Comm Top 21: Age-Old Question (Vote No. 4)
TOWER GROVE — Judging from some of the comments at the tails of the first three Bird Land Community Top 21 polls, one question continues to perplex many voters: What age is too aged to be a prospect?
There is no real answer.
The St. Louis Cardinals, as described by farm director Jeff Luhnow, have studied how high-end players — the top-notch, elite, standout prospects — reach the majors in their early 20s, and how they excel because of that. Colby Rasmus, who was 22 for most of this last season (his rookie season), fits that model. That trend, Luhnow has said before, is part of the reason why the organization adopted a more aggressive promotion approach a few seasons ago, and why young players Eduardo Sanchez, Richard Castillo, Daryl Jones and a few others were pushed up a level. Even some of the Cardinals’ international signings have been hastened into a short-season club to see how well they adjust to a more demanding level. (See Yunier Castillo and a couple others, as discussed in yesterday afternoon’s entry about the system’s depth at shortstop.)
The question presented in comments is about youth, it’s about the late twentysomethings, like David Freese.
A few of my colleagues believe that there is an age when a player’s prospect status is revoked. Once you’re able to rent a car, you’re no longer eligible to be a prospect.
It’s certainly possible to adopt that stance for the Comm Top 21, but there are several reasons against lopping a player’s eligibility off the moment he reaches 25 or 24 … or 23. The first reason is the Comm Top 21 strives to be comparable to the other rankings out there — so that you get a sense of how the Nation’s view of the prospects meshes with the industry’s view. The Baseball America guidelines for eligibility on its Top 30 are simple. Reading right from the instructions I received a month ago:
Anyone under contract to an organization who hasn’t exceeded the major-league rookie minimums of 130 at-bats or 50 innings is eligible. Don’t worry about service time, because that isn’t a consideration.
Age is something that is taken into consideration by each individual author, but it’s not a barrier to inclusion in the list. That hints at the second reason: Blocking. Sometimes, a player steeps for awhile in the minors because he blocked at the major-league level. Should that rob a deserving player of his prospect status if his performance has done nothing to lead to it? Freese will be 27 when he gets his first extended shot at the majors. He would have been 26 if not for injury, or not for Troy Glaus and Mark DeRosa, etc. Allen Craig is 25 and on the fringe of that prospect “age”, but if the Cardinals re-sign Matt Holliday it’s possible Craig will be another year older and still in the mix next season.
Mitchell Boggs is the lesson here.
A year ago at this time, there was an argument presented to me that Boggs should not be in the Top 30. The reasoning: He had been considered a prospect for so long and not yet made the majors. His shelf-life, essentially, had expired. My counter argument was that we should fight Prospect Fatigue, and if a player’s performance hasn’t merited ejection — and in this Boggs’ hadn’t — then why move a player off the list just when he’s on the brink of the majors? It seemed odd to de-list a player right when he was about to do what we’ve been writing about him doing for several years. Boggs ended up ranked No. 14.
Age can be seen through a similar prism. As mentioned in the comment section the other day, Chris Sabo was 26 when he won the Rookie of the Year Award for the Cincinnati Reds. He could rent a car, and yet it was still accurate to call him a prospect …
Age can be a factor. It seem inaccurate to use it as a guideline. But choose for yourself, in today’s poll. Youngster Shelby Miller took 45 percent of the vote yesterday to claim No. 3 over Craig, who received 30 percent of the vote. Not sure, in light of the comments made yesterday, if that makes him a favorite for No. 4, but his bat makes for an intriguing top-five candidate. Today’s poll features the addition of a first-round pick who could confront that age question a year from now, soon-to-be 24-year-old righty Adam Ottavino:
Click away:
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DANIEL DESCALSO, 2B: At the time of his promotion, Descalso was leading the Texas League in total bases and was considered by opposing managers a fine glove at his position. Descalso is out in the Arizona Fall League and is 5-for-12 so far. The lefthanded-hitting infielder has the balanced swing and sting of a batter who could hit for average with gap power. He may run into the occasional home run or two, but Descalso raised his total base, um, totals with doubles. The 23-year-old had 26 doubles in 73 games with Springfield. There he had a slash line of .323/.396/.531 and 51 RBIs. AGE: 23. STATS: Hit .299/.373/.459 overall with 45 of his 130 hits going for extra bases. Had 47 walks to 61 Ks this past season.
