DG’s 10@10: Smoltz Attempts to Pull a Lugo
TOWER GROVE — Having already added an All-Star elite bat, a grinder third baseman and a second-chance middle infielder to his executive-of-the-year bid, St. Louis Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak is poised this afternoon to add a future Hall of Famer to the club’s pitching staff. Righthander John Smoltz is expected to finalize a deal with the Cardinals if he clears waivers by noon today, Post-Dispatch baseball scribe Joe Strauss was the first to report last night on this newspaper’s web site.
Strauss writes that Smoltz, 42, will first be used as the Cardinals’ fifth starter, and he will be the second player the Cardinals have picked up after the Boston Red Sox have designated them for assignment. The previous one has worked out well enough.
Time to see if Smoltz can pull a Julio Lugo.
Lugo was DFA’d by Boston before a trade to St. Louis that includes the Red Sox picking up all but the slimmest portion of his salary. Lugo has since hit .343 with a .567 slugging percentage. Smoltz should have such a revival. Smoltz returned from labrum surgery to score an incentive-laden deal with the Red Sox this season. Things did not go as planned. The righthander struggled to an 2-5 record with an 8.33 ERA. He walked only nine against 33 strikeouts, but he gave 25 earned runs in his final four starts for Boston, including eight in a big-stage wheeze against the New York Yankees. Opponents, overall, hit .343 against him and slugged .587 this season — meaning he roughly turned every hitter he faced into Hanley Ramirez (.359 BA, .572 SLG).
“Time may not be on my side if this continues,” Smoltz told reporters after his 3 1/3 innings at Yankee Stadium. “Pretty humbled right now with the way things have gone. I never liked to use the word embarrassed, but I have a lot of pride and certainly don’t like letting somebody down.”
Scouting Smoltz, seeing if the Cardinals are adding more than just a seasoned, October veteran presence, and finding the way he fits with the Cardinals is the timely way to start today’s 10@10 …
1. The above batting average and slugging percentage is a tad misleading because Ramirez is a righthanded hitter and if there is any kind of hitter Smoltz has done well against it’s the righthanded hitter. Smoltz has held righties to a .232 batting average, a .259 on-base percentage and a .390 slugging percentage. RHBs have had 85 plate appearances against him, and he’s struck out 21 of them. One reason: He throws more sliders to them. Since coming back from injury, his fastball hasn’t been as sharp, according to stats available at FanGraphs. His fastball is slightly slower but much more ineffective, clocking in at minus-16.1 below average. His slider, however, has remained close to his career average. A quick check of Smoltz’s pitch-type breakdown shows that 48 percent of the pitches he’s thrown to righthanded batters are sliders. To lefties, he leans more on his fastball. It’s a chicken-egg stat, but it illustrates where he has to improve to be effective as a starter — or why the initial thought was to use him in the bullpen and why he could be a weapon against righthanded hitters.
