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08.18.2009 10:20 am

DG’s 10@10: The Saving Bullets Theory

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — A few seasons ago, the St. Louis Cardinals veteran relievers Russ Springer, Ryan Franklin and Jason Isringhausen presented what one of them called a save-your-bullets approach to spring training. The theory, as Springer explained, was their high-mileage arms had only so many throws left, why waste those precious “bullets” on live batting practice or exhibition baseball when there was a whole season ahead of them?

The fewer throws they made in March, the more they had for September. That kind of thing.

This season, as he has reinvented himself as a 30-save closer, Franklin has taken that practice into the regular season. Monday night was an example of the extreme.

That’s where today’s 10@10 begins …

1. In relief of starter Chris Carpenter, Franklin and lefty Trever Miller threw a total of four pitches to get three outs. Miller got the first out of the ninth on his only pitch. Franklin collected his 30th save of the season with three pitches. It is his second three-pitch save in 11 days, his third of the season and the fourth time this year that he’s cinched the save with three or fewer pitches. Back in May, Franklin had a two-pitch save against the Cubs.

This past week, I asked Franklin if pitch count matters. Often a relievers level of exhaustion is monitored by how many appearances, packed into how many days, that resulted in how many innings. But pitches matter, too. The question posed to Franklin was whether expedient saves kept him fresher or more available, or if warmup tosses were the great equalizer. “It depends on the person,” Franklin said. “If you’ve got a guy who can do it and can handle it, it can help. If you go out there and throw 15 or so, then you should be fine for the next day. You definitely want to get in there and get out of there in the fewest throws possible. That makes sense for how ready you would be the next day.”

2. In Philadelphia earlier this season, the day after Matt Holliday showed up. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa took a break from the news to retell a familiar story about the making of Dennis Eckersley at Oakland A’s closer. Eck wanted to start, La Russa said. Eck really wanted to start. He told his manager. He lobbied his pitching coach. He once squawked about it famously to the media. La Russa attempted to sell him on the rock-star nature of being a closer, about how he could win the same fame — maybe even more so — and win the team more games as a closer. It was during his conversation that a broadcaster asked if anything about his current closer reminded him of his Hall of Fame closer. La Russa hesitated, and then answered: Economy.

“Eck was 1-2-3 outs in under 5 minutes,” La Russa said. “If you took strike one, it’s over. He’d get three outs in under 10 pitches routinely. If I live another five years beyond what I should, then three of those years are because of the stress relief of having Eck at closer. You’ve got guys on base, one of those situations where you can’t catch your breath, you’re sick, and how many minutes Eck took to clean that up added years to my life.”

3. There are the boundaries. Eck did it in less than 10 pitches “routinely”, according to La Russa, and Franklin said closing out a game in about 15 pitches helps keep a reliever fresh for the days ahead. In 30 saves this season, Franklin is averaging 14.2 pitches per. It’s worth noting that for as many times as he’s had two-out saves like Monday’s, he also has pitched more than an inning for a save seven times this season. That is among the league leaders. For contrast, Isringhausen, during his 47-save season of 2004, had six saves of more than an inning. Here is the breakdown of Isringhausen’s 2004 and Franklin’s 2009 by the number of pitches needed per save:

PITCHES … IZZY ‘04 … FRANKIE ‘09

< 10 … 9 saves … 7 saves

10-20 … 26 saves … 18 saves

21-30 … 11 saves … 5 saves

31-40 … 1 save … 0 save

4. Franklin’s switch from setup man to 30-save closer — which, by the by, now leads the NL — is one of many pivotal transformations for the Cardinals this season. The mustache phase passed. The late-game rallies is a new trait. But the shuffled-up and converted Cards have been true from Day 1. That is the theme of today’s poll.

Which conversion has had the biggest impact on the Cardinals this season?