ALLEN CRAIG, LF: Simply, as one of the people helping craft the polls wrote, “results, results, results”. Side with results and Craig is the pick. Craig led the system in home runs and RBIs, and he had by far the best offensive season of any player in the Cardinals’ minor-leagues. His drawback, and everyone knows this by now, is he lacks a position. He’s moved from third base to first base and is now settled in the outfield. The Cardinals are encouraged by his play in the outfield, but whether that’s enough to get him a major-league crack next season is unsure. This much is clear: He’ll get a longer and more legitimate look than last spring, and last spring he was one of the Cardinals better hitters in Grapefruit League play. AGE: 25. STATS: .322 BA, .921 OPS, .547 SLG, 26 HR, 82 RBI.
TYLER GREENE, SS: What began in spring training, continued through the season as Greene had extended exposure to the majors and a starting/everyday role with Triple-A Memphis. Greene now projects as a utility infielder for the major-league bench in 2010, unless the Cardinals decide to put a lefthanded- or switch-hitting infielder on the bench ahead of him. Greene, No. 16 on the BA poll last season, is still eligible (he was drafted in 2005) for the prospect poll, and probably for the last time. His defense remains his plus-skill, but he improved enough offensively last season that the Cardinals think his power will remain without the wild, fishing swings that cost him production as a younger player. Is one of the true 20-20 players the Cardinals have in the system. AGE: 26. STATS: .291 BA, .851 OPS, 15 HR, 31 SB/3 CS, 42 RBIs in 89 games.
DARYL JONES, OF: If you go with precedence then Jones deserves a look. He has remained a high-profile and highly regarded prospect since he was drafted a few rounds after Rasmus. He was No. 7 in your poll last season and he ranked No. 7 in the BA Top 30. The caveat: Health. Jones pushed himself back from injury to participate in this year’s Futures Game at Busch Stadium, and then he spent the rest of the season trying to recover from tendinitis and knee trouble that robbed him of a big part of his game — speed. Jones did not improve up his breakout 2008, and he positions himself for a defining 2010 that will include his first taste of Triple-A baseball. AGE: 22. STATS: .278 BA, .360 OBP, .378 SLG, 7 SB, 50 runs in 80 games.
LANCE LYNN, RHP: In many ways the Allen Craig of the pitching ranks. Results. Results. Results. Though Lynn has a clear position. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound righthander has the stamp of durability, and that, in some corners, is a tool unto itself. Lynn pitched at three levels this past season, cruising up to Class AA and staying there. He’s got a sinking fastball, which instantly earns him cred, but he also doesn’t miss start, has the poise that comes from being a college pitcher at a strong program (Mike Bianco’s Ole Miss). If steady production and a known quantity steers your vote, Lynn is your candidate. AGE: 22. STATS: 11-4, 2.85 ERA, 124 K, 57 BB, 148 2/3 innnings.
EDUARDO SANCHEZ, RHP: Probably the breakout player of the year in the system. The reliever has a strong turn in Class AA, and he emerged as not only a setup possibility but a closer possibility. (There’s that line-crossing for one of the P’s — position.) Sanchez has a hard-boring fastball. The young Venezuelan with the slight build throws consistently at 95 mph and has been known to hit 96 mph or 97 mph. He has good movement on the fastball and he is always around the strike zone. Throw in a tight slider and Sanchez has both of the pitches needed to handle the role — and advance quickly. Relievers like him have leapfrogged from Class AA to the majors with success. Two recent examples from the Cardinals’ system: Kyle McClellan and Luke Gregerson. Getting him more experience and seeing him duplicate this year’s success would be the reason to give him the ninth in Triple-A. AGE: 20. STATS: 2-1 overall with 2.28 ERA and 13 saves, 82 Ks, 25 walks, 75 innings and a .174 batting average against.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Did you forget Ottovino?
And, first.
Age shouldn’t be a contributing factor, IMO. Results and ceiling should be however.
