DG’s 10@10: An Audit at the Actual Midpoint
TOWER GROVE — The accepted halfway spot of the Major League Baseball season is the midsummer classic, the All-Star Game, but for the St. Louis Cardinals the mathematical midpoint of the year came sometime during the flight to Cincinnati on Thursday night.
The Cardinals are the first National League team to complete 81 games, and they arrive at Game No. 82 tonight at Great American Ball Park in a virtual tie for the lead in the National League Central. At 43-38 they are percentage points behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals +11 run differential — a strong indicator of a team’s ability to contend — is the best of any team in the division. In the league, only three teams in the NL West are better, topped by the Los Angeles Dodgers’ +84. The Chicago Cubs, for comparison, are a +6.
“It is?” manager Tony La Russa said when asked if the halfway point of the season did anything to his pulse. “It’s not something for me.”
The manager looks at the season in chunks of games than halves of seasons, and he judges his team’s progress by the ability to get 10 games, 15 games, 20 games and so on above .500. The Cardinals are +5 above .500. They reached the mile marker of +10 on May 1 at 17-7 and three times since they’ve had the chance to get back to +10 again and lost. La Russa uses the gap between his team’s record and a .500 record as a measure of if the team is “good” or “real good”, in his parlance. Or, put another way, if it’s capable of contending or pulling away from the pack. There is some sense that if the Cardinals had a few more runs here or there they would be the latter — pulling away from the pack — but are instead the former, treading in contention.
There are a number of ways to audit or the consider the first half of the Cardinals’ regular season, and that’s where today’s 10@10 begins, the final 10@10 before the All-Star team is announced:
1. Media magnate Bernie Miklasz has made the point repeatedly about how the outfield has been the most disappointing part of the Cardinals offense. A year ago, it was the teams’ strength, the complement to Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus and the reason why the Cardinals had the fourth-most runs in the game. This season, the outfielders are hitting a combined .247 with a .413 slugging percentage. Neither ranks in the upper half of the National League. But how does that compare to the rest of the team, or the team as a whole. Here is the breakdown and NL rankings of the Cardinals’ lineup after Game 81:
TEAM BATTING … 353 runs (6th) … 331 RBI (6th) … 83 HR (4th) … 262 W (13th)/419 Ks(13th)
TEAM BATTING … .254 BA (12th) … .324 OBP (11th) … .411 (4th) … .735 OPS (7th)
W/0 PUJOLS … .245 BA … .307 OBP … .375 SLG
CLEANUP … .224 (16th) … .301 OBP (16th) … .391 SLG (15th)
SCORING POS. … .258 (8th) … .354 OBP (7th) … .387 (9th)
2. In the past two games, the two wins that forced a split of the series with San Francisco, Cardinals starters have pitched their best games of the season. Adam Wainwright crafted a nine-inning, 12-strikeout gem on Wednesday night, and Todd Wellemeyer followed with a well-balanced and season-high 7 1/3 innings for the win on Thursday. Pitching, specifically the pitching of Ryan Franklin and the bullpen, has been a bedrock for the Cardinals this season. The Cardinals lead the NL with a K/BB ratio of 2.18, and — no surprise here — the 924 groundouts the staff has coaxed is nearly 50 more than any other team in the league. A quick perusal of the pitching staff’s first-half numbers:
PITCHING … 3.86 ERA (5th) … 22 sv (5th) … .254 BAA (6th) … 233 BB (16th) … 507 K (t12th)
STARTERS … 33 wins (2nd) … 37 quality starts (t11th) … .265 BAA (10th)
STARTERS … 3.85 ERA (5th) … 144 walks (15th) … 329 K (13th)
RELIEVERS … 10 wins (10th) … 225 IP (12th, fifth fewest) … .231 BAA (4th)
RELIEVERS … 3.92 ERA (7th) … 89 walks (15th) … 178 K (12th)
3. The midpoint of the season inspired a poll suggested by Jimmy Mustion (via the Twitter feed @dgoold):
Loading …4. Fascinating story and presentation on ESPN.com about the letters Lou Gehrig wrote after his retirement from baseball. The Outside the Lines project, “Sincerely, Lou” allows you to page through the letters. At one point Gehrig refers to himself as a the “New York pest” and how plans to “hold on as long as possible” before accepting the end “philosophically.”