View Results

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5. With his home run Monday night, Albert Pujols moved into a tie at No. 72 on the all-time career homer list. His 358 career homers match the total for St. Louis native and Hall of Famer Yogi Berra. As friend points out, Berra still leads in another category, 10 to 1. (That is, career World Series rings.) The all-time leader on the career list with a St. Louis tie is Mark McGwire at No. 8 with 583. But there are a host of players who have played for the Cardinals who Pujols is close to hurdling: No. 70 Gary Gaetti, 360 … No. 60 Orlando Cepeda, 379 … No. 56 Jim Edmonds, 382 … No. 55 Larry Walker, 383 … No. 46 Andres Galarraga, 399 … and, then, the franchise’s leader, at No. 28 in the MLB list — Stan Musial, 475.

6. Another Ace-Jack Combo from Monday night’s game. If it seems like Pujols homers every time Carpenter starts, it should. (As Carpenter said last week, Pujols homers when a lot of people pitch.) Pujols has seven homers in Carpenter’s previous 10 starts. How Carpenter has pitched and Pujols has hit in the ace’s previous 16 starts, a span that stretches back to May 30:

Carpenter … 11-3 … 2.72 ERA … 115 2/3 IP … 35 ER … 7 HR … 82 K

Pujols … 16 games … 20-for-62 (.323) … 11 HR … 16 RBI

7. The Cardinals completed the deal with first-overall pick Shelby Miller on Monday afternoon, plenty of time before last night’s 11 p.m. deadline. At the time it was announced, Miller’s $2.875 million deal was the largest yet for a first-rounder, which helps explain why negotiations, per se, took awhile. It’s the announcement that delays them. No team wants to be the one that breaks the commissioner’s precious slot system and skews the scale for the other teams trying to sign their players. It’s a farce. It has to be fixed. The bonus, as mentioned in this morning’s paper, beats the biggest bonus previously given a high-schooler by the Cardinals. Toss in the international signings the Cardinals have made in recent years and here is the all-time top bonuses paid to acquire a prospect:

  • Wagner Mateo, OF, International, 2009 … $3.1 million
  • J.D. Drew, OF, Draft, 1998 … $3 million
  • Shelby Miller, RHP, Draft, 2009 … $2.875 million
  • Rick Ankiel, LHP, Draft, 1997 … $2.5 million
  • Chad Hutchinson, RHP, Draft, 1998 … $2.3 million
  • Brett Wallace, 3B, Draft, 2008 … $1.84 million
  • Shaun Boyd, OF, Draft, 2000 … $1.75 million

8. FARMNIK REPORT: Righthander David Kopp, accomplished minor-league blogger, allowed one run on six innings for the High-A Palm Beach affiliate. He struck out six, walked one and scored his fifth win of the season Monday. … Adam Reifer worked the ninth for his 19th save. … No. 2 hitter Adron Chambers went 2-for-4 with three RBIs in the 6-4 victory. … Allen Craig, starting in left field, hit his 22nd home run of the season for Triple-A Memphis. He drove in three runs to give him 65 this season. With all of this talk about where Miller fits into the top prospect list (leaning more and more to No. 1), it may be a better question where — or how high? — Craig ranks in the 2010 Top 30. … The Redbirds lost, 5-3, in extra innings to the Sacramento Rock River Cats. Matt Scherer took the loss as he allowed two homers in extra innings. One of those two homers was hit by, yes, Brett Wallace. … Second baseman Ted Obregon, a free-agent signing in 2007 from Venezuela, went 3-for-5 with a home run. His homer came in the ninth inning as part of a three-run rally that gave Johnson City a 6-5 victory Monday. Reliever Aaron Terry, from Southern Arkansas University, improved to 6-0 this season. He pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out two and not allowing a hit or a walk. … In his first Class AA start, Chuck Fick pitched five scoreless innings for the S-Cards. He allowed one hit and he struck out one. The S-Cards offered zilch in run support as Corpus Christi won, 2-0. The hit Fick allowed was a double by first baseman Aaron Boone, who is on his rehab assignment, coming back to Houston from heart surgery.

9. The last time the Cardinals were 16 games better than .500 was July 26, 2006, when they had the look of a third consecutive 100-win team. That was the eve of the first of their two eight-game losing streaks that season. The Cardinals were 58-42 when they defeated Colorado on July 26, and the next day Jeff Weaver started against the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals went 25-36 the rest of that season before stirring in October for the World Series run.

