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10.28.2009 8:39 am

Comm Top 21: Raising Arizona II (Vote No. 9)

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — In what probably was the closest vote yet in any Bird Land Community prospect poll, Eduardo Sanchez, the fireballer righthanded reliever, took 52 percent of the vote in the runoff and will be your No. 7 prospect on the Top 21 poll this year. Lance Lynn, the steady starter, will be No. 8. At 4 o’clock St. Louis time on Monday one vote separated the two.

So, I gave the poll another day to marinate (and, yes, to take a blog breather).

With two prospects pulled off the poll, that means two have to come on. We’re just about to leave the first mile-marker of any prospect poll — the top 10. And that means it’s likely that two of the seven prospects currently on the poll and the one who will be added tomorrow will complete the capital-T Top 10. As predicted, it’s a vastly different looking Top 10 than a year ago. Not as expected, the emphasis this year has been on proximity more than promise. Even the runoff vote had a feel that Sanchez was going to win because of the hype that he could be in the big-league bullpen as a contributor at some point in 2010.

Where better than to find the next two names for the poll than the proving ground for the next-wave of top prospects: The Arizona Fall League. It also provides an excuse to give another weekly update of how the St. Louis Cardinals’ participants are doing out in the desert:

  • Gary Daley Jr., RHP — 0-0, 15.19 ERA, 5 1/3 innings, 3 K, 3 W. Stung by a brutal seven-run 1/3 inning recently that inflate his ERA.
  • Scott Gorgen, RHP — 0-0, 6.23 ERA, 4 1/3 innings, 6 K, 3 W.
  • Mike Parisi, RHP — 0-1, 4.00 ERA, 9 innings, 6 K, 2 W. Continues to get the innings to build arm strength and feel after surgery. Will be more interesting how he is pitching toward the end of the league’s schedule.
  • Adam Reifer, RHP — 0-0, 15.43 ERA, 4 2/3 innings, 2 K, 5 W. There it is, in black and white. Lots of speed. Still working on the control. He’s like Francisco Samuel in that way, and Samuel may have the easier delivery and certainly has done it at a higher level.
  • Bryan Anderson, C — .300/.423/.400, 6-for-20, 5 RBI. Spoke to him the other day and he talked about how comfortable he is in the box and how the injured shoulder hasn’t been a problem at all. He is catching when he plays/starts.
  • Daniel Descalso, 2B — .222/.293/.250, 8-for-36. Could be gassed from racing to international play in Europe after the Triple-A season and now playing out West in the AFL. That’s a possible reason for slow start.
  • Daryl Jones, OF — .205/.404/.410. By far the most interesting line of the group. So he’s hitting .205, but he has 10 runs scored and nine walks against 10 strikeouts. That explains the .404 on-base percentage. He also has two home runs, and, most striking of all, he’s 6-for-7 on stolen bases. Knees seem to be fine.
  • Tyler Henley, OF –.269/.367/.462, 7-for-26. Three of Henley’s seven hits have gone for extra bases with two doubles and a home run.

The two joining the poll from that group will be Reifer, the power-armed reliever, and Henley, who had a Terry Evans like arrival in Class AA Springfield. The thumbnails on both players have been added below. Feel free to scroll down before clicking your vote in the poll:

Who is the Cardinals’ No. 9 prospect?

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***

DANIEL DESCALSO, 2B: At the time of his promotion, Descalso was leading the Texas League in total bases and was considered by opposing managers a fine glove at his position. The lefthanded-hitting infielder has the balanced swing and sting of a batter who could hit for average with gap power. He may run into the occasional home run or two, but Descalso raised his total base, um, totals with doubles. The 23-year-old had 26 doubles in 73 games with Springfield. There he had a slash line of .323/.396/.531 and 51 RBIs. AGE: 23. STATS: Hit .299/.373/.459 overall with 45 of his 130 hits going for extra bases. Had 47 walks to 61 Ks this past season.

TYLER GREENE, SS: What began in spring training, continued through the season as Greene had extended exposure to the majors and a starting/everyday role with Triple-A Memphis. Greene now projects as a utility infielder for the major-league bench in 2010, unless the Cardinals decide to put a lefthanded- or switch-hitting infielder on the bench ahead of him. Greene, No. 16 on the BA poll last season, is still eligible (he was drafted in 2005) for the prospect poll, and probably for the last time. His defense remains his plus-skill, but he improved enough offensively last season that the Cardinals think his power will remain without the wild, fishing swings that cost him production as a younger player. Is one of the true 20-20 players the Cardinals have in the system. AGE: 26. STATS: .291 BA, .851 OPS, 15 HR, 31 SB/3 CS, 42 RBIs in 89 games.