5. Albert Pujols reached base safely in eight consecutive plate appearances before striking out against Barry Zito on Thursday night, but he still found a way to get two intentional walks from San Francisco in the game. Pujols has reached base in 14 consecutive games. The other night (Wednesday) he went 2-for-2 with two intentional walks and a stolen base. It’s the first time a player has had that combination since 2007 when David Wright did it, and it is only the 70th time someone has done the 2/2, 2 IBB, SB combination since 1954. The last Cardinal to do it was outfielder Ray Lankford in 1992, and he was the first to do it since 1954, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
6. Busch Stadium is starting to get dressed for the All-Star Game. Large banners for the 80th playing of the midsummer classic are draped around the ballpark, and a massive skirt with the All-Star Game script logo has been attached to the Musial Bridge that is over Gate 3. The Cardinals begin a 10-game road trip tonight, the longest of the season, and it gets them away from the ballpark so preparations — like getting the clubhouses ready for the two Futures Games teams and the All-Stars — can be completed.
7. FARMNIK REPORT: Texas League All-Star and Cardinals minor-league breakout player Daniel Descalso was promoted to Class AAA on Thursday night. Descalso led the Texas League in total bases while playing second base for Springfield. … Brett Wallace’s hitting streak ends after 15 games with an 0-for-3 on Thursday for Memphis. … Brian Barden was the first fielder the Cardinals asked about earlier this week when looking for DeRosa Insurance, but Barden is dealing with a sore wrist as well. … Nick Stavinoha hit his ninth home run in the 3-2 loss to the Isotopes. … Redbirds were 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position. … Evan MacLane allowed three runs (none earned) and eight hits in his six innings. … Curt Smith homered and drove in three runs during his 2-for-4 day and Palm Beach’s 9-6 victory. Colt Sedbrook also homered and drove in three runs form the leadoff spot for the High-A affiliate. … Matt Carpenter went 3-for-4 in his Quad Cities debut. So far the Cardinals 2009 draft pick out of TCU is 18-for-36 as a pro, batting .500 and slugging .639 in his first 10 games. … Batavia swept a doubleheader against Jamestown, but one game was a continuation of a lost game, meaning the box score will show Carpenter playing third and going 0-for-1 with a walk. In Game 2, leadoff hitter D’Marcus Ingram drove in three runs on two hits, including a triple. … Robert Stock, the Cardinals’ second-round pick in the most recent draft, hit his first pro homer. He went 2-for-3 with two runs scored and two RBIs. He’s batting .364 so far this season.
8. Could it be just a coincidence? Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak (who can be seen here on the video talking about signing Wagner Mateo) said the trade for Mark DeRosa heated up a week ago today, and that he called his counterpart in Cleveland because it was “clear he wanted to do something by the end of the weekend.” Well, who were the Indians playing last weekend? Cincinnati. Who was aggressively trying to work out a trade for DeRosa? Cincinnati. Mozeliak’s mentor, Reds GM Walt Jocketty, has since spoken candidly about his team’s attempt to land the versatile veteran, and there’s even rumblings that he believes what he offered was better than the Cardinals’ package of Chris Perez and a PTBNL. (Not a surprise. Jocketty didn’t hide his opinions of the Cardinals’ farm system when he was in charge of the Cardinals.) It could just have been timing, could just have been a coincidence but as one Cardinals exec said recently “being in the same place always seems to be an advantage.” From our CUBS IN … CATCHUP desk, the Chicago Nationals added their DeRosa on Thursday, trading for Colorado Rockies utility fielder Jeff Baker.