Rasmus was the top candidate in years past not because he was 19 or 20, but because his ceiling was high and he produced at the level he was at, ensuring that he be viewed as a ‘Can’t Miss’ talent. I don’t feel as though we have very many can’t miss types this go around so you have to look at other aspects. I voted for Jones this go around because I think he yields the highest combination of results plus ceiling, whereas Craig doesn’t have the ceiling but he does have the results.
Sam - That is the exact reason that age must be considered. A player who is older than the majority of his competition has an advantage. Therefore, the player’s age helps shed light on his ceiling. This is why you have a bunch of late 20’s guys who can rake at AAA. They have been around awhile, they are older than most of the guys and therefore they put up great stats at the AAA level (think Rico Washington). This performance does not make them a prospect.
That being said, Freese does not necessarily fit into that category. Although he is older, he is so because he played as a fifth year senior in college. However, there is another problem with the older prospect. It is generally held that a hitter’s best years are approximately from ages 27/28-31/32. If a young player is just breaking in at that time, then they are adjusting to ML pitching and essentially wasting their prime years. And if it took them that long to get there…then the ceiling must not be that high.
I have to disagree with DG’s use of Boggs as an example. Ptichers are a completely different animal. There is no generally accepted consensus on a pitcher’s timeline. They develop at different rates and have a wide variance in their peak years. Therefore, a pitcher’s age is much less important. I would say a better example would be John Gall.
I think age should be considered to an extent. Some players aren’t drafted until after they graduate college, meaning that they enter the organization at 22 or 23, depending on cut-off date in elementary school or college redshirt. That is how Freese came into professional baseball. He was drafted by the Padres the year he turned 23. He has barely been a professional for 4 years.
Age should really only be considered when you’ve hit the 5 or 6 year mark in an organization and no contributing factors (like a star in front of you at the Majors, i.e. Pujols) have led to it. For example, so you were drafted out of high school and at the age of 25 or 26, you still haven’t made the Majors yet. There is no super-star in front of you. In fact, the team is waiting for you to show any sign of “getting it.” You are not a prospect anymore. Not a journeyman yet, but not a prospect.
An example of still being a prospect would be if you were drafted at 18, and you’re a first baseman, who is worse than Chris Duncan on defense in the outfield. So, you are only a first baseman in an NL organization and the team has a super-star first baseman (i.e. Pujols or Howard) in front of you. You should still be a prospect because it isn’t your fault you haven’t gotten a chance yet.
That’s how I see the argument.
Oh, Lance Lynn needs more love!
Okay, I’m wimping out, but I see value in having 2 categories: immediate and long-term. Best immediate prospect? Freese. Long term? Shelby.
Could Freese become a bench player and Shelby a 20-game winner? Sure, but I’d slightly favor someone as a “better” prospect who is closer to helping the Big Club than one who has more years to get there, and thus has more uncertainty attached to him. The “can’t-miss” prospects who pan out are very few and far between…
jdog55 - The list of players like Freese who can hit at AAA at age 27 but who never make it in the big leagues is very long as well.
What category would Barden have fallen into this year? ROM and had he continued on with just rookie of the year type numbers, would he have been what is being described as a prospect or just a old rookie that finally made it at age 28.
I’d say a “prospect” is a player with talent just untested(tested meaning the 130 major league AB’s or innings for pitchers). Age shouldn’t factor in. And once tested with success or failure can no longer be considered as a prospect and move to another category. IMO
VOTE for Eduardo Sanchez. He will be to the Cardinals in 2010 what Francisco Rodriguez was to the Angels in 2002.
After a little research, I’ll change my mind on Freese. First of all he’s 26 not 27 and he was a young 26 during the season, turning that age on Apr 28th. As a young 25 year old with just 2 seasons of minor league ball and none higher than Adv A he hit around .300 with 26 HR’s and 91 RBI’s in just 464 ab’s at Memphis. Last year, a year in which he was deserving of a shot to be on the major league team had it not been for an injury. When he came back later in the year he hit .300 again with 12 HR’s and 48 RBI’s in just 227 ab’s showing that his production the previous year was no fluke. What it boils down to is this. He was 24 when he begain the 2008 season and turned 25 during the season, a season where he hit very well at AAA. So the statements that compare him to 27 year olds raking the ball at AAA are not fair.