2. The Cardinals may not say it, but any of their fine-tuning — like the addition of a veteran arm — has to be done with an eye on October. Smoltz’s role is TBD should the team score a berth in the playoffs, but he brings a lot of postseason savvy to the team (15 wins) and ample NL experience. Here is how Smoltz has fared in his career against several of this year’s October contenders in the NL, and the ballparks the Cardinals could be playing in the postseason:
vs. PHILADELPHIA … 64 g/35 s … 13-13, 11 saves … 3.67 ERA … .234 BAA
@Citizens Bank … 12 g/6 s … 1-2, 1 save … 4.06 ERA … .261 BAA
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vs. LA DODGERS … 47 g/36 s … 16-14, 6 saves … 2.86 ERA … .242 BAA
@Dodger Stadium … 25 g/21 s … 8-10, 3 saves … 3.52 ERA … .255 BAA
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vs. SAN FRANCISCO … 47 g/38 s … 12-15, 3 saves … 4.12 ERA … .241 BAA
@AT&T Park … 8 g/3 s … 2-0, 1 saves … 2.79 ERA … .238 BAA
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vs. COLORADO … 32 g/18 s … 11-5, 9 saves … 3.59 ERA … .259 BAA
@Coors Field … 14 g/7 s … 3-2, 3 saves … 4.20 ERA … .306 BAA
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vs. CHICAGO CUBS … 39 g/29 s … 15-5, 8 saves … 3.33 ERA … .220 BAA
@Wrigley Field … 19 g/14 s … 6-3, 4 saves … 3.25 ERA … .201 BAA
3. It’s a natural hat trick of Smoltz to start today’s 10@10, as his addition to the Cardinals and his potential role for the Cardinals inspires this entry’s poll:
4. While working on the quick story about his leg kick, I asked Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday this past weekend how his family was adjusting to St. Louis. He said they’re eager to move out of the hotel room and into a place to call home, however temporarily. He also said his oldest son will begin kindegarten here in St. Louis, and after the season ends they’ll assess where to go next. Holliday rented a place in California last year, but is thinking about going back to Austin — where he’ll neighbor with Ryan Ludwick — for this offseason. Holliday gives a rundown of his early impressions and family time in St. Louis in his latest blog entry over at Matt’s Blog.
5. After the most recent update of Albert Pujols’ standings in the Decade Triple Crown categories, I received several questions about where he stands in the National League, because, after all, that is the Decade Triple Crown that Rogers Hornsby won back in the 1920s. One of the reasons why I didn’t go with where Pujols ranks in the NL since 2001 is … well, you’ll see for yourself. Pujols leads the NL in homers since 2001 with 358. Second-best? Adam Dunn with 309. Pujols leads the NL with 1,082 RBIs since 2001. Second-best? Lance Berkman with 936. Pujols also leads the NL with a .333 batting average since 2001. Second-best? Todd Helton with his .325. That ought to answer the question about why I went with Pujols and his overall, MLB lead in the Triple Crown stats since making his big-league debut at Coors Field.
6. One of the reasons the Cardinals have had success against the Dodgers this season is their ability to stymie Manny Ramirez. Look at how rookie Mitchell Boggs tied up the All-Star slugger with an inside fastball last night and see how it’s a continuation of a season of success against the righthanded hitter. Only Florida has had better success against him this season. Ramirez got his first RBI against the Cardinals on Tuesday, and here is how the MVP of the 2004 World Series has done in his career vs. how he’s done this season against the Cardinals:
Career … 22 gms … 23 H … 5 HR,10 XB … 22 BBs, 18 Ks … .307/.464/.573
2009 … 6 gms … 4 H … 0 HR, 2 XB … 5 BBs, 8 Ks … .160/.300/.240
7. FARMNIK REPORT: Troy Glaus hit the first home run of his rehab assignment. He went 1-for-4 with the solo shot while starting at third base for Triple-A Memphis. … Lost in a 14-1 thumping by Peoria, Low-A Quad Cities had a pitcher set a season-high with an impressive run of strikeouts. Scott Schneider struck out nine, a season-high for any QC pitcher, and at one point he struck out seven consecutive. The righthander allowed four runs (one earned) on four hits in his six innings. He took the loss. Relievers made it a rout. Three relievers, including converted catcher David Carpenter, allowed 10 runs (all earned). … All of the Cardinals affiliates that played Tuesday lost. … Memphis remains in the hunt for a playoff bid for the time since Albert Pujols was a revelation there, though the Redbirds lost to Fresno, 5-3. David Freese sweetened his September-callup bid with another two-hit game. Freese homered and drove in two runs. He takes a six-game hitting streak into the next game, and during the streak he is 7-for-18 (.389) with three homers and six RBIs. … Down in Johnson City, shortstop Yunier Castillo put his average at .271 this season with his second home run of the summer.