9. Loyal reader Frank Fuhrig posed an interesting question in an email yesterday. He wondered if Adam Wainwright could have pitched through 10 innings on Wednesday night — probably not, he’d thrown a season-high 122 pitches — and Fuhrig asked when was the last time a Cardinals pitcher threw 10 innings. The answer: Easy. Mark Mulder against Roger Clemens back at the old place in April 2005. Mulder was the first Cardinal starter to pitch 10 innings since Jose DeLeon did in 1989. Current Cardinals analyst Cal Eldred threw 10 innings for Milwaukee in a 7-2 victory in August 1993. Toronto starter Roy Halladay has thrown 10 innings a start twice since 2003. The Cardinals have been involved in five 10-inning starts since 1993, starting with two 10-inning starts against them in the span of a few weeks:
- Mark Mulder … 10 innings … vs. Houston … April 2005 … W
- Kevin Millwood … 10 innings … for Atlanta vs. STL … August 1999 … ND (team won)
- Bobby Jones … 10 innings … for NY Mets vs. STL … Sept. 1993 … ND (team won)
- Terry Mulholland … 10 innings … for Philadelphia vs. STL … May 1993 … ND (team won)
- Greg Maddux … 10 innings … for Atlanta vs. STL … April 1993 … ND (team won)
10. La Russa finished tidying up his office Thursday because the next manager who uses it will be Charlie Manuel, the Phillies manager who will skipper the National League team at the All-Star Game. Out of courtesy, La Russa will move to the coaches’ room for the event. One of the last things La Russa did was find a place for a package he received recently from Hall of Fame manager Tommy Lasorda. It contained a jockey’s horse whip and accompanying it was a letter that encouraged La Russa to know when to “go to the whip.”
“He’s been telling me that for years,” La Russa said.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I voted for other. I think the Ryan Ludwick finding his stroke and hitting .312 with 19 HR’s, 52 RBI’s, and a .547 slg% will have the biggest impact.
Danny Cox pitched 10 shutout innings for his major league debut in 1983. Even more interesting is that we ended up losing that game 1-0.
What struck me as interesting is that we have been running with a 13 man bullpen, yet are only 12th in innings pitched from the group. My first instinct is that this is a point against the roster management, but maybe that’s my personal bias shining through. Is this a case where they saw guys like McClellan wearing down last year, and are going this route to keep arms fresh into September?
On the subject of pitching 10 innings, I was at Shea Stadium back on Sept. 11, 1985 the night John Tudor went up against Dwight Gooden. 0-0 after 9 innings and Pond Scum brought in Jesse Orosco. Cesar Cedeno hit a solo homer and Tudor struck out “Daaaaaarrrrrryyyll” Strawberry to end it in 10. 1-0, Tudor 10 inning complete game shut-out, similar to Mulder in 05.
Before the season started I suggested that the outfield was the Cardinals weakest link and any additions available such as “Dunn” or any other low hanging fruit might be necessary. I was laughed at in the blogs. I also said they’d be out of the race by the break due to the large amount of rookies. I gotta eat it on that one,… they are a scrapy bunch if nothing else.
Tony and the whip,..I wonder if he needs a new one every week seeing how the season has gone with all the ups and downs.
Always liked Mr. Lasorda seeing how he was kind enough to take the time to have a 10 minute conversation with me. Learned alot in 10 minutes.
DG, just curious was the Cards road trip before the break by design to get ready for the ASG or did it just fall that way?
I agree that Ludwick will be the biggest difference maker in the second half, followed by Lohse. I am hopeful on DeRosa, but it is hard to count on hitters with injured wrists.
DG, when you say the Cardinals pitchers are 16th in BBs that means the lowest number of BBs, right? I would call that first…
Other - its kinda obvious but it will be #5. We live and die by Albert Pujols’ bat and it will be no different in the second half. If you want to know who be be the biggest compliment that will be the ability of the starting pitchers to pitch quality starts.