10. As written about in the Post-Dispatch last week, one of the stumbling blocks for the Cardinals interest in veteran pitcher John Smoltz was his contract. Smoltz had bonus-dollar landmines littering his contract. For example, Smoltz would have received $35,000 for every day he was on the active roster. If he was on the active roster on the final day of the season, that was worth $500,000 to him. He received another $500,000 bonus if traded. All of that made a move for him cost prohibitive — until now. Since the Boston Red Sox released Smoltz, he can be had for the prorated minimum and all of those bonuses have gone up in smoke. That is why the Cardinals didn’t move sooner on the righthander. … Pujols brings a 12-game hitting streak into tonight’s game. He is hitting .404 (19-for-47) with four homers in the stretch. … Rookie Colby Rasmus has revived his average. Rasmus has four multi-hit games in his previous seven starts. He’s hitting .367 (11-for-30) in that stretch with nine singles.

LAGNIAPPE. Author, denizen of the RF seats at Olympic Stadium, and friend of the blog Jonah Keri offered insight from the sidelines during a recent Twitterfest debate between baseball writers — namely Tyler Kepner of The New York Times and Joe Posnanski, transitioning to Sports Illustrated – about who the American League MVP leader is right now. Kepner wrote Mark Teixeira. Others argued, vehemently, that it is still Joe Mauer. Keri turned his attention to the National League yesterday. He argues that Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and MVP-favorite Albert Pujols all have something in common.

San Francisco ace Tim Lincecum is a challenger to all of their award aspirations.

-30-

24 comments

Comments are closed.

Nice counting. Looks like this is an 11@10. Which sort of makes up for all of the 10@almost 11s, right?

— Derrick Goold
10:25 am August 18th, 2009

You don’t often see the blogger himself chiming in first in comments to take a shot at…himself. Well played, Mr. Goold (and fine read as always).

— Jonah Keri
10:33 am August 18th, 2009

Not only was Franklin economical with the amount of pitches he threw during the bottom of the ninth, he didn’t throw a heck of a lot in the bullpen either, did he?

I recall ESPN saying he was just getting up as Miller threw his first pitch, which was also Miller’s last.

— Pitchers Hit Eighth
10:41 am August 18th, 2009

Wait a second…42-26 on July 26? They’d only played 68 games with 93 to go by the end of July? That date seems off.

— slarrow
10:47 am August 18th, 2009

Mr. Goold,

Worry not, young scribe. An extra 45 minutes for your golden nuggets is easily worth the wait.

Yours at the No. 6 poker table,
JPinSTL

— JPinSTL
10:50 am August 18th, 2009

DGoold,
Any word of any ill effects for Holliday from last night’s stinger off the left foot?

— Henry
10:55 am August 18th, 2009

Slarrow,

Something funky happened when cut/pasting that graf. Not sure. But the numbers got jumbled. They are correct now. Funny how it worked though — the 42 was the losses, the 26 was the date … Odd. But just another adventure in blogging.

dg

— Derrick Goold
11:08 am August 18th, 2009

Lagniappe. Don’t hear that one much from sportswriters! Nice writing.

It seems the MVP award is psychologically geared toward offense–especially since pitchers have the Cy Young Award. I know there have been pitchers who’ve won the MVP–most recently Eck, I believe–but in my opinion, it’s a tough sell.

— dairyman
11:13 am August 18th, 2009

Derrick, why is that no one ever adjusts for inflation when quoting these old signing bonuses? For example, Ankiel’s signing bonus is worth more than $3.3 mm in today’s dollars, and JD’s is worth over $4 mm. It just doesn’t make sense to do the comparisons without taking the time value of money into account.

— Ztakk
11:38 am August 18th, 2009

DG, how were the Cardinals 16 games over .500 on July 26, 2006 with a record of 52-42? That’s only 10 by my count.

— JKoch
11:40 am August 18th, 2009

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