TYLER HENLEY, OF: The former Rice University standout, taken in the eighth round of the 2007 draft, was probably lost in the traffic jam of outfielders the Cardinals had last season, but he emerged in Class AA this season with a solid line, especially for a leadoff hitter/high-lineup hitter who can also all three positions in the field. He’s listed as a RF in the Arizona Fall League, but has also shown the ability to handle center field. In Springfield, he had 60 strikeouts and 40 walks to go with his other numbers (below). He doesn’t have one stat or one tool that sings out, but the chorus of thins that he does makes him worthy of a spot in the rankings this season, perhaps a top-half spot. AGE: 24. STATS: .303 BA, .367 OBP, .482 SLG, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 62 runs.

JON JAY, OF: The lefthanded hitting outfielder refined his swing to limit — or almost eliminate — the helicopter-hands timing mechanism that some scouts see as a defect in an otherwise smooth stroke. Jay struggled slow this past season, but found his feel later in the year as the polished approach at the plate became more natural, more effective. He hit .326 in the final month of the regular season with Class AAA Memphis, and some of that was buoyed by his .356/.378/.544 line in August. Some still stand by their belief that Jay has a high-average swing set to be a .300 hitter in the majors. His closing kick supported that, and he’s off in Venezuela this winter to better his standing. AGE: 24. STATS: .281/.338/.394, 23 doubles, 64 strikeouts and 34 walks with 505 at-bats.

ADAM OTTAVINO, RHP: Was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2006 — 30th overall — and has sported one of the better arms in the system ever since. He has both power on his fastball and feel for several off-speed stuff. What he’s lacked is consistent command of said pitches, and much of that comes from the inability to consistently repeat his delivery. He has been groping for the mechanics that make him both comfortable and that he can repeat with every pitch. This past season, he gritted through several winless months before finding a toehold with the help of pitching coach Blaise Isley. Ottavino has the frame and strength that projects as a starter, and finally he had half a season that puts him on track back to be the prospect advertised. Consistency from start to start has to follow consistency pitch to pitch. AGE: 23. STATS: 7-12, 4.75 ERA, 119 Ks, 82 walks, 114 innings pitched.

ADAM REIFER, RHP: Sometimes the relievers that burn the hottest, also burn out the fastest. Mark McCormick, for example, has superb velocity, but cannot stay healthy and cannot keep his delivery together long enough to be consistent. Hard to rank him on velocity alone. Reifer will fight that trend, and seems to have the ability to stay on track. His command stats aren’t great in the AFL, but it’s early and he’s had a full season, so you want context and not just raw numbers. There are scouts who like Reifer’s potential, and they see enough in his late-inning/closer appearances with High-A Palm Beach this past season to think he can continue improving while maintaining that role. He’ll have to be in more command to stay at closer as he climbs the organizational ladder. AGE: 23. STATS: 4-7, 21 saves, 4.47 ERA, 54 Ks, 24 BBs, 48 1/3 innings in 54 games.

FRANCISCO SAMUEL, RHP: Has one of the top power arms in the system, but is the personification of the difference between strike velocity and raw velocity. He can chuck it. He has been known to fire 98 mph, and I watched him throw consistently 96 mph, 97 mph in spring training. But how many of those pitches were strikes? When Samuel sides with consistent control over speed, he does dip into the 94 mph, 95 mph zone. Samuel has been used as closer and setup, and he has an easy delivery that he can repeat. That tells some scouts and coaches that the command will come, and not at the cost of his velocity. When that happens, then he’ll be more of a surefire late-inning relief prospect. AGE: 22. STATS: 59 strikeouts and 46 walks in 47 2/3 innings. Opponents hit .208 against him. He went 3-4, 5.66 ERA with 22 saves for Double-A Springfield.

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14 comments

It might be nice to include the list so far (even though it pains me to see Freese so over-ranked). I voted for Descalso. Henley would be my number 10.

— Todd @ Personal Finance Playbook
9:05 am October 28th, 2009

Derrick, what are your thoughts on Robert Stock? Seems like he could have a lot of upside as a catcher that did pretty well in Johnson City after being our 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft. He also has a live arm where he almost has a “back-up” plan of being a pitcher if the catching thing doesn’t work out. I think it’s also a plus that he played 3 seasons at USC yet is only 19.

