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10.22.2009 9:32 am

Comm Top 21: Doorstep Prospects (Vote No. 6)

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — Judging by yesterday’s poll, there were many comments that indicated Blake Hawksworth belonged higher in the poll than No. 5, and the voting certainly validated that opinion. In his first appearance on the poll, Hawksworth won, taking 35 percent of only 446 votes cast, at last check. One of the reasons given for Hawksworth to have appeared sooner in the poll and, thus, rank as high as nine on the Bird Land Community Top 21 is … well, he’s viewed as a major-leaguer.

To be candid, that’s the problem with this year’s poll.

So many of the candidates for the top-10 or so positions have already been in the major leaguers, are expected to return to the majors leagues or are just about to settle into a role in the major leagues. Yes, that includes Hawksworth. But it also means Jaime Garcia, Tyler Greene, David Freese and possibly Allen Craig. Does Hawksworth belong higher in the poll? Well, I’ll consider suggestions. But also consider that when you look at the top five in the Comm Top 21, four of them could be with the Cardinals for at least part of the 2010 season. All of the trades the Cardinals made have turned prospect polls into a de facto list of the next arrivals.

Take a look at some previous top fives from the Baseball America polls, and how close those players were to the majors at the time of their ranking:

2009

  1. Colby Rasmus — on the doorstep
  2. Brett Wallace — Class AA
  3. Chris Perez — on the doorstep
  4. Jess Todd — Class AAA
  5. Bryan Anderson — Class AAA

2008

  1. Colby Rasmus — Class AAA
  2. Chris Perez — Class AAA
  3. Bryan Anderson — Class AA
  4. Brian Barton — Rule 5
  5. Bryan Anderson — Class AA

2007

  1. Colby Rasmus — Class AA
  2. Jaime Garcia — Class AAA
  3. Chris Perez — Class AA
  4. Blake Hawksworth — Class AAA
  5. Jon Jay — Class AA

And then the Comm Top 21 so far this season:

  1. Jaime Garcia — on the doorstep
  2. David Freese — on the doorstep
  3. Shelby Miller — Low-A
  4. Allen Craig — on the doorstep
  5. Blake Hawksworth — on the doorstep (or through the door, really)

The quotient of Doorstep Prospects has grown with each year, and is going to chock the top 10 this season. That is either a sign of a system that has nurtured its prospects and is now about to reap the benefits from years of cultivation, or … One that has traded away some of its higher-ceiling prospects and is now loaded with players who will appear in the majors — but how many will contribute? How many will stay? As we hit No. 6 in the poll, there are still a handful of players who could debut in the majors/stay in the majors this season still up for the vote. But the lower-level, high-ceiling prospects will start to sneak into the poll …

Who is the Cardinals’ No. 6 prospect?

View Results

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DANIEL DESCALSO, 2B: At the time of his promotion, Descalso was leading the Texas League in total bases and was considered by opposing managers a fine glove at his position. Descalso is out in the Arizona Fall League and is 5-for-12 so far. The lefthanded-hitting infielder has the balanced swing and sting of a batter who could hit for average with gap power. He may run into the occasional home run or two, but Descalso raised his total base, um, totals with doubles. The 23-year-old had 26 doubles in 73 games with Springfield. There he had a slash line of .323/.396/.531 and 51 RBIs. AGE: 23. STATS: Hit .299/.373/.459 overall with 45 of his 130 hits going for extra bases. Had 47 walks to 61 Ks this past season.

TYLER GREENE, SS: What began in spring training, continued through the season as Greene had extended exposure to the majors and a starting/everyday role with Triple-A Memphis. Greene now projects as a utility infielder for the major-league bench in 2010, unless the Cardinals decide to put a lefthanded- or switch-hitting infielder on the bench ahead of him. Greene, No. 16 on the BA poll last season, is still eligible (he was drafted in 2005) for the prospect poll, and probably for the last time. His defense remains his plus-skill, but he improved enough offensively last season that the Cardinals think his power will remain without the wild, fishing swings that cost him production as a younger player. Is one of the true 20-20 players the Cardinals have in the system. AGE: 26. STATS: .291 BA, .851 OPS, 15 HR, 31 SB/3 CS, 42 RBIs in 89 games.

DARYL JONES, OF: If you go with precedence then Jones deserves a look. He has remained a high-profile and highly regarded prospect since he was drafted a few rounds after Rasmus. He was No. 7 in your poll last season and he ranked No. 7 in the BA Top 30. The caveat: Health. Jones pushed himself back from injury to participate in this year’s Futures Game at Busch Stadium, and then he spent the rest of the season trying to recover from tendinitis and knee trouble that robbed him of a big part of his game — speed. Jones did not improve up his breakout 2008, and he positions himself for a defining 2010 that will include his first taste of Triple-A baseball. AGE: 22. STATS: .278 BA, .360 OBP, .378 SLG, 7 SB, 50 runs in 80 games.

LANCE LYNN, RHP: In many ways the Allen Craig of the pitching ranks. Results. Results. Results. Though Lynn has a clear position. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound righthander has the stamp of durability, and that, in some corners, is a tool unto itself. Lynn pitched at three levels this past season, cruising up to Class AA and staying there. He’s got a sinking fastball, which instantly earns him cred, but he also doesn’t miss start, has the poise that comes from being a college pitcher at a strong program (Mike Bianco’s Ole Miss). If steady production and a known quantity steers your vote, Lynn is your candidate. AGE: 22. STATS: 11-4, 2.85 ERA, 124 K, 57 BB, 148 2/3 innnings.

