CREVE COEUR — It didn’t take long for the Bird Land Community Top 21 to throw its first curveball. Not that it’s a surprise lefthanded starter Jaime Garcia won the No. 1 spot in the readers’ rankings of St. Louis Cardinals’ prospects. It’s just wasn’t close.

That was unexpected.

Garcia pulled away from first-round fireballer Shelby Miller and had more than twice as many votes. As of last check — a few seconds ago — Garcia had received 441 of the 890 votes, or just about 50 percent. It’s an interesting straw poll of the fanbase. It would be difficult to argue that Garcia has more name recognition than Miller, because the latter, a prep high schooler out Texas taken in the first round of the 2009 draft, received the second largest bonus in Cardinals’ history ($2.9 million). Garcia, a 22nd-round pick in 2005, has the benefit of being around and being ranked before. It’s a push when it comes to Q-Rating.

So, what happened here?

It’s the age-old tussle between production vs. promise. Whenever you’re ranking prospects you inevitably have to lean to one side of the spectrum. We’ve discussed the Four P’s of prospect ranking before: Position. Proximity. Production. And Promise. Simply:

• Position: Key positions like starting pitcher, shortstop, center field, closer … get preference.
• Proximity: Nearness to the major leagues.
• Production: Synonym for another P — performance.
• Promise: Upside. Ceiling. Or, it’s substitute — potential.

If you were to ask around the Cardinals’ front offices — or any front office for that matter — who had the better promise between Garcia and Miller, the near-universal answer would be the prep righthander with the top-notch fastball and high ceiling. If you were to ask around those same cubicles who is closer to majors, the answer would, of course, be the lefty, who is likely to be in the majors next season. Both project — another P — as a No. 3, at least. Miller, to some, is a potential No. 1. Garcia gets talked about as a possible No. 2. And so on.

What I try to do when ranking the prospects for Baseball America is find the comfortable blend of the Four Ps. In the poll yesterday for No. 1, a majority of the readers have sided with Production and Proximity, apparently feeling that the Promise is close enough between Miller and Garcia not to tilt the poll.

It doesn’t get any more apparent for No. 2.

With Miller still in the mix, the poll for the second-best prospect in the system remains a clash of promise vs. production. Miller has the promise. David Freese, Allen Craig and Tyler Greene have the production. Daryl Jones and Eduardo Sanchez, the reliever and new to the poll, have a blend of both, but does either have enough to trump the others? If the poll in No. 1 is any indication, Miller has an edge — but it’s not much of one because the voters who went with Garcia are going to slide somewhere and they’ve already shown where they sit on the Four-P sliding scale.

Here’s the poll, and below it are little thumbnails on the players:

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ALLEN CRAIG, LF: Simply, as one of the people helping craft the polls wrote, “results, results, results”. Side with results and Craig is the pick. Craig led the system in home runs and RBIs, and he had by far the best offensive season of any player in the Cardinals’ minor-leagues. His drawback, and everyone knows this by now, is he lacks a position. He’s moved from third base to first base and is now settled in the outfield. The Cardinals are encouraged by his play in the outfield, but whether that’s enough to get him a major-league crack next season is unsure. This much is clear: He’ll get a longer and more legitimate look than last spring, and last spring he was one of the Cardinals better hitters in Grapefruit League play. AGE: 25. STATS: .322 BA, .921 OPS, .547 SLG, 26 HR, 82 RBI.

DAVID FREESE, 3B: His proximity to the majors puts him in the mix, though some will balk at his age. Freese was hampered by a foot injury in his bid to be a big-leaguer during spring training. Still, he made the opening day roster before a swift return to Triple-A. Freese returned after surgery and was a key part of Memphis’ postseason run. Freese had a Craig-like season in 2008. His glove is ready for the position, even if the Cardinals aren’t sure his bat is set for an everyday job in the majors. On this list, he may be as close to a sure-thing, opening-day Cardinal as any of the others mentioned. Even the next guy. AGE: 26. STATS: .313 BA, .551 SLG, 64 games, 12 HR, 48 RBIs.

TYLER GREENE, SS: What began in spring training, continued through the season as Greene had extended exposure to the majors and a starting/everyday role with Triple-A Memphis. Greene now projects as a utility infielder for the major-league bench in 2010, unless the Cardinals decide to put a lefthanded- or switch-hitting infielder on the bench ahead of him. Greene, No. 16 on the BA poll last season, is still eligible (he was drafted in 2005) for the prospect poll, and probably for the last time. His defense remains his plus-skill, but he improved enough offensively last season that the Cardinals think his power will remain without the wild, fishing swings that cost him production as a younger player. Is one of the true 20-20 players the Cardinals have in the system. AGE: 26. STATS: .291 BA, .851 OPS, 15 HR, 31 SB/3 CS, 42 RBIs in 89 games.

DARYL JONES, OF: If you go with precedence then Jones deserves a look. He has remained a high-profile and highly regarded prospect since he was drafted a few rounds after Rasmus. He was No. 7 in your poll last season and he ranked No. 7 in the BA Top 30. The caveat: Health. Jones pushed himself back from injury to participate in this year’s Futures Game at Busch Stadium, and then he spent the rest of the season trying to recover from tendinitis and knee trouble that robbed him of a big part of his game — speed. Jones did not improve up his breakout 2008, and he positions himself for a defining 2010 that will include his first taste of Triple-A baseball. AGE: 22. STATS: .278 BA, .360 OBP, .378 SLG, 7 SB, 50 runs in 80 games.

LANCE LYNN, RHP: In many ways the Allen Craig of the pitching ranks. Results. Results. Results. Though Lynn has a clear position. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound righthander has the stamp of durability, and that, in some corners, is a tool unto itself. Lynn pitched at three levels this past season, cruising up to Class AA and staying there. He’s got a sinking fastball, which instantly earns him cred, but he also doesn’t miss start, has the poise that comes from being a college pitcher at a strong program (Mike Bianco’s Ole Miss). If steady production and a known quantity steers your vote, Lynn is your candidate. AGE: 22. STATS: 11-4, 2.85 ERA, 124 K, 57 BB, 148 2/3 innnings.

SHELBY MILLER, RHP: Or perhaps you’re a promise vote, a hope voter and sheer high-ceiling potential voter. Miller hasn’t thrown many pitches as a pro, and he’ll get his first extended exposure this coming season. Still, the first-round pick has the rep, the scouting reports and the bonus of an elite prospect. The Cardinals don’t have many of those, and that could push Miller immediately to the top of the list — where he’ll likely stay Rasmus-style for several years. He’s a power-armed, Texas prep righthander. You do the math. AGE: 19. STATS: 2 starts, 3.0 innings pitched. Not much to go on.

EDUARDO SANCHEZ, RHP: Probably the breakout player of the year in the system. The reliever has a strong turn in Class AA, and he emerged as not only a setup possibility but a closer possibility. (There’s that line-crossing for one of the P’s — position.) Sanchez has a hard-boring fastball. The young Venezuelan with the slight build throws consistently at 95 mph and has been known to hit 96 mph or 97 mph. He has good movement on the fastball and he is always around the strike zone. Throw in a tight slider and Sanchez has both of the pitches needed to handle the role — and advance quickly. Relievers like him have leapfrogged from Class AA to the majors with success. Two recent examples from the Cardinals’ system: Kyle McClellan and Luke Gregerson. Getting him more experience and seeing him duplicate this year’s success would be the reason to give him the ninth in Triple-A. AGE: 20. STATS: 2-1 overall with 2.28 ERA and 13 saves, 82 Ks, 25 walks, 75 innings and a .174 batting average against.

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