I agree with Jim-Ludwick is the key to the second half
I voted for “other” & I feel like the biggest impact will be how the Cardinals pitching staff manages to eat the innings the rest of the way. If the starting rotation & the AAA starter/long relievers keep a bulk of the innings off of the heart of the bullpen, this club can find its batting stroke & fight through the month of September. If the back end of the rotation has too many 5 IP starts, it will start to add up & blow out late like it did last year.
Look at MLB standings. A horde of .500 teams. Baseball has crashed into a sea of mediocrity. Where’s the real excitement when limp noodle teams like these get into “play-offs” with other similar teams.
Baseball needs to down size. Lose 2-4 franchises, consolidate 3 divisions into 2 at most, allow the real season’s winners to play each other for a championship. Shorten the damn season, no World Series at Holloween, but in September, Indian Summer. The reward of playing well and surviving the summer should belong to the BEST teams.
Heck, I’m even for going back to one division in each league. Let the Dodgers and Red Sox have at it. As of now, they are the only ones who deserve it.
Other- Ludwick’s second half
Good call on Ryan Ludwick and his importance for the second half. Yes, the 16th ranking for walks means the Cardinals have the lowest in the NL. The 16 was used to keep it it related to the strikeout ranking.
Who will have the biggest impact on the Cardinals in the second half? “other”
Starting pitchers,.. they have to hold on for as long as possible till the bats sing again.
if tony gives him the chance, colby rasmus will be the biggest influence on the team in the second half. he will come into his own and win rookie of the year.
Hey DMONY, I was at that game too. Great season to be Cardinals fan. Totally unexpected. After losing Sutter everyone was picking them for last. Whitey did a great job mixing and matching with the pen. They were sure fun to watch.
Voted for Glaus because IF he can come back (admittedly a big if), he’s the only player the Cards can look to for legitimate protection for Albert.
My vote for biggest impact is getting rid of Joe Thurston and/or Chris Duncan. These guys aren’t major league players. Duncan’s defense has improved a little over last year but he’s still awful at the plate except for the 10-15 times the pitcher hits his bat right in the center. Thurston is the worst baserunner the Cards have had for at least 25 years. His defense is worse than Duncan’s and he’d totally useless at the plate with runners in scoring position. Thurston may be the best argument for bringing up Brett Wallace even though I think he probably needs more seasoning at AAA.
I voted other for Pujols, or was that supposed to just be a given. Otherwise I say Ludwick.
“It is?” manager Tony La Russa said when asked if the halfway point of the season did anything to his pulse. “It’s not something for me.”
Is it maddening to interview Tony LaRussa? He speaks in incomplete sentences (not here), misdirects pronouns and changes his verb tense as easily as breathing. It drives me up a tree, and I’m just readin’ it. Not a comment on his managing. Just what it was.
Joe Torre might have been the most grammatically correct manager in recent Cardinal history. Whitey was the most profane and surely the most interesting.
If TLR will wake up and play him everyday, Rasmus’ continued development as a major league hitter will be the biggest impact. His speed in front of Pujols will really help this lineup.
I agree with several here, as I too selected “Other” for more consistent punch from Ludwick, which seems to have been coming around lately…
“The other night (Wednesday) he went 2-for-2 with two intentional walks and a stolen base. It’s the first time a player has had that combination since 2007 when David Wright did it, and it is only the 70th time someone has done the 2/2, 2 IBB, SB combination since 1954. The last Cardinal to do it was outfielder Ray Lankford in 1992, and he was the first to do it since 1954, according to Baseball-Reference.com.”
What’s more pathetic? The fact that there’s a stat for this? Or the fact that you took the time to look it up?
You need a vacation.
DG,
I just noticed that there are now 5 guys in the .330+ career BA, 350 career HRs:
Babe Ruth
Lou Gehrig
Ted Williams
Stan Musial
Albert Pujols
Pretty good company.
I voted “other” as well. I think Rasmus being the everyday CF and protecting Albert will have the biggest impact.
I agree with JimH. Ryan Ludwick will return and give us numbers that suggest last year was no fluke.
The production from Ludwick or lack there of will be the biggest factor for the second half. The health of carpenter and loshe will be big on the other end.