ADAM OTTAVINO, RHP: Was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2006 — 30th overall — and has sported one of the better arms in the system ever since. He has both power on his fastball and feel for several off-speed stuff. What he’s lacked is consistent command of said pitches, and much of that comes from the inability to consistently repeat his delivery. He has been groping for the mechanics that make him both comfortable and that he can repeat with every pitch. This past season, he gritted through several winless months before finding a toehold with the help of pitching coach Blaise Isley. Ottavino has the frame and strength that projects as a starter, and finally he had half a season that puts him on track back to be the prospect advertised. Consistency from start to start has to follow consistency pitch to pitch. AGE: 23. STATS: 7-12, 4.75 ERA, 119 Ks, 82 walks, 114 innings pitched.

FRANCISCO SAMUEL, RHP: Has one of the top power arms in the system, but is the personification of the difference between strike velocity and raw velocity. He can chuck it. He has been known to fire 98 mph, and I watched him throw consistently 96 mph, 97 mph in spring training. But how many of those pitches were strikes? When Samuel sides with consistent control over speed, he does dip into the 94 mph, 95 mph zone. Samuel has been used as closer and setup, and he has an easy delivery that he can repeat. That tells some scouts and coaches that the command will come, and not at the cost of his velocity. When that happens, then he’ll be more of a surefire late-inning relief prospect. AGE: 22. STATS: 59 strikeouts and 46 walks in 47 2/3 innings. Opponents hit .208 against him. He went 3-4, 5.66 ERA with 22 saves for Double-A Springfield.

EDUARDO SANCHEZ, RHP: Probably the breakout player of the year in the system. The reliever has a strong turn in Class AA, and he emerged as not only a setup possibility but a closer possibility. (There’s that line-crossing for one of the P’s — position.) Sanchez has a hard-boring fastball. The young Venezuelan with the slight build throws consistently at 95 mph and has been known to hit 96 mph or 97 mph. He has good movement on the fastball and he is always around the strike zone. Throw in a tight slider and Sanchez has both of the pitches needed to handle the role — and advance quickly. Relievers like him have leapfrogged from Class AA to the majors with success. Two recent examples from the Cardinals’ system: Kyle McClellan and Luke Gregerson. Getting him more experience and seeing him duplicate this year’s success would be the reason to give him the ninth in Triple-A. AGE: 20. STATS: 2-1 overall with 2.28 ERA and 13 saves, 82 Ks, 25 walks, 75 innings and a .174 batting average against.

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20 comments

Comments are closed.

I really think Lance Lynn needs to be looked at. I got to see him pitch in Springfield this year. He knows how to pitch to win games. He’s a big guy who throws that sinking fastball that Duncan likes and his numbers are pretty good.

— snoopycarmichael
9:56 am October 22nd, 2009

DG:
Don’t you think Sanchez could add some beef to his listed 155 lbs? He’s young and probably has potential to add more bulk, which could help his stamina in Aug/Sept

— bostonbird
10:01 am October 22nd, 2009

Tyler Henley deserves a thumbnail and spot on this poll for the next spot.

— stldrakelaw
10:38 am October 22nd, 2009

While this is really fun, and tough, given the improving Cardinal farm system, I really don’t think Shelby Miller deserves #3, only because the other guys are so much closer to appearing at Busch 3. Not dissing his talent or achievement this year, his time will come in 2 or 3 years if he’s as good as advertised. I think Jones or Craig would truly merit #3 spot on this list if you are looking at who is a prospect for the big club, given what they’ve managed to do at highest levels of minor leagues, and by that, I look at Springfield and Memphis.

— Firebrand
10:59 am October 22nd, 2009

Snoopy,

Starting to agree with you. I didn’t think Lance Lynn would make it out of the top five. I continue to be amazed at the trend in this year’s polls. Usually the constituency values “dream on” prospects over production. Not so this year. I can only guess that it’s reflective of the win-now moves by the organization.

Lynn, though, maybe the best blend of both left …

dg
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— Derrick Goold
11:09 am October 22nd, 2009

where’s the love for Lance Lynn?

— KyCardsGuy
11:10 am October 22nd, 2009

…and in the time it take me to type, there it is.

— KyCardsGuy
11:12 am October 22nd, 2009

Lance Lynn needs more love…still.

If he doesn’t win the #7 vote, I will kill three bunnies. I shall then spray paint “L. Lynn” on the first bunny, “For” on the second, and “#7″ on the third. You will find these bunnies on the front step of the PD’s office with a letter reading:

Lance Lynn should have been higher than 7. If he doesn’t win 7 on his own, the PD needs to push him over the top so he does win. If he doesn’t, squirrels go next.

I have spoken. :-)

— JKoch
11:38 am October 22nd, 2009

I was out of town the last few days and about spit up my airplane peanuts last night on the flight home when I saw Hawksworth was eligible for the prospect list, considering he spent much of the season with the Cards in a defined role and FINISHED the season with them. As a result, I would no longer consider him a “prospect.”

I could be swayed (but probably not) if Hawksworth will still be considered a rookie next year by MLB definition. If not, I don’t know how he can be considered anything but a MLB player. Does anyone know?

Thanks for the effort on this Derrick. Your blog is a must read.

— Darthrider
12:08 pm October 22nd, 2009

I’d have to say this was a odd year for prospects in the organization due to injuries on the major league club and alot of rookies given a peek at the majors. Showed how close and far away they are, plus they still had a winning record.

OT: Mr Goold once again you proved your worth on TV last night and by all appearances you rattled off stats with out the use of a tele-prompter.

A-

(should have wore a tie)

With Steve Phillips in hot water there is a opening for you! j/k

— James K
12:50 pm October 22nd, 2009

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