morning, is 28. Rolen told MLB.com:
“I’ve been able to just be consistent,” Rolen said this week. “I’ve always tried to stay with a process and approach, instead of a result-oriented philosophy of hitting. I go up there and I want to have a good at-bat. I want to put a good swing on a strike and leave it at that and see what happens.”
Rolen is the second third baseman with a hitting streak of 25 games or more this season. According to Elias, Ryan Zimmerman (the Next Scott Rolen, remember) and Rolen are the first two third basemen in major-league history to have hit streaks that long in the same season.
5. Speaking of Elias. The Sports Bureau pointed out yesterday that July 8 was the 15th anniversary of Alex Rodriguz’s major-league debut. In his first 15 years of big-league ball, Rodriguez has hit 567 home runs. Only one player had more home runs on the 15th anniversary of his major-league debut: Mark McGwire. Big Red had 576, then Rodriguez’s 567, Sammy Sosa’s 549 and Mike Schmidt’s 524. The 15th anniversary of Albert Pujols’ major-league debut will be April 2, 2016. Opening Day that year, barring a World Baseball Classic or an Ice Age, will likely be April 4. So, he’ll reach his 15th anniversary with his total home runs from the first 15 full seasons. Say, he doesn’t hit another home run this season — his last was the 350th of his career — and say his pace slows so that over the next six seasons he only duplicates his first six seasons. Take all of that, and the total Pujols will have on the 15th anniversary of his debut … 600.
6. Today’s report from the CUBS IN CHAOS desk: The Cubs are 20-27 and in their previous 47 games, giving them the third-worst record in the NL since May 17. Yet, they are only three games out in the division. More alarming for the Cubs are two injuries. Catcher Geovany Soto has a left oblique strain, but at least he got his injury traditionally, by playing. Pitcher Ryan Dempster fractured his toe trying to leap over the dugout railing to celebrate one of those 20 wins. Demspter (dugout) rail, joins a list of wacky Cubs injuries from recent seasons: Sammy Sosa (sneeze), Kerry Wood (hot tub), Alfonso Soriano (hop) and Carlos Zambrano (email). The Chicago Tribune offers up a slide show of the oddest of Cubs’ injuries.
7. Trevor Hoffman’s intentional walk of Pujols in the ninth last night was the Cardinals first baseman’s 31st of the season. He’s four shy of tying the franchise record he set last season for an entire season. The Cardinals’ media relations staff points out that only Barry Bonds has had more intentional walks before the All-Star break, and in five different seasons he had more than Pujols’ 31 by the break. (In 2004, Bonds had 71 intentional walks at this time.) Since 1955, the only other player with at least 26 intentional walks before the break was Willie McCovey who had 26 in 1970.
8. FARMNIK REPORT: Outfielder Jon Jay, his hands calm before he swings, went 3-for-6 with three RBIs in Memphis’ 10-inning loss to the Isotopes. He scored two runs and one of his hits was a double. Catcher Matt Pagnozzi, making the most of his increased playing time, went 2-for-3 with two runs scored and two walks. The best defensive catcher in the system is batting .240 this season. … Wallace homered, his sixth in Class AAA. … Adron Chambers went 3-for-4 with three runs scored from the leadoff spot for Palm Beach. Curt Smith also had three hits and drove in three runs for the High-A affiliate in a 9-8 loss. Lefty Nick Additon was thumped for six runs (five earned) in four innings. He allowed six hits and walked three. … Niko Vasquez, demoted to Batavia to slingshot his confidence, started at third base and went 3-for-4 with the short-season Muckdogs. He drove in three runs. Vasquez was a high-profile draft pick a year ago, a prep standout from Las Vegas who played shortstop but had the kind of developing power that made him a sleeper for the Prospectarati. Vasquez struggled in Quad Cities with a .197 average and 58 strikeouts in 208 at-bats. Down a level, he’s 12-for-60 so far in Batavia and has just 10 extra-base hits total this season in 268 at-bats.
9. Mark Learman, a member of the Post-Dispatch’s News Research Dept., discovered this nugget about the Home Run Derby, which will be held Monday at Busch Stadium. Ryan Howard’s participation in the derby means this is the sixth consecutive season a Philadelphia Phillies slugger will compete. Jim Thome did in 2004, Bobby Abreu put on a show in 2005 at Detroit, Howard in 2006, 2007 and the Chase Utley last year at Yankee Stadium.
10. In the current issue of Sports Illustrated – the annual Where Are They Now? issue (Hey! LSU great Billy Cannon, a dentist!) — Bill James, the baseball “oracle”, considers Albert Pujols as the Perfect Player. The article has a lot going for it: James’ ability to plumb a baseball question, Joe Posnanski’s ability to write baseball and all of it framed around Pujols’ ability to play baseball. But what struck me was James argument that a “perfect career” must have a Hall of Fame-caliber season “every single year.” Interesting. Look at Pujols’ career lows:
.314 BA (2002), 32 HR (2007), 103 RBI (2007), .561 SLG (2002) … and so on
Consider then how those numbers would have ranked fifth, 13th, 12th and fifth, respectively, in the National League in 2008. That gives you a sense of why James took what he viewed as Pujols’ softest year, relatively, and said in the article Pujols would “have to repeat his weakest season (2002) 11 times to make the Hall of Fame.”
Eleven? It takes 10 years of service time to even be eligible for the Hall of Fame.
-30-