8. Two incredible notes from today’s Elias Says over at ESPN.com: Adding lumber to the ongoing debate about just who is the American League’s MVP, Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer went 3-for-5 with his 24th and 25th home runs of the season. His average rose to .383. The last four players in the AL to have 25 homers and a .380 average this late into the season were Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig and Ted Williams, the last to do so, in 1957. … One former Cardinal second baseman became the first to do something since another former Cardinal second baseman did it in 1999. Adam Kennedy struck out four times three days after going 5-for-5 for Oakland. He is the first player to have such a hairpin turn in production since Mark Grudzielanek pulled the same five-hit to “golden sombrero” whiplash in 1999.
9. For the record, Jose Oquendo frustrated Smoltz. The Cardinals third-base coach hit .304 in his career against the righthander. Oquendo was 7-for-23 with six walks against two strikeouts in his plate appearances against Smoltz, putting together a slash line of .304/.448/.304.
10. Brendan Ryan, an LA-area native and rabid Dodgers fan as a kid, is a .333 hitter against his boyhood ballclub with a .593 slugging percentage. At Dodger Stadium he’s only 2-for-10 in four games. Bringing that up just as a clunky segue to describe the latest wrinkle he’s introduced to his pre-game infield circus. In an earlier 10@10, I described how he likes to charge the ball from third base and whip the throw between his legs to first base. Before the last game at Busch Stadium, Ryan had a new trick going. Ryan, again at third base, asked for coach Joe Pettini to chop him a high-bounder — a Baltimore Chop, if you will.
Ryan would then charge the high-hop.
He fielded the ball with his glove, between his legs.
After a quick-flip transfer to his throwing, Ryan then fired to first base … behind his back.
Cue the calliope.
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And don’t forget Strauss will be reminiscing about a reunion with Smoltz and taking your gratitude for his story this morning during his weekly festival of self-promotion, snark and insight — JSL!!!!! Goes Hollywood. Word is he’ll be doing it live from the glass-enclosed offices of Miller Gold. Bring extra exclamation points.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
DG,
Can we get some video of these Ryan acrobatics? That would be cool to see.
Thanks!
“Acrobatics” is an appropriate descriptor for Ryan inasmuch as La Russa has used Ryan’s name in a sentence that also include Ozzie Smith.
I agree - get someone out there with a flip video or something. Couple years ago I saw during BP an outfielder shagging fly balls between his legs and behind his back - it ended up being Backe… a pitcher.?!
I’m on to your evil plot to bring back video to 10@10. You keep teasing us about Ryan and his spectacular plays and have the masses begging for it’s return.
Nice stats with Oquendo, I still think the best odd ball stat of the current Birds is Rick Ankiel’s with Barry Bonds. Faced him 3 times and K’d him 3 times.
You know Gibson’s last pitch in his major league career was turned on and the hitter (Pete LaCock) hit a grand slam off of him. It is hard for the great ones to hang up the cleats, but maybe that is where Smoltz needs to head. Hope this works for all, but one does wonder.
Great background on Smoltz DG. I like the addition of how Secret Weapon did against him. Any idea how well Brock did against him? (Okay maybe that wasn’t nice.)
Does anyone know the opportunities that we’ll have for a fifth starter during August? Or if there are opportunities for bullpen use between those starts? Will be hard to evaluate the guy for the October bullpen (which has to be finalized by month end August) if he is only used as a one time spot starter. Otherwise the team is relying on his, albeit formidable, history as a reliever.
Of course one might answer that it is better to trot out Smoltz reputation than any of our current arms.
Maybe I’ll have to try and backdoor my way into the park early so I can catch some of Ryan’s tricks.
It’ll be interesting to see if Smoltz signs and what they do with him. I wouldn’t be opposed to floating him between the bullpen and fill in starter. Motte will come around and occupy the 8th inning eventually.
Joepa:
If Tony works it right the #5 starter may be needed 5 more times.
Why don’t we ever see any video proof of all these Brendan Ryan feats we so often hear about? Someone has to have the media know-how to provide us with it?!?!?
Those Ryan tricks during infield practice would be an EXCELLENT use of blog video. Hint, hint.