— Pete
9:26 am October 28th, 2009

DG:
At what point do you begin veering from proximity back to promise. It doesn’t seem likely that most of the players on the remaining poll would be called up to the MLB next season. Also, what’s become of our Latin American investments? I see Sanchez, but very little in terms of prospects being produced from our LA academies. I thought by now, we would see more prospects from this pipeline.
What about Hearne, Additon, Matt Carpenter, Dickson and Adams. Do any of these stack up to the players left on the poll?

— bostonbird
10:08 am October 28th, 2009

Descalso here for me since he plays a more premium position and is still age appropriate for his level. Henley is next for me.

I really like Descalso’s defense at 2B. He is a double play turning machine. As for Henley, he is like the Kozma of the outfield. No outstanding tools but pretty good in all phases.

Not sure what to do about Tyler Greene. He still has the tools but at his age it is high time those tools started to translate into results. While they have started to at AAA, he looked overmatched at the plate at the big league level.

— stldrakelaw
10:13 am October 28th, 2009

Descalso, Descalso, Descalso.

Hit substantially better in AA at age 22 than T. Greene hit in AAA at age 25. So there’s that. Also, Descalso’s defense at 2nd base appears to be at *least* above average, if not elite (tons of DP’s, loads of assists, few errors).

Descalso looks for all the world like Skip’s natural successor at the keystone in 2011 or 12.

— Bob
10:28 am October 28th, 2009

If you go Descalso over T. Greene, how do you reconcile the different positions? Does age alone make the difference, or does the level they’ve played at also play a part here? Second base vs. shortstop does seem to be a big difference defensively, especially when both are fine enough with the glove. Just wondering, because these are the questions folks who rank are certainly asking themselves …

Heck, I’ve been asked them.

— Derrick Goold
10:49 am October 28th, 2009

It seems we have reached a second level of prospects. No one left seems to be destined to play a big role in the majors, but many still give you that glimmer of hope, that they might do something yet.

— El Hombre
12:00 pm October 28th, 2009

DG,

To answer your question, I voted for Daniel over Tyler b/c Tyler has had exposure to the majors and seems to more firmly project as a bench player while Daniel still projects as a starter. Now that may change down the line, but as of today, a starting 2B has more value than a utility infielder.

— The General
12:52 pm October 28th, 2009

Haven’t voted yet, but probably is at the point in the list where it would be worth knowing who is already voted in for those who want to submit “others” for consideration:

1. Jaime Garcia
2. David Freese
3. Shelby Miller
4. Allan Craig
5. Blake Hawksworth
6. Daryl Jones
7. Eduardo Sanchez
8. Lance Lynn

— Michael Scriven
1:36 pm October 28th, 2009

If Blake Hawksworth, born in 1983 is already on the list, and Daniel Descalso is getting votes as a 2nd baseman of the future which is fair, then I would submit that the voters at least consider Jarrett Hoffpauir, 3 months younger than Hawksworth and playing well for AAA Memphis yet again.

2009: AAA Memphis: 358 ABs, .291BA, .357OBP, .486SLG, 39XBH, 14 of those HRs, 35BB/28K.
2008: AAA Memphis: 410 ABs, .273BA, .352OBP, .383SLG, 36XBH, 4 of those HRs, 49BB/45K.

For a direct comparison, here are the AA to AAA seasons for Hoffpauir & Descalso:

Daniel Descalso 2009:at age 22:
AA Springfield: 288 ABs, .323BA, .396OBP, .531SLG, 39XBH, 8 of those HRs, 31BB/41K.
AAA Memphis: 150 ABs, .253BA, .327OBP, .320SLG, 6XBH, 2 of those HRs, 16BB/21K.

Jarreff Hoffpauir 2007 at age 23-24:
AA Springfield: 203 ABs, .345BA, .420OBP, .527SLG, 23XBH, 7 of those HRs, 26BB/18K.
AAA Memphis: 190 ABs, .300BA, .394OBP, .416SLG, 14XBH, 4 of those HRs, 29BB/21K.

In no way am I trying to diminish what Descalso is doing, quite the opposite, I’m looking at what he is doing now and what Hoffpauir has already done and ask you to please remember Jarrett Hoffpauir for the prospects listing.

— Michael Scriven
1:57 pm October 28th, 2009

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